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Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeast region of China and Huang Huai Hai (3H) region are vital maize production bases in northern China that are crucial for national food security. The absence of phenological data hinders a detailed assessment of the alignment between maize development stages and climatic resources. This study combines the authors' maize phenology data with climate suitability modeling to evaluate maize's climate suitability at different developmental stages in both regions. This study shows that during the maize growth cycle, the average temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and comprehensive climate suitability were 0.77, 0.49, 0.87, and 0.65, respectively, in the Northeast. In contrast, the average temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and comprehensive climate suitability in the 3H region were 0.98, 0.53, 0.73, and 0.70, respectively. Precipitation is a major factor influencing maize growth, with temperature and sunshine impacting growth differently across regions. Temperature significantly affects maize in the Northeast, while sunshine plays a greater role in the 3H region. The Northeast is suitable for drought-resistant maize varieties, and implementing a late harvest policy in Liaoning could enhance maize yield. The 3H region generally has favorable climatic conditions. Apart from certain parts of Henan needing drought-resistant varieties, areas with ample growing seasons can adopt long-duration varieties to maximize thermal resource utilization. Our results have important implications for optimizing maize planting strategies and enhancing regional resilience, aiming to assess meteorological factors' impact on maize growth in key production areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45 % of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10 % of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability using a machine learning technique to investigate this fact. The bioclimatic variables that best explained the climate suitability were Annual Mean Temperature (67.7%) and Temperature Annual Range (21.4%). We found that C. albiceps is climatically suitable for several parts of Europe, except for high altitude areas like the Swiss Alps. In warmer countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the entire coastal territory was the most suitable for the species. Future scenario models show that in these eastern countries and some northern areas, climate suitability has increased. This increase is reinforced when comparing the gains and losses in climate suitability between the present-day model and the future scenario models. These changes are most likely caused by changes in temperature, which is the main explanatory factor among the tested variables, for the climate suitability. As one of the most important species in forensic contexts and a potential myiasis agent, the expansion of C. albiceps to new locations cannot be neglected, and its expansion must be carefully monitored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elephant foot yam and taro are the two important aroids of tropical tuber crops, considered as underutilized in the context of climate change and food security. The present study focused to quantify the future climate suitability of aroids for future climate scenarios 2030, 2050, and 2070 for the two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The district-wise future climate suitability of elephant foot yam and taro using MaxEnt across India is quantified. The percentage increase in climatically suitable area for taro is 49% and the same for elephant foot yam is 46% which is higher compared to those of tropical root crops. A total of 218 districts are identified as highly suitable for the cultivation of elephant foot yam for different RCPs across India. A total of 209 districts are observed as highly suitable for taro cultivation across India for the two RCPs. The information about the districtlevel suitability can assist decision-makers to understand the possible shifts in the climate suitability of aroids in India in the context of food security as they have higher productivity compared to other major food grain crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corn as a dominant and productive cereal crop has been recognized as indispensable to the global food system and industrial raw materials. China's corn consumption reached 2.82 × 108 t in 2021, but its production was only 2.65 × 108 t, and China's corn industry is still in short supply. Timely and reliable corn yield estimation at a large scale is imperative and prerequisite to prevent climate risk and meet the growing demand for corn. While crop growth models are well suited to simulate yield formation, they lack the ability to provide fast and accurate estimates of large-scale yields, owing to the sheer quantity of data they require for parameterization. This study was conducted in the typical rain-fed corn belt, Liaoning province, to evaluate the applicability of our modeling practices. We developed the factors using climate data and MCD43A4 production, and built a county-level corn yield estimation model based on correlation analysis and corn growth mechanisms. We used corn yield data from the county between 2007 and 2017, leaving out 2017 for verification. The results show that our model, with an R2 (the Coefficient of Determination) of 0.82 and an RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 279.33 kg/hm2, significantly improved estimation accuracy compared to only using historical records and climate data. Our model's R2 was 0.34 higher than the trend yield estimation model and 0.27 higher than the climate yield estimation