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Relict permafrost presents an ideal opportunity to understand the impacts of climatic warming on the ground thermal regime since it is characterized by mean annual ground temperature close to 0 °C and relatively thin permafrost. The long-term and continuous observations of permafrost thermal state and climate background are of great importance to reveal the links between the energy balance on hourly to annual timescales, to evaluate the variations of permafrost thermal state over multi-annual periods and to validate the remote sensing dataset. Until now there are few data available in relict permafrost regions although those data are important to understand the impacts of climate changes on permafrost especially in the boundary regions between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. In this study, we present 11 years of meteorological and soil data in a relict permafrost site of the Mahan Mountain on the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The meteorological data are comprised of air and ground surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, shortwave and longwave downward and upward radiation, water vapor pressure, and precipitation on half-an-hour timescale. The active layer data include daily soil temperature and soil moisture at five different depths. The permafrost data consist of ground temperature at twenty different depths up to 28.4 m. The high-quality and long-term datasets are expected to serve as accurate forcing data in land surface models and evaluate remote-sensing products for a broader geoscientific community. The datasets are available from the National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center (https://doi.org/10.11888/Cryos.tpdc.271838, Wu and Xie, 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive understanding of the occurred changes of permafrost, including the changes of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT), on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) is critical to project permafrost changes due to climate change. Here, we use statistical and machine learning (ML) modeling approaches to simulate the present and future changes of MAGT and ALT in the permafrost regions of the QTP. The results show that the combination of statistical and ML method is reliable to simulate the MAGT and ALT, with the root‐mean‐square error of 0.53°C and 0.69 m for the MAGT and ALT, respectively. The results show that the present (2000–2015) permafrost area on the QTP is 1.04 × 106 km2 (0.80–1.28 × 106 km2), and the average MAGT and ALT are −1.35 ± 0.42°C and 2.3 ± 0.60 m, respectively. According to the classification system of permafrost stability, 37.3% of the QTP permafrost is suffering from the risk of disappearance. In the future (2061–2080), the near‐surface permafrost area will shrink significantly under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). It is predicted that the permafrost area will be reduced to 42% of the present area under RCP8.5. Overall, the future changes of MAGT and ALT are pronounced and region‐specific. As a result, the combined statistical method with ML requires less parameters and input variables for simulation permafrost thermal regimes and could present an efficient way to figure out the response of permafrost to climatic changes on the QTP. Key Points: The combined statistical method with machine learning is efficient to obtain the thermal regime of permafrost on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP)The present permafrost area on the QTP is ∼1.04 × 106 km2, and the average mean annual ground temperature and active layer thickness are −1.35 ± 0.42°C and 2.3 ± 0.60 m, respectivelyThe future changes of permafrost are projected to be pronounced due to climate change, but region‐specific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has undergone degradation as a result of recent climate change. This may alter the thermo‐hydrological processes and unlock soil organic carbon, and thereby affect local hydrological, ecological, and climatic systems. The relationships between permafrost and climate change have received extensive attention, and in this paper we review climate change for permafrost regions of the QTP over the past 30 years. We summarize the current state and changes in permafrost distribution and thickness, ground temperature, and ground ice conditions. We focus on changes in permafrost thermal state and in active‐layer thickness (ALT). Possible future changes in ground temperature and ALT are also discussed. Finally, we discuss the changes in hydrological processes and to ecosystems caused by permafrost degradation. Air temperature and ground temperature in the permafrost regions of the QTP have increased from 1980 to 2018, and the active layer has been thickening at a rate of 19.5 cm per decade. The response of permafrost to climate change is not as fast as in some reports, and permafrost degradation is slower than projected by models that do not account for conditions deep in permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil temperature plays a key role in hydro-thermal processes in environments and is a critical variable linking surface structure to soil processes. There is a need for more accurate temperature simulation models, particularly in Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP). In this study, a model was developed for the simulation of hourly soil surface temperatures with air temperatures. The