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The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6-9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics-including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs-that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.

A better understanding of greenhouse gas surface sources and sinks is required in order to address the global challenge of climate change. Spaceborne remote estimations of greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations can offer the global coverage that is necessary to improve the constraint on their fluxes, thus enabling a better monitoring of anthropogenic emissions. In this work, we introduce the Adaptable 4A Inversion (5AI) inverse scheme that aims to retrieve geophysical parameters from any remote sensing observation. The algorithm is based on Bayesian optimal estimation relying on the Operational version of the Automatized Atmospheric Absorption Atlas (4A/OP) radiative transfer forward model along with the Gestion et Étude des Informations Spectroscopiques Atmosphériques: Management and Study of Atmospheric Spectroscopic Information (GEISA) spectroscopic database. Here, the 5AI scheme is applied to retrieve the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) from measurements performed by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission, and uses an empirically corrected absorption continuum in the O2 A-band. For airmasses below 3.0, XCO2 retrievals successfully capture the latitudinal variations of CO2, as well as its seasonal cycle and long-term increasing trend. Comparison with ground-based observations from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) yields a difference of 1.33 ± 1.29 ppm, which is similar to the standard deviation of the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) official products. We show that the systematic differences between 5AI and ACOS results can be fully removed by adding an average calculated - observed spectral residual correction to OCO-2 measurements, thus underlying the critical sensitivity of retrieval results to forward modelling. These comparisons show the reliability of 5AI as a Bayesian optimal estimation implementation that is easily adaptable to any instrument designed to retrieve column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of greenhouse gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is likely to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to ice-sheet mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR. However, predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and internal climate variability (ICV) that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of ICV on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. Here we quantify the effects of ICV on the AIS evolutions by employing climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice-sheet model. We find that ICV of climate fields among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses, and that most of the effect is due to atmospheric variability compared to oceanic. Our results show that ICV can cause about 0.08 m differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean AIS contribution of 0.38–0.45 m. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate forcing fields as the forcing in an ice-sheet model significantly delays retreat of the West AIS for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07–0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. This study highlights the need to take internal climate variability into account in assessing uncertainty associated with the AIS contribution in sea-level rise projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice front calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum-mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica and for later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future behavior of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea-level rise. Understanding the current state of theWAIS is therefore of great interest. The WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers, which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature, and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice-sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (a) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (b) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (c) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A gravitationally self-consistent, global sea level model with 3D viscoelastic Earth structure is interactively coupled to a 3D dynamic ice sheet model, and the coupled model is applied to simulate the evolution of ice cover, sea level changes, and solid Earth deformation over the last deglaciation, from 40 ka to the modern. The results show that incorporating lateral variations in Earth's structure across Antarctica yields local differences in the modeled ice history and introduces significant uncertainty in estimates of both relative sea level change and modern crustal motions through the last deglaciation. An analysis indicates that the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to modern records of sea level change and solid Earth deformation in regions of Antarctica underlain by low mantle viscosity may be more sensitive to ice loading during the late Holocene than across the last deglaciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice-front velocities and calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel, and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica, and later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most severe extinction in Earth history occurred during a time of extreme climate change, caused in part by a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. Isotopic measurements of siderite occurring in paleosols during intervals of global warming suggest high-latitude depletions in δ 18 O of precipitation, often attributed to an amplified hydrologic cycle. Here, Late Permian and Early Triassic paleosol siderite from Alaska, Antarctica, eastern Australia, Siberia, and South Africa indicate similar or greater meridional gradients in siderite δ 18 O compared to other past warm intervals. An isotope-tracer-enabled version of the Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems (GENESIS) general circulation model (GCM) was used to compare to siderite δ 18 O data. The model, when deriving siderite δ 18 O at a specified paleoatmospheric CO 2 concentration of 12.7 × the preindustrial atmospheric level (PAL), matches a small subset of relatively less depleted high-latitude siderites but does not produce the conditions necessary to explain the most depleted siderite δ 18 O values. Siderite has been thought to record mean annual precipitation δ 18 O, though this study suggests that many may not. A seasonal bias, where siderite growth occurs in the summertime in wetlands that receive most of their recharge from melting winter precipitation, may be responsible. GENESIS indicates soil moisture recharge during the spring ahead of the rainy season for high-latitude Permo-Triassic (PT) siderite localities that reach below freezing winter temperatures. Drainage from high altitude regions throughout the growing season may also be responsible. Biological cloud feedbacks and monsoon-related amount effects are not likely the cause for low siderite δ 18 O because the enrichment of water vapor δ 18 O associated with warming is too significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is key for informative projections of future sea level rise. However, both the relevant observations and the model output are high-dimensional binary spatial data; existing computer model calibration methods are unable to handle such data. Here we present a novel calibration method for computer models whose output is in the form of binary spatial data. To mitigate the computational and inferential challenges posed by our approach, we apply a generalized principal component based dimension reduction method. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we calibrate the PSU3D-ICE model by comparing the output from a 499-member perturbed-parameter ensemble with observations from the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet. Our methods help rigorously characterize the parameter uncertainty even in the presence of systematic data-model discrepancies and dependence in the errors. Our method also helps inform environmental risk analyses by contributing to improved projections of sea level rise from the ice sheets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing the historical behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is essential for understanding and predicting climatic interactions, ice sheet sensitivities, and sea level contributions. Furthermore, to interpret such reconstructions with any degree of confidence, meaningful uncertainty estimates are required. Working toward this goal, this article presents results from a large-ensemble data-constrained study of Antarctic evolution over the Last Glacial cycle. Ice sheet chronologies have been generated using a 3-D glacial systems model that includes sheet/stream/shelf flow; a parametrized basal drag coefficient (accounting for sub-grid topographic roughness, sediment likelihood, and systematic model-to-observation thickness misfits); a sub-grid grounding-line flux parametrization; a visco-elastic bedrock response component; parametrized climate forcing; separate shelf and tidewater calving treatments; and a physically-motivated, empirically derived, sub-shelf melt component. There are 31 ensemble parameters to capture uncertainties in the glacial cycle climate, mass-balance processes, and ice dynamics. Once generated, the ensemble of model runs is constrained using a suite of observational data (including constraints on relative sea level, past ice thickness and grounding line retreat data-points, as well as present-day ice volumes and configuration) and an evaluation methodology that produces a misfit-to-observations score for each run. Assuming variants of a Gaussian error model, the scores are used to generate probability distributions for the past evolution of the ice sheet. In our ensemble-based analysis the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of Antarctic ice volume occurs at ∼25–24 ka. The LGM ice volume excess relative to present-day is likely between 5.6 and 14.3 m equivalent sea level (mESL), and with less confidence >10 mESL. There is little change in the grounded ice volume from 24 ka until 17–16 ka at which time widespread deglaciation commences. The Ross and Weddell Sea sectors are the largest sources of ice mass loss. The major period of grounding line retreat in the Weddell Sea sector, resulting in the present-day Ronne–Filchner shelf system, occurs after 10 ka; the grounding line in the Ross Sea sector start its major retreat phase after 12 ka. There is no significant contribution (<1.8 mESL) to meltwater pulse 1a. During the Eemian, the modelled Antarctic Ice Sheet has a minimal ice volume at 114 ka contributing ∼2 mESL relative to present-day. The mass loss is principally due to a major retreat of the grounding line in the Siple Coast sector of the Ross Sea. We present standard deviation plots of the ensemble results for present day and at the LGM. These plots highlight geographic areas that would most benefit from additional constraint and therefore offer priorities and guidance for future field campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS-31) is one of the major interglacials of the early Pleistocene ~1.08 to 1.06Ma. Data from proximal sediment cores around several sectors of Antarctica indicate strong sea surface warming and ice shelf and sea ice retreat. Benthic deep-sea-core δ18O values at this time are some of the lowest of the Pleistocene, indicating both deep sea warming and reduced global ice volume. A coeval alignment of orbital parameters produces one of the strongest high-latitude summer insolation anomalies of the last several million years. Here we use a 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to simulate the evolution of Antarctic ice sheets through the event, and a global climate model to simulate temperatures and sea ice during peak Antarctic warmth. The ice model predicts nearly complete collapse and subsequent recovery of marine ice in West Antarctica, and the ice and climate model results agree well with proximal sediment core data in the Ross Embayment recovered by the ANDRILL and Cape Roberts drilling projects. The dominant forcing is found to be variations in sub-ice-shelf oceanic melting, with insignificant surface melting of terrestrial ice flanks even during peak warmth. Implications are noted in light of other observations and theories of Pliocene–Pleistocene Antarctic ice sheet variability that do involve surface melt. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS-31) is one of the major interglacials of the early Pleistocene ~1.08 to 1.06Ma. Data from proximal sediment cores around several sectors of Antarctica indicate strong sea surface warming and ice shelf and sea ice retreat. Benthic deep-sea-core δ18O values at this time are some of the lowest of the Pleistocene, indicating both deep sea warming and reduced global ice volume. A coeval alignment of orbital parameters produces one of the strongest high-latitude summer insolation anomalies of the last several million years. Here we use a 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to simulate the evolution of Antarctic ice sheets through the event, and a global climate model to simulate temperatures and sea ice during peak Antarctic warmth. The ice model predicts nearly complete collapse and subsequent recovery of marine ice in West Antarctica, and the ice and climate model results agree well with proximal sediment core data in the Ross Embayment recovered by the ANDRILL and Cape Roberts drilling projects. The dominant forcing is found to be variations in sub-ice-shelf oceanic melting, with insignificant surface melting of terrestrial ice flanks even during peak warmth. Implications are noted in light of other observations and theories of Pliocene–Pleistocene Antarctic ice sheet variability that do involve surface melt. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article discusses several ice sheet-climate models including energy balance models (EBM), Earth models of intermediate complexity (EMIC), and general circulation models (GCM). It states that EBM's simple diffusive heat transport only captures limited variations in air temperature and offers no information on precipitation changes. It says that EMIC allows longer coupled ice sheet integration than GCM, but it is unclear whether its atmospheric dynamics are enough for ice-age problems.