model. Additionally, RMSE was reduced by 300–400 kg/hm2 compared to the other two models. The improvement in performance achieved by adding remote sensing information to the model was due to the inclusion of variables such as monitored corn growth state, which corrected the model predictions. Our work demonstrates a simple, scalable, and accurate method for timely estimation of corn yield at the county level with publicly available multiple-source data, which can potentially be employed in situations with sparse ground data for estimating crop yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of biological invasions at the macroscale or across multiple scales can provide important insights for management, particularly when localized information about invasion dynamics or environmental contexts is unavailable. In this study, we performed a macroscale analysis of the roles of invasion drivers on the local scale dynamics of a high‐profile pest, Lymantria dispar dispar L., with the purpose of improving the prioritization of vulnerable areas for treatment. Specifically, we assessed the relative effects of various anthropogenic and environmental variables on the establishment rate of 8010 quadrats at a localized scale (5 × 5 km) across the entire L. dispar transition zone (the area encompassing the leading population edge, currently from Minnesota to North Carolina). We calculated the number of years from first detection of L. dispar in a quadrat to the year when probability of establishment of L. dispar was greater than 99% (i.e., waiting time to establishment after first detection). To assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on each quadrat's waiting time to establishment, we performed linear mixed‐effects regression models for the full transition zone and three subregions within the zone. Seasonal temperatures were found to be the primary drivers of local establishment rates. Winter temperatures had the strongest effects, especially in the northern parts of the transition zone. Furthermore, the effects of some factors on waiting times to establishment varied across subregions. Our findings contribute to identifying especially vulnerable areas to further L. dispar spread and informing region‐specific criteria by invasion managers for the prioritization of areas for treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact mechanism of human activities on climate suitability is critical for understanding the human-environment nexus. In this study, social network data from Sina Weibo Platform was collected to quantitatively examined the relationship between the seven major types of human activities and climate suitability. The results indicated that the impacts of entertainment, tourism and daily life related human activities on climate suitability are significant (p-value < 0.05). With one-unit (one check-in record/km²) increase of entertainment and tourism related human activities, the coverage rate of climate suitable zone and the length of climate suitable period increase by 0.003% and 0.026 months, respectively. In contrast, one-unit of increase of daily life activities made the Theil entropy index of climate inequity and the length of climate suitable period increase 0.00035 units and shorten 0.014 months, respectively. Moreover, the impact mechanism of human activities on climate suitability showed a significant spatial heterogeneity within regions at different economic level or topographical conditions, which could be explained by the discrepancy of environmental policies, urban form and urban ventilation channel design strategies in China. This work exhibited a further step to new possibilities in clarifying the climate effect of human activities using open-sourced social network data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture. The quantity and quality of crop yield can be affected by water stress, heat stress or frost or by pests and diseases. As climate conditions change, suitability zones for the cultivation of specific crops may shift. For planners and land managers it is important to understand such changes in order to develop short- and long-term adaptation strategies for resource and development planning. In this paper, we present a flexible and comprehensive, rule-based approach for evaluating crop-specific climate suitability. Climate indices are calculated over dynamically estimated phenological phases, and factor suitability functions are defined to relate these phase-specific climate indices to suitability values. The dynamic consideration of crop phenology allows to assess effects of climate-induced shifts in phenological development. To complement the knowledge-based definition of factor suitability functions with empirical data, we introduce an automated procedure for refining this definition within knowledge-based bounds based on observed climate and yield data. The approach was tested and applied for grain maize (Zea mays L.) production in Switzerland. Comparison with independent yield data showed a good agreement with crop-specific climatic suitability, both in terms of temporal and spatial variability. Analysis of phase-specific suitability limitations at three representative sites revealed that suitability during the period 1981–2011 was mostly limited by sub-optimum temperatures and radiation during early and late phases, whereas drought was only an important limitation in exceptionally dry years (e.g. 2003 and 2010). An analysis of constant changes in temperature and precipitation indicated that grain maize suitability at a selected site on the western Central Plateau was more sensitive to temperature changes than to changes in precipitation. This suggests that this crop could benefit from an increase in temperature, not only through shifting