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Biocrusts are critical biological components of drylands and play an important role in soil carbon (C) cycling. However, the effect of biocrusts on soil CO 2 exchange across global gradients of temperature and moisture is poorly understood. Moreover, their response to climate change remains highly uncertain. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analyses were performed on 47 published studies to quantify the impact of biocrusts on net soil exchange (NSE) of carbon- the difference between respiration and photosynthesis. Meta-analyses were also used on 23 studies to examine the effects of experimental warming on NSE in biocrusts. Meta-regressions further explored the thermal and wetness sensitivities of biocrust NSE and potential adaptation of biocrust responses to climate change. The development of biocrusts in dryland soils significantly increased NSE by 66.5 [22.2, 112.2] g C m−2yr−1, despite seasonal fluctuations, indicating a net loss of carbon to the atmosphere. Experimental warming, on average, increased biocrust NSE by 22.9 [-0.1, 40.8] g C m−2yr−1 per °C. However, across the spatial climate gradient, aridity limited the effects of warming, while high temperature decreased the thermal sensitivity of biocrust NSE, thus supporting the thermal adaptation of biocrusts. These results emphasize the critical role of biocrusts in modulating soil carbon exchange in response to climate warming across drylands, with particularly high thermal sensitivity in cool and moist regions. This highlights the need to incorporate biocrusts into global carbon budgets and models for a comprehensive understanding of their impact on the carbon cycle. • Biocrusts increase soil CO2 efflux by 66.5 g C m-2yr-1 in drylands worldwide. • Climate warming increases CO2 efflux in biocrust soil by 22.9 g C m-2yr-1 per °C. • Thermal adaptation reduces thermal sensitivity of biocrust carbon efflux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observational evidence suggests that nighttime temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures, while in some regions precipitation events are becoming less frequent and more intense. The combined ecological impacts of these climatic changes on crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants and their interactions with other functional groups (i.e., grass communities) remain poorly understood. Here we developed a growth chamber experiment to investigate how two CAM–grass communities in desert ecosystems of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico respond to asymmetric warming and increasing rainfall variability. Grasses generally showed competitive advantages over CAM plants with increasing rainfall variability under ambient temperature conditions. In contrast, asymmetric warming caused mortality of both grass species (Bouteloua eriopoda and Bouteloua curtipendula) in both rainfall treatments due to enhanced drought stress. Grass mortality indirectly favored CAM plants even though the biomass of both CAM species Cylindropuntia imbricata and Opuntia phaeacantha significantly decreased. The stem's volume-to-surface ratio of C. imbricata was significantly higher in mixture than in monoculture under ambient temperature (both P < 0.0014); however, the difference became insignificant under asymmetric warming (both P > 0.1625), suggesting that warming weakens the negative effects of interspecific competition on CAM plant growth. Our findings suggest that while the increase in intra-annual rainfall variability enhances grass productivity, asymmetric warming may lead to grass mortality, thereby indirectly favoring the expansion of co-existing CAM plants. This study provides novel experimental evidence showing how the ongoing changes in global warming and rainfall variability affect CAM–grass growth and interactions in dryland ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Determining physiological mechanisms and thresholds for climate‐driven tree die‐off could help improve global predictions of future terrestrial carbon sinks. We directly tested for the lethal threshold in hydraulic failure – an inability to move water due to drought‐induced xylem embolism – in a pine sapling experiment.In a glasshouse experiment, we exposed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) saplings (n = 83) to drought‐induced water stress ranging from mild to lethal. Before rewatering to relieve drought stress, we measured native hydraulic conductivity and foliar color change. We monitored all measured individuals for survival or mortality.We found a lethal threshold at 80% loss of hydraulic conductivity – a point of hydraulic failure beyond which it is more likely trees will die, than survive, and describe mortality risk across all levels of water stress. Foliar color changes lagged behind hydraulic failure – best predicting when trees had been dead for some time, rather than when they were dying.Our direct measurement of native conductivity, while monitoring the same individuals for survival or mortality, quantifies a continuous probability of mortality risk from hydraulic failure. Predicting tree die‐off events and understanding the mechanism involved requires knowledge not only of when trees are dead, but when they begin dying – having passed the point of no return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: The intensity of extreme rainfall events is increasing in many regions of the world, with important impacts on community dynamics and ecosystem functioning especially in water-limited ecosystems. The impact of the intensification of extreme precipitation on mixed communities of CAM plants and dryland C4 