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This review first pays tribute to the famous Croatian oceanographer, Mira Zore-Armanda, and her seminal work on the Adriatic water masses in 1963, and emphasises the importance of the densest Mediterranean water mass: North Adriatic Dense Water (NAddW). This water mass is generated through substantial wintertime surface cooling and evaporation over the wide northern Adriatic and is known to (1) influence the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (2) bring oxygen and carbon to the deep Adriatic layers and, (3) more generally, have a substantial impact on the physics and biogeochemistry of the whole Adriatic. Second, the NAddW physics, from preconditioning, through generation and spreading, to accumulation in Adriatic depressions, is reviewed. Then, the temporal evolution of the NAddW properties influenced and connected to (1) basin-wide interannual and decadal variability and (2) trends towards warmer and saltier source characteristic due to ongoing climate change, is discussed. The importance of long-term observations and atmosphere-ocean modelling in event, decadal and climate studies is then presented. Finally, a review of the identified gaps and perspectives for future research is concluding this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Seven multi-decadal ocean simulations have been assessed for the Adriatic Sea. • Analysed simulations differ in resolution, forcing and coupling strategies. • Thermohaline properties and dynamic processes of the Adriatic Sea are better reproduced by coupled models. • All analysed models underrepresent dense water formation on the shelf. • Ocean model resolution and river forcing play a second-order role. Abstract A performance study of seven regional ocean configurations based on NEMO has been carried out for the Adriatic Sea over a common period (1980–2012). Assessed models differ in resolution, model physics, atmospheric forcing (forced vs. coupled models) and river discharges imposed within the Adriatic Sea. Models have been evaluated on the long-term temperature and salinity measurements in all of the Adriatic sub-basins, in particular within dense water collectors (Jabuka Pit and South Adriatic Pit) and dense water formation sites (northern and southern Adriatic). Adriatic-wide salinity content is mostly linked to the proper introduction of the overall water budget, rather than to the local river forcing. Forced models mostly overestimate temperature and salinity values. On average, coupled models better reproduce the thermohaline properties and processes, in particular the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) reversals and its decadal variability. Wintertime heat losses are playing major role in defining the Adriatic Deep Water (ADW) transport rates in coupled models, while in forced models preconditioning in salinity is the most important factor. Further on, increase of resolution of the atmospheric forcing results in more realistic ocean behaviour, including dense water formation (DWF) in the complex coastal northern Adriatic. However, all models have large temperature biases and lower deep stratification at the dense water collector sites, indicating overall underrepresentation of the Adriatic DWF. Consequently, mixed-layer depth in the southern Adriatic is overestimated, reaching the bottom during some years. Ocean model resolution and river forcing seem to play a second-order role in defining the overall Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline properties, while inclusion of aerosol trend only slightly modified the BiOS reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topical issue includes 22 papers on different aspects of meteorology and climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The papers are grouped into three categories, based on scale analysis of processes, and whether the study is dominantly related to the atmospheric or oceanic phenomenon. The category “Storms, Extremes and Mesoscale Processes” encompasses seven papers, ranging from observation and modelling data analysis of extreme atmospheric (severe winds, hailstorms, waterspout, cyclones) and oceanic (meteotsunamis, surface waves) events, occurring locally, but being connected to wider patterns and processes. The six papers in category “Atmospheric Climate, Variability and Climate Change” contain analyses of long-term observations and climate projection outputs, but also assess atmosphere-ocean-land interactions and cycles, that are important in a climate perspective. The category “Ocean Climate and Variability” includes nine papers, which map ocean processes (sea level variability, circulation, sea surface temperatures, vertical thermal structure, water masses and dense water formation) on a climate timescale, both, in the Mediterranean and Black Sea sub-basins, or taking them as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the Adriatic atmosphere–ocean trends and variability simulated by the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model during the 1987–2017 period. As the AdriSC model has been successfully validated over the entire basin against an extensive dataset of in situ measurements and remote sensing products, the reliability of the presented results at the regional (basin-wide) and local (sub-domains) scales is high. We found that trends and variability in the atmosphere reveal strong land-sea contrasts with (1) stronger temperature trends associated with lower, mostly seasonal, variability over the Adriatic Sea than over the land and (2) positive trends of wind speed and negative trends of relative humidity associated with high, mostly seasonal, variability over the sea and vice versa over the land. While, in the ocean, the analysis highlights several processes: (1) extensive warming by the atmosphere at the surface during summer, affecting both temperature and salinity, (2) shallowing of the advection of the saline Levantine Intermediate Water inflow into the Adriatic, (3) decrease of the Adriatic deep water outflow and therefore the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (4) warming of near-bottom waters, in particular in the middle and northern Adriatic, and (5) shrinking and weakening of the Southern Adriatic Gyre, in particular at its center. We thus demonstrate that kilometer-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling is an indispensable tool for proper quantification of climate change in complex coastal basins, as it captures local