towards the temperature optimum, but also by avoiding drought stress through accelerated plant development. However, these positive effects could be counteracted by negative effects of shortened phenology (i.e. reduced biomass accumulation) and heat stress. These results show that the approach offers diverse possibilities for applications, including climate impacts studies, and serves to provide information for the planning of crop adaptation strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In earlier work , NIST developed a climate suitability analysis method to evaluate the potential of a given location for direct ventilative cooling and nighttime ventilative cooling. The direct ventilative cooling may be provided by either a natural ventilation system or a fan-powered economizer system. The climate suitability analysis is based on a general single-zone thermal model of a building configured to make optimal use of direct and/or nighttime ventilative cooling. This paper describes a new tool implementing this climate suitability methodology and its capability to consider an adaptive thermal comfort option and presents results from its application to analyze a variety of U.S. climates. The adaptive thermal comfort option has the potential to substantially increase the effectiveness of natural ventilation cooling for many U.S. cities. However, this impact is very dependent on the acceptable humidity range. If a dewpoint limit is used, the increase is significant for a dry climate such as Phoenix but much smaller for humid climates such as Miami. While ASHRAE Standard 55 does not impose a limit on humidity when using the adaptive thermal comfort option, the necessity of limiting humidity for other reasons needs to be considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate in its spatial and temporal variability is one of the major drivers determining agricultural productivity in a region. In order to develop long-term agricultural policies, planners need to understand the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural suitability zones. In this paper we present a flexible approach for the spatio-temporal evaluation and analysis of climate suitability for different crops. First results of a case study application, aiming at investigating how climate suitability for grain maize production in Switzerland varies in time and space and may shift with climate change, are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Fusarium brachygibbosum Padwick. F. brachygibbosum is a well-characterised fungal plant pathogen with opportunistic behaviour, mostly isolated along with other fungal pathogens in symptomatic hosts. It has been reported from Africa, America, Asia and Oceania where it is has been associated with a wide range of symptoms on approximately 25 cultivated and non-cultivated plant species. The pathogen has been reported in Italy in soil/marine sediments and in quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) and durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) seeds. The pathogen is not included in the EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072. This pest categorisation focused on a selected range of host plant species on which F. brachygibbosum fulfilled Koch0s postulates and was formally identified by multilocus gene sequencing analysis. Host plants for planting, seed of host plants and soil and other substrates originating in infested third countries are main pathways for the entry of the pathogen into the EU. There are no reports of interceptions of F. brachygibbosum in the EU. Host availability and climate suitability factors occurring in the EU are favourable for the establishment of the pathogen in Member States (MSs). Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent the introduction of the pathogen into the EU. Additional measures are available to mitigate the risk of entry and spread of the pathogen in the EU. Despite the low aggressiveness observed in some reported hosts, it has been shown that, in the areas of its present distribution, the pathogen has a direct impact on certain hosts (e.g. almond, onion, soybean, tobacco) that are also relevant for the EU. The Panel concludes that F. brachygibbosum satisfies all the criteria to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. However, high uncertainty remains regarding the distribution of the pathogen in the EU and some uncertainty exists about its potential impact in the EU. Specific surveys and re-evaluation of Fusarium isolates in culture collections could reduce these uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and weather are key resources for tourism. For nature-based tourism, weather determines the timing and variety of activities, while longer-term climate affects the seasonality of both tourism arrivals and the natural environment tourists will experience. This influence is heightened in developing countries, where little adaptation has been implemented to ameliorate unfavourable climate and extreme weather events. The Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) is widely used in the global North to quantify the climate suitability of tourist destinations. Initial studies for South Africa, Lesotho and Namibia reveal the applicability of the index in the African context, despite challenges in data availability and quality. This study presents the first TCI calculations for Zimbabwe, a country relient on outdoor nature-based tourism for attracting tourists and foreign income. The mean annual TCI scores classify Zimbabwe as very good to excellent in climatic suitability for tourism, with scores spanning 75.5–83 (of a maximum 100) for the period 1989–2014. Monthly TCI scores categorize four locations in the Lowveld region as having a