1. Extratropical Cyclones with Multiple Warm-Front-Like Baroclinic Zones and Their Relationship to Severe Convective Storms.
- Author
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Metz, Nicholas D., Schultz, David M., and Johns, Robert H.
- Subjects
WEATHER ,WEATHER forecasting ,CLIMATOLOGY ,METEOROLOGICAL precipitation ,CYCLONES ,STORMS - Abstract
Extratropical cyclones over the central United States and southern Canada from the years 1982 and 1989 were examined for the presence of two or more (multiple) warm-front-like baroclinic zones, hereafter called MWFL baroclinic zones. Of the 108 cyclones identified during this period, 42% were found to have MWFL baroclinic zones, where a baroclinic zone was defined as a magnitude of the surface temperature gradient of 8°F (4.4°C) 220 km
-1 over a length of at least 440 km. The largest frequency of cyclones with MWFL baroclinic zones occurred during April, May, August, and September. Ninety-four percent of all baroclinic zones were coincident with a magnitude of the dewpoint temperature gradient of at least 4°F (2.2°C) 220 km-1 , and 81% of all baroclinic zones possessed a wind shift of at least 20°, suggesting that these baroclinic zones were significant airmass and airstream boundaries. Although cyclones with MWFL baroclinic zones formed in a variety of ways, two synoptic patterns dominated. Thirty-eight percent of cyclones with MWFL baroclinic zones formed as a cold or stationary front from a previous cyclonic system was drawn into the circulation of a cyclone center, forming the southern baroclinic zone. Twenty-two percent of cyclones with MWFL baroclinic zones formed as a cold front to the north of the cyclone center was drawn into the circulation of the cyclone, forming the northern baroclinic zone. Other synoptic patterns included outflow boundaries (9%), chinook fronts (4%), return flow from the Gulf of Mexico (4%), and unclassified (22%). Although the frequency of severe weather in cyclones was roughly the same for cyclones with and without MWFL baroclinic zones, the presence of the southern baroclinic zone provided a mechanism to focus the location of severe weather, showing their utility for severe weather forecasting. Despite the potential for severe convective storms along these southern baroclinic zones, 51% were not identified on the National Meteorological Center (now known as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) surface analyses, indicating the importance of performing real-time surface isotherm analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2004
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