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Using past episodes of climate change as a source of evidence to inform our projections about contemporary climate change requires establishing the extent to which episodes in the deep past are analogous to the current crisis. However, many scientists claim that contemporary rates of climate change (e.g., rates of carbon emissions or temperature change) are unprecedented, including compared to episodes in the deep past. If so, this would limit the utility of paleoclimate analogues. In this paper, I show how a data adjustment procedure called "temporal scaling," which must be applied to both contemporary and past rate data, complicates the claim that contemporary rates are truly unprecedented. On top of giving actionable recommendations to scientists, this paper advances the philosophical literature concerning the use of models that are known to be somewhat disanalogous to their target systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, δ17O and its excess (Δ′17O) have become increasingly significant "triple-oxygen-isotope" indicators of distinctive hydrological processes in hydrology and climatology. This situation mirrors the research regarding δ18O and δ2H in the 1960s towards a solid theoretical base and a surge in application examples and field studies worldwide. Currently, systematic global measurements for δ17O in precipitation are still lacking. As a result, attempts have been made to define a Global δ17O/δ18O Meteoric Water Line (GMWL), often by using regional or local datasets of varying systematicity. Different definitions of the global reference slope (λref) for determining Δ′17O values have been proposed, by ongoing debate around a proposed consensus value of 0.528. This study used worldwide samples archived in the IAEA Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) to (a) derive a δ17O/δ18O GMWL based on four-year monthly records from 66 GNIP stations, (b) formulate local δ17O/δ18O meteoric water lines (LMWL) for these stations' areas, and (c) evaluate regional and seasonal variations of Δ′17O in precipitation. The GMWL for δ17O/δ18O was determined to be δ′17O = 0.5280 ± 0.0002 δ′18O + 0.0153 ± 0.0013, in keeping with the consensus value. Furthermore, our results suggested that using a line-conditioned 17O-excess is a viable alternative over the global λref in the context of regional hydrology and paleoclimatology interpretations; however, without challenging the global λref as such. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assesses the development and current state of climate history research conducted in the five Nordic countries and Estonia. The possible societal impacts of past climatic changes already interested a handful of Nordic historians in the early twentieth century, but the lack of data on past climate fluctuations constrained scholarship in this field until recently. The data availability has increased fundamentally over the past decades due to the advances of palaeoclimatology. However, these advances have created new challenges, related to the ability to utilize data from the natural sciences in historical research as well as acquiring a basic knowledge on climatology. In many European countries, climate history has established itself as a strong academic subfield and consequently has created approaches as to how to overcome some main pitfalls, like climate determinism, related to the early works in the field. These epistemological advances are just beginning to gain a foothold in Nordic historical research. Thus, the article concludes with ten recommendations to improve future research in Nordic climate history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The teleconnection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and eastern China summer precipitation (ECSP) for the modern period has been emphasized in the past few decades. We test its stability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) based on the composite results of the median of six models under the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase3 (PMIP3) framework. During the MCA, ECSP generally increases in positive AMO phases relative to negative phases, similar to the modern teleconnection, while during the LIA, the precipitation tends to reduce over eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River basin. Decomposing the precipitation change on the basis of a diagnostic moisture budget manifests that the different AMO-related precipitation changes stem from distinct effects of circulation-induced moisture convergence during the two periods. Compared with negative AMO phases, positive AMO phases during the MCA show an anomalous lower-level cyclone and upper-level anticyclone over eastern China that facilitate the upward motion anomaly and precipitation excess. During the LIA, a barotropic anticyclone centers in Northeast China and weakens the high-level westerlies over eastern China; this favors descending and upper-level divergence anomalies and leads to precipitation decreases. The distinct convergence changes are determined by differing propagation paths of the AMO-induced teleconnection wave train during the two periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space-time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantitative reconstructions of past climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau derived from glacial record based on glacier-climate models have been reported in existing researches. However, compared with low altitude areas and the vast majority parts of the Tibetan Plateau, modeled paleoclimate conditions from glacial record are still lack. This hampers the advancing understanding of regional climate–glacier interactions. The glacial history of Burhan Budai Shan provides an opportunity to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions since the penultimate glacial cycle. We applied a coupled mass balance and ice flow model to estimate paleoclimate during the early Holocene, MIS3 and penultimate glacial cycle. On the southern model domain, the model results suggested that the temperature drops ranged from -0.5～0.1 °C and 2.4～3.9 °C with precipitation being 140～200% and 30～100% of present during the MIS3 and penultimate glacial cycle, respectively. On the northern model domain, the early Holocene temperature was lower than present levels by 0.5～1.5 °C which presented separate evidence for the early Holocene precipitation being 80～150% of modern values. The model results in the model domain are generally consistent with other climate records on the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern North American Arctic has a complex 5000-year prehistory, during which many human population movements occurred over great distances. Archaeologists have interpreted these movements as resulting from many factors, however the effects of climate change are often hypothesized as primary drivers that can "push" human groups to leave some regions, or "pull" them to move to others. Here, we examine climate change at the regional scale over the Common Era using Arctic paleoclimate data derived from a wide suite of biological proxies and geochemical tracers. We consider available statistical composites of high resolution (sub-decadal) paleo-temperature reconstructions for the Arctic region, as well as local-scale reconstructions at century or sub-century scale resolution in three focal regions of archaeological significance relevant to population movements: Victoria Island, Foxe Basin/Baffin Island, and the High Arctic (Ellesmere Island/Northwestern Greenland). We emphasize the two most widespread, though variable, climate change events characteristic of this period: the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and Little Ice Age in the second millennium AD; we also evaluate the evidence for the Roman Warm Period and Dark Ages Cold Period in the first millennium AD, as context for later events. We integrate information on the timing and magnitude of these events across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and assess the degree to which they coincide with current understanding of major population movements, with particular emphasis on three migration episodes. First, the expansion of Late Dorset Paleo-Inuit to the Central and High Arctic beginning in the late first millennium AD is plausibly linked to warming temperatures of the MCA. Second, the migration of Thule Inuit from Alaska to the Eastern Arctic beginning ca AD 1250 is not linked to warmer temperatures as previously hypothesized, and is therefore more likely related to social factors in Alaska. Third, the abandonment of northern regions and new settlement of southern regions by Inuit in the mid-second millennium AD is likely linked to a combination of cooling climate and increasing availability of European trade goods. Together, these three case studies indicate that linkages between climate change and migration are complex, variable, and mediated through social and economic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light loamy ordinary chernozems buried under two kurgans of a large Early Medieval necropolis Srostki-1 constructed in 890 ± 105...975 ± 85 AD (calibration by 1δ) were compared with the chernozem of the background territory in Biysk district of Altai. The analysis of