grasses remains poorly understood. Methods: Through a set of greenhouse experiments we investigated the effect of increasing intraseasonal rainfall variability on two separate pairs of CAM and C4 grass species (C. imbricata and B. eriopoda; O. phaeacantha and B. curtipendula) that coexist in arid grasslands across the southwest USA. Results: The increased rainfall variability did not significantly change the biomass of C. imbricata while increasing the biomass of B. eriopoda when these two species coexisted. More extreme rainfall regimes caused a 24.8% decrease in B. curtipendula (grass) biomass, compared with a 71.3% decline in the O. phaeacantha CAM plant. Significantly lower nocturnal carbon assimilation rates and higher stem volume-to-surface area ratios were found in CAM plants in mixture than in monoculture. Conclusions: Our study suggests that C4 grasses may outcompete CAM plants through greater access to deep soil water under increased rainfall variability and highlights the important role of hydrologic conditions as determinants of the competitive relations between CAM plants and grasses, their community composition, and ecological resilience in dryland ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Calibrating parameters is necessary for dynamic vegetation model in local scale. • Potential forest areas will decrease, while potential steppe areas will increase. • Existing land use pattern should be adjusted to adapt to climate change. • Shrubs have larger area and higher habitat suitability than forests. • Results could guide decision makers in developing effective revegetation plans. Abstract Global concern about the restoration of vegetation ecosystems has recently increased. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) and climate adaptation concepts should be integrated into revegetation programs to achieve sustainable ecosystems. The Yanhe Basin in the Loess Plateau of China (7687 km2) has been subjected to intense human activity for centuries. It was selected as the study area because vegetation degradation and restoration are occurring there. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate whether the current vegetation pattern is appropriate, and (2) provide a restoration plan for future revegetation programs based on PNV and habitat suitability patterns simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Current work focused on the parameter calibration and high-resolution climate data of the model over the study area. The comparisons of model performances in the PNV pattern and productivity indicated that parameter calibration was necessary for the model application. PNV of the Yanhe Basin may shift by 21.37–29.67% from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100, mainly in the southern part. Forests may decrease and steppes may increase as the climate becomes drier in the future. Comparisons between an existing land use map and the current PNV pattern indicated that only 40.8% of the forestland was coincident with the current PNV pattern, whereas grassland was a more suitable vegetation type for the rest of the terrain. In contrast, 83.1% of the grassland aligned with the current PNV pattern. Therefore, 16.9% remains to be forested. Current forestland and grassland patterns should be adjusted to cope with future climate change. Broadleaf summer-green shrubs covered a larger area and had higher habitat suitability than forests; they might be the most suitable woody plants for revegetation of the Yanhe Basin. The applied research approach could be extended to other regions undergoing similar revegetation programs and help promote sustainable vegetation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We investigate mechanism of hydraulic redistribution (HR) in relatively shallow tree roots. [•] We model the climate, vegetation, and soil controls on HR in shallow tree roots. [•] We investigate the effect of HR on the water stress of trees and grasses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Global climate change may greatly alter the structure and stability of drylands, creating an urgent need to recover their functions and services. Biological soil crust (biocrust), an interface between the soil and atmosphere, plays a crucial role in ecohydrological processes, and thus in influencing the restoration dynamics of dryland ecosystems. Previous studies have generally investigated the influences of biocrust on ecohydrological processes as an exogenous factor. However, it remains unclear how biocrusts, as an integral part of many ecosystems (i.e., as a system state variable), will change under global climate change.Methods: This study developed a new ecohydrological model with biocrust cover as a system state variable, and explored the response of dryland ecosystems to altered rainfall regimes.Results: Biocrust cover responded with an inverted U-shaped curve relationship to increasing annual rainfall and linearly to increasing rainfall frequency. Vascular plant (grass and shrub) cover showed an increasing trend with increasing annual rainfall and a decreasing trend to increasing rainfall frequency. Therefore, biocrust usually dominated over vascular plants (i.e., high biocrust cover and low vascular plant cover) under low annual rainfall. Furthermore, an increasing rainfall frequency would amplify the range of environmental (rainfall) conditions dominated by biocrust from an annual rainfall 0-100 mm under a rainfall frequency of 0.025 day−1 to 0-500 mm under a rainfall frequency of 1 day−1.Conclusions: This study developed a model framework to predict dryland dynamics for surfaces covered by biocrust under global climate change. We suggest that restoration