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Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) often enroll large numbers of participants; yet due to resource constraints, only a subset of participants may be selected for outcome assessment, and those sampled may not be representative of all cluster members. Missing data also present a challenge: if sampled individuals with measured outcomes are dissimilar from those with missing outcomes, unadjusted estimates of arm-specific endpoints and the intervention effect may be biased. Further, CRTs often enroll and randomize few clusters, limiting statistical power and raising concerns about finite sample performance. Motivated by SEARCH-TB, a CRT aimed at reducing incident tuberculosis infection, we demonstrate interlocking methods to handle these challenges. First, we extend Two-Stage targeted minimum loss-based estimation to account for three sources of missingness: (i) subsampling; (ii) measurement of baseline status among those sampled; and (iii) measurement of final status among those in the incidence cohort (persons known to be at risk at baseline). Second, we critically evaluate the assumptions under which subunits of the cluster can be considered the conditionally independent unit, improving precision and statistical power but also causing the CRT to behave like an observational study. Our application to SEARCH-TB highlights the real-world impact of different assumptions on measurement and dependence; estimates relying on unrealistic assumptions suggested the intervention increased the incidence of TB infection by 18% (risk ratio [RR]=1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-1.63), while estimates accounting for the sampling scheme, missingness, and within community dependence found the intervention decreased the incident TB by 27% (RR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.57-0.92).

IntroductionIdentifying the optimal approaches to offering HIV prevention to meet the needs of those at risk is a high priority, particularly given the expanding toolkit of biomedical HIV prevention options. An ongoing study in rural East African communities evaluated the uptake of choices in product, testing mode and location of care delivery through a structured patient-centred HIV prevention delivery model. In this qualitative study, we sought to understand clients' experiences of this "dynamic choice prevention model" (DCP) and highlight pathways of action to inform HIV prevention delivery models.MethodsIn-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted from November 2021 through March 2022 with a purposively selected sample of n = 56 participants in DCP trials (across outpatient departments, antenatal clinics and community settings), and n = 21 healthcare providers (total n = 77). A seven-person multi-regional team translated and inductively coded transcript data. We used a framework analysis approach to identify emergent themes.ResultsIndividuals taking up HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reported feelings of relief, liberation from fears of acquiring HIV and satisfaction with being able to take action despite partners' behaviours. Couples used a range of approaches afforded by the study to persuade partners to get tested and opt for PrEP. Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) use was less common, although women welcomed it in the event of sexual coercion or assault. Participants discussed switching from PEP to PrEP after familiarizing themselves with usage and ascertaining ongoing risk. Participants felt respected by providers, trusted them and appreciated being able to contact them directly for telephone support. Prevention uptake was hindered by stigma, limited experience with and knowledge of prevention methods, gendered and generational power dynamics within intimate partnerships and families, and negative perceptions of methods due to the products themselves. Participants anticipated long-acting injectable PrEP could solve their challenges regarding pill size, daily pill burden and the likelihood of unwanted disclosure.ConclusionsDiverse preferences and barriers to uptake of prevention require a choice of HIV prevention options, locations and delivery modalities-but in addition, flexible, competent and friendly care provision is crucial to promote uptake. Helping clients feel valued, and addressing their unique needs and challenges, enables their agency to prioritize their health.

BackgroundPregnant and postpartum women in Sub-Saharan Africa are at high risk of HIV acquisition. We evaluated a person-centered dynamic choice intervention for HIV prevention (DCP) among women attending antenatal and postnatal care.SettingRural Kenya and Uganda.MethodsWomen (aged 15 years or older) at risk of HIV acquisition seen at antenatal and postnatal care clinics were individually randomized to DCP vs. standard of care (SEARCH; NCT04810650). The DCP intervention included structured client choice of product (daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis or postexposure prophylaxis), service location (clinic or out of facility), and HIV testing modality (self-test or provider-administered), with option to switch over time and person-centered care (phone access to clinician, structured barrier assessment and counseling, and provider training). The primary outcome was biomedical prevention coverage-proportion of 48-week follow-up with self-reported pre-exposure prophylaxis or postexposure prophylaxis use, compared between arms using targeted maximum likelihood estimation.ResultsBetween April and July 2021, we enrolled 400 women (203 intervention and 197 control); 38% were pregnant, 52% were aged 15-24 years, and 94% reported no pre-exposure prophylaxis or postexposure prophylaxis use for ≥6 months before baseline. Among 384/400 participants (96%) with outcome ascertained, DCP increased biomedical prevention coverage 40% (95% CI: 34% to 47%; P < 0.001); the coverage was 70% in intervention vs. 29% in control. DCP also increased coverage during months at risk of HIV (81% in intervention, 43% in control; 38% absolute increase; 95% CI: 31% to 45%; P < 0.001).ConclusionA person-centered dynamic choice intervention that provided flexibility in product, testing, and service location more than doubled biomedical HIV prevention coverage in a high-risk population already routinely offered access to biomedical prevention options.