characteristics not properly reproduced by present state-of-the-art regional climate models with an order of magnitude coarser resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to quantify a multiyear ocean temperature change at a shallow (5 m) coastal site in the northeastern Adriatic. Measurements were taken between May 2014 and May 2021 with an hourly resolution, allowing for an extraction of temperature variations over longer-term, seasonal, synoptic, quasi-diurnal and hourly timescales. As expected for shallow waters, the seasonal influence is prevalent, while diurnal changes are quasi-persistent throughout the year. Marine heat waves and cold spells are the strongest during spring and summer months. Non-seasonal changes mostly guide longer-term (>10 days) variability, yet rapid temperature changes reach 2 °C/h during stratified seasons. Such rapid changes may impact benthic communities and the physiology of marine species, including bivalves. This is especially important in the era of global warming, in which environmental conditions are already pushed towards their thresholds, and where high-frequency variability analyses can be useful in introducing a precautionary approach for local climate change adaptation. • Multi-year hourly coastal temperature data has been analyzed in the Adriatic. • Near-surface temperature variability across timescales has been documented. • Seasonal variability is prevalent, yet the temperature may change rapidly. • The temperature changes may strongly impact the benthic organisms, like bivalve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper documents dynamics of the middle Adriatic region, and is based on computation of relative geostrophic currents from temperature and salinity data taken along the Palagruža Sill transect between 1957 and 2010. The strongest westward current is found in the central part of the sill, corresponding to the offshore deflected Eastern Adriatic Current (EAC). The Western Adriatic Current (WAC) is, as expected, found in the southern part of the measured transect. The WAC is most significant during the summer season and exhibits stronger variability than the EAC due to the frequent growth of eddies within it. Long-term trends in both the central and southern parts of the sill oppose mean currents, indicating the weakening of the EAC and WAC and therefore of the entire Adriatic thermohaline cell. These opposing trends have not been reproduced by a climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper documents the present climate and future climate projections of sea-level variability (SLV) induced by atmospheric pressure and wind for period bands ranging from 1 to 100days in the Mediterranean Sea. The results are based on output from a regional barotropic numerical ocean model. Present climate SLV was simulated using air pressure and wind fields from a dynamical downscaling of the ERA40 reanalysis for 1958–2008 (hindcast) and validated with long-term tide gauge records. Climate projections for the 21st century were forced with output from the atmospheric ARPEGE model using scenarios B1, A1B and A2. Additionally, we performed a control simulation forced by observed SSTs, GHGs and aerosol concentrations for the period 1950–2000. SLV has been assessed over three different period bands (1–3, 3–10 and 10–100days) that were obtained by applying digital band-pass filtering procedures to both the present day and climate projections. Of the three time periods, the 1–3-day SLV had the worst comparability between the hindcast and the observations. We found that most of the SLV trends were insignificant in the present climate but were negative in the projections over all of the periods, especially for the medium- (A1B) and high-emission (A2) scenarios. Projections of 3–10- and 10–100-day extreme SLV, estimated from high-order percentiles, indicate increases in extreme SLV events versus the average. This result does not apply to the 1–3-day extreme SLV. The largest negative SLV trends were projected for autumn and for the 1–3-day period band, except for the low-emission (B1) scenario. However, the 1–3-day period band contributed less than 12% to the overall SLV, while the largest variance (55–75%) was present in the 10–100-day period band, indicating the importance of correct simulation of planetary-scale atmospheric processes with long temporal scales for the reliability of the climate projections. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper analyzes potential recruitment effect of endangered bivalve Pinna nobilis in a small marine protected area-Little Lake (Adriatic Sea). A box model has been applied for the estimation of residence time of the lake, forced by tides only at the open end of the lake system. The residence time of Little Lake was estimated to be 54 days. In our approach we assumed that P. nobilis larvae may be found in the surface waters only during the night, thus restricting their outgoing from the lake to about 7-8 hours per day in the June-August period, as the larvae need some time to reach surface waters. Therefore, the equivalent residence time of the larvae in Little Lake is estimated to be about 160-185 days. Knowing that the bivalve larva phase lasts between 3 and 5 weeks, one may estimate that only 11 to 22% of the larvae, respectively, leave Little Lake. From a conservation standpoint these low values imply a special level of protection within Mljet National Park In addition, future climatic changes will affect the recruitment of P. nobilis, not only due to sea level rise but also with temperature and other changes which may influence its reproduction phase and larvae transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate synoptic meteotsunami index has been constructed using synoptic variables for the Balearic Islands. The index allows for the very first assessment of atmospherically driven intense sea level oscillations at the tsunami timescale (<2 hr) in future climates. The index has been computed using outputs from evaluation, historical, and three scenario MED‐11_CNRM Med‐CORDEX regional atmospheric climate runs. The reliability of the index has been verified against reanalysis simulations and on documented meteotsunami events. No significant changes in the index are projected under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while the yearly number of days with meteotsunamis is expected to increase by 34% under the RCP8.5 scenario by the year 2100. This increase will dominantly occur during the summer season (May–August), being contemporaneous with maximum index values. The presented results are relevant for assessment of sea level extremes worldwide, since high‐frequency sea level oscillations may contribute up to 40% of the total range. Plain Language Summary: The study aims to develop the proxy methodology to be used for assessment of meteotsunamis—atmospherically driven waves in a tsunami frequency band—in the future climate, as the present climate models are far from reproduction of processes on a minute and a kilometer scale. The proxy estimates are based on connecting synoptic parameters and patterns to the high‐frequency sea level observations. The methodology is successfully verified for Ciutadella harbor, a known hot spot for meteotsunamis, on state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis data. It seems that meteotsunamis are likely not to increase in all but business‐as‐usual (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, where the increase is matching the season when meteotsunami reach their maximum (spring–summer). The methodology might be useful for assessing meteotsunami hazard in future climates, while being applied at places where meteotsunamis are driven dominantly by a single atmospheric process. Global and regional analyses indicate that these might encompass the majority of midlatitudal regions. Key Points: A proxy‐based index has been developed for assessing meteotsunamigenic potential in future climateNo significant changes in the index have been found for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenariosThe number of days with meteotsunamis is expected to increase by 34% by the end of the century for the RCP8.5 scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to estimate wintertime thermohaline properties and dense water formation (DWF) dynamics, rates, and transports in the northern and middle Adriatic between 2008 and 2015. The focus has also been directed to the year-to-year differences between two known DWF sites located on the northern Adriatic shelf and in the eastern coastal region. The estimates are based on a high-resolution interannual simulation by Regional Ocean Modelling System, one-way forced by the meteorological Aladin/HR operational mesoscale model, with new river climatology imposed particularly at the eastern Adriatic coast. Substantial interannual variability in wintertime bottom densities has been found, varying for more than 1.0 kg m−3 among years. Such variations are largely associated with the January-February heat losses, while atmospheric preconditioning in November-December seems to have a little effect on the DWF rates. By contrast, salinity is preconditioning the DWF in the eastern coastal site. That has been found relevant for DWF rates during extraordinary winters, as in the case of 2012. Contribution of a coastal site to the overall DWF rates in other years has not been substantial. Finally, a saw-tooth-like pattern in thermohaline time series has been found in observations and reproduced by the numerical model at the bottom of the middle Adriatic depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide baseline conditions for the climate change impact. The pseudo-global warming (PGW) methodology—which imposes an additional climatological change to the forcing used in the evaluation simulations, was implemented, for the very first time, for a coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model and used to assess the behavior of the selected storms under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas projections. The findings of this experiment are that, on the one hand, the AdriSC model is found capable of reproducing both the Adriatic waves associated with the 36 storms and the northern Adriatic surges occurring during the sirocco events and, on the other hand, the significant wave heights and peak periods are likely to decrease during all future extreme events but most particularly during bora storms. The northern Adriatic storm surges are in consequence also likely to decrease during sirocco events. As it was previously demonstrated that the Adriatic extreme wind-wave events are likely to be less intense in a future warmer climate, this study also proved the validity of applying the PGW methodology to coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere models at the coastal and nearshore scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate predictions of air temperature in coastal regions represent a great challenge due to the complex interactions among the atmosphere, sea, and land. With approximately 1,200 islands, the Adriatic is a region with a strong land‐sea contrast, land‐atmosphere feedback, and intense air‐sea interaction. Because the Mediterranean has been regarded as a "hot spot" for climate change, regional climate models can be used to provide insight into a more realistic representation of small‐scale weather and climate structure and variability. This advantage is due to the better representation of complex topography, developed coastlines, and land‐sea contrasts, which are important for investigating air temperature trends. The use of regional climate models together with high‐resolution reanalyses and observations in assessments of climate variability and climate change is highly valuable for understanding climate processes at regional scales. The present study focused on air temperature and its trends calculated from measurements and simulated by eight regional climate models from the EURO‐CORDEX database; these data were represented by UERRA reanalyses and E‐OBS gridded data. In the evaluation period (1989–2008), the models' RMSEs were fairly small, in the range 0.5–1.5°C, compared to the historical period (1961–2005), with RMSEs greater than 1.75°C. However, the models showed small absolute trend differences (up to 0.12°C·decade−1 for the historical period). The ensemble means in both periods showed an accuracy improvement of 15–20% compared to the individual models. The models exhibited more success in terms of representing the main statistics and variability of the air temperature structure than in reproducing the temperature trends over 45 years, especially in the northern Adriatic, where there is complex coastal topography and significant seasonal variability in the wind regime. The reanalyses well represented temperature structure but showed less success in explaining the temperature trends than the results from the measured data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]