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Dryland vegetation is influenced by biotic and abiotic land surface template (LST) conditions and precipitation (PPT), such that enhanced vegetation responses to periods of high PPT may be shaped by multiple factors. High PPT stochasticity in the Chihuahuan Desert suggests that enhanced responses across broad geographic areas are improbable. Yet, multiyear wet periods may homogenize PPT patterns, interact with favorable LST conditions, and in this way produce enhanced responses. In contrast, periods containing multiple extreme high PPT pulse events could overwhelm LST influences, suggesting a divergence in how climate change could influence vegetation by altering PPT periods. Using a suite of stacked remote sensing and LST datasets from the 1980s to the present, we evaluated PPT-LST-Vegetation relationships across this region and tested the hypothesis that enhanced vegetation responses would be initiated by high PPT, but that LST favorability would underlie response magnitude, producing geographic differences between wet periods. We focused on two multiyear wet periods; one of above average, regionally distributed PPT (1990-1993) and a second with locally distributed PPT that contained two extreme wet pulses (2006-2008). 1990-1993 had regional vegetation responses that were correlated with soil properties. 2006-2008 had higher vegetation responses over a smaller area that were correlated primarily with PPT and secondarily to soil properties. Within the overlapping PPT area of both periods, enhanced vegetation responses occurred in similar locations. Thus, LST favorability underlied the geographic pattern of vegetation responses, whereas PPT initiated the response and controlled response area and maximum response magnitude. Multiyear periods provide foresight on the differing impacts that directional changes in mean climate and changes in extreme PPT pulses could have in drylands. Our study shows that future vegetation responses during wet periods will be tied to LST favorability, yet will be shaped by the pattern and magnitude of multiyear PPT events., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change will result in reduced soil water availability in much of the world either due to changes in precipitation or increased temperature and evapotranspiration. How communities of mites and nematodes may respond to changes in moisture availability is not well known, yet these organisms play important roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling processes. We determined how communities of these organisms respond to changes in moisture availability and whether common patterns occur along fine-scale gradients of soil moisture within four individual ecosystem types (mesic, xeric and arid grasslands and a polar desert) located in the western United States and Antarctica, as well as across a cross-ecosystem moisture gradient (CEMG) of all four ecosystems considered together. An elevation transect of three sampling plots was monitored within each ecosystem and soil samples were collected from these plots and from existing experimental precipitation manipulations within each ecosystem once in fall of 2009 and three times each in 2010 and 2011. Mites and nematodes were sorted to trophic groups and analyzed to determine community responses to changes in soil moisture availability. We found that while both mites and nematodes increased with available soil moisture across the CEMG, within individual ecosystems, increases in soil moisture resulted in decreases to nematode communities at all but the arid grassland ecosystem; mites showed no responses at any ecosystem. In addition, we found changes in proportional abundances of mite and nematode trophic groups as soil moisture increased within individual ecosystems, which may result in shifts within soil food webs with important consequences for ecosystem functioning. We suggest that communities of soil animals at local scales may respond predictably to changes in moisture availability regardless of ecosystem type but that additional factors, such as climate variability, vegetation composition, and soil properties may influence this relationship over larger scales., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological model for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently occurred in North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia and Australia, resulting in major effects on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon balance and food security. Here we compare the functional response of above-ground net primary production to contrasting hydroclimatic periods in the late twentieth century (1975-1998), and drier, warmer conditions in the early twenty-first century (2000-2009) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We find a common ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE(e): above-ground net primary production/evapotranspiration) across biomes ranging from grassland to forest that indicates an intrinsic system sensitivity to water availability across rainfall regimes, regardless of hydroclimatic conditions. We found higher WUE(e) in drier years that increased significantly with drought to a maximum WUE(e) across all biomes; and a minimum native state in wetter years that was common across hydroclimatic periods. This indicates biome-scale resilience to the interannual variability associated with the early twenty-first century drought--that is, the capacity to tolerate low, annual precipitation and to respond to subsequent periods of favourable water balance. These findings provide a conceptual model of ecosystem properties at the decadal scale applicable to the widespread altered hydroclimatic conditions that are predicted for later this century. Understanding the hydroclimatic threshold that will break down ecosystem resilience and alter maximum WUE(e) may allow us to predict land-surface consequences as large regions become more arid, starting with water-limited, low-productivity grasslands.

