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The growing number of dangerous weather events, an increase in their duration and amplitude of action leads to sharp fluctuations in agricultural production, thereby creating risks for sustainable development and ensuring food security of the country. The aim of the study is to analyze the peculiarities of the manifestation of hazardous weather phenomena in the regions of the Russian Federation with crop specialization and to substantiate the actual mechanisms of adaptation of regional agrosystems to the consequences of the transformation of natural and climatic conditions. The use of the author's methodology for assessing the level of influence of climatic risks on agricultural production made it possible to establish that the increase in the number of unfavorable meteorological phenomena and the degree of their impact occurs more intensively in the most productive regions of crop specialization. The differentiated impact of climate risks necessitates the creation of regional and sectoral models of adaptation of regional agrosystems, taking into account the peculiarities of natural-resource potential, changes in crop productivity in response to changes in climatic variables, the structure of crop producers in the region. Mechanisms and tools for adapting agricultural systems to the consequences of climate change for the regions involved in the study are formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ever-growing impacts of climate change such as extreme heat, more frequent heavy precipitation events, intensifying tropical revolving storms, and sea level rise continue to pose major threats to India’s critical maritime infrastructure. As the country moves towards its ambition of becoming a leading Blue Economy of the world, a wide range of initiatives have been taken by the central and state governments to expand the maritime sector with a specific focus on the transport sector. However, there is little emphasis being paid on protecting the existing and planned seaport infrastructure against the deleterious impacts of climate change. None of the major ports in India have a dedicated climate action strategy and climate adaptation finds no mention in the policy documents pertaining to the maritime transport sector. In this context, this paper aims to highlight the need for a comprehensive, holistic and dynamic climate change adaptation strategy for India’s port infrastructure including support infrastructure and supply chains. The adaptation strategy, at the individual ports’ level and the national level, must be preceded by rigorous risk assessment studies to identify and prioritise the major challenges arising from climate change at the local level. The paper draws upon international best practices in climate risk assessments and adaptation measures to provide a way forward for Indian ports

This study focuses on climate-related financial risks as a governance issue, which drives our attention to the quality of stakeholders' interactions. The theoretical approach is undertaken through the institutional literature lens, along with the works of Rawls (1971, 2001) and Sen (1992, 2000, 2009), and contributions from the conceptions of co-creation and inclusive development. The applied analysis is carried out by connecting climate change to financial risks under a scenario of uncertainty (Bolton, Despres, Pereira da Silva, Samama, & Svartzman, 2020; TCFD, 2017; Daniel, Litterman, & Wagner, 2019; Carney, 2016; Maier et al., 2016; NGFS, 2018, 2019). The core objective of this study is to present a public policy proposal that aims to support effective international climate- related agreements, from a procedural perspective. To this end, we start by presenting an institution, which is broken down into three propositions. This process enables us to undertake a critical analysis from a technical and normative standpoint. The latter is based on Bush (1987). The main contribution of this study is the rationale underlying that the best set of policies to face climate change issues is that representing agents' strong engagement and commitment. Finally, although the applied analysis focuses on climate change issues, the discussion conducted here can be reproduced in other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this era of global warming the importance of climate risk cannot be understated, and finding ways to reduce climate risk is a topic worthy of study. In this paper, we innovatively examine the role of renewable energy technology innovation on climate risk in China. In addition to their linear relationship, we also investigate the asymmetric and heterogeneous impact, detect the impact channels, and find that (1) increased renewable energy technology innovation can effectively alleviate the climate risk situation. Accordingly, the development of renewable energy technology innovation can make a significant contribution to CR abatement. (2) Pronounced impacts of renewable energy technology innovation on climate risk can be observed in the higher quantiles (75th and 90th) of climate risk. (3) Renewable energy technology innovation is a powerful weapon for eradicating climate risk in provinces with a higher level of government fiscal expenditure. And (4) renewable energy technology innovation has an impact on climate risk by facilitating energy consumption efficiency, which is a necessary mediator. These conclusions inspire us to put forward several corresponding policy implications for better climate risk governance and renewable energy technology innovation development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is a climate-sensitive crop; rainfalls may trigger flowering event occurrences, and extreme rainfall during a flowering day can cause considerable yield reductions. Multiple flowering events can occur in the span of 12 months; the number varies from year to year. This paper introduces a Bayesian network model capable of inferring coffee flowering events in coffee areas in the Pacific Region of Central America based on observed data for coffee flowering and precipitation. The model structure was determined based on expert knowledge, and the model parametrization was learned from 53 years of data registered in the region. Data from four farms in the region were used for model validation. The model's performance in the inference of flowering intensity was good (spherical