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This paper studies early arguments in Sweden for combating climate change. We show how scientific results in relation to climate change entered the political sphere as part of the debate on energy in the 1970s, a process we propose to name energysation. We argue that the use of climate science by pro-nuclear political actors served as a way of maintaining a course set by a high-energy society while simultaneously trying to outmanoeuvre the growing environmental anti-nuclear and low-energy movement. When the pro-nuclear power side met with resistance, this led to a displacement of climate change knowledge away from the realm of the national political sphere and specific energy forms, a process we conceptualise as de-energysation. By highlighting conflicts and the political framings of climate change in the early years 1974-1983, we suggest that the history of these frames influences current delay in climate change mitigation and limits the range of actions and ways of addressing the ongoing climate emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By 2045, Sweden is to have zero net emissions of greenhouse gases. To reach this goal, stakeholders involved in planning and construction of Swedish transport infrastructure aim to half their climate impact by 2030. Planning for emission reduction measures require network level studies showing environmental impacts of the infrastructure network. Previous studies do not allow assessment of current hotspots in the infrastructure network, which limits their relevance for decision-support in this question. The aim of this paper is to assess the current annual climate impact and primary energy use of Swedish transport infrastructure by using a methodological approach based on life cycle assessment. The scope includes new construction and management (operation, maintenance, and reinvestment) of existing roads, railways, airports, ports, and fairway channels. The annual climate impact was estimated to 2.8 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents and the annual primary energy use was estimated to 27 terawatt hours. Mainly road and rail infrastructure contributed to these impacts. Environmental hotspots of the infrastructure network were management of the infrastructure stock (particularly reinvestment of road and rail infrastructure) and material production (particularly production of asphalt, steel, and concrete). If climate targets are to be met, these areas are particularly important to address. Additional research on impacts of small construction measures, the size of biogenic carbon emissions (in standing biomass as well as soil carbon), and the use and impacts of asphalt for road construction and management would further increase the understanding of impacts related to Swedish transport infrastructure at the network level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates what made possible Sweden's 'urge to go ahead' in climate policy, an issue particularly interesting given the problem with non-compliance in the climate regime. The material reveals that there was tension regarding how great burden Sweden should shoulder and to what extent emissions reductions should be made domestically. Despite this tension, Sweden decided to have a more ambitious national target (−4 %) than required by the EU burden sharing agreement (+4 %), which allocated the EU's Kyoto Protocol targets within EU-15. It was also decided that emissions reductions should not account for the flexible mechanisms or carbon sinks. Importantly, the national −4 % target was over-implemented (−16 % in 1990-2011). These decisions were institutionalized until the center-right government in 2009 formulated the 2020 targets. Using argumentative discourse analysis, I conclude that what made possible Sweden's comparatively ambitious climate policy was the discourse coalitions (although different in character) formed around primarily two story lines that were blended: Opportunity (in line with the discourse on ecological modernization) and Ecological Justice (in line with the discourse on civic environmentalism). However, the latter was de-emphasized by the center-right government that came to power in 2006, reflecting the influence of a Sacrifice story line and the increased importance of the norm of cost-efficiency. Convincing others about the truthfulness of the Opportunity story line would possibly be effective for making others willing to commit to obligations and actually implement them. However, the diminishing importance of the Ecological Justice story line may affect negatively how Sweden is viewed internationally. If the overarching aim is to get as many countries as possible to commit to and comply with quantitative commitments within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, then it might not only be of importance whether Sweden can 'deliver' but possibly also how one delivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a fundamental challenge for which agriculture is sensitive and vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified relevant information as key to enabling appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation action. Information specifically directed to farmers can be found, for example, in specialized farming magazines. While recent studies examine how national news media frame climate change, less-if any-studies have addressed climate framings and coverage in specialized media. Media framings are storylines that provide meaning by communicating how and why an issue should be seen as a problem, how it should be handled, and who is responsible for it. This paper analyses the framings and coverage of climate change in two Swedish specialized farming magazines from 2000 to 2009. It examines the extent of the climate change coverage, the content of the media items, and the dominant framings underlying their climate change coverage. The study identifies: increased coverage of climate change starting in 2007; frequent coverage of agriculture's contribution to climate change, climate change impacts on agriculture, and consequences of climate politics for agriculture; and four prominent frames: conflict, scientific certainty, economic burden, and action. The paper concludes that climate change communicators addressing farmers and agricultural extension officers should pay attention to how these frames may be interpreted by different target audiences. Research is needed on how specialized media reports on climate-related issues and how science-based climate information is understood by different groups of farmers and which other factors influence farmers' engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of using climate metrics to estimate carbon dioxide equivalent emissions has long been subject to scientific discussion. One strand of this literature has analysed whether the choice of metric affects the relative cost-effectiveness of options for climate change abatement, but there has been little discussion on the effect of metric choices on cost-effective abatement of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs). These NTCFs are air pollutants primarily regulated by policies outside the climate policy arena and their estimated carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are not typically considered in the evaluation of cost-effective abatement. However, the attention to NTCFs as climate forcers has increased during the last decade. The objective of this paper is to identify whether the relative cost-effectiveness of different NTCF abatement options is robust to climate metric choices. We assess nine plausible NTCF abatement options available in Sweden (with negligible effect on long-lived GHG emissions) and evaluate the robustness of the ranking of these, according to their estimated cost-effectiveness. Different metric designs are considered as well as climate impact uncertainty of NTCFs, with corresponding uncertainty in metric values. The results indicate that the choice of metric has little effect on the ranking of the options according to their cost-effectiveness, with options affecting NOx indicated as an exception. This suggests that the choice of metric utilised when calculating cost-effectiveness of NTCF abatement options is likely to have minor effect on which NTCF abatement options should be targeted for policy interventions (if NOx emissions are not significantly affected). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Torneträsk in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500–2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April–August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63–64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Torneträsk. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Torneträsk tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century ( p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has already affected and will continue to affect physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. For example, annual snow cover extent in the northern hemisphere has decreased by about 10% since 1966, and in Sweden, the last decade was wetter and warmer than the preceding 30-year period. These changes will affect many aspects of utilisation patterns that are dependent on the physical environment, such as alpine winter tourism. In this paper, we discuss the future development of the downhill skiing industry in Sweden. We first review trends in alpine winter tourism in relation to climate change together with regional projections of climate change. Secondly, we examine trends in climate parameters relevant to alpine winter tourism in Sweden during the last 30 years. Thirdly, we take these parameters, together with regional projections of climate change, and predict effects on the number of skiing days in order to estimate the monetary loss for the skiing industry in Sweden. The analyses show predicted losses that are larger than current ski-ticket sales. Adaptation strategies such as the development of year-round tourist activities should be developed as soon as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the two most advanced Swiss AIJ (Activities Implemented Jointly) projects. Key success and failure factors are derived from practical experience in developing and implementing these projects. The assessment of uncertainties shows that the counterfactual nature of baselines forms the most relevant factor for uncertainty with regard to climate benefits. Different strategies to minimise this uncertainty are described. For the investor,the performance of the project during its lifetime is the main source of uncertainty, since this will usually have a direct influence on the amount of emission reduction credits produced. Consequently, adequate legal structure and incentives for project hosts are crucial to ensure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies from the United States (U.S.) show that opposition to climate policy is strong among some Christian groups, especially White evangelical Protestants. Much of this opposition is channelled through organisations such as the Cornwall Alliance, which argue against climate measures on religious, economic and what they claim to be science-based grounds. In the present study, we investigated to what extent these convictions were present among Swedish evangelical denominations. Representatives from the Evangelical Free Church, the Pentecostal Alliance, the Swedish Alliance Mission, and the Seventh-day Adventist Church were interviewed to identify the denominations' views on the scientific underpinnings of climate change and the moral implications of climate policy. Our data show that the denominations' views differ markedly from those expressed by climate-oppositional evangelical groups in the U.S. The denominations held homogenous views on the legitimacy of climate science, expressed a clear biblical mandate for climate policy based on the notion of human stewardship, and believed that climate change was inextricably linked to poverty and, thus, had to be addressed. Our results point to the need for further studies on the factors behind acceptance and denial of climate science within and between faith-based and other communities in different countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over the past quarter century, the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has increased in most European nations. However, the number of humans stricken by the disease varies from year to year. A method for predicting major increases and decreases is needed. Methods: We assembled a 25-y database (1984--2008) of the number of human TBE victims and wildlife and climate data for the Stockholm region of Sweden, and used it to create easy-to-use mathematical models that predict increases and decreases in the number of humans stricken by TBE. Results: Our best model, which uses December precipitation and mink (Neovison vison, formerly Mustela vison) bagging figures, successfully predicted every major increase or decrease in TBE during the past quarter century, with a minimum of false alarms. However, this model was not efficient in predicting small increases and decreases. Conclusions: Predictions from our models can be used to determine when preventive and adaptive programmes should be implemented. For example, in years when the frequency of TBE in humans is predicted to be high, vector control could be intensified where infested ticks have a higher probability of encountering humans, such as at playgrounds, bathing lakes, barbecue areas and camping facilities. Because our models use only wildlife and climate data, they can be used even when the human population is vaccinated. Another advantage is that because our models employ data from previously-established databases, no additional funding for surveillance is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate policy and technology learning on future investments in the Swedish power sector. Methodologically we assess the lifetime engineering costs of different power generation technologies in Sweden, and analyze the impact of carbon pricing on the competitive cost position of these technologies under varying rate-of-return requirements. We also argue that technological learning in the Swedish power sector – not the least in the case of wind power – is strongly related to the presence of international learning and R&D spillovers, and for this reason capacity expansions abroad have important influences of the future cost of power generation in Sweden. The results suggest that renewable power will benefit from existing EU climate policy measures, but overall additional policy instruments (e.g., green certificate schemes) are also needed to stimulate the diffusion of renewable power. Moreover, under a recent European Commission scenario and using estimated learning rates for wind power and the combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), wind power gains considerable competitive ground due to international technology learning impacts. These latter results are, however, very sensitive to the assumed learning-by-doing rates for wind power and CCGT, respectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Torneträsk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Torneträsk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this article is to investigate the construction of climate risks and to identify how it intersects with different forms of discursive categories in house owner narratives. Interviews with 44 house owners in four regions exposed to climate risks in Sweden were analyzed using the narrative method. I use intersectional risk theory, in which risk is constructed in relation to different forms of power structure, to interpret the narratives. The results indicate that narrators do risk in different ways in relation to the master narratives of the climate threat and individual environmental responsibility, which dominate the official rhetoric in Sweden. Three risk narratives are revealed in the interviews: (1) the master narrative of 'the responsible house owner,' (2) the alternative narrative of 'the vulnerable house owner', and (3) the counter-narrative of 'the safe house owner.' The climate risks talked about could relate to the narrator's own house or to risks at a local or global level. The results indicate that different intersections of class, gender, age, and place shape different ways of positioning in relation to risk, by describing oneself as more or less aware of and exposed to climate risks. The analysis also reveals that different intersections of social structures lead to shifting prerequisites for house-owner preparedness towards preventing and managing climate risks. Such an understanding is important when trying to comprehend why some house owners adapt their homes to a changed climate while others do not. Aspects like these are necessary to consider while, e.g. deciding on policy and writing information and guidelines on adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditions under which policy beliefs and influential actors shape collaborative behaviour in governance networks are not well understood. This article applies exponential random graph models to network data from Finland and Sweden to investigate how beliefs, reputational power and the role of public authorities structure collaboration ties in the two countries' climate change governance networks. Results show that only in Finland's conflictual climate policy domain do actors collaborate with those with similar beliefs and with reputational power, while only in Sweden's consensual climate policy domain do public authorities play central impartial coordinating roles. These results indicate that conflict is present in a governance network when beliefs and reputational power determine collaboration and that it is absent when public authorities occupy central