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The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Questions: Pollen traits (e.g., size, wall thickness, number of apertures) have been suggested to be relevant in terms of pollination mechanisms and the ability of the male gametophyte to withstand desiccation. We examined the spatiotemporal distribution of pollen traits related to dispersal (ornamentation and dispersal unit) and desiccation tolerance (wall thickness, presence of furrows and pores and pollen size). Specifically, we address two questions: how are the pollen traits distributed in relation to different levels of aridity? And, how did the pollen trait composition change with changing past environmental conditions? Location: Laurel forests of La Gomera and Tenerife (Canary Islands). Methods: We used pollen rain from 19 forest plots on an elevational gradient of 1050 m and all laurel forest types (cold, dry, humid and ridge crest) to quantify pollen trait composition using community‐weighted means. In addition, we used fossil pollen to examine the composition of pollen traits over 9600 years in response to known intervals of regional past climate change. Results: Our results demonstrated increased prevalence of desiccation tolerance‐related pollen traits over drier areas of the laurel forest distribution. We also found increased prevalence of rich pollen grain ornamentation in the core of the laurel forest distribution. Holocene pollen functional diversity increased during a trend towards drier conditions as did the proportion of pollen grains with apertures and thicker walls to indicate desiccation tolerance. Conclusions: Our study provides the first step towards understanding the role of pollen traits when quantifying the dynamics of different plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Palaeoecological data provide an essential long‐term perspective of ecological change and its drivers in oceanic islands. However, analysing the effects of multi‐scalar and potentially co‐occurring disturbances is particularly challenging in dry islands. Here, we aim to identify the ecological consequences of the integrated impacts of a regional drying trend, volcanic eruptions and human mass migrations in a spatially constrained environment—a small, dry oceanic island in Macaronesia. Location: Brava Island, Republic of Cabo Verde. Taxa: Terrestrial vegetation and fungi. Methods: We use palaeoecological analyses applied to a caldera soil profile that dates back to 9700 cal yr BP (calibrated years before the present). Analyses include pollen (vegetation history), non‐pollen palynomorphs (changes in fern and fungal communities), grain‐size distribution, loss‐on‐ignition and geochemistry (sedimentology and erosion regimes), microscopic tephra shards (volcanic ash deposition) and charcoal (fire regime). Results: A regional drying trend after c. 4000 cal yr BP caused increased erosion but had limited immediate impacts on highland grassland vegetation. The expansion of fern‐rich woody scrubland was contemporaneous with significant deposition of volcanic ash and erosion between 1800 and 650 cal yr BP. About 300 cal yr BP, exogenous plants expanded, grazing and fires increased, and there was a decrease of native vegetation cover. Main conclusions: Throughout the Holocene, highland vegetation in Brava was characterized by the presence of open landscapes dominated by herbaceous species (e.g. Poaceae, Forsskaolea), with some presence of woody native taxa (e.g. Ficus, Dodonaea). A regional drying trend was a driver of erosion since the Mid Holocene but did not have an immediate influence on highland vegetation. Tephra deposition is a possible driver of vegetation change. Inter‐island mass migration after volcanic events in Fogo Island c. 1680 CE potentially triggered land use change and intensification, causing a reduction of native vegetation in Brava. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Biogeographical regions (realms) reflect patterns of co‐distributed species (biotas) across space. Their boundaries are set by dispersal barriers and difficulties of establishment in new locations. We extend new methods to assess these two contributions by quantifying the degree to which realms intergrade across geographical space and the contributions of individual species to the delineation of those realms. As our example, we focus on Wallace's Line, the most enigmatic partitioning of the world's faunas, where climate is thought to have little effect and the majority of dispersal barriers are short water gaps. Location: Indo‐Pacific. Time period: Present day. Major taxa studied: Birds and mammals. Methods: Terrestrial bird and mammal assemblages were established in 1‐degree map cells using range maps. Assemblage structure was modelled using latent Dirichlet allocation, a continuous clustering method that simultaneously establishes the likely partitioning of species into biotas and the contribution of biotas to each map cell. Phylogenetic trees were used to assess the contribution of deep historical processes. Spatial segregation between biotas was evaluated across time and space in comparison with numerous hard realm boundaries drawn by various workers. Results: We demonstrate that the strong turnover between biotas coincides with the north‐western extent of the region not connected to the mainland during the Pleistocene, although the Philippines contains mixed contributions. At deeper taxonomic levels, Sulawesi and the Philippines shift to primarily Asian affinities, resulting from transgressions of a few Asian‐derived lineages across the line. The partitioning of biotas sometimes produces fragmented regions that reflect habitat. Differences in partitions