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• Thermal discomfort in a log house was assessed using a calibrated model. • Effective passive overheating prevention actions were identified for future climate. • Natural ventilation was the best-performing measure in reducing future overheating. • Building-related measures are of secondary importance under free-run operation. • Possibilities for future-proofing log houses are presented. This study aimed to identify the most effective passive design measures to prevent overheating in a log house in a temperate climate. The study was conducted with a calibrated thermal model under a future climate projection (SRES A2 scenario) utilising an EN 16798–1 adaptive comfort model for the building operated under free-run mode during summer. The effects of six building-related and three organisational measures on the projected future thermal comfort in the studied log house were evaluated. During 2011–2040 and 2041–2070, thermal insulation and thermal mass paired with natural ventilation with or without shading were among the best-performing combinations. During 2071–2100, three of the six best-performing combinations were thermal insulation and thermal mass paired with natural ventilation with or without shading. Comparing the first and the last periods, the most effective organisational measure reduced the operative temperature by an average of 0.35 or 0.34 °C in the first two periods and by 0.36 or 0.33 °C in the third period. By outlining the potential effectiveness of specific measures in preventing overheating discomfort under climate change conditions, the findings significantly contribute to climate change adaptation of log houses and buildings in general. These findings can be used as design guidelines for future buildings and to formulate future building regulations as well as a decision-making support for policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of passive measures on heating and cooling was assessed using MLR. • A bioclimatic potential analysis is helpful for future-proofing of single-family homes. • The opaque envelope U-value was the most relevant for the total and heating energy use. • The window area was the most relevant for the cooling energy use in present and future. • The relevance diagrams of passive parameters for the energy use were introduced. In the early phases of building design, it is essential to quantify the relevance of passive design measures in order to assure the desired thermal performance of buildings throughout their lifespan. In the present research work, the authors investigated the relevance of the selected passive design measures for heating and cooling energy use of single-family detached buildings at five European locations. To this end, a multiple linear regression analysis was performed, and least-squares estimates were used to identify the most relevant passive design measures under current and three future periods. The statistical analysis showed that the importance of passive design measures would change under the projected global warming effects. In general, the most relevant for the heating energy use of the analysed building models is the opaque envelope U value. Besides effective shading, the most relevant parameter affecting the cooling energy use is the window-to-floor ratio. Furthermore, relevance diagrams for the influence of passive design parameters on the resulting energy use under the climate change scenario and specific U values of the opaque envelope were defined. Building designers and policymakers can use them as design-support tool to find appropriate ways of converting the number of unknowns in future climate into information for designers and decision-makers to assure low vulnerability of the built environment to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]