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The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is one of the world's largest hydropower projects and plays an important role in water resources management in the Yangtze River. For the sake of disaster prevention and catchment management, it is crucial to understand the regulation capacity of the TGR on extreme hydrological events and its impact on flow regime in a changing climate. This study obtains historical inflows of the TGR from 1961 to 2019 and uses a distributed hydrological model to simulate the future inflows from 2021 to 2070. These data are adopted to drive a machine learning‐based TGR operation model to obtain the simulated outflow with TGR operation, which are then compared with the natural flow without TGR operation to assess the impact of TGR. The results indicate that the average flood peaks and total flooding days in the historical period could have been reduced by 29.2% and 53.4% with the operation of TGR. The relative declines in drought indicators including duration and intensity were generally less than 10%. Faced with more severe extreme hydrological events in the future, the TGR is still expected to alleviate floods and droughts, but cannot bring them down to historical levels. The impact of TGR operation on flow regime will also evolve in a changing climate, potentially altering the habitats of river ecosystems. This study proposes feasible methods for simulating the operation of large reservoirs and quantifying the impact on flow regime, and provides insights for integrated watershed management in the upper Yangtze River basin. Plain Language Summary: The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is located in the upper Yangtze River basin and is one of the world's largest hydropower projects. This study combines hydrological modeling and machine learning methods to quantify the effects of TGR operation on flow regime in the historical and future periods. The results indicate that the operation of TGR could play an important role in mitigating historical droughts and floods. Specifically, the flood peak in 1998 could have been reduced by 24.7% if the TGR was in operation. In the future, the extreme hydrological events will become more severe. While the TGR will continue to play a significant role, it cannot fully control floods and droughts to the same extent as it did in the historical period. In a changing climate, the Yangtze River basin will still face higher flood and drought risks with the operation of TGR. Under future climate scenarios, the operation of TGR will also alter the flow regime metrics and have new implications on the river ecosystem environment. Key Points: An ensemble learning model based on two neural networks is constructed to simulate Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) operationsTGR can mitigate floods and droughts, but this capability might be weakened by more severe future extreme eventsTGR can offset most flow regime changes caused by climate change, but adaptive operation strategies are still needed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are among the most devastating and financially burdensome natural disasters in Europe. The combined impact of climate change and land use change is expected to exacerbate and intensify the destructive consequences of river floods. In this study, we analysed the effects of wetland restoration on peak and base flows and on water quality in the Kylldal catchment of the Kyll River in the German Middle Mountains using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+). Monthly median daily discharge increases varied between 3% and 33% in the studied (micro)catchments. The higher median flow rates show that discharge peaks were attenuated and distributed over a longer period, making both extreme peak flows and low flows less common. Peak flows tended to decrease, with the largest effects between late fall and early spring when peak flow values decreased by up to 18%. The annual maximum peak flows in each of the three micro-catchments decreased by 12–24% on average. The occurrence of daily average flow rates larger than 1 m3 s−1 was up to 45% lower after wetland restoration. Low flows increased by up to 21% and 13% in the summer and fall, respectively, which suggests that drought risk also decreases after wetland restoration. Average nitrogen exports decreased by 38–50% in the project areas and by 20% at the catchment level. Average phosphorus exports decreased by 52–67% in the project areas and by 25% at the catchment level. The study highlights the potential of wetland restoration for improving hydrological services, mitigating flood risks, and enhancing water quality. Restoring and maintaining freshwater ecosystems and their natural sponge functions is crucial for effectively managing water resources and addressing the challenges posed by climate change and land use changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study region: Nenjiang River Basin (NRB), Northeast China. Study focus: Water safety management and sustainable development planning increasingly seek to incorporate the impact of reservoirs on downstream floods and droughts; while the effectiveness of reservoir operation in regulating flood and drought risks under climate change has not been assessed extensively. We focus on discerning whether and to what extent reservoirs can mitigate the risk of hydrologic extremes from the perspective of historical and future climate change. New hydrological insight for the region: We found that coupling reservoir operations into basin hydrological simulation can efficiently improve model capacity to capture both flood and hydrological drought characteristics. The Nierji Reservoir contributed largely to reducing historical flood and drought risks in the NRB. However, the risk of floods and hydrological droughts will increase under future climate change, and reservoir operations cannot completely eliminate the increasing risks of future floods and hydrological droughts. The annual probability of flooding under different future scenarios will exceed 48%, much higher than the 22.2% for the historical period. The frequency of droughts is anticipated to increase by 139.20% under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 370 scenario. To mitigate the increase of flood and drought risks caused by future climate change, it is necessary to further optimize reservoir scheduling principles, thereby improving the basin's resilience to hydrological extremes.