pedological and 20 geochemical indices characterizing weathering, biological activity, and salt leaching demonstrated that the paleosols of the Medieval period in the phase before the construction of the kurgans had been formed in a somewhat drier climate compared to the modern conditions, and then the humidization of the paleoclimate began. According to palynological data, the considered period was characterized by a decrease in the area of pine stands, which could be due to colder winters. The areas of birch and riverine willow forests also decreased in comparison with the modern period because of the active cutting by humans of the Srostki ethnos. In the Medieval period, mesophytic rich forb communities occupied larger areas and predominated over dry-steppe communities. The growth of sedges was active on expanding marshes that appeared after drying of shallow water bodies upon the decrease in the water-protective role of forest vegetation. At the same time, a slight increase in the amount of pollen of xerophytic herbs, including representatives of Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae families and Artemisia genus took place. This could be related to the increased anthropogenic load, including soil disturbance upon the construction of 61 kurgans of the Srostki culture. Dendrochronological method was applied to reconstruct average summer temperatures over the past two thousand years. It was found that the heat supply of summer seasons in the Srostki period (8th–12th centuries AD) generally corresponded to that at present. However, the years of 850–870 and 930–950 AD were marked by summer cooling, and the years of 876–882 and 982 AD were marked by summer warming with average summer temperatures 1.5°C higher than the reference values of 1961–1990. The climatic variability of the Medieval period in different regions of the south of Western Siberia attests to the metachronous dynamics of the climate specified by the local conditions against the background of general climatic trends typical of Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become one of the main issues in the countries government agendas. The current effects demand effective climate actions which were set out in the Paris Agreement with the global goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the main changes to face and mitigate climate change depend on each countrys decisions and not only on global agreements as the impacts and its magnitudes vary locally. One of the key components for an effective adaption and mitigation is the role that the behavior of the population may have over national politics and subsequent decisions. For this reason, the level of awareness and knowledge about climate change is vital. The objective of the current study was to compare the perception of Ecuadorian academics regarding global and national climate change with the scientific evidence and historical facts, and how it may affect their vulnerability to the climate change effects. The results show that Ecuadorian academics are well aware of globally known facts of climate change such as existence, gravity and responsibility of humans. However, there is limited awareness about the origin, since 67.2% believes that this is the first climate change in human history. The main effects of climate change in Ecuador exhibit heterogeneous perceptions, with the more frequent droughts (34.36%) and rarer but more intense rains (21.41%) as their greater concerns. Regarding the regions more affected in Ecuador, highlands and Inter-Andean valleys sum up 45.6% while Galapagos only reaches 1.6% despite being an ecological flagship with high climate vulnerability. It seems that respondents lack knowledge about the situation in other regions, and believe that their own environment is more impacted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise of research. Plant response to climate through time is commonly investigated with leaf physiognomy, but anatomical response has not been well studied. Here, we use Metasequoia (Cupressaceae) to investigate leaf anatomical response to climate over geologic time. We establish the link between leaf anatomy and climate for extant Metasequoia and apply the results to the fossil Metasequoia milleri to examine climatic niche shift through time. Methodology. Leaves of extant Metasequoia glyptostroboides collected across climate gradients in North America, Asia, and Europe and leaves of extinct M. milleri from the Eocene Princeton Chert locality were studied. Leaf anatomical traits—cross-sectional area, resin canal area, vascular bundle area, and leaf thickness and width—of extant and extinct Metasequoia were measured, analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA), and tested for relationships with 19 bioclimatic variables in a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). Fossil climate variables estimated from CCA results were compared with independent paleoclimate proxy estimates. Pivotal results. All measured anatomical traits statistically differ between extinct and extant Metasequoia , and the two species do not overlap in leaf anatomical morphospace. Measured traits of extant Metasequoia were found to correlate with several climate variables grouped into six climate groupings. Leaf width and cross-sectional area correlated with high cold-season precipitation, vascular bundle area with high warm-season precipitation, leaf thickness with mild cold-season temperatures and high mean annual temperatures, and resin canal area with daily temperature fluctuations and mild cold-season temperatures. Estimated paleoclimates based on the leaf anatomy–climate model were similar to independent proxy estimates. Conclusions. A relationship between leaf traits and climate was found that supports different leaf anatomical morphospaces and climatic niches for both species of Metasequoia that were tested, despite previous hypotheses of static morphology within Metasequoia. Testing interactions between climate and anatomy could improve paleoenvironmental inferences from fossil conifers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: The Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE) method utilizes a robust set of modeling tools for estimating climate and paleoclimate from vegetation using large repositories of biodiversity data and open access R software. Methods: Here, we implement a new R package for the estimation of climate from extant and fossil vegetation. The 'cRacle' package implements functions for data access, aggregation, and modeling to estimate climate from plant community compositions. 'cRacle' is modular and includes many best‐practice features. Results: Performance tests using modern vegetation survey data from North and South America shows that CRACLE outperforms alternative methods. CRACLE estimates of mean annual temperature are usually within 1°C of the actual values when optimal model parameters are used. Generalized boosted regression (GBR) model correction improves CRACLE estimates by reducing bias. Discussion: CRACLE provides accurate estimates of climate based on the composition of modern plant communities. Non‐parametric CRACLE modeling coupled with GBR model correction produces the most accurate results to date. The 'cRacle' R package streamlines the estimation of climate from plant community data, which will make this modeling more accessible to a wider range of users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the development of the "Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator" PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last 5×106 years. The 5×106 -year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the evolution of humans. However, the choice of time frame was primarily pragmatic; tectonic changes can be neglected to first order, so that it is reasonable to consider climate forcing restricted to the Earth's orbital configuration, ice-sheet state, and the concentration of atmosphere CO2. The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation of the singular value decomposition of ensembles of the intermediate-complexity atmosphere–ocean GCM (general circulation model) PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables of surface air temperature (warmest and coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and driest seasons) are emulated at 1000-year intervals, driven by time series of scalar boundary-condition forcing (CO2 , orbit, and ice volume) and assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium. Paleoclimate anomalies at climate model resolution are interpolated onto the observed modern climatology to produce a high-resolution spatio-temporal paleoclimate reconstruction of the Pliocene–Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate models (RCMs) are often assumed to be more skillful compared to lower‐resolution general circulation models (GCM). However, RCMs are driven by input from coarser resolution GCMs, which may introduce biases. This study employs versions of the HadAMB3 GCM at three resolutions (>50 km) to investigate the added value of higher resolution using identically configured simulations of the preindustrial (PI), mid‐Holocene, and Last Glacial Maximum. The RCM shows improved PI climatology compared to the coarse‐resolution GCM and enhanced paleoanomalies in the jet stream and storm