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Climate change is commonly assumed to induce species' range shifts toward the poles. Yet, other environmental changes may affect the geographical distribution of species in unexpected ways. Here, we quantify multidecadal shifts in the distribution of European forest plants and link these shifts to key drivers of forest biodiversity change: climate change, atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulfur), and forest canopy dynamics. Surprisingly, westward distribution shifts were 2.6 times more likely than northward ones. Not climate change, but nitrogen-mediated colonization events, possibly facilitated by the recovery from past acidifying deposition, best explain westward movements. Biodiversity redistribution patterns appear complex and are more likely driven by the interplay among several environmental changes than due to the exclusive effects of climate change alone.

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔT niche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔT niche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔT niche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔT niche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔT niche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970-2000) and to project future (2060-2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060-2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV; i.e. variability in mean and/or distribution of plant attribute values within species) can occur in response to multiple drivers. Environmental change and land-use legacies could directly alter trait values within species but could also affect them indirectly through changes in vegetation cover. Increasing variability in environmental conditions could lead to more ITV, but responses might differ among species. Disentangling these drivers on ITV is necessary to accurately predict plant community responses to global change. We planted herb communities into forest soils with and without a recent history of agriculture. Soils were collected across temperate European regions, while the 15 selected herb species had different colonizing abilities and affinities to forest habitat. These mesocosms (384) were exposed to two-level full-factorial treatments of warming, nitrogen addition and illumination. We measured plant height and specific leaf area (SLA). For the majority of species, mean plant height increased as vegetation cover increased in response to light addition, warming and agricultural legacy. The coefficient of variation (CV) for height was larger in fast-colonizing species. Mean SLA for vernal species increased with warming, while light addition generally decreased mean SLA for shade-tolerant species. Interactions between treatments were not important predictors. Environmental change treatments influenced ITV, either via increasing vegetation cover or by affecting trait values directly. Species' ITV was individualistic, i.e. species responded to different single resource and condition manipulations that benefited their growth in the short term. These individual responses could be important for altered community organization after a prolonged period., (© 2020 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.)

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.

