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ABSTRACT Ceracris nigricornis Walker is an insect of the Acrididae, which can harm bamboo, rice, corn, sorghum and other crops, and can cause serious economic losses. In this study, based on 234 occurrence sites of C. nigricornis obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and literature, and data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, two niche models (GARP, MaxEnt) were used to predict the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China. The result shows that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. nigricornis are min temperature of coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of driest month (bio14) and precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16). From the result of MaxEnt model, it can be seen that the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China is 128.91 × 104 km2 under current scenario. It will decrease by 3.19% in the 2050s and then increase by 12.04% in the 2090s under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, increase by 5.79% in the 2050s and then decrease by 7.53% in the 2090s under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario, and increase by 33.03% in 2050s and then decrease by 23.31% in the 2090s under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. From the result of GARP model, it can be seen that the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China is 166.09 × 104 km2 under current scenario. It will increase by 8.41% in 2050s and then continue to increase by 6.11% in 2090s under SSP1‐2.6 scenario, increase by 23.84% in the 2050s and then decrease by 0.88% in the 2090s under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario, and increase by 34.37% in 2050s and then decrease by 1.75% in 2090s under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. The boundaries of suitable areas will expand to the north and southwest of China under future climate change scenarios, specially in Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan. Local forestry authorities should strengthen the monitoring of bamboo forests to prevent the damage caused by the introduction of C. nigricornis.

Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen is a major tree species with high economic and ecological value in the Greater Khingan Mountains coniferous forest of Northeast China. Reconstructing the priority Conservation Area of Larix gmelinii under Climate could provide a scientific basis for its germplasm conservation and management. The present study used ensemble and Marxan model simulations to predict species distribution areas and delineate priority conservation areas for Larix gmelinii in relation to productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics, and climate change impacts. The study revealed that the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Mountains, with an area of approximately 300 974.2 km2, were the most suitable for L. gmelinii. The stand productivity of L. gmelinii in the most suitable area was significantly higher than that in the less suitable and marginally suitable areas, but understory plant diversity was not dominant. The increase in temperature under future climate change scenarios will reduce the potential distribution and area under L. gmelinii; the species will migrate to higher latitudes of the Greater Khingan Mountains, while the degree of niche migration will gradually increase. Under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the most suitable area for L. gmelinii will completely disappear, and the climate model niche will be completely separated. Therefore, the protected area of L. gmelinii was demarcated with a target of the productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics and climate change sensitive area, and the current key protected area was 8.38 × 104 km2. Overall, the study’s findings will lay a foundation for the protection and rational development and utilization of cold temperate coniferous forests dominated by L. gmelinii in the northern forested region of the Greater Khingan Mountains.