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The potential role of the impacts of land-cover changes (LCCs) in the Australian climate is investigated within the context of increasing CO2 concentrations and temperature. Specifically, it is explored if possible scenarios for LCC can moderate or amplify CO2-induced changes in climate over Australia. The January climate of Australia is simulated under three different land-cover-change scenarios using a high-resolution regional climate model. The land-cover-change scenarios include a steady-state land cover that is equivalent to current land cover, a low-reforestation scenario that recovers approximately 25% of the trees replaced by grasslands within the last 200 yr, and a high-reforestation scenario that recovers at least 75% of the deforested regions. The model was driven by boundary conditions taken from transitory climate simulations from a general circulation model that included two climate scenarios based on two projected scenarios of CO2 concentration increase. The results show that reforestation has the potential to reduce the projected increase in Australian temperatures in 2050 and 2100 by as much as 40% and 20%, respectively. This cooling effect, however, is highly localized and occurs only in regions of reforestation. The results therefore hint that the potential of reforestation to moderate the impact of global warming may be significantly limited by the spatial scale of reforestation. In terms of deforestation, results show that any future land clearing can exacerbate the projected warming in certain regions of Australia. Carbon-related variables are also analyzed and results show that changes in net CO2 flux may be influenced more by soil respiration than by photosynthesis. The results herein encourage studies on the inclusion of land-cover-change scenarios in future climate change projection simulations of the Australian climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this modulation depends on the future climate pathways. Here, by analyzing two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model, we investigate the potential reduction of SLR, as a result of steric and dynamic oceanographic affects alone, achieved by following a lower emission scenario instead of business-as-usual one over the twenty-first century and how it may be modulated regionally by internal climate variability. Results show almost no statistically significant difference in steric and dynamic SLR on both global and regional scales in the near-term between the two scenarios, but statistically significant SLR reduction for the global mean and many regions later in the century (2061-2080). However, there are regions where the reduction is insignificant, such as the Philippines and west of Australia, that are associated with ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability due to external forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is the Earth's most serious large-scale environmental concern. While the projected changes of global temperatures, rainfall and surface water have been modelled in a sophisticated manner, the impact on groundwater resources is much less well constrained. In southeast Australia, the decrease in rainfall amount and an increase in temperature that are predicted by climate models are generally assumed to reduce the amount of recharge to the groundwater systems. However, the increase in recharge that has resulted from clearing of the native vegetation will almost certainly produce a greater impact on the groundwater system, increasing quantity and potentially improving quality. Additionally, the impact on recharge of changes to rainfall frequency rather than just total amount is not well documented. Overall our understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater systems is insufficiently advanced to make firm predictions. Indirect impacts of climate change, particularly the projected increased demand for groundwater or surface water to supplement surface water supplies also will have a major impact that may be greater than the direct effect of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient, (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns, and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location: East coast of Australia. Methods:Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcate were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcate was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results: Ninety-eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcate . Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pair wise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan, generalist feeder and specialists had a similar community structure to each other, but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty-seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions: We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that, at least in the short term, species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change, however, we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term, more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species, which comprise a large fraction of these communities, will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes, and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical bloom-forming cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Seenaya et Subba Raju is causing increasing concern because of its potential toxicity and invasive behavior at mid-latitudes. This species has recently been identified in several temperate areas and was first reported in France in 1994, but the mechanisms underlying this acclimation process remain to be elucidated. We performed a range of laboratory experiments in an attempt to identify the physiological characteristics that could account for this behavior. We investigated the three following hypotheses: 1) clones of C. raciborskii adapted to temperate climate have been selected as it advanced north, 2) C. raciborskii has high physiological tolerance that allows it to prosper in a wide range of conditions, and 3) changes inclimate (global warming) have favored the development of C. raciborskii in mid-latitudes. Ten strains of C. raciborskii from Australia n=1), Brazil (2), France (2), Germany (1), Hungary (1), Mexico (1), and Senegal (2) were cultured at different temperatures and light intensities. The in vitro growth parameters (μ and Topt) were the same for the tropical and temperate strains. All 10 strains displayed positive net growth in a wide range of temperatures (from 20 to 35°C) and light intensities (from 30 to 400 μmol photons·m−2·s−1), with maximum growth rates at around 30°C and 80 μmol photons·m−2·s−1. This suggests that the colonization of mid-latitudes by C. raciborskii may result from a combination of its ability to tolerate a rather wide range of climatic conditions and the global warming phenomenon, which provides this species with better environmental conditions for its growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]