roles. They also suggest that relative success in climate policy action is likely to occur when public authorities take on network manager roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Investigation of two residential buildings in a sub-Arctic region. • One building subject of energy-retrofit, one maintained the original envelope. • No significant improvement to the heat supply after energy efficiency measure. • The thermal indoor climate showed signs of overheating. • The heating system should be reviewed when an energy-retrofit is done. There is a need to improve the understanding and the knowledge of energy efficiency measures for residential buildings in sub-Arctic climate regions. This paper presents an investigation of two identical multi-family residential buildings in the sub-Arctic climate of northern Sweden, before and after renovation. During the renovation, additional insulation of the external walls and new windows were installed in one building, while the other building retained its original envelope. The energy usage data for the past four heating seasons were collected, including data from before and after the renovation. Detailed thermal indoor climate data were gathered for specific months. The data from the two separate buildings showed that the renovation did not result in a significant improvement in energy usage. Prior to the renovation, the energy usage data showed a difference of 2–3% in the heat supply between the two buildings, and this difference persisted after the renovation. On the other hand, the indoor air temperature was raised. The renovated building had an indoor air temperature which was 2 °C higher than the not yet renovated building. IDA ICE models were constructed and validated with the measured data to investigate how a lower indoor air temperature would affect the energy usage and indoor thermal climate. The models showed that with a reduction in the indoor air temperature by 2 °C after the renovation, the thermal climate would maintain an acceptable level according to PMV/PPD standards, and would result in a 13–14% reduction of the heat supply during the cold months. With an annual reduction of 15%, the heat supply could be reduced by 270 MWh per year for the whole area where the buildings are located. This clearly demonstrates the importance of adjusting the heating system after an energy efficiency measure has been performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate change has been predicted to disrupt local adaptation in many perennial plants, such as forest trees, but the magnitude and location of these effects are thus far poorly understood. Here, we assess local adaptation to current climate in European aspen (Populus tremula) by using environmental association analyses to identify genetic variants associated with two representative climate variables describing current day variation in temperature and precipitation. We also analysed patterns of genetic differentiation between southern and northern populations and observe that regions of high genetic differentiation are enriched for SNPs that are significantly associated with climate. Using variants associated with climate, we examined patterns of isolation by distance and environment and used spatial modelling to predict the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to two scenarios of future climate change. We show that climate conditions at a northern reference site will correspond to climate conditions experienced by current day populations located 4–8 latitude degrees further south. By assessing the relationship between phenotypic traits and vegetative fitness, we also demonstrate that southern populations harbour genetic variation that likely would be adaptive further north under both climate change scenarios. Current day populations at the lagging edge of the distribution in Sweden can therefore serve as sources for introducing adaptive alleles onto northern populations, but the likelihood of this largely depends on naturally occurring levels of gene flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Size-resolved aerosol trends were investigated based on a 17-year data set (2000–2017) from the rural background site Aspvreten located in southern Sweden (58.8 ∘ N, 17.4 ∘ E). Cluster analysis of the size distributions was performed to aid in the interpretation of the data. The results confirm previous findings of decreasing aerosol mass and number during the last decades as a result of reduced anthropogenic emissions in Europe. We show that both particle modal number concentration and size have substantially been reduced during the last 17 years. Negative trends in particle number concentration of about 10 cm -3 yr -1 are present for nuclei, Aitken, and accumulation modes. In total, integral particle number concentration has decreased by 30 %, from 1860 to ca. 1300 cm -3. The reduction in modal number concentration is accompanied by a decrease in modal size, and this decrease is largest for the accumulation mode (2 nm yr -1 or about 17 % for the whole period). These reductions have resulted in a decrease in submicron particle mass (< 390 nm) by more than 50 % over the period 2000–2017. These decreases are similar to observations found at other stations in northern Europe. Although all size classes show a downward trend as annual averages, we also show that observed trends are not evenly distributed over the year and that a rather complex picture emerges where both sign and magnitude of trends vary with season and size. The strongest negative trends are present during spring (accumulation mode) and autumn (Aitken mode). The strongest positive trends are present during summer months (Aitken mode). The combined trajectory and data analyses do not present evidence for an increase in new particle formation formed locally, although some evidence of increased new particle formation some distance away from the receptor is present. Observed aerosol size distribution data, together with an adiabatic cloud parcel model, were further used to estimate the change in cloud droplet concentration for various assumptions of updraught velocities and aerosol chemical composition. The results indicate a substantial increase in the atmospheric brightening effect due to a reduction in cloud reflectivity corresponding to 10 %–12 % reduction in cloud albedo over the period 2000–2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine climate impact from diet across background and sociodemographic characteristics in a population-based cohort in northern Sweden.Design: A cross-sectional study within the Västerbotten Intervention Programme. Dietary data from a 64-item food frequency questionnaire collected during 1996-2016 were used. Energy-adjusted greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) for all participants, expressed as kg carbon dioxide equivalents/day and 4184 kJ (1000 kcal), were estimated using data from life cycle analyses. Differences in background and sociodemographic characteristics were examined between participants with low and high GHGE from diet, respectively. The variables evaluated were age, BMI, physical activity, marital status, level of education, smoking, and residence.Setting: Västerbotten county in northern Sweden.Participants: In total, 46 893 women and 45 766 men aged 29-65 years.Results: Differences in GHGE from diet were found across the majority of examined variables. The strongest associations were found between GHGE from diet and age, BMI, education, and residence (all P < 0·001), with the highest GHGE from diet found among women and men who were younger, had a higher BMI, higher educational level, and lived in urban areas.Conclusions: This study is one of the first to examine climate impact from diet across background and sociodemographic characteristics. The results show that climate impact from diet is associated with age, BMI, residence and educational level amongst men and women in Västerbotten, Sweden. These results define potential target populations where public health interventions addressing a move towards more climate-friendly food choices and reduced climate impact from diet could be most effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the role of actor relations in advancing climate policymaking and argues that attempts to understand decisions to decarbonise in a green state should explore the institutional conditions for policymaking. The article explores the climate policy model in Sweden in terms of the societal actors included in the policy process, the nature of this inclusion, and its relevance for the prospects of decarbonisation. It uses three perspectives in the analysis: corporatism, sustainable transition studies, and ecological democracy. The findings largely support existing research that states characterised by corporatist policymaking are suited for environmental governance and for climate policymaking. However, as a model of governance of actor relations, the Swedish