payoff of 0.78 out of maximal 1.00), and the model was able to depict expected behaviors for single and multiple flowerings. Further, comprehensive new details on the dynamics of multiple flowerings within a crop season were obtained, e.g., that a large flowering event tends to occur more quickly (8 to 10 days) after rain than a small flowering (10 to 13 days). We believe that this Bayesian network model has the potential to evolve and support the development of agricultural index-based insurance to deal with yield losses due to extreme rainfall during flowering. The use of longer farm records for model building may also serve to increase farmers' trust in the reliability of the tool. • Coffee flowerings are affected by extreme climatic conditions. • 53 years of farmers' data were used to build a Bayesian Network flowering model. • Multiple flowering events can be inferred in a crop year. • The model was validated and used to learn about the flowering dynamic. • Model suitable for Pacific Central American areas or others with unimodal rain patterns. • The model can serve as a basis for index-based insurance against rainfall on flowering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Investigate the effect of climate risk on firms' geographical allocation of business activities. • Firms' climate risk exposure has a positive effect on firms' allocation of subsidiaries across different regions. • Cross-regional investment significantly improves investment efficiency when firms are exposed to higher degree of climate risk. This study investigates the effect of climate risk on firms' geographical allocation of business activities. The result shows that climate risk exposure has a positive effect on firms' allocation of subsidiaries across different regions, and the result holds after robustness tests. We further find that the positive relationship between firms' climate risk exposure and cross-regional investment is more pronounced for firms with more cash holdings, with greater geographical proximity between the parent and existing subsidiaries and for non-state-owned enterprises. The economic consequence test suggests that cross-regional investment significantly improves investment efficiency when firms are exposed to higher degree of climate risk. Overall, our paper indicates that firms can change investment strategies in response to climate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the relationship between climate change social norms (CCSN) and corporate cash holdings for U.S. firms. We find that county-level CCSN is significantly positively associated with cash holdings. Our main finding is robust to a battery of robustness tests. In a subsample analysis, we find that firms have relatively low cash holdings in low CCSN counties even when faced with high climate risk. For such firms, the lack of cash buffer could be harmful to a broader set of stakeholders faced with heightened climate risk. We also show that cash holdings are a potential mechanism through which CCSN influences future environmental corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance. Overall, our study suggests that county-level CCSN has significant implications for corporate cash holdings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already having a negative impact on many areas of human activity, affecting life globally. It is more urgent than ever to increase our adaptive capacity to respond to current and future climate change risks. Climate services refer to a specialized sector that encompasses both research and operational activities. This sector is primarily focused on interpreting and communicating knowledge and information about climate risks in a manner that is tailored to meet the specific needs of diverse user communities. Climate services offer a range of specialized outputs, including forecasts, assessments, and advisories, which enable users to make decisions that are based on an understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. The outputs of climate services are designed to help diverse user communities effectively manage risks and capitalize on opportunities arising from climate variability and change. An attempt is made to outline the fundamental elements of climate services and point out their contribution to various aspects of human activity, focusing on their essential role in the adaptability of the priority for action agricultural sector, which appears as considerably vulnerable to the change of considerably susceptible to climate conditions. This article is structured to answer basic questions about climate services in general and to show the specificities of climate services in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UK city decision makers in local governments are coming under increasing pressure to plan for extreme heat events due to the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. While these local authorities are aware of the potential impacts of climate change, many highlight the need for more robust evidence of local climate risks to inform climate planning. Characterising the current and future spatial variability of heat risks can help city decision makers identify vulnerable populations, inform planning, and prioritise action. This paper explores the co-development of a prototype urban heat climate service for UK cities with stakeholders in the pilot city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. This two-tier service uses the latest high-resolution UK Climate Projections to assess changes in impact relevant heat indicators summarised in a bespoke set of factsheets for building awareness (Tier 1). Tier 2 combines this information with socio-economic and built environment data to provide geospatial, decision-relevant, heat risk information at the sub-city scale using a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) and communicated using StoryMaps. This work highlights the importance of considering the different components of risk (hazard, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) when planning interventions for extreme heat to ensure local vulnerabilities are adequately addressed. It also highlights the minimum level of heat risk to which we are now committed locally under current emission pledges. This work also explores the lessons learnt in co-production, the impact this service has had on local decision making and explores options for upscaling.