Abstract: Stagnation of the terminal region of a glacier occurs in response to sufficiently large and rapid climatic warming, so the presence of stagnation deposits provides quantitative information on the climate change that forced retreat. Here we use a simple flow-line glacier model to investigate the relationship between stagnation, climate forcing and aspects of the glacier bed. For climatic warming greater than the threshold to cause stagnation, larger or faster warming events cause longer regions of a glacier to stagnate. Smaller or slower warming episodes, below the threshold for stagnation, cause retreat while active flow persists along the entire glacier length. The threshold for stagnation depends not only on the climatic forcing but also on many other aspects of the glacier, with stagnation favored by factors including a lower mean bed slope with greater roughness. Quantitative determination of the climatic forcing consistent with the occurrence or absence of stagnation deposits requires that these site-specific characteristics be incorporated in modeling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Discusses a study which investigated the effects of vegetation feedbacks on climate change due to doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide. Experimental design and coupling method; Effects of vegetation interactivity on global average quantities; Kinds of vegetation changes and feedbacks; Summary and conclusions.

The Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) project has chosen to conduct high resolution data-model comparisons for the Arctic region at 21 and 10 (calendar) ka BP. The model simulations for 21, 10, and 0 ka BP were conducted with the GENESIS 2.0 GCM. The 10 ka BP simulation was coupled to the EVE vegetation model. The primary boundary conditions differing from present at 21 ka BP were the northern hemisphere ice sheets and lower CO2, and at 10 ka BP were the orbital insolation and smaller northern hemisphere ice sheets. The purpose of this article is to discuss the hydrological consequences of these simulations. At the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP) the large ice sheets over North America and Eurasia and the lower CO2 levels produced a colder climate than present, with less precipitation throughout the Arctic, except where circulation was altered by the ice sheets. At 10 ka BP greater summer insolation resulted in a warmer and wetter Beringia, but conditions remained cold and dry in the north Atlantic sector, in the vicinity of the remnant ice sheets. Less winter insolation at 10 ka BP resulted in colder and drier conditions throughout the Arctic. Precipitation - evaporation generally correlated with precipitation except where changes in the surface type (ice sheets, vegetation at 10 ka BP, or sea level at 21 ka BP) caused large changes in the evaporation rate. The primary hydrological differences (from present) at 21 and 10 ka BP correlated with the temperature differences, which were a direct result of the large-scale boundary condition changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have underscored the importance of terrestrial ecosystems as an integral component of the Earth’s climate system. This realization has already led to efforts to link simple equilibrium vegetation models with Atmospheric General Circulation Models through iterative coupling procedures. While these linked models have pointed to several possible climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms, they have been limited by two shortcomings: (i) they only consider the equilibrium response of vegetation to shifting climatic conditions and therefore cannot be used to explore transient interactions between climate and vegetation; and (ii) the representations of vegetation processes and land-atmosphere exchange processes are still treated by two separate models and, as a result, may contain physical or ecological inconsistencies. Here we present, as a proof concept, a more tightly integrated framework for simulating global climate and vegetation interactions. The prototype coupled model consists of the GENESIS (version 2) Atmospheric General Circulation Model and the IBIS (version 1) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The two models are directly coupled through a common treatment of land surface and ecophysiological processes, which is used to calculate the energy, water, carbon, and momentum fluxes between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere. On one side of the interface, GENESIS simulates the physics and general circulation of the atmosphere. On the other side, IBIS predicts transient changes in the vegetation structure through changes in the carbon balance and competition among plants within terrestrial ecosystems. As an initial test of this modelling framework, we perform a 30 year simulation in which the coupled model is supplied with modern CO2 concentrations, observed ocean temperatures, and modern insolation. In this exploratory study, we run the GENESIS atmospheric model at relatively coarse horizontal resolution (4.5° latitude... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic ice sheet – storing ∼27 million cubic kilometres of ice – has the potential to contribute greatly to future sea level rise; yet its past evolution and sensitivity to long-term climatic drivers remain poorly understood and constrained. In particular, a long-standing debate questions whether Antarctic climate and ice volume respond mostly to changes in global sea level and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations or to local insolation changes. So far, long-term Antarctic simulations have used proxy-based parameterizations of climatic drivers, presuming that external forcings are synchronous and spatially uniform. Here for the first time we use a transient, three-dimensional climate simulation over the last eight glacial cycles to drive an Antarctic ice sheet model. We show that the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet was mostly driven by CO 2 and sea level forcing with a period of about 100,000 yr, synchronizing both hemispheres. However, on precessional time scales, local insolation forcing drives additional mass loss during periods of high sea level and CO 2 , enhancing the Antarctic interglacial and putting northern and southern ice sheet variability temporarily out of phase. In our simulations, partial collapses of the West Antarctic ice sheet during warm interglacials are only simulated with unrealistically large Southern Ocean subsurface warming exceeding ∼4 °C. Overall, our results further elucidate the complex interplay of global and local forcings in driving Late Quaternary Antarctic ice sheet evolution, and the unique and overlooked role of precession therein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ a coupled model for ice-sheet dynamics and Maxwell viscoelastic solid-Earth dynamics, including a gravitationally consistent description of sea level. With this model, we study the influence of the solid Earth on the future evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Starting from steady-state conditions close to the present-day configuration of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we apply different atmospheric and oceanic forcings and solid-Earth rheologies in order to analyse the retreat of the WAIS. Climate forcing is the primary control on the occurrence of WAIS collapse. For moderate climate forcing and weak solid-Earth rheologies, however, we find that the relative sea level (RSL) fall associated with the viscoelastic solid-Earth response due to unloading by WAIS retreat limits the retreat to the Amundsen Sea embayment on time scales of several millennia, whereas stiffer Earth structures yield a collapse under these conditions. Under stronger climate forcing, weak Earth structures associated with the West Antarctic rift system produce a delay of up to 5000 years in comparison to stiffer, Antarctic-average solid-Earth rheologies. Furthermore, we find that sea-level rise from an assumed fast deglaciation of the Greenland Ice Sheet induces WAIS collapse in the presence of higher asthenosphere viscosities in cases when the climatic forcing is too weak to force WAIS collapse alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (∼100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250ka and was complete by 700ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by ∼50m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000ka followed by its reappearance ∼900ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing. Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO2. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO2 would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO2 rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO2 by 7–12ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A growing number of research efforts have demonstrated the importance of climate–vegetation interaction in understanding climate sensitivity and climate change. In the study of Earth system history, vegetation is frequently specified or off-line vegetation calculations are produced using comprehensive biome models. However, these methods may fail to capture climate–vegetation feedbacks, and specified vegetation in a climate model may introduce substantial error into the simulation. Simple interactive vegetation models designed for incorporation into climate model studies in Earth history have considerable potential to (a) capture climate feedbacks ignored in earlier studies, (b) improve our ability to validate model simulations, and (c) gain greater insights into the distribution and character of vegetation in Earth history. The Simple Interactive Vegetation Model (SIVM) is a highly simplified vegetation model designed for Earth system history study. This model is evaluated by (1) determining the extent to which the simplified vegetation alters the simulation of the present-day climate, (2) determining the extent to which SIVM produces a realistic present-day vegetation distribution given observed climate parameters, and (3) examining the performance of the coupled GENESIS–SIVM system when applied to the Miocene and Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 climates. The SIVM provides substantial improvement over specified vegetation assumptions in climate models and aids in the interpretation of past climates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet formed on Antarctica as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) fell below ~750 parts per million (ppm). Sedimentary cycles from a drill core in the western Ross Sea provide direct evidence of orbitally controlled glacial cycles between 34 million and 31 million years ago. Initially, under atmospheric CO2 levels of >600 ppm, a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), restricted to the terrestrial continent, was highly responsive to local insolation forcing. A more stable, continental-scale ice sheet calving≥ at the coastline did not form until ~32.8 million years ago, coincident with the earliest time that atmospheric CO2 levels fell below ~600 ppm. Our results provide insight into the potential of the AIS for threshold behavior and have implications for its sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations above present-day levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]