between birds and mammals reflect differences in dispersal ability. Main conclusions: Permanent water barriers have selected for a dispersive archipelago fauna, excluded by an incumbent continental fauna on the Sunda shelf. Deep history, such as plate movements, is relatively unimportant in setting boundaries. The analysis implies a temporally dynamic interaction between a species' intrinsic dispersal ability, physiographic barriers, and recent climate change in the genesis of Earth's biotas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Knowledge of the drivers of ecosystem changes in the past is key to understanding present ecosystem responses to changes in climate, fire regimes and anthropogenic impacts. Northern Hemisphere‐focussed studies suggest that climate and human activities drove turnover during the Holocene in temperate ecosystems. Various drivers have been invoked to explain changes in Southern Hemisphere temperate vegetation, but the region lacks a quantitative assessment of these drivers. To better understand the regional drivers of past diversity, we present a quantitative meta‐analysis study of turnover and richness during the lateglacial and Holocene in Australian temperate ecosystems. Location: South‐east Australia (Tasmania, Bass Strait, SE mainland). Methods: We conducted a meta‐analysis study of 24 fossil pollen records across south‐east Australian temperate ecosystems, applying an empirical turnover threshold to fossil records to identify periods of major turnover for the first time in Australia. We tested pollen richness as a proxy for vegetation richness to estimate past richness and applied this to fossil pollen data. The resulting reconstructions were compared to independent records of climate, sea‐level change and fire through generalized linear modelling. Results and conclusion: Our results show changes in available moisture and sea level drove turnover and richness in most parts of SE Australia in the past, explaining up to c. 97% deviance. However, fire mainly drove turnover in Bass Strait. Our richness reconstructions also support the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, suggesting that high biodiversity was partially maintained by anthropogenic‐managed fire regimes. While temperature change is considered key to Northern Hemisphere palaeodiversity, past turnover and richness in Southern Hemisphere temperate ecosystems responded mainly to moisture availability and sea‐level change (considering its role in modulating regional oceanic climate). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) holds a particular type of neotropical savanna characterized by the local occurrence of morichales (Mauritia palm swamps), in a climate apparently more suitable for rain forests. We present a paleoecological analysis of the last millennia of Lake Chonita (4°39′N–61°0′W, 884m elevation), based on biological and physico-chemical proxies. Savannas dominated the region during the last millennia, but a significant vegetation replacement occurred in recent times. The site was covered by a treeless savanna with nearby rainforests from 3640 to 2180cal yr BP. Water levels were higher than today until about 2800cal yr BP. Forests retreated since about 2180cal yr BP onwards, likely influenced by a higher fire incidence that facilitated a dramatic expansion of morichales. The simultaneous appearance of charcoal particles and Mauritia pollen around 2000cal yr BP supports the potential pyrophilous nature of this palm and the importance of fire for its recent expansion. The whole picture suggests human settlements similar to today – in which fire is an essential element – since around 2000yr ago. Therefore, present-day southern Gran Sabana landscapes seem to have been the result of the synergy between biogeographical, climatic and anthropogenic factors, mostly fire. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The previously recorded vegetation constancy during most of the Holocene, atop some summits of the Guayana tabular mountains (or tepuis), led to the hypotheses of either environmental stability or site insensitivity. As high-mountain biomes are considered to be especially well suited for recording past environmental changes, a palynological study on the uppermost summit of the Chimantá massif was designed to test its suitability for these purposes. A peat sequence was obtained spanning the last ~13.0cal kyr BP, but an acceptable resolution for paleoecological reconstruction is available only for the last ~4000years. Around 4.3cal kyr BP, the modern vegetation was established and has remained virtually unchanged until today; minor paleoenvironmental changes recorded in other sequences around 2.5cal kyr BP were not detected here. The main paleoclimatic trends are in good agreement with other neotropical records, especially from Lake Valencia and the Cariaco Basin. It is concluded that high-altitude tepuian sites are useful to record paleoenvironmental changes of moderate to high intensity but once a dense vegetation cover is established, gentle shifts remain hidden due to the capacity of plant communities to absorb the changes. The best sites for paleoecological research atop the tepuis are those lying on or near altitudinal ecotones, especially between the meadows and the paramoid shrublands (~2200m elevation). Sites within the meadow domain, as most well-studied so far, are relatively insensitive to Holocene paleoenvironmental changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Long-term palaeoecological records are needed to test ecological hypotheses involving time, as short-term observations are of insufficient duration to capture natural variability. In this paper, we review the published palaeoecological evidence