While methodological choices are critical for solution-oriented adaptation research, the current debate on these is underdeveloped and characterized by simple dichotomies such as bottom-up and top-down as well as vaguely defined concepts such as vulnerability. Adaptation challenges and approaches for addressing them are more diverse than these labels suggest. This paper addresses this deficit by developing a diagnostic framework that helps to identify approaches suitable for addressing a given adaptation challenge. The framework was developed out of the necessity to discuss diverse approaches from natural science, social science and practice in a set of adaptation case studies conducted within the European funded MEDIATION project. Based on these case studies complemented by the literature, we iteratively abstracted typical adaptation challenges researched, typical approaches taken, and empirical, theoretical and normative criteria applied for choosing a particular approach. Our results refine the methodological debate by distinguishing between the three general adaptation challenges of identifying adaptation needs, identifying adaptation measures and appraising adaptation options. Adaptation challenges are further classified according to private and public interest involved, individual or various types of collective action involved, data/model availability, decision-making time horizon, etc. For each type of challenge and approach, we give examples and discuss salient issues. Our results point to the opportunity to apply institutional and behavioural research to support the identification of measures and possibly avoiding barriers in practice. The diagnostic framework also serves as the basis for the forthcoming guidance for assessing vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to be published by the UNEP programme of research on climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2012, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moved from a vulnerability to a risk-based conception of climate change adaptation. However, there are few examples of work that translates this approach into climate change adaptation practice, in order to demonstrate the practical utility of following a risk-based approach to adapting to climate change. The paper explores critically the differing conceptions of vulnerability and risk across the literature relating to disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. The paper also examines a selection of spatially focused climate change vulnerability and risk assessment methodologies in this context. In doing so, we identify issues with the availability of spatial data to enable spatial risk-based climate change assessments. We argue that the concept of risk is potentially favorable in helping cities to understand the challenges posed by climate change, identify adaptation options, and build resilience to the changing climate. However, we suggest that change is needed in the way that practitioners and policymakers engage with risk-based concepts if they are to be embed into climate change adaptation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfed transplanted rice ( Oryza sativa ) is the staple crop of the East India Plateau, with >80% grown in a rice-fallow on terraced and bunded hill-slopes (‘medium-upland’) where it is low yielding and drought-prone despite high rainfall (>1200 mm). Paper I attributed this to inadequate ponding for transplanted rice whilst identifying the potential for risk-free alternative kharif (monsoon period) crops, including direct-seeded rice grown without ponding (‘aerobic’ rice), and for second-cropping with little or no irrigation. Paper II reports research with Tribal smallholders in Purulia District, West Bengal that aimed to evaluate these cropping options using a participatory process that further aimed to ‘improve the situation’ of participating families. The feasibility of short-duration aerobic rice was confirmed experimentally in 2007 and 2008 and in wider adoption by farmers in 2010 when conventional rice could not be transplanted. Best yields in each year were >4 t ha −1 . Mustard ( Brassica juncea ) and wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) planted after medium-duration rice yielded up to 0.95 t ha −1 and 2.6 t ha −1 with one irrigation of 40–50 mm for establishment; but modelling suggests there is enough residual soil water after short-duration (early-maturing) rice to exceed these yields in most years, even without irrigation. Significant P-fertiliser was required with these crops to correct acute deficiency. Rainfed vegetables were grown in the kharif and then adapted by farmers to pre- kharif cropping, and to the rabi (winter) if they had some access to irrigation. Monitoring land-use revealed rapid, sustained adoption of more diverse and intensive cropping, with significant social and economic benefits. We attributed adoption to the participatory process used, that strengthened farmer's capacity to innovate. The systems implemented by farmers needed no expenditure on new water resources, suggesting that comprehensive watershed development (WSD) is not a prerequisite to replacing the rigid rice-fallow with safer climate-responsive systems, although investment in small water harvesting structures may be needed for rabi vegetable