tracks. However, there is no apparent improvement when compared to proxy reconstructions. In the high‐resolution GCM, accuracy in PI climate and atmospheric anomalies are enhanced despite its intermediate resolution. This indicates that synoptic and mesoscale features in a RCM are influenced by its low‐resolution input, which impacts the simulated climatology. This challenges the paradigm that RCMs improve the representation of climate conditions and change. Plain Language Summary: Regional climate models (RCM) are often thought to simulate climate more accurately. However, RCMs use data generated by a lower‐resolution global model that is inputted at the boundaries, which may introduce biases. Here, we use three versions of the same model, a low‐resolution general circulation model (GCM), a high‐resolution GCM (HR‐GCM), and an RCM, to investigate the added value of higher resolution up to 50 km. We run simulations at three time periods: the preindustrial (PI: ~CE 1750), mid‐Holocene (6,000 years ago), and the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago). The RCM more accurately simulates PI climate and has enhanced anomalies in the past for some atmospheric processes compared to the low‐resolution GCM. However, compared to reconstructions from pollen observations, there is no evident improvement in the RCM compared to the GCM. In the HR‐GCM however, the PI climatology and anomalies in past processes are further enhanced, despite it being lower resolution than the RCM. This indicates that the climatology produced by a RCM is influenced by the input from the low‐resolution GCM. RCMs may therefore not be as accurate at simulating climate and climate change compared with an intermediate resolution global GCM. Key Points: A regional climate model (RCM) is compared against a low‐ and high‐resolution global model (GCM and HR‐GCM) using paleoclimate simulationsThe RCM climatology is improved relative to the GCM due to resolution but is influenced at its lateral boundaries by the results of the GCMThe HR‐GCM simulates a different climatology to the other models due to differences in model dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals’ extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (ΔRange) and a proxy for abundance (ΔSuitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal’s extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines changes in aridity levels during the mid-Holocene (approximately 6000 cal. yr ago) using multi-model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III. Overall, there is little difference in the total area of drylands from the preindustrial period; global drylands are 8% wetter than during the preindustrial period as measured by an aridity index; and 16% of preindustrial drylands convert to a wetter climate subtype, double the sum of zones that are replaced by a drier category. Considerable variations are present among regions with major contractions of each dryland subtype from northern Africa to South Asia and the main expansions of arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid climates in southern hemisphere continents. The difference in precipitation is the leading factor of the aforementioned changes. The second factor is the altered potential evapotranspiration as mainly induced by relative humidity, which contributes to additional aridity changes in a same direction as precipitation does. The collective effects of precipitation and relative humidity account for more than 80% of the dryland variations. In comparison, the simulated aridity change is in reasonable agreement with reconstructions, while there are model–data discrepancies for Australia and uncertainties across proxies for southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External auditory exostoses (EAE) have been noted among the Neandertals and a few other Pleistocene humans, but until recently they have been discussed primary as minor pathological lesions with possible auditory consequences. An assessment of available western Eurasian late Middle and Late Pleistocene human temporal bones with sufficiently preserved auditory canals (n = 77) provides modest levels of EAE among late Middle Pleistocene archaic humans (≈20%) and early modern humans (Middle Paleolithic: ≈25%; Early/Mid Upper Paleolithic: 20.8%; Late Upper Paleolithic: 9.5%). The Neandertals, however, exhibit an exceptionally high level of EAE (56.5%; 47.8% if two anomalous cases are considered normal). The levels of EAE for the early modern humans are well within recent human ranges of variation, frequencies which are low for equatorial inland and high latitude samples but occasionally higher elsewhere. The Early/Mid Upper Paleolithic frequency is nonetheless high for a high latitude sample under interpleniglacial conditions. Given the strong etiological and environmental associations of EAE development with exposure to cold water and/or damp wind chill, the high frequency of EAE among the Neandertals implies frequent aquatic resource exploitation, more frequent than the archeological and stable isotopic evidence for Middle Paleolithic/Neandertal littoral and freshwater resource foraging implies. As such, the Neandertal data parallel a similar pattern evident in eastern Eurasian archaic humans. Yet, factors in addition to cold water/wind exposure may well have contributed to their high EAE frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A pronounced shift in Asian monsoon is identified during the last interglacial. • There were two monsoon phases in the latter last interglacial. • Rapid demise of the last interglacial Asian monsoon was due to the gradual decrease of summer insolation. The last interglacial contains information about how climate behaves during a warm period comparable to the current interval. However, there is no consensus on the key signatures and force of the last interglacial climate changes at present. Here we present a high-resolution stalagmite oxygen isotope record from central China, which spans from 123.3 to 116.8 ka. The stalagmite δ18O time-series bears a resemblance to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation before the demise of the last interglacial, like the condition during the Holocene. Superimposed on the long-term δ18O record is a pronounced shift to more positive values at around 121.6 ka, indicating a switch of the Asian monsoon mean state into a weaker condition. This monsoon shift correlates with a decrease in the mean state of the South American Summer Monsoon, and a well-known abrupt mid-Eemian cooling event at high latitudes. These correlations indicate broad-scale features of the climate shift over the warm last interglacial. Another positive δ18O shift of up to 3.5‰ occurred at around 120 ka, representing the demise of the last interglacial Asian monsoon. By comparing the stalagmite δ18O records against changes in ice volume and summer insolation during the last interglacial and recent Holocene, respectively, we conclude that the decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation dominated the rapid demise of the last interglacial in the Asian monsoon region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four chronologies of the bivalve species Glycymeris pilosa have been constructed along a 300 km gradient of the eastern coastal Adriatic Sea, all of which span the common period of 1982–2015. The chronologies are compared to local and remote environmental drivers suspected to influence the biology of the system, including air and seawater temperature, precipitation and freshwater discharge. The Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), a key oceanographic feature quantified by satellite-derived absolute dynamic topography, is also compared to the chronologies. The chronologies at the two southern sites are more strongly influenced by local river discharge, while the two northern chronologies are more strongly influenced by BiOS. These results highlight the broadscale importance of BiOS to the Adriatic system as well as the heterogeneity of nearshore environmental and drivers of growth. These G. pilosa chronologies provide unique multidecadal, continuous, biological time series to better understand the ecology and fine-scale variability of the Adriatic with potential for other shallow, semi-enclosed seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of Cenozoic climate patterns in Asia has been linked to uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), retreat of the Paratethys Sea, and global cooling. However, less attention has been placed on the latitudinal change of the TP. Here we report new climate modeling to explore how modern climate changes as a function of topographic growth and spatial migration of the TP. Our results show that the northward displacement of the uplifted proto‐TP within the subtropics can significantly affect the wind and precipitation pattern over East‐Central Asia. By compiling proxy‐based climatic records, paleolatitudinal and paleoelevational evolution models of the proto‐TP, and in comparison with previous modeling under a global paleogeography, we suggest that the northward migration of the proto‐TP in the Paleogene could have intensified the aridity in Central Asia, but its influence on East Asian precipitation and monsoonal circulation could be dependent on the paleogeography