winter-peak suitability; the remaining stations have either summer-peak or bimodal shoulder-peaks. This reveals year-round climatic suitability for tourism in Zimbabwe, and highlights the importance of understanding seasonal variability per destination to maximize tourist satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eichhornia crassipes and Salvinia molesta are two of the world's worst aquatic invasive alien plant Species (AIAPS) that have a major impact on the environment, agricultural production and food security. The aim of this study was to understand the current and potential distribution of E. crassipes and S. molesta under climate change in the tropical island of Sri Lanka. The MaxEnt species distribution modelling technique was used to generate predictive models using global distribution data and environmental variables. For future projections, the mean of two best performing climate models was used under two emissions scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for time periods 2050 and 2070. The study revealed that at present, the majority of the aquatic habitats of the country, particularly lowland areas, are vulnerable to the invasion of these two species; however, a striking difference was observed under future RCP scenarios. Aquatic habitats suitable for E. crassipes is predicted to decrease substantially by 2050 and increase again until 2070. The suitable habitats of S. molesta are likely to decrease sharply until 2070. This study provides insights for decision-makers that climate change influences should be considered for long-term management of AIAPS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions.

Tourism Climate Indices (TCIs) have been used extensively in the global North to quantify the climatic suitability of tourist destinations. TCIs have very seldom been applied in the global South. This gap in the literature is significant, due to the considerable growth that tourism sectors in the global South have experienced over recent decades. Moreover, many of these countries seldom have the infrastructure to modify indoor climates and effectively mitigate against poor weather. We present TCI results for 18 tourist destinations across South Africa. With mean annual TCI scores for the period 1995-2015 spanning 76.5 for Port Nolloth to 93 for the Pilansberg, the comparatively favourable climatic conditions in South Africa relative to much of Europe and North America is confirmed. There is distinct seasonality in TCI scores for the majority of study locations, yet the dichotomy between the South African summer and rainfall zones ensure a net balance in climatic suitability countrywide year-round. Time trends in TCI scores over recent decades indicate non-significant change for the majority of locations, and all significant trends indicate slight improvements in the climatic suitability for tourism. These results present a promising outlook of sustained climatic suitability of the region for tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An expanded taxonomic study of the narrowly understood Macromitrium cavaleriei Cardot & Thér. identified four new synonyms, M. cancellatum Y.X.Xiong, M. giraldii var. acrophylloides Müll.Hal., M. handelii Broth. and M. rigbyanum Dixon. With the discovery of the new synonyms, the range of M. cavaleriei is extended to India, Nepal, South Korea and Vietnam. To determine the potential distribution range of the species, we described its macroclimatic niche from its extant distribution with the maximum entropy algorithm modelling program (Maxent), contrasting the impact of different geographic backgrounds on the models. We found that the potential range of the species included central, southern, southwestern China to northern Vietnam, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and India, and northwards to Japan and the Korean Peninsula. This estimation of the potential distribution range is largely confirmed by the herbarium specimens. The predicted climate suitability for M. cavaleriei is higher in the areas where the annual temperature range is about 26°C and precipitation during the warmest quarter, wettest quarter and month, and driest month are 500-600 mm, 500 mm, 200-210 mm, and 50 mm, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hainan Island is endowed with unique climatic and geographical conditions in China. Green orange is a characteristic fruit and plays an important role in local agricultural production of the island. However, few studies have been available regarding the climatic suitability index of green orange planting suitable regions in the island. Based on 30 years (1980 to 2019) of climatic data from 19 meteorological stations in the island, this study established spatial analysis models with topographical data, land use and GIS spatial analysis. Based on climate suitability function, this study established the climate suitability models of temperature, sunshine, precipitation, accumulated temperature and comprehensive suitability model for green orange planting. The Climate suitability index model for green orange planting suitable zoning areas was developed using a natural point segmentation method, and future climate change scenarios were adopted for evaluating the trends of climate suitable areas. The results revealed that the most suitable areas for planting green orange are mainly located at the eastern central region in the island. The climate suitability index ranged from 0.9 to 1.0 in the most suitable regions. The suitable area is mainly distributed in the eastern part, most of the central and western parts of the island, with the climate suitability index ranging from 0.7–0.9. However, the population density in the area is large, and the planting land is limited. The sub-suitable