crops. The technology evaluated, plus the process of intervention that built capacity, together provide a foundation for wider adoption of less risky cropping systems with greater water productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become a risk that companies, governments and stakeholders must consider. Climate risk affects everything from people's health to the performance of companies. The European Union has approved various legislations and action plans to counteract the effects of climate change in a pioneering strategy. Companies can play a critical role in mitigating climate change and creating a more sustainable future by integrating environmental considerations into their decision-making processes. However, this integration may impact their performance. This paper aims to analyse the effect of climate change on the stock returns of European companies. The study sample consists of 265 companies listed in the Stoxx 600 index between 2015 and 2021 and the methodology used is the econometric method for panel data. The results show that carbon emissions have a negative effect on the performance of companies. Oppositely, a good rating in the environmental pillar has a positive impact on returns. • Companies can help fight climate change by integrating environmental considerations. • Market values low exposure to climate risk. • Carbon emissions have a negative effect on companies' stock returns. • This study raises climate risk awareness for companies and offers measurement tools. • Good rating of environmental score impacts positively stock returns of companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper investigates the effect of carbon risk on corporate investment. • We find carbon risk negatively impacts corporate investment. • It also reduces investment inefficiency. • The effect depends on the firm types and level of a firm's financial constraints. This paper investigates the effect of carbon risk on corporate investment using data from 41 countries for the period 2002–2017. There is strong evidence showing that the impact of carbon risk on corporate investment is negative and statistically significant. Carbon risk also reduces investment inefficiency. We find that carbon-intensive firms are affected more severely compared to carbon-non-intensive ones. Further, the effect depends on the level of a firm's financial constraints, where it is stronger in firms with financial constraints measured by firm size, age, KZ index, and dividend payout policy. Our findings remain consistent in several robustness tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population growth is inevitable in urban areas responsible for climate crises worldwide, and urban development is affected by processes fed by many dynamics. Predicting and planning the growth limits of the city effectively is a critical issue for achieving sustainable urban growth and managing climate risks. The study used the cellular automata-Markov chain method to define development areas regarding natural structure and land use/land cover. It aimed to present a method that can be applied to different urban areas by focusing on effective urban growth management with a climate-sensitive approach. It offered a climate-sensitive approach to determining growth limits according to scenarios. The boundaries of 2030 have been determined for the city of Bursa, which exhibited an increased average summer value of the land surface temperature from 24°C to 45°C between 2012 and 2021, stands out with its natural riches, and shows a rapid urban growth trend. The proposed method modeled the limits of urban growth with a climate-sensitive approach, and the model's suitability was demonstrated by Kappa statistics (Klocation = 0.8884). The determined urban boundary will reduce the rate of the urban built-up area from 86% to 70% by 2030. While the climate crisis threatens all life, urban activities, urban growth, and sprawl continue to increase rapidly. However, the growth of urban areas within certain limits is a critical need for engineering and urban planning. For decision makers, spatially determining the limits of human intervention in nature is an important guideline. Extreme weather events and disasters such as floods, tsunamis, and changes in water levels brought about by climate change can potentially cause chaotic crises. Loss of life and economic crises may occur in possible processes. Therefore, measures must be taken on behalf of humanity and life to adapt to climate effects and keep the level of impact under control. Spatial models based on a wide range of temporal contexts have a structure that broadens our perspective. The study provides an approach that can be implemented in various fields with models produced based on scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to introduce an innovative methodology for performing risk attribution within a multifactor risk framework. We applied this analysis to the assessment of systemic, climate, and geopolitical risks relative to a representative sample of Eurozone banks between 2011 and 2022. Comparing the results to the output of a bivariate approach, we found that contemporaneous tail crises generate combined equity losses exceeding partial analysis estimates. We then attributed the combined risk to each factor and to the