Long-term observations and experiments in diverse drylands reveal how ecosystems and services are responding to climate change. To develop generalities about climate change impacts at dryland sites, we compared broadscale patterns in climate and synthesized primary production responses among the eight terrestrial, nonforested sites of the United States Long-Term Ecological Research (US LTER) Network located in temperate (Southwest and Midwest) and polar (Arctic and Antarctic) regions. All sites experienced warming in recent decades, whereas drought varied regionally with multidecadal phases. Multiple years of wet or dry conditions had larger effects than single years on primary production. Droughts, floods, and wildfires altered resource availability and restructured plant communities, with greater impacts on primary production than warming alone. During severe regional droughts, air pollution from wildfire and dust events peaked. Studies at US LTER drylands over more than 40 years demonstrate reciprocal links and feedbacks among dryland ecosystems, climate-driven disturbance events, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasive perennial grass Eragrostis lehmanniana has expanded rapidly throughout the Sonoran Desert (SD) while remaining sparse and patchily distributed in the neighboring Chihuahuan Desert (CD). As temperatures and patterns in precipitation change, identifying the drivers limiting spread in the CD is needed. Our objectives were (1) to identify the climatic and edaphic factors limiting recruitment of E. lehmanniana throughout the CD and (2) to predict the edaphic and climatic locations in the CD where this species is expected to have higher probabilities of recruitment under future climatic conditions. Recruitment was simulated at 57 locations throughout the CD with a daily, multilayer soil water model (SOILWAT) that was parameterized and tested to develop recruitment parameters for E. lehmanniana using long‐term data from research stations in the SD and CD. Logistic regression was used to predict recruitment across the CD using climate and soil factors to create a map of simulated recruitment under current and alternative climate scenarios. Simulated recruitment under current climate was low for most of the CD. However, localized areas with high probabilities (>0.8) occurred along the western transition between the CD and the SD, and in the southern extent of the CD. In general, the CD climate is too cool and dry for rapid and widespread invasion. However, increases to temperature and precipitation are likely to increase recruitment success. Interactions among soil, temperature, and precipitation were important to increases in recruitment of E. lehmanniana and are expected to lead to heterogeneous increases in abundance as climate continues to change. This patchy increase in abundance will result in changes in its geographic distribution that will make predictions in the future challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands is a global phenomenon that is associated with land degradation via xerification, which replaces grasses with shrubs and bare soil patches. It remains uncertain how the global processes of WPE and climate change may combine to impact water availability for ecosystems. Using a process-based model constrained by watershed observations, our results suggest that both xerification and climate change augment groundwater recharge by increasing channel transmission losses at the expense of plant available water. Conversion from grasslands to shrublands without creating additional bare soil, however, reduces transmission losses. Model simulations considering both WPE and climate change are used to assess their relative roles in a late 21st century condition. Results indicate that changes in focused channel recharge are determined primarily by the WPE pathway. As a result, WPE should be given consideration when assessing the vulnerability of groundwater aquifers to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of changes in precipitation associated with climate change, and ecosystem responses are also uncertain. Multiyear periods of above‐ and below‐average rainfall may foretell consequences of changes in rainfall regime. We compiled long‐term aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation (PPT) data for eight North American grasslands, and quantified relationships between ANPP and PPT at each site, and in 1–3 year periods of above‐ and below‐average rainfall for mesic, semiarid cool, and semiarid warm grassland types. Our objective was to improve understanding of ANPP dynamics associated with changing climatic conditions by contrasting PPT–ANPP relationships in above‐ and below‐average PPT years to those that occurred during sequences of multiple above‐ and below‐average years. We found differences in PPT–ANPP relationships in above‐ and below‐average years compared to long‐term site averages, and variation in ANPP not explained by PPT totals that likely are attributed to legacy effects. The correlation between ANPP and current‐ and prior‐year conditions changed from year to year throughout multiyear periods, with some legacy effects declining, and new responses emerging. Thus, ANPP in a given year was influenced by sequences of conditions that varied across grassland types and climates. Most importantly, the influence of prior‐year ANPP often increased with the length of multiyear periods, whereas the influence of the amount of current‐year PPT declined. Although the mechanisms by which a directional change in the frequency of above‐ and below‐average years imposes a persistent change in grassland ANPP require further investigation, our results emphasize the importance of legacy effects on productivity for sequences of above‐ vs. below‐average years, and illustrate the utility of long‐term data to examine these patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In arid ecosystems, current-year precipitation often explains only a small proportion of annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We hypothesized that lags in the response of ecosystems to changes in water availability explain this low explanatory power, and that lags result from legacies from transitions from dry to wet years or the reverse. We explored five hypotheses regarding the magnitude of legacies, two possible mechanisms, and the differential effect of previous dry or wet years on the legacy magnitude. We used a three-year manipulative experiment with five levels of rainfall in the first two years (-80% and -50% reduced annual precipitation (PPT), ambient, +50% and +80% increased PPT), and reversed treatments in year 3. Legacies of previous two years, which were dry or wet, accounted for a large fraction (20%) of interannual variability in production on year 3. Legacies in ANPP were similar in absolute value for both types of precipitation transitions, and their magnitude was a function of the difference between previous and current-year precipitation. Tiller density accounted for 40% of legacy variability, while nitrogen and carry-over water availability showed no effect. Understanding responses to changes in interannual precipitation