area is mainly located in the coastal areas of the western island, and the high-altitude areas in the central and western regions of the island, with the climate suitability index varying from 0.4 to 0.7. The unsuitable area is mainly distributed in the central mountainous area, with the climate suitability index being 0.0–0.4. The suitability of temperature showed decreasing trend, and the suitability of precipitation gradually moved from the east to the central region under future climate change scenarios. This study is helpful in promoting the development and utilization of agricultural resources and the fine zoning of green orange planting climate suitability in the island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threat of accelerating climate change on species distribution now and in the future is a topic of increasing research interest. However, little work has been undertaken to assess how shifting climates will affect the suitability of tea cultivation. Therefore, we used MaxEnt modelling to project the impact of current and future climatic scenarios on the potential distribution of tea across the four tea-producing countries of China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Projections were made for the years 2050 and 2070 with three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using seven bioclimatic predictors under three global circulation models (GCMs). The current and future habitat suitability for tea predicted by the models produced a high accuracy rate, with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for all tested RCPs under the three GCMs for the four countries. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) values for tea in Sri Lanka, Kenya, India and China were 0.80, 0.91, 0.91, and 0.74, respectively. The kappa values (k) of the current and future models for all four countries ranged from 0.40 to 0.75, which indicates that the overall performance of the model was good. The precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were found to be the most influential variables in Sri Lanka and India, respectively, while annual mean temperature was the most effective contributor for determining the suitability of habitat for tea in Kenya and China. An important proviso is that some existing tea-growing areas will face reduced suitability for future tea cultivation suggesting that by 2050 there will be a drastic reduction in the optimal suitability by averages of 26.2%, 14%, and 4.7% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The optimal suitability will be reduced by 15.1%, 28.6% and 2.6% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively, by 2070. India displays an advantage in projected future climates as it gains optimal suitability areas of 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is substantial global concern over the potential impacts of plant invasions on native biodiversity in protected areas (PAs). Protected areas in tropical island countries that host rich biodiversity face an imminent risk from the potential spread of invasive alien plant species. Thus, the aim of this study was to gain a general understanding of the potential risks of multiple plant invasions in PAs located in the tropical island of Sri Lanka under projected climate change. We conducted a further analysis of a multi-species climate suitability assessment, based on a previous study using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and tested how species invasion may change in protected areas under climate change. We evaluated how the climate suitability of 14 nationally recognized invasive alien plant species (IAPS) will vary within PAs and outside PAs by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings suggest that there will be increased risks from multiple IAPS inside PAs and outside PAs in Sri Lanka in the future; however, the potential risk is comparatively less in PAs. We provide an overview of the species richness of selected threatened vertebrate groups, which can be potentially impacted by IAPS in PAs. The findings of this study highlight important implications for the strategic management of plant invasions in PAs in order to safeguard native biodiversity, with special reference to vertebrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North American grasslands are one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and grassland bird populations have experienced drastic declines over the past half century. Land‐use change is widely accepted as the most persistent threat, and climate change is expected to further compromise grassland integrity. The limited consideration of projected future threats is a significant gap in existing conservation priorities for North America's central grasslands. We identified Grassland Climate Strongholds (predicted to have high climate suitability for grassland birds both today and under 21st century climate change scenarios) and Grassland Climate and Land‐use Strongholds (predicted to have high climate and land‐use suitability for grassland birds today and under 21st century climate change scenarios). Strongholds were mainly distributed across southern Canada, the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, the Oklahoma Panhandle, Texas, and the Chihuahuan Desert. Strongholds vulnerable to land‐use conversion included the Prairie Pothole region and surrounding areas, much of the eastern‐central Plains, the Texas Blackland Prairie, the Western Gulf Coastal Plain, and areas west of the Chihuahuan Desert. A maximum of only 9% of strongholds were protected. Strongholds are critical for full annual cycle conservation of declining grassland birds in North America and complement existing grassland priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]