effect of their interaction by employing our proposed frequency-based approach. For our computations, we used multivariate GARCH, Monte Carlo simulations, and a suite of Eurozone-specific factors. Our results show that total combined risk is on average 18% higher than traditional systemic risk estimates, that climate risk more than doubled in our period of analysis, and that geopolitical risk surged to over 5% of total combined risk. Our climate risk estimate is in line with the results of the 2022 European Central Bank climate stress test, and our geopolitical risk measure shows a positive correlation with the GPRD and Threats index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between climate risk and stock crash risk and the moderating effect of greenhouse gas emission trading scheme (ETS). Numerous studies have tested stock price crash risk measured by the negative skewness of return distributions in the areas of internal governance mechanism. While interest in environmental performance for sustainable growth of firms has increased, there are no studies on the effect of climate risk on stock crash risk. Thus, we find that climate risk (a firm's greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption) increases stock crash risk, and the positive effect of climate risk on stock crash risk is weakened after introduction of the emission trading scheme. This study theoretically extends the literature on the empirical determinants of stock crash risk, and practically provides investors with proven information about whether climate risk is worth considering during investment decisions. Furthermore, at the level of government policy, we can suggest that a monitoring system is needed to mitigate potential information asymmetry problems in firm with high climate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the World Bank, energy efficiency is a critical facilitator of most Sustainable Development Goals. Its contribution to CO2 emission reduction is astounding. Environmentalists have recently emphasized the essential need to determine energy efficiency causes. This research broadens the debate's horizons by proposing additional possible energy efficiency factors using data from the Chinese economy. From 1990 to 2020, we examined the influence of investment in renewable energy resources, financial inclusion, industrial production, and trade openness on China's energy efficiency and climate risk. Additionally, this study is added to the literature by examining the causal relationships between variables while considering the temporal dimension. The findings indicate that industrial production, financial inclusion, public R&D on renewable energy, and trade openness contribute significantly to China's energy efficiency and climate risk. All other factors, except industrial production, are positively associated with energy efficiency. The path of causality is established from energy efficiency and climate risk to financial inclusion, industrial production, renewable energy, public research and development budgets, and trade openness. According to the findings, changes in energy performance have frequency-changing impacts on all variables. Policymakers believe that the financial system must be strengthened since this will significantly influence renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As socio-natural phenomena, wildfires are exacerbated by climate change and socioeconomic dynamics. However, the role of socioeconomic uncertainty in shaping future wildfire risk and management remains largely neglected. Building on the notion that risk emerges at the intersection of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we conduct an integrative literature review to identify the most significant socioeconomic drivers of wildfire risk in the European geographical and institutional context and bring this together with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) perspectives on plausible socioeconomic dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first study to bridge the gap between wildfire research and socioeconomic scenarios to establish a conceptual understanding of future wildfire risk. The resulting wildfire risk scenario space has two main applications: (i) it acts as a qualitative navigator for factoring socioeconomic uncertainty in model-based wildfire risk assessments, and (ii) it sets the boundary conditions for evaluating the feasibility of management strategies. Sustainable land use practices and profitable agricultural value chains can reduce future wildfire risk (e.g. SSP1), whereas land degradation (e.g. SSP4), and socioeconomic disparities (e.g. SSP3) may increase it. As a result, challenges to future wildfire risk management differ significantly across scenarios, leading to paradoxical situations. In scenarios where vulnerability reduction has significant potential to lower risk, socioeconomic challenges reduce the feasibility of implementing the necessary measures to achieve risk reduction. Similar dilemmas may arise in the context of hazard and exposure. By considering multiple plausible futures, this paper emphasizes the importance of accounting for socioeconomic dynamics in shaping wildfire risk and keeping the design of risk management strategies open and flexible in the face of changing circumstances.