and other boundary conditions. Plain Language Summary: The evolution of the Asian monsoons and aridification of Asia's interior are thought to be driven by Tibetan‐Himalayan uplift. Recent geological observations suggest that the uplifted proto‐Tibetan Plateau (proto‐TP) migrated northward in the subtropics since the early Eocene and reached its present position by the latest Oligocene. We therefore simulated the effects of this process on East‐Central Asian climate. Our climate modeling shows the northward migration of the high proto‐TP from 21–29°N to 29–37°N can significantly change the present‐day wind and precipitation patterns over East‐Central Asia. Especially, Central Asia become drier because of the displacement of the anomalous dry belt caused by large‐scale atmospheric subsidence. We further suggest that forcing by the paleolatitudinal migration of the high proto‐TP within the subtropics from the Eocene to the earliest Miocene could have drove the Central Asian paleoclimate to dryer conditions, but migration might not be the sole parameter that governed the East Asian monsoon during the Paleogene. Key Points: The high proto‐Tibetan Plateau migrating northward can notably influence the modern East‐Central Asian climate systemCentral Asian aridification increased with the northward migration of the proto‐Tibetan Plateau in the PaleogeneThe impact of Paleogene proto‐Tibetan Plateau migration on East Asian climate could be dependent on boundary conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how increases in water temperature may affect winter dormancy period duration and overwinter survival are important for the effective conservation and management of estuarine species in the face of a warming climate. In this study, we determined the length of the overwintering period and the probability of overwinter survival of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), an ecologically and economically important estuarine crustacean. Overwintering period length and probability of overwinter survival were determined using projected water temperatures up to the year 2100, derived from a harmonic model that utilized air temperatures from multi-model ensemble of regional-scale climate projections. Our estimates of warming water temperatures by 2100 in Chesapeake Bay indicate that winters will be up to 50% shorter and overwinter survival will increase by at least 20% compared to current conditions. The warmer conditions will lead to faster and prolonged seasonal growth, which, when combined with lower winter mortality, will lead to increased population productivity. The level of expression of this increased productivity will depend on the response of other elements of the Chesapeake Bay food web, as well as possible changes to fishery management policies over the same time period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of Central and South America, the peopling of the New World was a complex process lasting thousands of years and involving multiple waves of Pleistocene and early Holocene period immigrants entering into the neotropics. These Paleoindian colonists initially brought with them technologies developed for adaptation to environments and resources found in North America. As the ice age ended across the New World people adapted more generalized stone tools to exploit changing environments and resources. In the neotropics these changes would have been pronounced as patchy forests and grasslands gave way to broadleaf tropical forests. We document a late Pleistocene/early Holocene stone tool tradition from Belize, located in southern Mesoamerica. This represents the first endogenous Paleoindian stone tool technocomplex recovered from well dated stratigraphic contexts for Mesoamerica. Previously designated Lowe, these artifacts share multiple features with contemporary North and South American Paleoindian tool types. Once hafted, these bifaces appear to have served multiple functions for cutting, hooking, thrusting, or throwing. The tools were developed at a time of technological regionalization reflecting the diverse demands of a period of pronounced environmental change and population movement. Combined stratigraphic, technological, and population paleogenetic data suggests that there were strong ties between lowland neotropic regions at the onset of the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millennial-scale Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) variability at northern high latitudes has influenced climatic and environmental conditions in the Mediterranean during the last glacial period. There is evidence that the hemispheric transmission of the DO variability occurred at the end of DO event 25; however, the exact timing and the trigger that activated the environmental response in the Mediterranean remains incompletely understood. Here, we provide evidence that the clear millennial-scale teleconnection between Greenland and the Mediterranean started at ∼111.4 ka BP and was initiated by a sub-millennial scale cooling in Greenland (GI-25b). High-resolution sediment proxies and the pollen record of Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON), Italy, reflect climatic instability during the last millennium of the last interglacial, which was characterised by a first and short cooling episode (MON 1) at 111.44 ± 0.69 ka BP, coinciding with the Greenland cold sub-event GI-25b in duration and timing (within dating uncertainties). MON and Greenland (NorthGRIP ice core) also agree in recording a subsequent warm rebound phase that abruptly culminated in the stadial MON 2/GS-25, marking the transition into the last glacial period. Our results show that the GI-25b triggered an early environmental response at MON to centennial-scale climate change in Greenland as a prelude to the millennial-scale teleconnection that was maintained during the glacial period. • Annual-resolution study of the transition from the Last Interglacial period to the last Glacial period. • Evaluation of the differences in proxy response to sub-millennial-scale climate variability. • Chronological discussion based on comparison of independent chronologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that climatology and paleoclimatology addresses climate change studies. Topics discussed include the variations of the current climate, from series recent data, atmospheric and marine data, focus on the efforts of knowing the climatic conditions that had different regions hundreds, and volcanic islands main and several islets and minor islands located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

In many woody dicot plant species, colder temperatures correlate with a greater degree of leaf dissection and with larger and more abundant leaf teeth (the serrated edges along margins). The measurement of site-mean characteristics of leaf size and shape (physiognomy), including leaf dissection and tooth morphology, has been an important paleoclimate tool for over a century. These physiognomic-based climate proxies require that all woody dicot plants at a site, regardless of species, change their leaf shape rapidly and predictably in response to temperature. Here we experimentally test these assumptions by growing five woody species in growth cabinets under two temperatures (17 and 25°C). In keeping with global site-based patterns, plants tend to develop more dissected leaves with more abundant and larger leaf teeth in the cool treatment. Overall, this upholds the assumption that leaf shape responds in a particular direction to temperature change. The assumption that leaf shape variables respond to temperature in the same way regardless of species did not hold because the responses varied by species. Leaf physiognomic models for inferring paleoclimate should take into account these species-specific responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil pH is a key factor that controls soil nutrient availability, soil microbial activities, and crop growth and development. However, studies on the soil pH variations of cultivated lands in different horizons at the regional scale remain limited. In this work, 348 soil samples were collected from three soil horizons (A, B, and C) at 120 sites over the hilly region of Chongqing, southwestern China. Six topographic indicators, four climate parameters, and parent material were considered. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were applied to investigate the relationships between soil pH and the variables in the A, B, and C horizons. Model performances were evaluated by root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Results showed that soil pH increased obviously from the A to C horizons. Soil pH was predicted well by the forcing factors with the CART models in all horizons. RMSE, RRMSE, and R2 varied between 0.37 and 0.435, between 5.93 and 7.23%, and between 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. The relative importance of the studied variables to soil pH differed with the horizons. Annual temperature range (ATR), terrain wetness index (TWI), and Melton ruggedness number were critical factors that controlled soil pH variability in the A horizon. Parent material, precipitation of warmest quarter (PWQ), ATR, and TWI were important variables in the B horizon. Parent material, PWQ, ATR, and precipitation were key factors in the C horizon. The results are expected to provide valuable information for designing appropriate measurements for agricultural practices and preventing soil acidification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups’ survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model’s simulated “genomes” (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adaptability of our species, as revealed by the geographic routes and palaeoenvironmental contexts of human dispersal beyond Africa, is a prominent topic in archaeology and palaeoanthropology. Northern and Central Asia have largely been neglected as it has been assumed that the deserts and mountain ranges of these regions acted as ‘barriers’, forcing human populations to arc north into temperate and arctic Siberia. Here, we test this proposition by constructing Least Cost Path models of human dispersal under glacial and interstadial conditions between prominent archaeological sites in Central and East Asia. Incorporating information from palaeoclimatic, palaeolake, and archaeological data, we demonstrate that regions such as the Gobi Desert and the Altai Mountain chains could have periodically acted as corridors and routes for human dispersals and framing biological interactions between hominin populations. Review of the archaeological datasets in these regions indicates the necessity of wide-scale archaeological survey and excavations in many poorly documented parts of Eurasia. We argue that such work is likely to highlight the ‘northern routes’ of human dispersal as variable, yet crucial, foci for understanding the extreme adaptive plasticity characteristic of the emergence of Homo sapiens as a global species, as well as the cultural and biological hybridization of the diverse hominin species present in Asia during the Late Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of disappearance of the Neanderthals, the only human population living in Europe before the arrival of Homo sapiens, have been debated for decades by the scientific community. Different hypotheses have been advanced to explain this demise, such as cognitive, adaptive and cultural inferiority of Neanderthals. Here, we investigate the disappearance of Neanderthals by examining the extent of demographic changes needed over a period of 10,000 years (yrs) to lead to their extinction. In regard to such fossil populations, we inferred demographic parameters from present day and past hunter-gatherer populations, and from bio-anthropological rules. We used demographic modeling and simulations to identify the set of plausible demographic parameters of the Neanderthal population compatible with the observed dynamics, and to explore the circumstances under which they might have led to the disappearance of Neanderthals. A slight (<4%) but continuous decrease in the fertility rate of younger Neanderthal women could have had a significant impact on these dynamics, and could have precipitated their demise. Our results open the way to non-catastrophic events as plausible explanations for Neanderthal extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article talks about the global climate that has undergone changes during Cenozoic era, transforming from ice free climate to a cold climate with ice sheets and paleoclimate change of the Red Clay on the Chinese Loess Plateau . It talks about the clay minerals with various sediments, fluctuations in paleoclimate and paleoenvironment, the continental and ocean depositions and being used for reconstructing the process of eolian sediment.

The loss of Neanderthal groups across Western and Central Europe during Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 3 has held the attention of archaeologists for decades. The role that climatic change, genetic interbreeding, and interspecies competition played in the extinction of Neanderthal groups is still debated. Hohle Fels is one of several important Middle and Upper Paleolithic sites from the Ach Valley in southwestern Germany which documents the presence of Neanderthals and modern humans in the region. Chronological and stratigraphic records indicate that these two groups occupied the site with little to no overlap or interaction. This provides the opportunity to examine the behavioural variability of Swabian Neanderthal populations without the complication of cross-cultural influence. In this study we contribute a terrestrial paleoenvironmental record derived from the small mammal material from Hohle Fels Cave to the ever-growing archaeological record of this period. By reconstructing the climate and landscape of the Ach Valley during this time we can identify the effect that the OIS 3 environment had on the presence of Neanderthals in the region. Based on indicator taxa and the habitat weighing method, the small mammal record, which includes rodents, insectivores, and bats, from Hohle Fels shows that the earliest Neanderthal occupation took place on a landscape characterized by substantial woodland and forest, rivers and ponds, as well as moist meadows and grasslands. A gradual increase in cold tundra and arctic environments is clear towards the end of the Middle Paleolithic, extending to the end of the early Aurignacian which may correlate with the onset of the Heinrich 4 event (~42,000 kya). Our taphonomic analysis indicates the material was accumulated primarily by opportunistic predators such as the great grey owl, snowy owl, and European eagle owl, and therefore reflects the diversity of landscapes present around the site in the past. Importantly, at the time Neanderthals abandoned the Ach Valley we find no indication for dramatic climatic deterioration. Rather, we find evidence of a gradual cooling of the Swabian landscape which may have pushed Neanderthal groups out of the Ach Valley prior to the arrival of modern human Aurignacian groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate model simulations of the summer South Asian monsoon predict increased rainfall in response to anthropogenic warming. However, instrumental data show a decline in Indian rainfall in recent decades, underscoring the critical need for additional, independent records of past monsoon variability. Here, we present new reconstructions of annual summer South Asian Monsoon circulation over the past 250 years, based on the geochemical barium‐calcium signature of dust present in Red Sea corals. These records reveal how monsoon circulation has evolved with warming climate and indicate a significant multi‐century long monsoon intensification, with decreased multidecadal variance. Stronger monsoon circulation would have increased the moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal over the Indian subcontinent. If these trends continue, the monsoon circulation and associated moisture transport and precipitation will remain strong and stable for several decades. Plain Language Summary: Despite the importance of the summer South Asian monsoon in controlling the timing and amount of precipitation delivered to more than a billion people across South Asia, there remains considerable uncertainty in how the monsoon system has changed as climate has warmed over the past couple centuries. Understanding the past behavior of the monsoon system aids in the projection of future monsoon variability and trends. In this paper, we present new, independent reconstructions of South Asian monsoon circulation. These reconstructions are derived from the geochemistry of corals collected from the Red Sea. Winds driven by the South Asian monsoon circulation blow dust from the Tokar Gap region of Sudan, which is deposited on the Red Sea. The dust releases barium to seawater, which is then incorporated into coral skeletons. These records show a multi‐century long trend of increasing monsoon intensity and weakening multidecadal‐scale variability. This suggests that as the climate warmed, the monsoon circulation became stronger and more stable on multidecadal timescales. Stronger monsoon circulation would have increased the moisture transport over the Indian subcontinent, increasing precipitation. If these trends continue, we would expect the monsoon circulation and associated precipitation to remain strong and stable for several decades. Key Points: Summer South Asian monsoon circulation is reconstructed from coral geochemistryReconstructions reveal century‐scale trends of increasing monsoon strength and decreasing decadal‐scale variabilityReconstructed trends agree with climate models forced by observed long‐term warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banni, located in the arid western India, is one of the largest tropical grasslands of the Asian continent. The net primary production in this grassland ecosystem is currently mediated by precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). However, timing of the grassland expansion and its link to the intensity of monsoonal precipitation remains enigmatic due to the paucity of datasets. The major objective of this study is to understand the changes in monsoonal precipitation and vegetation for the last 4600 cal yr BP using hydrogen and carbon isotopic composition of n-alkanes (δDn -alkane and δ13Cn -alkane) measured from two core sediments (Chachi and Luna) in Banni region. The δ13CC29 and δ13CC31 values for Chachi core sediments vary from −30.9 ‰ to −27.2 ‰ and −34.4 ‰ to −25 ‰ respectively. The δ13Cn -alkane values from the core sediments are converted into %C4 plants based on a binary mixing model using the end-member δ13Cn -alkane values derived from the dominant modern vegetation in the Banni region. The prominent feature of the paleovegetation curve is the marked increase in the δ13Cn -alkane values after 2500 cal yr BP, which suggests proliferation of C4 grasses in this region. Similar changes after 2500 cal yr BP have also been observed in the δDn -alkane values. The δDC29 values are used to calculate δD value of paleoprecipitation that varied from 10 ‰ to −60.2 ‰. A significant increase in the δD values of paleoprecipitation (ca. 25 ‰) indicates a weakened ISM precipitation after ca. 2500 cal yr BP. The regional aridification and frequent fire events may have helped the expansion of C4 plant dominated grassland ecosystem in Banni region. Correlation between paleoclimatic records suggests that the southward migration of intertropical convergence zone and more frequent warm phases of El-Nino Southern Oscillation have triggered the weakening of monsoonal precipitation in the tropical region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing suitable tree ring width (TRW) proxy system models (PSMs) is an emerging research focus in paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA). Currently, however, it is unknown as to which TRW PSMs are optimal for practical PDA applications. This study proposes an artificial neural networks (ANN)‐based TRW PSM and compares its performance with those of existing TRW PSMs, including linear univariate model, linear multivariate model, and physically based VS‐Lite model. The results show that ANN‐based TRW PSM is more suitable for practical PDA applications than other three TRW PSMs in terms of performance and universality. Overall, the performances of the four TRW PSMs in PDA can be ranked as follows (from best to worst): ANN, linear multivariate model, linear univariate model, and physically based VS‐Lite model. In addition, the results of our study not only indicate that the ANN model is a really effective tool for constructing TRW PSM in practical PDA applications but also imply that the ANN model has the potential to provide new insights into the construction of other types of PSMs (e.g., speleothem δ18O PSM) when physics of the climate‐proxy relationships cannot be described fully in advance. Key Points: Artificial neural networks as proxy system models (PSMs) of tree ring width can improve the skill of paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA)Other types of proxies might be better assimilated via PDA with artificial neural networks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Early Pleistocene (Calabrian) clays of the Lindos Bay Formation have been uplifted and are exposed today on the eastern coast of Rhodes (Hellenic forearc, Greece). The hemipelagic origin of these sediments and the excellent preservation of the microfossils they contain, make the Lindos Bay Formation a unique element in the eastern Mediterranean, which has the potential to constitute a paleoclimate referential framework of the region for the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (EMPT). In this context, 98 samples were collected in the type locality section of the Lindos Bay Formation. Stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C) analyses were carried out on benthic (Uvigerina peregrina) and planktonic (Globigerina bulloides) foraminifera for the interval between ∼1100 ka and ∼858 ka. We identify and continuously reconstruct the climate cycles that occurred between Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 32 and 21. Counts of planktonic foraminifera were further carried out and allow connecting the conditions occurring locally in the surface waters with the glacial-interglacial cycles during the onset of the EMPT. While (sub)tropical taxa dominate the assemblages, glacials were associated with short-term (<∼10 kyr) influxes of temperate to subpolar species suggesting cooling and/or increasing productivity in the surface waters correlating with the deposition of sapropels in the eastern Mediterranean deep sea. Finally, planktonic/benthic foraminiferal ratios show that the section deposited at upper bathyal depths between ∼450 m and ∼150 m. During the late Early Pleistocene, the eastern coast of Rhodes has locally undergone repeated, transient and possibly very rapid vertical motions which are overprinted on a regional tectonically-forced regressive trend. Highlights • Foraminiferal stable isotopes and counts in the late Early Pleistocene of Rhodes. • A continuous upper bathyal record exposed onshore for the onset of the EMPT. • A climate referential framework for the Calabrian of the eastern Mediterranean. • Rhodes underwent repeated and rapid vertical motions during the Early Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatland ecosystems are an important archive of paleoclimatic information. Within this context, tree-ring data from trees growing in such ecosystems are extremely valuable resources, and subfossil trees from peat bogs have been widely employed in dendroclimatological studies. However, there are still gaps in our understanding of the relationships among tree growth, peatland hydrology and climate factors. Here, we summarize the principal studies on living peatland trees, with a particular focus on their use as a source of information on past climatic conditions. We discuss the main factors influencing tree growth in this environment, whether it is the local hydrological cycle or climate. We put a particular focus on the reliability of the climate signal recorded by living peatland trees, comparing it with that found in subfossil trees. Finally, we discuss the relevance of quantitative wood anatomy in the context of peatland ecosystems research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We performed phylogeographic and genetic structure analyses of Neothraupis fasciata joined with species distribution modelling to evaluate whether: (1) the distribution of genetic variability shows a pattern expected by the isolation-by-distance model; (2) the influence of the Pleistocene climate changes on species distribution; and (3) climate/climatic stability (hypothesis of climatic stability) as a predictor of population genetic diversity. Based on two molecular datasets (ND2 and FIB-5), the isolation-by-distance hypothesis was not supported. The mitochondrial haplotype network indicated the existence of historically isolated populations at the southern range of the species distribution, and recent population expansion was identified by both neutrality tests and extended Bayesian skyline plot analysis. Thus, the climatic changes during the Pleistocene might have promoted the reconnection of the partially isolated southern populations, which may have persisted in the plateaus during the cycles of savanna contractions. Subsequently, this species (re)colonized northern areas of the species present distribution, following the continuous vegetation on the São Francisco and Central plateaus about 60 kyr, and also reached the Amazonian savannas likely via the central corridor. Thus, our results indicated that the intrinsic relationship between the relief heterogeneity (plateaus and depressions) and the climatic fluctuations, mainly in the Pleistocene, promoted population reconnection and demographic expansion of N. fasciata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moisture delivery in California is largely regulated by the strength and position of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ), winter high-altitude winds that influence regional hydroclimate and forest fire during the following warm season. We use climate model simulations and paleoclimate data to reconstruct winter NPJ characteristics back to 1571 CE to identify the influence of NPJ behavior on moisture and forest fire extremes in California before and during the more recent period of fire suppression. Maximum zonal NPJ velocity is lower and northward shifted and has a larger latitudinal spread during presuppression dry and high-fire extremes. Conversely, maximum zonal NPJ is higher and southward shifted, with narrower latitudinal spread during wet and low-fire extremes. These NPJ, precipitation, and fire associations hold across pre-20th-century socioecological fire regimes, including Native American burning, postcontact disruption and native population decline, and intensification of forest use during the later 19th century. Precipitation extremes and NPJ behavior remain linked in the 20th and 21st centuries, but fire extremes become uncoupled due to fire suppression after 1900. Simulated future conditions in California include more wet-season moisture as rain (and less as snow), a longer fire season, and higher temperatures, leading to drier fire-season conditions independent of 21st-century precipitation changes. Assuming continuation of current fire management practices, thermodynamic warming is expected to override the dynamical influence of the NPJ on climate-fire relationships controlling fire extremes in California. Recent widespread fires in California in association with wet extremes may be early evidence of this change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study reports the micro- and macrobotanical