This study outlines a framework for examining potential impacts of future climate change in Poyang Lake water levels using linked models. The catchment hydrological model (WATLAC) was used to simulate river runoffs from a baseline period (1986–2005) and near-future (2020–2035) climate scenarios based on eight global climate models (GCMs). Outputs from the hydrological model combined with the Yangtze River's effects were fed into a lake water-level model, developing in the back-propagation neural network. Model projections indicate that spring–summer water levels of Poyang Lake are expected to increase by 5–25%, and autumn–winter water levels are likely to be lower and decrease by 5–30%, relative to the baseline period. This amounts to higher lake water levels by as much as 2 m in flood seasons and lower water levels in dry seasons in the range of 0.1–1.3 m, indicating that the lake may be wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier. The probability of occurrence for both the extreme high and low water levels may exhibit obviously increasing trends by up to 5% more than at present, indicating an increased risk in the severity of lake floods and droughts. Projected changes also include possible shifts in the timing and magnitude of the lake water levels.

Global perspectives on the complexities of environmental change impacts associated with past and present human activity are needed for the food and water security challenges of the twenty-first century. This is especially true for rivers, for which the onset and persistence of a range in human activities, altering their function and form, have been temporally and spatially variable. Ancient civilisations, states and empires extended geographically to cover sub-continental areas where their river modifying activities became linked to regional Earth system stresses arising from climate and land use change. We present a new interpretative framework for characterising and classifying human impact on river systems, emphasising that this has taken place over decadal to millennial time periods on a sub-continental scale. This 16-element classification and documentation of different human transformations, including land management, urbanisation, industry and engineering activities, is used to explore anthropogenic channel and floodplain disruptions that have followed each other in different sequences in different places. It is significant that these inadvertent and deliberate human interventions have also taken place in parallel with contrasting climatic fluctuations that have been sub-continental in scale and varied in time. We assess the influence of the dominant modes of regional climate variability (monsoons, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Siberian High) on the speed and pattern of river system adjustment to anthropogenic perturbations. Some river civilisations have proved resilient to change given their adaptive management, while others have been overwhelmed by climate-related changes in river morphodynamics. We conclude that integrated socioeconomic, climatic and hydromorphological histories provide usefully instructive antecedents for sensibly managing, as they evolve, the even more serious coupled environmental stresses likely in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate because of global warming during the 20th and 21st centuries have a direct impact on the hydrological cycle as driven by precipitation. However, studying precipitation over the Western Maritime Continent (WMC) is a great challenge, as the WMC has a complex topography and weather system. Understanding changes in precipitation patterns and their groupings is an important aspect of planning mitigation measures to minimize flood and drought risk as well as of understanding the redistribution of precipitation arising from climate change. This paper employs Ward's hierarchical clustering on regional climate model (RCM)-simulated monthly precipitation gridded data over 42 approximately evenly distributed grid stations from the years 2030 to 2060. The aim was to investigate spatial and temporal groupings over the four major landmasses in the WMC and to compare these with historical precipitation groupings. The results showed that the four large-scale islands of Java, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo would experience a significant spatial redistribution of precipitation over the years 2030 to 2060, as compared to historical patterns from 1980 to 2005. The spatial groups were also compared for two future forcing scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, and different groupings over the Borneo region were observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study has been taken up to quantify the possible impact of the climate change on the water resources of Indian river systems within the constraints of the uncertainty of climate change predictions. The study uses the PRECIS daily weather data to determine the spatio-temporal water availability in the river systems. A distributed hydrological model, namely SWAT has been used to simulate all the river basins of the country. The analysis has been performed to evaluate the severity of droughts and floods and thus identify the vulnerable hotspots that may require attention in view of the climate change in various parts of the country. The analysis is also performed on the blue and green water so as to identify the climate change impacts on these sub-components of water that are responsible for environmental functions and biomass production. These results have been made available at http://gisserver.civil.iitd.ac.in/natcom for use by a large cross-section of users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Meiyu rainfall has its in-phase spatial variability over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley (CHRV) in most years, it is distributed in some years like a seesaw to the north and south of the Changjiang River, when the precipitation tends to be nearly normal throughout the valley, which would inevitably increase difficulties of making short-term prediction of the rainfall. For this reason, EOF analysis is made on 15 related stations' precipitation from June to July during 1951-2004, revealing that the EOF2 mode shows largely a north-south seesaw-like pattern, and thereby classifying Meiyu patterns into two types: ‘northern drought and southern flood (NDSF)’ and ‘northern flood and southern drought (NFSD)’. Afterwards, the authors investigated ocean-atmospheric characteristics when these two anomalous types occurred using the NCEP reanalysis (version 1) and the extended reconstructed SSTs (version 2). The results show that in the NDSF years, the low-level frontal area and moisture convergence center lie more southward, accompanied by weaker subtropical summer monsoon over East Asia, with the western Pacific subtropical high and 200 hPa South Asia High being more southward. Both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes are stronger than normal in preceding February; SST is higher off China during boreal winter and spring and the opposite happens in the NFSD years. Also, this seesaw-form Meiyu rainfall distribution might be affected to some degree by the previous ENSO event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]