efforts could target at biocrust-dominated state in deserts, especially in a (future) drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sequence of physiological events during drought strongly impacts plants' overall performance. Here, we synthesized the global data of stomatal and hydraulic traits in leaves and stems of 202 woody species to evaluate variations in the water potentials for key physiological events and their sequence along the climatic gradient. We found that the seasonal minimum water potential, turgor loss point, stomatal closure point, and leaf and stem xylem vulnerability to embolism were intercorrelated and decreased with aridity, indicating that water stress drives trait co‐selection. In xeric regions, the seasonal minimum water potential occurred at lower water potential than turgor loss point, and the subsequent stomatal closure delayed embolism formation. In mesic regions, however, the seasonal minimum water potential did not pose a threat to the physiological functions, and stomatal closure occurred even at slightly more negative water potential than embolism. Our study demonstrates that the sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions of woody plants varies with aridity, that is, xeric species adopt a more conservative sequence to prevent severe tissue damage through tighter stomatal regulation (isohydric strategy) and higher embolism resistance, while mesic species adopt a riskier sequence via looser stomatal regulation (anisohydric strategy) to maximize carbon uptake at the cost of hydraulic safety. Integrating both aridity‐dependent sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions and gap between these key traits into the hydraulic framework of process‐based vegetation models would improve the prediction of woody plants' responses to drought under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Fresh carbon (C) inputs to the soil can have important consequences for the decomposition rates of soil organic matter (priming effect), thereby impacting the delicate global C balance at the soil–atmosphere interface. Yet, the environmental factors that control soil priming effect intensity remain poorly understood at a global scale. Location: Global. Time period: 1980–2020. Major taxa studied: Soil priming effect intensity. Methods: We conducted a global dataset of CO2 effluxes in 711 pairwise soils with 13C or 14C simple C sources inputs and without C inputs from incubation experiments in which isotope‐labelled C was used to quantify fresh C‐induced rather than exudate‐induced priming. Results: Soil priming effect intensity is predominantly positive. Soil texture and C content were identified as the most important factors associated with priming effects, with sandy soils from tropical and mid‐latitudes supporting the highest soil priming effect intensity, and soils with greater C content and fine textures from high latitudes maintaining the lowest soil priming effects. The negative association between C content and soil priming effect intensity was also indirectly driven by changing mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and fungi : bacteria ratio. Using this information, we generated a global map of soil priming effect intensity, and found that the priming was lower at high latitudes and higher at lower latitudes. Main conclusions: Global patterns of soil priming effect intensity can be predicted using environmental data, with soil texture and C content playing a predominant role in explaining in priming effects. These effects were also indirectly driven by climate, vegetation and soil microbial properties. We present the first global atlas of soil priming effect intensity and advance our knowledge on the potential mechanisms underlying soil priming effect intensity, which are integral to improving the climate change and soil C dynamics components of Earth System models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Siberia has experienced a pronounced warming over the past several decades, which has induced an increase in the extent of evergreen conifer forest. However, the potential slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) has produced intense debate since the late 1990s. During this warming hiatus, the Siberian region experienced a significant cooling during the winter season around 10 times that of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole. This potentially stresses evergreen conifer forests because cooler winters can cause cold-temperature damage and, hence, increase the mortality of young evergreen conifer forests. In this study, the response of Siberian forest composition during the warming hiatus was investigated using satellite observations coupled with model simulations. Observations indicated that from 2001 to 2012, the apparent area of evergreen conifer forest has increased by 10%, while that of the deciduous conifer forest has decreased by 40%. The transition from deciduous to evergreen conifer forest usually occurs through mixed forest or woody savannas as a buffer. To verify the response of evergreen conifer forest, model experiments were performed using an individual-based forest model. Hysteresis of forest change seen in the model simulations indicates that changes in forest composition dynamics under temperature oscillations induced by internal climate variability may not reverse this composition change. As a result, the evergreen conifer forest expansion under climate warming is expected to be a continuing process despite the occurrence of a warming hiatus, exerting far-reaching implications for climate-change-induced albedo shifts in the Siberian forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]