remains on wild Yak dung, providing evidence for understanding the diet, habitat, and ecology of extant and extinct megaherbivores. Grasses are the primary diet of the yak as indicated by the abundance of grass pollen and phytoliths. Other associated non-arboreal and arboreal taxa namely, Cyperacaeae, Rosaceae, Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia, Prunus, and Rhododendron are also important dietary plants for their living. The observation of plant macrobotanical remains especially the vegetative part and seeds of the grasses and Cyperaceae is also in agreement with the palynodata. The documented micro- and macrobotanical data are indicative of both Alpine meadow and steppe vegetation under cold and dry climate which exactly reflected the current vegetation composition and climate in the region. The recovery of Botryococcus, Arcella, and diatom was observed in trace amounts in the palynoassemblage which would have been incorporated in the dung through the ingestion of water and are indicative of the presence of perennial water system in the region. Energy dispersive spectroscopy analysis marked that the element contained in dung samples has variation in relation to the summer and winter, which might be due to the availability of the food plants and vegetation. This generated multiproxy data serves as a strong supplementary data for modern pollen and vegetation relationships based on surface soil samples in the region. The recorded multiproxy data could also be useful to interpret the relationship between the coprolites of herbivorous fauna and the palaeodietary, the palaeoecology in the region, and to correlate with other mega herbivores in a global context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the dynamic of Neolithic settlement on a local scale and its connection to climate variability is often difficult due to missing on-site climate reconstructions from natural archives. Here we bring together archaeological settlement data and a regional climate reconstruction from precipitation-sensitive trees. Both archives hold information about regional settlement dynamics and hydroclimate variability spanning the time of the first farming communities, the so called Linearbandkeramik (LBK) in Bavaria, Germany. Precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series from subfossil oak are used to develop a spring-summer precipitation reconstruction (5700–4800 B.C.E.) representative for southern Germany. Early Neolithic settlement data from Bavaria, mainly for the duration of the LBK settlement activities, are critically evaluated and compared to this unique regional hydroclimate reconstruction as well as to reconstructions of Greenland temperature, summer sea surface temperature, delta 18O and global solar irradiance to investigate the potential impact of climate on Neolithic settlers and their settlement dynamic during the LBK. Our hydroclimate reconstruction demonstrates an extraordinarily high frequency of severe dry and wet spring-summer seasons during the entire LBK, with particularly high year-to-year variability from 5400 to 5101 B.C.E. and with lower fluctuations until 4801 B.C.E. A significant influence of regional climate on the dynamic of the LBK is possible (e.g. around 4960 B.C.E.), but should be interpreted very carefully due to asynchronous trends in settlement dynamics. Thus, we conclude that even when a climate proxy such as tree rings that has excellent spatio-temporal resolution is available, it remains difficult to establish potential connections between the settlement dynamic of the LBK and climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing forest wildfires in Portugal remain a growing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation. Therefore, a long-term negative effect is expected on the vegetation, with increasing drought and areas burnt by fires. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is particularly used in Portugal to produce a spirit by processing its fruits and is the main income for forestry owners. Other applications are possible due to the fruit and leaves’ anti-oxidant properties and bioactive compounds production, with a potential for clinical and food uses. It is a sclerophyllous plant, dry-adapted and fire resistant, enduring the Mediterranean climate, and recently considered as a possibility for afforestation, to intensify forest discontinuity where pines and eucalypts monoculture dominate the region. To improve our knowledge about the species’ spatial distribution we used 318 plots (the centroid of a 1 km2 square grid) measuring the species presence and nine environmental attributes. The seven bioclimatic variables most impacting on the species distribution and two topographic features, slope and altitude, were used. The past, current and future climate data were obtained through WorldClim. Finally, the vulnerability of the strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined in the face of two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to predict distribution changes in the years 2050 and 2070, using a species distribution models (MaxEnt). The reduction of suitable habitat for this species is significant in the southern regions, considering the future scenarios of global warming. Central and northern mountainous regions are putative predicted refuges for this species. Forest policy and management should reflect the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, particularly considering species adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as the strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) agrees with previous genetic and paleontological studies in the region, which support putative refuges for the species. Two in the southern and coastal-central regions, since the LGM, and one in the east-central mountainous region, considered as cryptic refugia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers need information about the vulnerability of historical plant communities, and their potential future conditions, to respond appropriately to landscape change driven by global climate change. We model the climate envelopes of plant communities on the Kenai Peninsula in Southcentral Alaska and forecast to 2020, 2050, and 2080. We assess 6 model outputs representing downscaled climate data from 3 global climate model outputs and 2 representative concentration pathways. We use two lines of evidence, model convergence and empirically measured rates of change, to identify the following plausible ecological trajectories for the peninsula: (1.) alpine tundra and sub-alpine shrub decrease, (2.) perennial snow and ice decrease, (3.) forests remain on the Kenai Lowlands, (4.) the contiguous white-Lutz-Sitka spruce complex declines, and (5.) mixed conifer afforestation occurs along the Gulf of Alaska coast. We suggest that converging models in the context of other lines of evidence is a viable approach to increase certainty for adaptation planning. Extremely dynamic areas with multiple outcomes (i.e., disagreement) among models represent ecological risk, but may also represent opportunities for facilitated adaptation and other managerial approaches to help tip the balance one way or another. By reducing uncertainty, this eclectic approach can be used to inform expectations about the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive evaporites in Lower Mississippian successions from palaeoequatorial regions are commonly used as evidence for an arid to semi‐arid palaeoclimate. However, in this article, detailed studies of evaporites and their context refute this interpretation. Detailed sedimentological and petrographical analysis of the Lower Mississippian of northern Britain, is combined with archived log data from more than 40 boreholes across southern Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland, and published literature from Canada. Two key cores from the Tweed Basin and the northern margin of the Northumberland – Solway Basin contain 178 evaporite intervals and reveal twelve distinct forms of gypsum and anhydrite across seven facies that are associated with planar laminated siltstone and intercalated thin beds of ferroan dolostone. Nodular gypsum and anhydrite, typically in intervals <1 to 2 m thick, are integral components of the succession. Nodular evaporite occurs within about 1 m of a palaeosurface, but most evaporite deposits represent ephemeral brine pans to semi‐permanent hypersaline lakes or salinas on a floodplain that was subjected periodically to storm surges introducing marine waters. Formation of evaporites under a strongly seasonal climate in a coastal wetland is supported by palaeosol types and geochemical proxies, and from palaeobotanical evidence published previously. Although 65% of modern equatorial areas experience a strongly seasonal climatic regime, salinas and sabkhas are a minor component today in comparison with the evidence from these Lower Mississippian successions. This implies that the earliest terrestrial environments were complex and dynamic, providing a diverse range of habitats in which the early tetrapods became terrestrialized and represent a setting that is rarely preserved in the geological record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Strait of Gibraltar, the gateway between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a