will assist in assessing ecosystem responses to climate change-induced increases in precipitation variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our objective was to determine if long-term increases in precipitation can maintain grasslands susceptible to desertification, and initiate a reversal of historic regime shifts on desertified shrublands. Perennial grass production and species richness in a multi-year wet period were hypothesized to be greater than expected based on precipitation in a sequence of dry years. These responses were expected to differ for grasslands and shrublands with different dominant species and topo-edaphic properties. Long-term trends in desertification were documented using vegetation maps beginning in 1858, 1915, 1928, and 1998). These trends were compared with herbaceous and woody species responses to a sequence of dry (1994-2003) and wet years (2004-2008) for two grassland (uplands, playas) and three desertified shrubland types (honey mesquite, creosotebush, tarbush) in the Chihuahuan Desert. Analyses showed that both types of grasslands decreased in spatial extent since 1858 whereas areas dominated by mesquite or creosotebush increased. Production of upland grasslands in the wet period was greater than expected based on responses during the dry period whereas the relationships between species richness and precipitation was the same for both periods. Precipitation was not important to responses in playa grasslands in either period. For all ecosystem types, the production response in wet years primarily was an increase in herbaceous plants, and the most pronounced responses occurred on sandy sites (upland grasslands, mesquite shrubland). Results suggest that multiple wet years are needed to initiate a sequence of grass establishment and survival processes that can maintain upland grasslands without management inputs and lead to a state change reversal in desertified shrublands. Restoration strategies need to take advantage of opportunities provided by future climates while recognizing the importance of ecosystem type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In drylands, most studies of extreme precipitation events examine effects of individual years or short-term events, yet multiyear periods (>3 y) are expected to have larger impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to take advantage of a sequence of multiple long-term (4-y) periods (dry, wet, average) that occurred naturally within a 26-y time frame to examine responses of plant species richness to extreme rainfall in grasslands and shrublands of the Chihuahuan Desert. Our hypothesis was that richness would be related to rainfall amount, and similar in periods with similar amounts of rainfall. Breakpoint analyses of water-year precipitation showed five sequential periods (1993–2018): AVG1 (mean = 22 cm/y), DRY1 (mean = 18 cm/y), WET (mean = 30 cm/y), DRY2 (mean = 18 cm/y), and AVG2 (mean = 24 cm/y). Detailed analyses revealed changes in daily and seasonal metrics of precipitation over the course of the study: the amount of nongrowing season precipitation decreased since 1993, and summer growing season precipitation increased through time with a corresponding increase in frequency of extreme rainfall events. This increase in summer rainfall could explain the general loss in C3 species after the wet period at most locations through time. Total species richness in the wet period was among the highest in the five periods, with the deepest average storm depth in the summer and the fewest long duration (>45 day) dry intervals across all seasons. For other species-ecosystem combinations, two richness patterns were observed. Compared to AVG2, AVG1 had lower water-year precipitation yet more C3 species in upland grasslands, creosotebush, and mesquite shrublands, and more C4 perennial grasses in tarbush shrublands. AVG1 also had larger amounts of rainfall and more large storms in fall and spring with higher mean depths of storm and lower mean dry-day interval compared with AVG2. While DRY1 and DRY2 had the same amount of precipitation, DRY2 had more C4 species than DRY1 in creosote bush shrublands, and DRY1 had more C3 species than DRY2 in upland grasslands. Most differences in rainfall between these periods occurred in the summer. Legacy effects were observed for C3 species in upland grasslands where no significant change in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET compared with a 41% loss of species from the WET to DRY2 period. The opposite asymmetry pattern was found for C4 subdominant species in creosote bush and mesquite shrublands, where an increase in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET followed by no change in richness from WET to DRY2. Our results show that understanding plant biodiversity of Chihuahuan Desert landscapes as precipitation continues to change will require daily and seasonal metrics of rainfall within a wet-dry period paradigm, as well as a consideration of species traits (photosynthetic pathways, lifespan, morphologies). Understanding these relationships can provide insights into predicting species-level dynamics in drylands under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological studies are critical for understanding the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to respond to changes in climate. Monitoring seasonal transitions at the species or community level across large areas is challenging and expensive. One approach for lowering costs is to identify phenological guilds—groups of species that exhibit similar timing of seasonal transitions—and limit monitoring to a smaller number of species within a guild. In this study, we evaluated 23 consecutive years of monthly observations of individual species at 15 long‐term study sites at the Jornada Basin USDA‐Long‐Term Ecological Research site to identify patterns in the onset of three phenophases—leaf‐out, flower, and fruit—of 16 widely occurring species in the arid southwestern United States and to investigate the existence of phenological guilds. We conducted univariate analyses of distributions in the timing of leaf, flower, and fruit production across time and space and multivariate cluster analysis of the time series to identify coherent groups of species–site instances that exhibit coherence in timing of phenophase onsets (i.e., guilds). The six species of C3 shrubs demonstrated greater consistency in timing of all phenophases relative to C4 grasses. Further, we found that in all species, leaf‐out occurred prior to the onset of the summer monsoon rains. Cluster analysis revealed six groups of species–site observations demonstrating high within‐year concordance in timing of leaf‐out and first fruit across variable site conditions and rainfall years. The six groups for timing of first fruit differed from those for first leaf in that they exhibited greater multi‐species membership and within‐year variability in timing. We propose that use of phenological guilds can improve the efficiency of ecosystem monitoring, predictive models of ecosystem cues driving phenological events, and land management outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]