Climate change and natural hazards present a major risk to individuals and communities; however, the current quantitative risk assessment methodologies struggle to capture the wider consequences that arise from society’s complex interconnections. These complex interconnections exist due to the number of mutually dependent systems and mean that impacts on one system can be felt in another. These cascading impacts present a major challenge to climate risk assessments. Climate risk assessments often consider a range of “wellbeing” or “value” domains; for example, in New Zealand the five wellbeing domains are Natural Environment, Human, Economic, Built Environment, and Governance. Existing assessments have sought to characterize the risk to each domain, but do not quantitatively or rigorously consider the interplay between the domains. For example, how does the risk to the human domain change as a result of the impacts to the built environment? This interplay and the ensuing cascading impacts could substantially modify the assessed risk. The change could potentially alter the prioritization and subsequent adaptation plans. In this paper, we show that considering cascading impacts not only increases the magnitude of risk but can shift the prioritization. This highlights the importance of capturing cascading impacts for effective adaptation to climate change.

Climate change affects all sectors of society due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Extreme weather events are already more frequent and intense, generating additional costs for businesses nationally and globally. Climate risk disclosure and management can be challenging due to the complexity of climate impacts and unpredictability of extreme events’ occurrence and location. To address the need for a systematic approach to manage physical climate change, this paper presents a ‘preparedness framework’ for a comprehensive physical climate risk assessment, which is inspired by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures’ (TCFD) framework and based on interviews with representatives from the financial sector in Norway and Sweden on their management of climate risks. We analyze railroads in Norway as a case study due to the sector’s sensitivity to flooding events and heat stress. After assessing Bane NOR’s management of risk associated with flooding and heat stress, we discuss potential improvements regarding knowledge, strategy, management, and tools and metrics at a general level, emphasizing the benefits of improving capacity to handle climate change and the importance of contingency plans. The preparedness framework has helped identify strategies and actions that can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. We suggest that this checklist is sufficiently general to be applicable for other sectors and countries. Practical Implications: Transportation is one of the sectors that may be significantly affected by climate change, and this includes railroads and train travel. Heavy rain events, dry spells, extreme temperatures, and freeze–thaw events can cause problems for railroad operations. We have therefore chosen railroads in Norway, with Bane NOR as the state-owned organization responsible for the administration of the network, as an insightful case for examining the climate risk and vulnerability to climate change. We introduce a ‘preparedness framework’ as a tool for identifying and handling climate risk. The preparedness framework aims to combine science-based information with the user context and their needs according to their activity and vulnerability to climate change impacts. The framework can highlight Bane NOR’s general potential to reduce vulnerability and improve resilience to withstand negative impacts caused by climate change. Building resilience is paramount to business continuity, and involves climate stress-testing, precautionary action, better information carrying less uncertainty, capacity building, and contingency plans in the case of climate-related disturbances affecting train operations. This requires efficient monitoring, closer attention to weather forecasts, good maintenance, as well as implementing measures such as lowering the speed limit for trains in high-risk situations. Contingency plans include provision of alternative transportation when tracks are blocked. We envisage that the preparedness framework’ checklist can be applied to other sectors than railroads and other countries than Norway.