Pine plantations established on former heathland are common throughout Western Europe and North America. Such areas can continue to support high biodiversity values of the former heathlands in the more open areas, while simultaneously delivering ecosystem services such as wood production and recreation in the forested areas. Spatially optimizing wood harvest and recreation without threatening the biodiversity values, however, is challenging. Demand for woody biomass is increasing but other pressures on biodiversity including climate change, habitat fragmentation and air pollution are intensifying too. Strategies to spatially optimize different ecosystem services with biodiversity conservation are still underexplored in the research literature. Here we explore optimization scenarios for advancing ecosystem stewardship in a pine plantation in Belgium. Point observations of seven key indicator species were used to estimate habitat suitability using generalized linear models. Based on the habitat suitability and species' characteristics, the spatially-explicit conservation value of different forested and open patches was determined with the help of a spatially-explicit conservation planning tool. Recreational pressure was quantified by interviewing forest managers and with automated trail counters. The impact of wood production and recreation on the conservation of the indicator species was evaluated. We found trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and both wood production and recreation, but were able to present a final scenario that combines biodiversity conservation with a restricted impact on both services. This case study illustrates that innovative forest management planning can achieve better integration of the delivery of different forest ecosystem services such as wood production and recreation with biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a distribution range that covers most of the Northern hemisphere, common juniper ( Juniperus communis) has one of the largest ranges of all vascular plant species. In several regions in Europe, however, populations are decreasing in size and number due to failing recruitment. One of the main causes for this failure is low seed viability. Observational evidence suggests that this is partly induced by climate warming, but our mechanistic understanding of this effect remains incomplete. Here, we experimentally assess the influence of temperature on two key developmental phases during sexual reproduction, i.e. gametogenesis and fertilisation (seed phase two, SP2) and embryo development (seed phase three, SP3). Along a latitudinal gradient from southern France to central Sweden, we installed a transplant experiment with shrubs originating from Belgium, a region with unusually low juniper seed viability. Seeds of both seed phases were sampled during three consecutive years, and seed viability assessed. Warming temperatures negatively affected the seed viability of both SP2 and SP3 seeds along the latitudinal gradient. Interestingly, the effect on embryo development ( SP3) only occurred in the third year, i.e. when the gametogenesis and fertilisation also took place in warmer conditions. We found strong indications that this negative influence mostly acts via disrupting growth of the pollen tube, the development of the female gametophyte and fertilisation ( SP2). This, in turn, can lead to failing embryo development, for example, due to nutritional problems. Our results confirm that climate warming can negatively affect seed viability of juniper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Environmental change is increasingly impacting ecosystems worldwide. However, our knowledge about the interacting effects of various drivers of global change on sexual reproduction of plants, one of their key mechanisms to cope with change, is limited. This study examines populations of poorly regenerating and threatened common juniper (Juniperus communis) to determine the influence of four drivers of global change (rising temperatures, nitrogen deposition, potentially acidifying deposition and altering precipitation patterns) on two key developmental phases during sexual reproduction, gametogenesis and fertilization (seed phase two, SP2) and embryo development (seed phase three, SP3), and on the ripening time of seeds. Methods In 42 populations throughout the distribution range of common juniper in Europe, 11 943 seeds of two developmental phases were sampled. Seed viability was determined using seed dissection and related to accumulated temperature (expressed as growing degree-days), nitrogen and potentially acidifying deposition (nitrogen plus sulfur), and precipitation data. Key Results Precipitation had no influence on the viability of the seeds or on the ripening time. Increasing temperatures had a negative impact on the viability of SP2 and SP3 seeds and decreased the ripening time. Potentially acidifying depositions negatively influenced SP3 seed viability, while enhanced nitrogen deposition led to lower ripening times. Conclusions Higher temperatures and atmospheric deposition affected SP3 seeds more than SP2 seeds. However, this is possibly a delayed effect as juniper seeds develop practically independently, due to the absence of vascular communication with the parent plant from shortly after fertilization. It is proposed that the failure of natural regeneration in many European juniper populations might be attributed to climate warming as well as enhanced atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Decision-making survey on motivations, challenges and targets in forest management. • Respondents focus on climate change, biodiversity loss and forest regeneration. • Managers need to consider role of herbaceous understory to address these issues. • Requirement for a decision support tool that accounts for understory dynamics. Numerous decision-makers have an interest in how forest biodiversity and functioning will alter under environmental change. These decision-makers may have varied motivations underlying their management response to environmental change by focusing on contrasting management challenges and targets. Decision-makers may use different tools to aid their decision-making when facing uncertainty. We specifically investigate whether decision-makers in forest management across Europe consider the understory (i.e. herbaceous layer) in decision making, as this component constitutes the vast majority of floral biodiversity in temperate forests, and has an important functional role. To address this question, we distributed an online questionnaire to more than 800 forest management decision-makers across Europe, and received 100 completed responses. We assess what objectives drive management decisions, and whether these are consistent depending on respondents' occupations. Interestingly, regardless of respondent profile, biodiversity loss and climate change are expected to permeate management decisions in the coming decades, motivated primarily by a sense of environmental protection. Priority management targets did not vary across respondent profiles (i.e. occupation) either, and focused on biodiversity values, adaptation and mitigation to climate change, and forest regeneration. The majority of respondents identified the understory as an "Important" target for forest management decisions. Respondents used a mix of personal experience and literature sources to base management decisions on, while infrequently using recognised decision support systems (DSS). No utilised system considered the understory at the moment. Indeed, our review of available forest management DSS, conducted in parallel to the questionnaire, shows that an understory DSS tool, especially one that can consider changing socio-environmental conditions, is lacking for decision-makers. Based on (1) forest management decision-makers' wide concern around biodiversity loss, climate change and forest regeneration, (2) the known functional role of temperate forest understories, and (3) an apparent lack of existing DSS with an understory component, we identify the requirement for an agile tool that accounts for understory dynamics. Such a tool, especially when integrated into existing DSS, will strongly support decision-makers in their quest to attain more biodiverse, functional and resilient forests for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to well-known effects on species ecophysiology, phenology, and distributions, climate change is widely predicted to impact essential ecosystem services such as decomposition and nutrient cycling. While temperature and soil moisture are thought to influence litter decomposition, elucidating consistent soil process responses to observed or predicted shifts in climate have proven difficult to evidence. Here we investigated how aspect (i.e., north-south orientation), a natural model for variation in soil temperature, influenced soil physico-chemical conditions and decomposition of two standardised litter types (Green tea and Rooibos teabags) in Pole-facing (PF) and Equator-facing (EF) roadside verges spanning a 3000 km and 27° latitudinal gradient across Europe. Despite average daily temperatures being 1.5 - 3.0 °C warmer on EF than PF slopes, there were only minor region-specific differences in initial soil physico-chemical conditions and short-term variation in litter decomposition (i.e., litter mass loss was higher in EF-verges for the first month of deployment only) associated with aspect. We conclude that previously observed differences in soil environments and the decomposition process associated with slope orientation, is largely litter or environment specific, although medium-term soil-decomposition in semi-natural grassland ecosystems may also be insensitive to the magnitude of temperature variation within the range predicted by the IPCC SSP1–2.6 emissions scenario. Nonetheless, consistent average and extreme temperature differences between adjacent PF- and EF-aspects along roadside verges provides a model system to explore exactly how resilient the soil environment and the micro-organisms responsible for decomposition, are to temperature variation. • Consistent patterns of soil process and organism response to climate shifts remain elusive. • Habitat aspect and latitude greatly affect habitat microclimate. • Soil environment & litter decomposition responses were inconsistent and site-specific. • Litter decay may be unresponsive to warming in the low range IPCC emission scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]