convulsive geological history, with recurring closing and opening events since the late Miocene. As a consequence, this region has played a major role in the evolutionary history of many species. Cynara baetica (Compositae) is a diploid perennial herb distributed in both sides of this strait. It is currently subdivided into two subspecies: C. baetica subsp. baetica for the Spanish populations, and C. baetica subsp. maroccana for the Moroccan ones. Following three different approximations of species delimitation, including phylogenetic and population genetic analyses (based on three AFLP primer combinations and two intergenic spacers of cpDNA), ecological niche modeling (ENM) and morphological studies, this taxon is investigated and reinterpreted. The results obtained showed a clear genetic, morphological and ecological differentiation between the two taxa and the important role played by the Strait of Gibraltar as a geographical barrier. Based on this evidence, the current taxonomic treatment is modified (both taxa should recover their specific rank) and specific conservation guidelines are proposed for the newly delimited taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multi-period (~38,000–6000 cal BP) site of Franchthi Cave, located in the Argolid peninsula of southern mainland Greece, is unique in the Eastern Mediterranean for preserving a long archaeological sequence extending from the Upper Palaeolithic through to the end of the Neolithic period. In this paper, we present new anthracological (carbonized fuel wood waste) evidence from Franchthi Cave with which we reconstruct the changing ecology of woodland vegetation in its environs during the late Pleistocene and the early-mid Holocene. The integrated archaeobotanical record (charred wood and non-wood macro-remains) demonstrates that in the Lateglacial the now-submerged coastal shelf of the southern Argolid peninsula was covered by steppe grassland vegetation dominated by junipers, almonds, cereals and legumes. The rapid climatic amelioration that marked the start of the Holocene brought about the disappearance of juniper and the expansion of deciduous woodland, cereals and lentils. This woodland-grassland biome bears no analogues in the modern and historical vegetation ecology of the Aegean basin. Instead, it is directly comparable to the steppe woodland biomes exploited by late Pleistocene and early Holocene hunter-gatherers in Southwest Asia, and points to the convergent evolution of late Pleistocene and early Holocene plant exploitation strategies between the two regions. Continuous sea-level rise during the early Holocene led to the gradual extinction of this unique palaeohabitat, which acted as the catalyst for the selective introduction of domesticated cereal crops at Franchthi Cave in the early 9th millennium cal BP. Our meta-analysis of the non-wood archaeobotanical data puts into question the concept of the wholesale introduction of a crop “package” by pioneer settler groups arriving from the East. It is proposed instead that selective cereal crop introduction formed part of a complex pattern of sociocultural interactions that brought together indigenous and immigrant groups into new communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debated question on the possible relation between the Earth’s magnetic field and climate has been usually focused on direct correlations between different time series representing both systems. However, the physical mechanism able to potentially explain this connection is still an open issue. Finding hints about how this connection could work would suppose an important advance in the search of an adequate physical mechanism. Here, we propose an innovative information-theoretic tool, i.e. the transfer entropy, as a good candidate for this scope because is able to determine, not simply the possible existence of a connection, but even the direction in which the link is produced. We have applied this new methodology to two real time series, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) area extent at the Earth’s surface (representing the geomagnetic field system) and the Global Sea Level (GSL) rise (for the climate system) for the last 300 years, to measure the possible information flow and sense between them. This connection was previously suggested considering only the long-term trend while now we study this possibility also in shorter scales. The new results seem to support this hypothesis, with more information transferred from the SAA to the GSL time series, with about 90% of confidence level. This result provides new clues on the existence of a link between the geomagnetic field and the Earth’s climate in the past and on the physical mechanism involved because, thanks to the application of the transfer entropy, we have determined that the sense of the connection seems to go from the system that produces geomagnetic field to the climate system. Of course, the connection does not mean that the geomagnetic field is fully responsible for the climate changes, rather that it is an important driving component to the variations of the climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several species of the Gypsophila genus are endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, including gypsophytes of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest, and taxa that have undergone both sympatric and allopatric genetic differentiation. The niche shift among these taxa has been assessed using ecological niche modelling and ordination techniques, adopting a niche overlap approach to compare the similarity and equivalency of the ecological niches. We used the Maximum Entropy method to study the potential distribution of these taxa in different eras: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid Holocene and the current conditions. We present evidence of niche shift during the speciation of G. bermejoi, with a strong niche overlap between the parental taxa (G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa), yet both overlap much more weakly with the hybrid species. This phenomenon may be explained by genetic and epigenetic interactions, and it has been described in other species. We also studied the sister subspecies G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. struthium subsp. hispanica, with mostly allopatric distributions and with the Iberian System mountain range acting as a geographical barrier. The Iberian System and other mountain ranges may have favored differences in the climatic conditions on either side of the mountain range, which is consistent with an incipient process of bioclimatic ecological speciation. These results seem to indicate that niche shift can occur over very different timespans. In the case of G. bermejoi, speciation may have produced significant niche shifting in one or two generations due to its alloploid nature. By contrast, G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. struthium subsp. hispanica seem to have undergone a more gradual process of allopatric genetic differentiation driven by bioclimatic factors. Both these processes are relatively recent and they will have been strongly influenced by the climate change at the end of LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Knowledge about the environmental impact of alcohol is limited and as an effect alcohol is often excluded from environmental studies of diets or included in incomplete ways. This paper describes the climate impact of beer, wine and liquor by using life cycle assessment. The climate impact is quantified per litre of specific alcoholic beverages and per total amount of alcohol consumed based on self-reported data of 50 000 individuals from 2009 within two population-based cohorts in Sweden. The results show that alcoholic beverages generate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the range of 0.73–2.38 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 e) per litre. Alcohol consumption in the population studied generates on average 52 kg CO 2 e per person and year. Within the 10% of the population with the highest intake of alcohol GHG emissions are up to 202 kg CO 2 e per person and year. Consumption of wine is responsible for the largest share of GHG emissions from alcoholic beverages (61%) followed by beer (33%), while liquor and strong wine account for a smaller share (6%). Alcohol consumption among men generates 90% higher GHG emissions than among women. Alcohol consumption and in consequence alcohol-related emissions are decreasing with increasing age of men and women. Our results indicate that alcohol consumption in Swedish men and women is responsible for an average of 3% of total diet-related GHG emissions and in sub-populations with the highest consumption up to 6–11%. Limiting alcohol could be an effective option to reduce the climate impact of diets, especially among men. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Beer, wine and spirits generate 0.73–2.38 kg of CO 2 equivalents per litre. • Alcohol intake generated 52 kg of CO 2 equivalents per person and year. • Alcohol intake among men generates 90% higher GHG emissions than among women. • GHG emissions from alcohol intake decrease with increasing age. • Alcohol intake in Sweden is responsible for about 3% of dietary GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]