This paper examines the integration of climate risks into structural credit risk models. We focus on applications in housing finance and argue that mortgage defaults due to climate disasters have different statistical features than default due to household-specific reasons. We propose two models incorporating climate risk based on two separate default definitions. The first focuses on default as a response to a decrease in home value, and the second defines default as a consequence of missed mortgage payments. Using mortgage performance data during Hurricane Harvey, we conduct an empirical study whose results suggest that climate events are potentially another source of undiversifiable credit risk affecting homeowners’ ability to make contractual monthly payments. We also show that incorporating this climate-specific default process may capture additional uncertainty in default probability assessments.

The causal link between climate change and food safety is now well established. The role of directors is to govern their organizations. Good governance includes contributing to and overseeing strategy, risk management, legal compliance, and financial management. It also means keeping fresh food safe in their supply chains. Corporate responses to addressing new food safety risks will be critical for ensuring the secure supply of safe food globally. The linkage of climate change to fresh food safety was reviewed and analyzed. Implications are discussed based on the changing governance and regulatory landscape for individual directors, their boards, and organizations in the sector. The review identifies technical impacts as well as emerging governance requirements (including transition risks) for directors. This paper takes the perspective of directors of organizations in the fresh food supply chain (also referred to as the food safety chain) and reviews available and credible knowledge concerning climate risks. Academic and selected grey literature, regulatory position papers, investor and expert opinions, and company annual reports, were reviewed to gain insights into the direct impacts on fresh foods and financial risks from climate change and identify emerging regulatory trends in governance. While there is an identifiable link between physical threats from climate change in this area of agriculture and food production and the management of businesses in the fresh food value chain, the governance of the overall food safety chain is diverse and robust. There is extensive research underway to assess emerging risks, with international laws and standards that enable the mitigation of emerging threats. While manifesting for directors as transitional risks, each of these aspects of governance offers an opportunity for organizations (in the food value or food safety chain) to be proactive about fresh food safety. Understanding the changing expectations of directors concerning the impact of climate change, which is diverse as this review shows, has not been reviewed previously. The current study will help ensure that organizations can prepare for the inevitable climate-related impacts that will challenge the global supply of fresh food and need to be governed at a company level to anticipate these emerging risks successfully. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to model and study the impact of high temperature on mortality in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used mortality and climate data consisting of maximum temperature, variation in monthly temperature, average rainfall, humidity, dewpoint, as well as average air pressure in the country over the period from 2000 to 2019. We have used the Generalized Linear Model with Quasi-Poisson link function to model the number of deaths in the country and to assess the impact of maximum temperature on mortality. We have found that the maximum temperature in the country has a significant impact on mortality. The number of deaths in Pakistan increases as the maximum temperature increases. We found that, as the maximum temperature increase beyond 30 °C, mortality increases significantly. Our results indicate that mortality increases by 27% when the maximum temperature in the country increases from medium category to a very high level. Similarly, the number of deaths in the country increases by 11% when the temperature increases from medium temperature to high level. Furthermore, our study found that when the maximum temperature in the country decreases from a medium level to a low level, the number of deaths in the country decreases by 23%. This study does not consider the impact of other factors on mortality, such as age, medical conditions, gender, geographical location, as well as variability of temperature across the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the challenges and opportunities for Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) to integrate climate change adaptation into development projects, focusing on the potential contribution of community-generated information. The research, undertaken with agricultural NGO FARM-Africa, centres upon subsistence farming communities in the Kenyan Districts of Mwingi and Kitui, where a succession of droughts has blighted agricultural production in recent years. Discussions with FARM-Africa staff highlight how recent climate variability and possibly climate change, is already affecting project-level operations. In particular, the interaction between the secondary impacts of climate hazards and livelihood responses presents a challenge to local staff as there is no obvious means of reflecting the complexity of local experiences and impacts within project planning processes. In response, drawing upon discussions with Farmer Groups, a matrix for each community