model incorporated the thermal properties of the soil, vegetation cover, solar radiation, and water flux density and utilized field data collected from Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP). The model was used to simulate the thermal regime at soil depths of 5 cm, 10 cm and 20 cm and results were compared with those from previous models and with experimental measurements of ground temperature at two different locations. The analysis showed that the newly developed model provided better estimates of observed field temperatures, with an average mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the normalized standard error (NSEE) of 1.17 °C, 1.30 °C and 13.84 %, 0.41 °C, 0.49 °C and 5.45 %, 0.13 °C, 0.18 °C and 2.23 % at 5 cm, 10 cm and 20 cm depths, respectively. These findings provide a useful reference for simulating soil temperature and may be incorporated into other ecosystem models requiring soil temperature as an input variable for modeling permafrost changes under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the ground surface temperature (GST) records from 16 meteorological stations, which are located in or adjacent to permafrost regions on the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), are analysed using Mann-Kendal test and Sen's slope estimate methods. We revealed that the GSTs have shown statistically significant warming. On average, mean annual ground surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.60 °C decade−1 over the period of 1980-2007, which is more pronounced than the increase of mean annual air temperature on the plateau. The winter ground surface warming is especially prominent, which is similar to the seasonal trends in changes of air temperature. As important parameters to assess the changes of ground thermal regime in cold regions, surface freezing and thawing indices were also studied. The nonparametric statistic test and estimate indicate that surface freezing and thawing indices both show significant variations (−111.2 and 125.0 °C d decade−1, respectively) on the central QTP. The intensive ground surface warming is responsible for the concurrent increase in permafrost temperatures at the long-term observation sites on the plateau. The close correlations between ground surface and permafrost temperatures indicate that the dramatic ground surface warming could have significant influence on the change of permafrost thermal regime in the study region. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Changes in soil nutrient availability attributed to climate change and associated permafrost degradation have been reported in several ecosystems. However, little is known about the changes of soil nutrient availability in alpine grassland ecosystems. Based on a comprehensive dataset and random forest models, we investigated soil available nutrients changes and their relationships with environmental factors for the top 10 cm soils across Tibetan grassland between the 1980s and 2010s. During this period, topsoil available nitrogen stocks increased significantly by 24%, while available phosphorus and potassium stocks decreased significantly by 3% and 23%, respectively. Topsoil nutrient availability dynamics varied substantially among vegetation types. Initial nutrient stocks explained the largest proportions of available nutrients changes, though climate, permafrost, vegetation, soil properties, and their interactions also had significant contributions. The increasing rate of active layer thickness was negatively related to soil available nitrogen dynamics but did not significantly change available phosphorus and potassium, indicating that the increase in the annual depth of surface thaw of the permafrost was associated with an increase in soil nitrogen availability but no significant changes in available phosphorus and potassium. These results suggest that the Tibetan alpine grassland ecosystems may shift from nitrogen-limited to phosphorus or potassium-limited in the future. Highlights • Long-term changes in soil nutrient availability across Tibetan grassland were examined. • Soil nutrient availability dynamics varied considerably under different vegetation types. • Initial nutrients contents primarily regulate soil nutrient availability dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air and soil temperatures are important factors that contribute to hydro-thermal processes and ecosystem dynamics in permafrost regions. However, there is little research regarding soil thermal dynamics during freeze-thaw processes in permafrost regions with thermal orbits on the Tibetan Plateau. Thermal orbits can provide simplified illustrations of the relationships between air and ground temperatures. This paper presents a new quantitative analysis for thermal orbits by combining the characteristics of ellipse and linear regression theories. A sensibility analysis of thermal orbits was conducted with different air and ground temperatures and vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thermal orbit regression slopes and intercepts had variations in characteristics between air and ground temperatures at different depths. More specifically, both air and ground temperatures showed homologous variation with increasing depth. This type of analysis is important for a better understanding of permafrost thermal properties as they relate to soil moisture, climate change, and vegetation effects in permafrost regions on the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]