for the neotropical Gran Sabana (GS) region, to record the vegetation dynamics and evaluate the potential effects of natural climatic and anthropogenic (notably fire) drivers of change. The time period considered (last 13,000 years) covers major global climate changes and the arrival of humans in the region. The specific points addressed are climate–vegetation equilibrium, reversibility of vegetation changes, the origin of extant biodiversity and endemism patterns and biodiversity conservation in the face of global warming. Vegetation dynamics is reconstructed by pollen analysis and fire incidence is deduced from microscopic charcoal records. Palaeoclimatic inferences are derived from global and regional records using independent physico-chemical evidence to avoid circular reasoning. After analyzing all the long-term records available from both GS uplands and highlands, we conclude that: (1) Upland vegetation (mostly treeless savannas and savanna–forest mosaics, with occasional Mauritia palm swamps) is not in equilibrium with the dominant climates, but largely conditioned by burning practices; (2) a hypothetical natural or “original” vegetation type for these uplands has not been possible to identify due to continuous changes in both climate and human activities during the last 13,000 years; (3) at the time scale studied (millennial), the shift from forest to savanna is abrupt and irreversible due to the existence of tipping points, no matter the cause (natural or anthropogenic); (4) on the contrary, the shift from savanna to palm swamps is reversible at centennial time scales; (5) some of the reconstructed past vegetation types have no modern analogues owing to the individual species response to environmental shifts, leading to variations in community composition; (6) extant biodiversity and endemism patterns are not the result of a long history of topographical isolation, as previously proposed but, rather, the consequence of the action of climatic and palaeogeographic variations; (7) the projected global warming will likely exacerbate the expansion of upland savannas by favouring positive fire-climate feedbacks; (8) in the highlands, extinction by habitat loss will likely affect biodiversity but to a less extent that prognosticated by models based only on present-day climatic features; (9) future highland communities will likely be different to present ones due to the prevalence of individual species responses to global warming; and (10) conservation strategies at individual species level, rather than at community level, are enriched by long-term palaeoecological studies analyzed here. None of these conclusions would have been possible to derive from short-term neoecological observations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

São Tomé (Gulf of Guinea, Central Africa) is a 854 km2 tropical island that had a pivotal role in early European colonial expansion through the Atlantic between the 15th and 16th centuries. Historical sources suggest that native vegetation has been heavily impacted since human arrival (1470 CE) due to monoculture economies and the introduction of mammals and plants, some of which now have established wild populations. The Afromontane forest of São Tomé, located above 800 m.a.sl., is particularly rich in endemic plant species and has remained relatively unaffected by direct human impacts. Here, we explore how environmental change influenced this forest through the study of a sedimentary sequence from the volcanic crater of Lagoa Amélia (1340 m a.s.l.), a palustrine system located at the boundary between submontane (800–1400 m a.s.l.) and mist forest (above 1400 m a.s.l.). We used fossil pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, sedimentology and charcoal to determine forest dynamics from the Late Pleistocene to the present. From 14,000 to 12,500 cal yr BP the forest was dominated by taxa from higher altitudes, adapted to cooler and drier climates (e.g. Afrocarpus mannii trees and Psychotria nubicola). After 12,500 cal yr BP, a potential uphill migration was identified by an increase in taxa like the trees Symphonia globulifera and Craterispermum cerinanthum. From 11,200 cal yr BP through the rest of the Holocene taxa from lower altitudes became dominant (e.g. Prunus africana , Polyscia s, and Sabicea) , except at c. 8500 cal yr BP when rapid cooling led to forest opening. Charcoal showed that fires were frequent during the Late Pleistocene (14,000 to 11,200 cal yr BP), becoming rare during the Holocene until anthropogenic fires started at c. 220 cal yr BP. Other recent anthropogenic impacts detected in Lagoa Amélia included the appearance of pollen of introduced plant species (e.g., Cestrum), and the increase in pollen of economically important species (Elaeis guineensis , Zea mays) and in fungal spores related to introduced herbivores. Our results reveal that climate changed the altitudinal distribution of the Afromontane forest in São Tomé during the Late Pleistocene, as observed on the African continent, and that this ecosystem was also strongly impacted by human arrival, through fire, farming, and introduced species. • We assess how climatic changes and humans influenced Afromontane forest around the Lagoa Amélia volcanic crater. • We document Late Pleistocene uphill migration of forest taxa and the occurrence of natural forest fires • During the Holocene taxa from lower altitudes became dominant and fires became rare. • We detect recent human impacts (200 cal yr BP-present) through fire and the introduction of plant and animals. • Comparison with mainland records suggests that island Afromontane forest long-term shifts were analogue to continental ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]