was developed comprising environmental, social and agro-economic hazard (drought) consequence indicators and corresponding measures under ‘extreme’, ‘severe’ and ‘moderate’ scenarios. This paper concludes that a structured approach to gathering locally held knowledge on the consequences of climate hazards appears to present a potentially valuable means of exploring the complex web of interactions between climate, livelihoods and vulnerability. Such community-generated information can be used to inform future project planning and community decision making, increasing the likelihood of achieving locally appropriate adaptation outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Urban areas face a conundrum, they need to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and consumption of resources, whilst also increasing their resilience to climate change and extreme weather, and improving wellbeing. However, it is widely recognized that well intended intervention to address one of these sustainability objectives in isolation can undermine other objectives. This paper presents a framework to efficiently identify spatial development strategies that provide the best outcomes against multiple objectives. The framework has been applied to London (UK) to identify strategies that can simultaneously: (i) minimize exposure to future heat wave events; (ii) minimize the risk from flood events; (iii) minimize transport emissions; (iv) minimize urban sprawl; (v) maximize brownfield development; and, (vi) prevent development of greenspace that is recognized as important to wellbeing. Prioritizing each objective in isolation leads to considerably different spatial planning structures, exposing conflicts between many objectives. These include tradeoffs between urban heat risk and transport emissions; and also previously undocumented conflicts between minimizing flood and heat risks. Allowing greater flexibility in development density is shown to provide benefits in terms of heat risk reduction, whilst not significantly affecting mitigation objectives. The framework is shown to significantly improve upon the London Spatial Development Strategy for the objectives analyzed. Further analysis identifies optimal spatial strategies to achieve a Low Carbon, Low Risk or Low Density city - however, these cannot be simultaneously maximized. This work shows there are difficult, and often irreconcilable, choices to be made in the spatial planning of sustainable cities. Spatial search and optimization tools strengthen the evidence-base for planning. Rapid identification of development strategies that satisfy, and minimize conflicts between, multiple objectives helps planners to develop strategies that simultaneously improve urban sustainability and reduce the risks from natural hazards. Highlights • Cities must reduce climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions, and improve wellbeing. • A spatial optimization framework has been developed and applied to London, U.K. • It is possible to optimize development for individual objectives. • There are tradeoffs between low risk, low carbon, low living density priorities. • Changing development density can have significant benefits for heat risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We examine the mediating role of interdependent infrastructural systems on WEF security risks in cities. • Urban WEF security hinges on interdependent factors taking place inside and outside city boundaries. • Complex technological and governance failures can amplify negative impacts from extremes. • Conversely, institutional actions and infrastructural supports can mitigate these impacts. • By understanding interdependencies, city actors can mitigate cascading effects on WEF systems. Abstract Across the planet, interacting threats are converging in urban areas beset with pressures brought on by global processes such as urbanization and climate change, and the challenges of creating water, energy and food (WEF) security for their populations. With an increased probability of floods and other extremes, goes a heightened potential for cascading effects as WEF security is at risk from an array of tightly bound interdependencies undergirding the WEF nexus. Such interdependencies heighten risk for generalized disruptions, as, for instance, when heavy precipitation triggers a breakdown of transportation infrastructure, leading to failures in energy generation, and provision of food and water. In this paper, we apply a framework to examine how interdependent WEF infrastructural systems mediate the risks that climate extremes pose to urban WEF security. Given that urban WEF security often hinges on dynamics that take place in regions outside city boundaries, we also examine the effect of this dependence on urban FEW security risk. We compare the pre- and post-event governance and infrastructural conditions shaping WEF security in four cities: Boulder Colorado and New York (USA) illustrative of WEF security risks posed by low probability high impact extreme events; and Accra (Ghana) and Mexico City (Mexico), illustrative of governance and infrastructural arrangements that can fail even under low risk high probability extreme events. We find that complex technological and governance failures can amplify negative impacts from extremes. Conversely, institutional actions and infrastructural supports can mitigate these impacts. By understanding interdependencies, cities can anticipate and avoid cascading effects on WEF systems. We reflect on how commonalities and differences in sociodemographic, economic, technological, environmental, and governance configurations relate to different capacities to mitigate risks and adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]