climate policymaking model has both its merits and demerits. Although it has potential to reach decarbonisation objectives, it does this in the context of including mainly established economic interests, that is, incumbents. This stands in contrast with what is argued in sustainable transition studies that incumbents obstruct change, in the Swedish case they are viewed as potential change agents. Finally, although the character of the actor relations is deliberative, it is a top–down exclusive kind of deliberation that remains far from ideals of ecological democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in river flow may appear from shifts in land cover, constructions in the river channel, and climatic change, but currently there is a lack of understanding of the relative importance of these drivers. Therefore, we collected gauged river flow time series from 1961 to 2018 from across Sweden for 34 disturbed catchments to quantify how the various types of disturbances have affected river flow. We used trend analysis and the differences in observations versus hydrological modeling to explore the effects on river flow from (1) land cover changes from wildfires, storms, and urbanization; (2) dam constructions with regulations for hydropower production; and (3) climate‐change impact in otherwise undisturbed catchments. A mini model ensemble, consisting of three versions of the S‐HYPE model, was used, and the three models gave similar results. We searched for changes in annual and daily stream flow, seasonal flow regime, and flow duration curves. The results show that regulation of river flow has the largest impact, reducing spring floods with up to 100% and increasing winter flow by several orders of magnitude, with substantial effects transmitted far downstream. Climate changed the total river flow up to 20%. Tree removal by wildfires and storms has minor impacts at medium and large scales. Urbanization, on the contrary, showed a 20% increase in high flows also at medium scales. This study emphasizes the benefits of combining observed time series with numerical modeling to exclude the effect of varying weather conditions, when quantifying the effects of various drivers on long‐term streamflow shifts. Key Points: Regulation has the most impact on river flow, followed by climate and urbanization, while land‐cover changes only have minor and local effects.For sustainable river management we recommend attention to direct effects from climate change rather than indirect land‐cover changes.Detecting change in processes of river‐flow generation is facilitated by analyzing model residuals, to avoid weather impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The groundwater contamination risk in future climates was investigated at three locations in Sweden. Solute transport penetration depths were simulated using the HYDRUS-1D model using historical data and an ensemble of climate projections including two global climate models (GCMs), three emission scenarios and one regional climate model. Most projections indicated increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration until mid-century with a further increase at end-century. Results showed both increasing and decreasing groundwater contamination risks depending on emission scenario and GCM. Generally, the groundwater contamination risk is likely to be unchanged until mid-century, but higher at the end of the century. Soil and site specific relationships between Δ(P – PET) (i.e. change in the difference between precipitation, P, and potential evapotranspiration, PET) and changes in solute transport depths were determined. Using this, changes in solute transport depths for other climate projections can be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To meet the Paris agreement, CO2 emissions from road transport need to be severely lowered. In Sweden, as in many other countries, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing rapidly. This has led to a recurring debate on whether EVs will help reduce climate impact or not. The aim of this article is to analyze the Swedish debate on the climate impact of EVs with respect to framing and validity of the arguments. Thirty-one opinion pieces published between 2010 and 2018 are studied. Two discourse coalitions are identified; supporters and opponents of EVs. The opponents' main argument is that EVs use imported, coal-fired electricity with high CO2 emissions. The supporters argue that EVs use Swedish, fossil-free electricity, thereby causing no CO2 emissions. Neither coalition's arguments are wholly valid, but nor are they wholly false. Swedish electricity production is largely fossil-free, but, at times of high electricity demand, fossil-based electricity is imported. Thus, Swedish EVs often use fossil-free electricity, but sometimes they do not. This is likely to continue with a large-scale transition to electromobility. Both discourse coalitions motivate their positions with a desire to reduce climate impact. EV supporters are optimistic about technology development and frame EVs as fundamental for future carbon-neutral possibilities. While EV opponents are pessimistic, their framing of the issue implies a need for society to assume responsibility for sustainability in a wide system perspective. This should be acknowledged and used by policy-makers to ensure that EVs' full potential for climate change mitigation be realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of literature argues that subjective factors can more accurately explain individual adaptation to climate change than objective measurers of adaptive capacity. Recent studies have shown that personal belief in climate change and affect are much better in explaining climate awareness and action than income, education or gender. This study focuses on the process of individual adaptation to climate change. It assesses and compares the influence of cognitive, experiential and structural factors on individuals’ views and intentions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study comes from a survey with 836 forest owners in Sweden. Ordinal and binary logistic regression was used to test hypotheses about the different factors. Results show that cognitive factors—namely personal level of trust in climate science, belief in the salience of climate change and risk assessment—are the only statistically significant factors that can directly explain individuals’ intention to adapt to climate change and their sense of urgency. Findings also suggest that structural or socio-demographic factors do not have a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among Swedish forest owners. The study also offers valuable insights for communication interventions to promote adaptation. Findings strongly suggest that communication interventions should focus more strongly on building trust and addressing stakeholders’ individual needs and experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In a holistic view of care, the family is important for the patient as well as for the staff and integration of family members in health care is a growing trend. Yet, family participation in the care is sparsely investigated and valid assessment instruments are needed. Setting: Data were collected from 200 family members participating in an intervention study at an emergency department (ED) in Sweden. Method: The Person-centred Climate Questionnaire - Family (PCQ-F) is a measure for how family members perceive the psychosocial climate. PCQ-F is a self-report instrument that contains 17 items assessing safety, everydayness and hospitality - three subscale dimensions that mirror the Swedish patient version of the questionnaire, the PCQ-P. Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Swedish version of the PCQ-F in an ED context. Results: The psychometric properties of the PCQ-F were evaluated using statistical estimates of validity and reliability and showed high content validity and internal consistency. Cronbach's Alpha was >0.7 and item-total correlations were >0.3 and <0.7. Conclusion: In terms of psychometrics, the findings in this study indicate that the PCQ-F can be used with satisfactory validity and reliability to explore to what degree family members perceive ED settings as being person-centred, safe, welcoming and hospitable within an everyday and decorated physical environment. As the PCQ already exists in a valid and reliable patient (PCQ-P) and staff (PCQ-S) version, this new family member version is a significant addition to the literature as it enables further comparative studies of how diverse care settings are perceived by different stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues and examine how nurses perceive their role in contributing to the process of sustainable development. Background Climate change and its implications for human health represent an increasingly important issue for the healthcare sector. According to the International Council of Nurses Code of Ethics, nurses have a responsibility to be involved and support climate change mitigation and adaptation to protect human health. Design This is a descriptive, explorative qualitative study. Methods Nurses ( n = 18) were recruited from hospitals, primary care and emergency medical services; eight participated in semi-structured, in-depth individual interviews and 10 participated in two focus groups. Data were collected from April-October 2013 in Sweden; interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis. Results Two main themes were identified from the interviews: (i) an incongruence between climate and environmental issues and nurses' daily work; and (ii) public health work is regarded as a health co-benefit of climate change mitigation. While being green is not the primary task in a lifesaving, hectic and economically challenging context, nurses' perceived their profession as entailing responsibility, opportunities and a sense of individual commitment to influence the environment in a positive direction. Conclusions This study argues there is a need for increased awareness of issues and methods that are crucial for the healthcare sector to respond to climate change. Efforts to develop interventions should explore how nurses should be able to contribute to the healthcare sector's preparedness for and contributions to sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Senior citizens get around, to a large extent, as pedestrians, and safe walking is desirable for senior citizens allowing them to stay mobile, independent and healthy in old age. Senior citizens are over-represented in injury statistics, and fall-related injuries are common. The aim of this study was to investigate fall-related injuries including healthcare costs among senior citizen pedestrians injured when walking in public outdoor environments and to describe their self-reported causes and suggested preventive strategies. The data were based on a combination of information from injury data and a questionnaire. Three hundred senior citizens attended one emergency department after sustaining injuries from pedestrian falls; 60% suffered nonminor injuries, mostly fractures. One-fifth of the pedestrians were hospitalised for an average of 8 days with an indirect hospital cost of 6.2 million EUR (55 million SEK). Environmental factors such as ice were the most commonly described cause of the injury incident. Forty per cent of the respondents indicated that the municipality was responsible for the cause of the injury incident. Fewer respondents mentioned their own responsibility as a preventive strategy. Thirty per cent described a combination of improvements such as better road maintenance, changes in human behaviour and use of safety products as preventive strategies. It is of great importance to highlight general safety, products and preventive strategies to minimise injury risks, so that pedestrians can safely realise the known health benefits of walking and thereby limit healthcare costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As there is an increasing interest for setting up vineyards and wineries in Sweden, a cost analysis is becoming necessary. In this study, we assessed the potential for wine production in Sweden. The estimated annual costs varied from €15.1/per L for production of 1800 L wine per ha to €41.9 for 525 L per ha. For an annual production of 1800 L per ha potentially achieved in an established vineyard, the capital requirement is €730,000. It would take 6 years for the investment to be paid off if the wine was sold for €37.5 per L. The high production costs mean that the only viable option for success is to orientate production towards the exclusive upper segmet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the number one cause of death globally and evidence is steadily increasing on the role of non-traditional risk factors such as meteorology and air pollution. Nevertheless, many research gaps remain, such as the association between these non-traditional risk factors and subtypes of CVD, such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and AMI hospitalisations using a case-crossover design in Gothenburg, Sweden (1985–2010). A secondary analysis was also performed for out-of-hospital ischemic heart disease (IHD) deaths. Susceptible groups by age and sex were explored. The entire year as well as the warm (April−September) and cold periods (October–March) were considered. In total 28 215 AMI hospitalisations (of 22 475 people) and 21 082 out-of-hospital IHD deaths occurred during the 26-year study period. A linear exposure-response corresponding to a 3% and 7% decrease in AMI hospitalisations was observed for an inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in the 2-day cumulative average of temperature during the entire year (11°C) and the warm period (6°C), respectively, with and without adjustment for PM10, NO2, NOx or O3. No heat waves occurred during the warm period. No evidence of an association in the cold period nor any association between temperature and IHD deaths in the entire year, warm or cold periods - with and without adjusting for PM10, NO2, NOx or O3 was found. No susceptible groups, based on age or sex, were identified either. The inverse association between temperature and AMI hospitalisations (entire year and warm period) in Gothenburg is in accordance with the majority of the few other studies that investigated this subtype of CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare some different approaches to estimating daily mean temperature (DMT). In many countries, the routine approach is to calculate the average of the directly measured minimum and maximum daily temperature. In some, the maximum and minimum are obtained from hourly measurements. In other countries, temperature readings at specific times throughout the day are taken into account. For example, the Swedish approach uses a linear combination of five temperature readings, including the minimum and the maximum, with coefficients that depend on longitude and month. We first look at data with very high temporal resolution, and compare some different approaches to estimating DMT. Then, we compare the Swedish formula to various averages of the daily minimum and maximum, finding the latter method being substantially less precise. We finally compare the Swedish formula to hourly averages, and find that a recalibrated linear combination improves estimation accuracy. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on a sediment record from a small lake within the subarctic wetland complex Stordalen in northernmost Sweden covering the last 1000 years. Variations in the content of minerogenic material are found to follow reconstructed variations in the activity of the Sun between the 13th and 18th centuries. Periods of low solar activity are associated with minima in minerogenic material and vice versa. A comparison between the sunspot cycle and a long instrumental series of summer precipitation further reveals a link between the 11 yr solar cycle and summer precipitation variability since around 1960. Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity. Our results suggest that the climate responds to both the 11 yr solar cycle and to long-term changes in solar activity and in particular solar minima, causing dry conditions with resulting decreased runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent studies have shown an association between weather and climatic factors with mortality, cardiovascular and infectious diseases. We used historical data to investigate the impact of seasonal temperature and precipitation on total mortality in Uppsala, Sweden, during the first two stages of the demographic transition, 1749-1859. Design: We retrieved mortality and population numbers of the Uppsala Domkyrka parish from digitised parish records and obtained monthly temperature and precipitation measures recorded in Uppsala during that time. Statistical models were established for year-to-year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation, adjusting for longer time trends. In a second step, a model was established for three different periods to study changes in the association of climate variability and mortality over time. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results: Precipitation during spring and autumn was significantly associated with annual mortality (spring RR 0.982, CI 0.965−1.000; autumn RR 1.018, CI 1.004−1.032, respectively, per centimetre increase of precipitation). Higher springtime temperature decreased annual mortality, while higher summer temperature increased the death toll; however, both were only borderline significant (p−0.07). The significant effect of springtime precipitation for mortality was present only in the first two periods (1749-1785 and 1786-1824). On the contrary, the overall effect of autumn precipitation was mainly due to its relevance during the last period, 1825-1859 (RR 1.024, CI 0.997−1.052). At that time, higher winter precipitation was found to decrease mortality. Conclusions: In urban Uppsala, during the 18th and 19th century, precipitation appeared to be a stronger predictor for mortality than temperature. Higher spring precipitation decreased and higher autumn precipitation increased the number of deaths. However, this association differed before and during the early stages of industrialisation. Further research shall take age-specific differences into account, as well as changes in socio-economic conditions during that time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and weather variation affect agricultural productivity, with consequences for both overall food availability and the wider economy. Knowledge of these processes has implications for understanding historical demography and predicting effects of climate change on societies. We studied the relationships between ambient temperature and the yields and prices of principle grains (wheat, rye, barley oats) in Sweden from 1803 to 1914. We found that the annual general crop index (a measure of overall crop yield) correlated negatively with the annual average price of the four grains. Overall temperature during the period of crop growth was related positively to general crop index and negatively to average crop price. At the level of month of crop growth, when the relationship between temperature and general crop index was most positive, that between temperature and average crop price was most negative. This strong structured relationship was found to be consistent when yields of each crop were considered separately, and indicates that the relationships between crop yield and crop price were to a large extent due to the influence of ambient temperature. Price correlations between pairs of crop species were in all cases greater than the correlation of yields. Within individual crops, correlations between price and yield were stronger for those crops for which imports were not available, and which were therefore subject to the weakest influence from rising globalisation. Our analyses demonstrate the sensitivity of historical agriculture to climatic factors, and the extent to which this affected the wider economy. It is likely that the susceptibility of agriculture to climatic risks was ascended by the concomitant climate regime, the ‘Little Ice Age’. Moreover, our study period spans the period of rising globalisation, and suggests a weakening influence of prevailing weather on crop prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models are mathematical models that describe the temporal evolution of climate, oceans, atmosphere, ice, and land-use processes, across a spatial domain via systems of partial differential equations. Because these models cannot be solved analytically, the model output is generated numerically over grid boxes. Regional climate models (RCMs), or the dynamic downscaling of global climate models to regional scales, are often used for planning purposes, and it is important to assess carefully the uncertainty of such models. We evaluate the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) RCM by comparing its model output at the grid box level, with the predictions obtained from two observation-driven spatio-temporal statistical models. The 'downscaling model' combines the spatially and temporally smoothed climate model output with temperature observations at synoptic stations in a spatio-temporal linear statistical model. The 'upscaling model' describes the observational temperature alone at the daily scale, via a spatio-temporal model that includes a wavelet-based trend, spatially varying seasonality, along with volatility and long-range dependence terms. Both statistical models have the ability to make predictions at a seasonal scale, both at point and grid box level. In the years 1962-2007 in South Central Sweden, we show that the climate model performs well in predicting the annual and seasonal average temperature at three reserved stations, but there are interesting differences among the model output and the statistical model-based predictions at the grid box level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses crisis preparedness in changing climate in contemporary Sweden. It notes the responsibility of the local government to handle the effects on climate change. It points out that consumers are vulnerable to the decrease or increase in response to climate change and local hazards. This is considered as a means of managing the uncertainty of climate change.

The hygroscopic growth of the atmospheric aerosol is a critical parameter for quantifying the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Until now, there has been a lack of long term measurements due to limitations in instrumental techniques. In this work, for the first time the seasonal variation of the hygroscopic properties of a continental background aerosol has been described, based on more than two years of continuous measurements. In addition to this, the diurnal variation of the hygroscopic growth has been investigated, as well as the seasonal variation in CCN concentration. These physical properties of the aerosol have been measured with a Hygroscopic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer (H-TDMA), a Differential Mobility Particle Sizer (DMPS), and a Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter (CCNC). The results show that smaller particles are generally less hygroscopic than larger ones, and that there is a clear difference in the hygroscopic properties between the Aitken and the accumulation mode. A seasonal cycle was found for all particle sizes. In general, the average hygroscopic growth is lower during wintertime, due to an increase in the relative abundance of less hygroscopic or barely hygroscopic particles. Monthly averages showed that the hygroscopic growth factors of the two dominating hygroscopic modes (one barely hygroscopic and one more hygroscopic) were relatively stable. The hygroscopic growth additionally showed a diurnal cycle, with higher growth factors during day time. CCN predictions based on H-TDMA data under-predicted the activated CCN number concentration with 7% for a 1% water supersaturation ratio. The underprediction increases with decreasing s, most likely due to a combination of measurement and modeling uncertainties. It was found that although the aerosol is often externally mixed, recalculating to an internal mixture with respect to hygroscopicity did not change the CCN concentration as a function of supersaturation significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This response article written from 'outside' the Swedish-Danish contexts of this special issue considers how we might highlight and make additional ecocentric meaning of some of the terms most frequently used in this collection. In the first instance my focus is on 'meaning' but this is expanded to include other terms such as valuing, values, ethics and democracy. The way we value meaning demands elaboration because 'meaning-making' is pedagogically central to the ecological experience of learning, crucial to fulfilling the not always clear aims of environmental and sustainability education and their regional variations (including education for sustainable development), important for their research, and, indeed, underpins the philosophical quest more generally. Thus in this article, I introduce an ecology of the meaning of meaning, meaning levels, valuing and values, as they might inform stronger notions of democracy in critical approaches to learning, education, sustainability and development. This existentially focused introduction to 'meaning' and its 'making' is set against the politics of 'climate change' where political leaders have recently made grand declarations about the globalized moral challenge induced by human-induced climate change. How might pedagogues and researchers imagine the place of meaning and role of value in learning and in an education for sustainable development when the crisis of meaning lies at the intersections of the intensely personal and moral and the globally abstracted political? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary aim of the study was to estimate economic weights of survival relative to volume production per unit area, and to analyse the observable impact of changing survival, for five different breeding populations of Scots pine in northern Sweden. The economic weights were calculated from the model previously presented by the authors. Data from genetic field trials associated with the breeding populations were used both to estimate economic weights and to analyse the validity of the model. The breeding populations used were chosen to encompass a range of climatic conditions. The effects on the estimates of economic weights of increasing harshness (expressed as decreasing temperature sum), actual levels of both survival and patchiness of survival, and different initial stand densities were also analysed. The results showed that an appropriately parameterized model can be used to estimate economic weights for Scots pine in northern Sweden. Both the economic weight of survival and the observable impact of changing survival varied markedly between the studied breeding populations. Decreasing temperature sum had no trend with increasing economic weight of survival whereas decreasing survival and increasing patchiness of survival increased the estimated economic weight of survival more than three-fold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Apeat profile from a small raised bog, situated in SW Sweden, was studied for insect, pollen and charcoal analyses in order to reconstruct the late-Holocene forest history of the area. The palaeoecological records cover the last 3700 cal. years. The results were compared with archaeological data, historical documents and palaeoclimate reconstructions from the region. From 1650 cal. yr BC to AD 1310 cal. yr, the study area was characterized by deciduous woodland with a diverse invertebrate fauna. The recorded insects indicate a relatively open or mosaic forest environment with abundance of dead wood. This forest environment was probably maintained by disturbances such as cattle grazing, fire, wood coppicing and small-scale cultivation. At around AD 1310, a major and rapid change in the forest ecosystem occurred, ie, species-rich deciduous woodland was replaced by a species-poor beech forest. The data indicate that a change in land use was the likely reason for the shift in forest type. Grazing and fire ceased, while tree cutting increased. The shift in land use correlates well with political-societal changes in the region during Mediaeval time. Climate changes seem to have influenced the wetland environment, but there is no obvious correlation between major or minor shifts in forest ecosystem and reconstructed climate changes. Today, nature conservationists regard the beech forests of Halland as remains of primeval forests hosting a unique flora and fauna. Our results give new insights and challenge that view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Climate change affects many ecosystems on earth. If not dying out or migrating, the species affected have to survive the altered conditions, including changes in community structure. It is, however, usually difficult to distinguish changes caused by a changing climate from other factors. 2. Forestry is considered to be the major disturbance factor in Swedish forests. Here, we use forest lake data sets from 1996 and 2006 which include species abundance data for dragonfly larvae, water plant structure, forest age and forestry measures during a period of 25 years: from 1980 to 2005. Hence, we were able to discriminate between forestry effects and changes in species composition driven by recent climate change. 3. We explored effects on regional species composition, species abundance and ecosystem functions, such as changes in niche use, utilising dragonflies (Odonata) as model organisms. 4. Our results show that dragonflies react rapidly to climate change, showing strong responses over such a short time span as 10 years. We observed changes in both species composition and abundance; former rare species have become more frequent and now occur in lakes of a wider quality range, while former widespread species have become more selective in their choice of waters. The new communities harbour about the same number of species as before, but seen from a regional perspective, diversity is reduced. 5. We predict that the altered species composition and abundance might raise new demands in conservation planning as well as altering the ecological functions of the aquatic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particle formation events were analysed from aerosol number size distribution data collected at a background station in southern Sweden between February 2001 and May 2004. Events occurred on about 36% of all days and were favoured by high global radiation values. The clearest events (class I, 20% of all days) were observed when the formation rate of activated hypothetical clusters around 1 nm diameter, J1 was higher than 10(180*CondS-0.60), where CondS is the condensation sink (in s−1). The median condensable vapour concentration, observed formation rate at 3 nm, and growth rate during class I events were 3.0 × 107 cm−3, 1.1 cm−3 s−1 and 2.1 nm h−1, respectively. On 7% of all days, it was possible to observe growth of the newly formed particles exceeding 30 nm geometric mean diameter during event days in the evening, which is important for the regional particle population, and thereby the climate. A trajectory analysis revealed that cleaner air masses were relatively more important for the contribution of Aitken mode particles than polluted ones. Class I events were registered on 36% of all days when trajectories had passed over the open sea, indicating that ship traffic can contribute to particle formation and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has proven to affect various aspects of the migration of birds. In response to milder winters making the habitat more profitable and increasing the survival of residents, the migratory fraction of partially migratory populations has been predicted to decline. We studied the blue tit Parus caeruleus, a common partial migrant in southern Sweden. The numbers migrating at Falsterbo, a migratory passage site in SW Sweden, has increased during the last decades, in parallel with increasing winter and annual temperatures. Migration data from Falsterbo were compared with yearly indices of the size of the breeding population as estimated by the Swedish National Bird Monitoring Programme. Over the study period 1975–2004, also the breeding population has increased in size. The proportion of blue tits migrating each year did not change over the study period, or possibly even increased slightly, which is in contrast to how climate change has been predicted to influence populations containing both migratory and resident individuals. The most important factors determining the intensity of blue tit migration in a given year was the size of an important winter food source, the beech mast crop (more migrants at lower crops) and the size of the breeding population (more migrants at higher densities). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A whole-tree chamber (WTC) system was installed at Flakaliden in northern Sweden to examine the long-term physiological responses of field-grown 40-year-old Norway spruce trees [ Picea abies (L.) Karst.] to climate change. The WTCs were designed as large cuvettes to allow the net tree-level CO2 and water fluxes to be measured on a continuous basis. A total of 12 WTCs were used to impose combinations of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2], and air temperature treatments. The air inside the ambient and elevated [CO2] WTCs was maintained at 365 and 700 µmol mol−1, respectively. The air temperature inside the ambient temperature WTCs tracked air temperature outside the WTCs. Elevated temperatures were altered on a monthly time-step and ranged between +2.8 and +5.6 °C above ambient temperature. The system allowed continuous, long-term measurement of whole-tree photosynthesis, night-time respiration and transpiration. The performance of the WTCs was assessed using winter and spring data sets. The ability of the WTC system to measure tree-level physiological responses is demonstrated. All WTCs displayed a high level of control over tracking of air temperatures. The set target of 365 µmol mol−1 in the ambient [CO2] chambers was too low to be maintained during winter because of tree dormancy and the high natural increase in [CO2] over winter at high latitudes such as the Flakaliden site. Accurate control over [CO2] in the ambient [CO2] chambers was restored during the spring and the system maintained the elevated [CO2] target of 700 µmol mol−1 for both measurement periods. Air water vapour deficit (VPD) was accurately tracked in ambient temperature WTCs. However, as water vapour pressure in all 12 WTCs was maintained at the level of non-chambered (reference) air, VPD of elevated temperature WTCs was increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at increasing our understanding of the regional wind climate in Sweden. Spatial and temporal patterns of the surface winds are presented for the years 1999-2000. Annual mean wind speeds range between 2 and 5 m/s with high values at exposed mountainous sites and on islands off the coast. Combining wind speed and direction into mean wind velocities shows that flow conditions are stronger and more coherent in space in southern Sweden than in central and northern Sweden. The spatial scale, defined as the distance between stations when the correlation for wind speed drops to ∼0.37, was determined by pairwise correlations between all possible station pairs. Scales range from 38 to 530 km for wind speed and from 40 to 830 km for wind direction depending on the region. They tend to be smaller in central and northern Sweden, where the more pronounced relief has a larger influence on the local wind conditions. The strength and the timing of the annual and diurnal wind speed cycle have been estimated for each station. Amplitudes of the annual cycle are greater at exposed sites and correlate generally well with annual mean wind speeds. Monthly mean wind speeds peak in winter in southern Sweden, but peak in other seasons in the remaining regions. In winter, weaker pressure gradients over northern Sweden and surface-near temperature inversions contribute to weaker surface winds. Diurnal cycles vary in strength between summer and winter. Compared to the last normal climate period (1961-1990), 1999-2000 is characterized by the increased occurrence of westerly and southerly geostrophic flow. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the Holocene tree line ( Pinus sylvestris ) and climate change in the Swedish Scandes. A composite of three previously independently published data sets of megafossil tree remains (trunks, stumps and roots) from sites above today's tree line is analysed. Calibration of ages, adjustment for glacio-isostatic land uplift and a larger sample provide new and more conclusive insights. The tree-line altitude peaked about 11?200 cal. yr BP, 425 m higher than the position about a century ago, when it was at its Holocene low. At the millennial-centennial scale, tree-line retraction has been a smooth process, following a linear trend, which largely conforms to the Milankovitch model of orbital forcing of summer temperature evolution. Shorter excursions from this trend cannot be ruled out, as these are beyond the resolution of the analytical approach. During the earliest Holocene, summers may have been about 2.5°C warmer than by the late-19th century. Projection of the 20th-century maximum tree-line rise by 150–190 m upon the entire Holocene tree-line chronology indicates that present-day tree lines may be higher than ever during the past 5000 or even 7000 years. Indirectly, this might reflect an anomalous modern climatic regime for which there is supporting evidence from retreating mountain glaciers and recent evolution of the alpine plant cover and its zonation patterns. With this background, the evolution of the tree-line ecotone in the case of continued warming is considered. Pine is likely to regain the dominant position held in the early Holocene. Its tree line may shift at least 400 m above its present position. Small outlier stands of mountain birch will establish in sheltered, moderately snow-rich habitats high above the new pine tree line, but an overall alpine character of the landscape will prevail above the tree line of pine. Exotic tree species, mainly belonging to the genus Pinus may profit from a new climatic regime and establish in the tree-line ecotone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature ( T ann), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a δ18O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjön, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T ann, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000–8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T ann values about 2.5°C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial-scale climate dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water-level changes for the last 125 years were reconstructed from two ombrotrophic mires in eastern central Sweden using testate amoebae assemblages. The reconstructed water tables show the same overall pattern with high water tables during the 1950s and 1960s and low water levels from the 1970s until present. The similarity in the two records supports the hypothesis that water-table changes in the ombro-trophic mires of this area are driven by climate change. Correlation of decadal means of reconstructed water levels and instrumental meteorological data was performed to examine the relationship between water table and climatic variability. The results show that the reconstructed water tables are correlated with changes in mean annual temperature (p < 0.05). This contrasts with similar data for other parts of Europe where correlations have been found with summer or annual precipitation and temperature. We suggest that low rainfall in this area of Sweden makes the peatlands more susceptible to changing temperature and that the lack of a response to precipitation is a function of low rainfall variability over the comparison period. The results show that mire surface wetness responses to climate change are spatially variable and greater attention should be given to understanding this variability if more accurate palaeoclimatic inferences are to be drawn from longer Holocene records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a well established fact that the urban landscape creates a climate which influences, for example, human comfort, air quality and energy consumption. However, in spite of this knowledge, it has been recognised that climate issues often have low impact on the urban planning process in practice. The reason for this lack of influence is an important question for which answers must be sought among climatologists, planners and the planning process. The main objective with the present study was to investigate if, how and when knowledge about the climate is used in the urban planning process. The research strategy was developed in an interdisciplinary research group involving climatologists and planners. Case studies involving different interview techniques and historical data were carried out by different actors involved in urban planning at the municipality level in three cities in Sweden. The study showed that urban planners were interested in climatic aspects but the use of climatic information was unsystematic and the results confirmed that climatology has a low impact on the planning process. The low impact is a result of several constraints which could be related to five explanatory variables i.e. conceptual and knowledge based, technical, policy, organisational and the market. The discussion part of the paper presents some key conclusions which address these constraints. It is important that urban climatologists meet the planners demand-driven needs by providing them with good arguments, suitable methods and tools. Urban climatologists are also encouraged to improve the awareness of the importance of urban climate not only among planners but also among decision-makers and the public. However, as planning is a political activity which not always is based on or even related to scientific knowledge, some of the identified constraints could only be counteracted through improved institutional capacity in the social context of planning." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the climate and budburst of the mountain birch was evaluated for two areas in subarctic (ca 69°N) Fennoscandia; at Abisko, Swedish Lapland, and at Kevo, Finnish Lapland. Thermal time (TT, degree-day sums) to budburst was calculated for experimental conditions in the laboratory and for in situ observations of budburst. Two types of models predicting leaf emergence in situ were used: 1) TT to budburst for different threshold temperatures based on daily mean (TTMean) or daily maximum (TTMax) temperatures and 2) ecophysiological budburst models. The obtained models were used to estimate effects of a changed climate. Laboratory experiments of TT to budburst indicated no differences in the thermal requirements at the two areas. Temperature requirements of budburst declined successively during the progression of spring, from ca 250 degree-days (>+2°C) in January to ca 100 in May. No significant trend in the date of budburst was found over the last 70 (Abisko) or 20 (Kevo) yr. There were some differences in the type of model that best explained the date of budburst in situ at the two areas. For Kevo the best prediction (minimum root mean square error, RMSE) of budburst was obtained by a simple thermal time model (TTMean > 5.5°C) from 1 January (RMSE=2.1). For budburst at Abisko, models based on daily maximum temperature fitted better than those based on daily means. For Abisko, models based on thermal time accumulation only showed systematic errors in the predicted budburst that were correlated with budburst previous year (BBPY). Including this apparent memory effect in the model decreased the error by 2.4 d. The best prediction for Abisko was thus obtained using TTMAX > 6.5 (RMSE=3.1) from 1 January. Using these models to predict the effect of a changed air temperature climate indicate 3–8 d earlier budburst for a one-degree increase in temperature, the effect being smaller for Kevo than for Abisko. For both areas a change in May temperature has a larger effect on the date of budburst than changes in any other month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]