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Increasing pressure – such as from conflict, climate change and urbanisation – on maritime cultural heritage in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) led to the establishment of the Maritime Endangered Archaeology (MarEA) Project in 2019. This five-year programme aims to assess rapidly and comprehensively the vulnerability of maritime and coastal heritage in the MENA region and assist in its management in the face of the aforementioned challenges. The two case studies discussed in this article highlight some of the main aspects of MarEA's current work in North Africa by focusing on two different aspects of the methodological approach used: first, the generalised but comprehensive damage and threat assessment, as applied to all sites, and demonstrated for the historic port of Suakin (Sudan); second, site-specific shoreline change assessment for the purpose of assessing the impact of coastal erosion, as demonstrated for the World Heritage Site of Sabratha (Libya). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent global projections of climate change highlight alarming rates of flooding and erosion on the coastlines of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Though there are indisputable links between climate change and the deterioration of maritime cultural heritage (particularly coastal archaeology), deterioration is often the result of multiple compounding factors, central among which are anthropogenic landscape alterations. In this article the authors attempt to disentangle these factors at a small scale, using the Gaza Strip, Libya, and Oman as case studies. They examine the impact of accelerating coastal erosion, flooding, and increasing frequency of tropical cyclones to question predominant discussions on the impact of climate change on heritage. They emphasize methods and practices for the identification of sites that can expand and refine climate change research (often reliant on data from the twentieth and twenty-first centuries) through the long-term perspective archaeology is uniquely placed to offer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens coastal archaeology through storm flooding (extreme sea-level: ESL), long-term sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. Many regions, like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), lack key baseline evidence. We present initial results from a climate change threat assessment of MENA's coastal heritage using the Maritime Endangered Archaeology inventory: a geospatial database of MENA maritime archaeological sites incorporating a disturbance/ threat assessment. It informs two analyses of past disturbance and future threat: (1) using the integral threat/disturbance assessment, and (2) geospatial extraction of information from external coastal change models. Analysis suggests <5% of documented coastal sites are definitely affected by coastal erosion but up to 34% could also have experienced past flooding, erosion, or storm action. Climate change-related threats will increase over the 21st Century and accelerate post-2050 if carbon emissions remain high. SLR and ESL could impact 14–25% of sites by 2050 and 18–34% by 2100. Over 30% to 40% of sites could be impacted by erosion by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Whilst documentation is ongoing and there remain modeling uncertainties, this approach provides a means to redress the absence of baseline data on climate change threats to coastal cultural heritage in MENA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing evidence indicates that ongoing and future climate change impacts, such as enhanced coastal erosion driven by intensified storms and sea-level rise, will be destructive or problematic for coastal archaeological heritage. Approaches to this problem range from broad-scale GIS-based vulnerability assessments to site-scale monitoring and survey. In all cases, the approach chosen should be based on the best-available data on the local historic environment and pattern of coastal change. Therefore, this paper will demonstrate how such data can be successively acquired and enhanced using an integrated approach that builds on and refines a previously conducted broadscale vulnerability assessment. This approach was adopted in the study region (Northern Ireland) owing to a lack of coherent and upto-date information on shoreline change. This approach incorporated the GIS-based Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify and analyze local shoreline change. DSAS is a software extension for ESRI ArcGIS which allows calculation of rate-of-change statistics using past shorelines identified from georeferenced historic maps and vertical aerial imagery. Additionally, a field survey was conducted to assess the condition of recorded sites, and identify unrecorded ones. Results revealed a more complex pattern of shoreline change in the study area (Magilligan Foreland, Lough Foyle) than previously anticipated, with zones of significant erosion interspersed with areas of stability or advance. Fifty-one new sites ranging from the prehistoric period to the Second World War were also identified. The new information was used to develop a priority classification based on site significance, condition and risk level which improved significantly on the uniform classification of the original broad-scale assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper will present research on the vulnerability mapping of coastal archaeological sites currently being undertaken in Northern Ireland. The ultimate aim of this research is improve current predictions of where archaeological sites and landscapes will be at risk in the future from coastal erosion. The initial stage of this approach uses a suite of oblique aerial photographs to construct a baseline of eroding locations and coastal geomorphology. The erosion baseline can then be integrated with existing historic environment records to obtain a coarse first-pass archaeological vulnerability assessment. Subsequent stages can then use this assessment to prioritize future mitigation such as field surveys or monitoring exercises, or conduct further refinements of vulnerability classifications by incorporating information on site type and positioning on a local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal archaeological heritage is potentially vulnerable to increased erosion resulting from predicted future sea-level rise and increased storminess. As all sites cannot be protected, it is essential that heritage managers know which sites and landscapes are most at risk so they can prioritize resources and decision-making most effectively. One method of doing so is through desk-based modeling of coastal vulnerability. This article outlines the advantages and limitations of such an approach and demonstrates the application of a desk-based model to case studies from Newfoundland's coast. The rate of future sea-level rise around Newfoundland is complicated by its glacio-isostatic recovery since the last ice age. The first step therefore in this assessment is to combine output from glacio-isostatic adjustment models with appropriate rates of global eustatic sea-level rise. Next, these data are integrated with existing information on coastal characteristics (topography, surficial geology, erosion rates) to assess coastal sensitivity to sea-level rise. Finally, overlay of known archaeological sites identifies those locations at greatest risk from destructive coastal changes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of such models for regional-scale analyses but caution against the use of low resolution data to generate site-specific predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]