Benkeser et al. demonstrate how adjustment for baseline covariates in randomized trials can meaningfully improve precision for a variety of outcome types. Their findings build on a long history, starting in 1932 with R.A. Fisher and including more recent endorsements by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency. Here, we address an important practical consideration: how to select the adjustment approach-which variables and in which form-to maximize precision, while maintaining Type-I error control. Balzer et al. previously proposed Adaptive Pre-specification within TMLE to flexibly and automatically select, from a prespecified set, the approach that maximizes empirical efficiency in small trials (N < 40). To avoid overfitting with few randomized units, selection was previously limited to working generalized linear models, adjusting for a single covariate. Now, we tailor Adaptive Pre-specification to trials with many randomized units. Using V-fold cross-validation and the estimated influence curve-squared as the loss function, we select from an expanded set of candidates, including modern machine learning methods adjusting for multiple covariates. As assessed in simulations exploring a variety of data-generating processes, our approach maintains Type-I error control (under the null) and offers substantial gains in precision-equivalent to 20%-43% reductions in sample size for the same statistical power. When applied to real data from ACTG Study 175, we also see meaningful efficiency improvements overall and within subgroups.

BackgroundPersons with HIV (PWH) with high mobility face obstacles to HIV care engagement and viral suppression. We sought to understand whether a patient-centered intervention for mobile PWH would improve viral suppression and retention in care, and if so, which subgroups would benefit most.MethodsIn a randomized trial, we evaluated the effect of an intervention designed to address barriers to care among mobile (≥2 weeks out of community in previous year) PWH with viral nonsuppression or recent missed visits in Kenya and Uganda (NCT04810650). The intervention included dynamic choice of a "travel pack" (emergency antiretroviral therapy [ART] supply, discrete ART packaging, and travel checklist), multimonth and offsite refills, facilitated transfer to out-of-community clinics, and hotline access to a mobility coordinator. The primary outcome was viral suppression (

IntroductionOptimizing HIV prevention may require structured approaches for providing client-centred choices as well as community-based entry points and delivery. We evaluated the effect of a dynamic choice model for HIV prevention, delivered by community health workers (CHWs) with clinician support, on the use of biomedical prevention among persons at risk of HIV in rural East Africa.MethodsWe conducted a cluster randomized trial among persons (≥15 years) with current or anticipated HIV risk in 16 villages in Uganda and Kenya (SEARCH; NCT04810650). The intervention was a client-centred HIV prevention model, including (1) structured client choice of product (pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP] or post-exposure prophylaxis [PEP]), service location (clinic or out-of-clinic) and HIV testing modality (self-test or rapid test), with the ability to switch over time; (2) a structured assessment of patient barriers and development of a personalized support plan; and (3) phone access to a clinician 24/7. The intervention was delivered by CHWs and supported by clinicians who oversaw PrEP and PEP initiation and monitoring. Participants in control villages were referred to local health facilities for HIV prevention services, delivered by Ministry of Health staff. The primary outcome was biomedical prevention coverage: a proportion of 48-week follow-up with self-reported PrEP or PEP use.ResultsFrom May to July 2021, we enrolled 429 people (212 intervention; 217 control): 57% women and 35% aged 15-24 years. Among intervention participants, 58% chose PrEP and 58% chose PEP at least once over follow-up; self-testing increased from 52% (baseline) to 71% (week 48); ≥98% chose out-of-facility service delivery. Among 413 (96%) participants with the primary outcome ascertained, average biomedical prevention coverage was 28.0% in the intervention versus 0.5% in the control: a difference of 27.5% (95% CI: 23.0-31.9%, p

IntroductionUnhealthy alcohol use significantly contributes to viral non-suppression among persons with HIV (PWH). It is unknown whether brief behavioural interventions to reduce alcohol use can improve viral suppression among PWH with unhealthy alcohol use in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).MethodsAs part of the SEARCH study (NCT04810650), we conducted an individually randomized trial in Kenya and Uganda of a brief, skills-based alcohol intervention among PWH with self-reported unhealthy alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption [AUDIT-C], prior 3 months, ≥3/female; ≥4/male) and at risk of viral non-suppression, defined as either recent HIV viral non-suppression (≥400 copies/ml), missed visits, out of care or new diagnosis. The intervention included baseline and 3-month in-person counselling sessions with interim booster phone calls every 3 weeks. The primary outcome was HIV viral suppression (200 ng/ml (RR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.92-1.02).ConclusionsIn a randomized trial of 401 PWH with unhealthy alcohol use and risk for viral non-suppression, a brief alcohol intervention reduced unhealthy alcohol use but did not affect viral suppression at 24 weeks. Brief alcohol interventions have the potential to improve the health of PWH in SSA by reducing alcohol use, a significant driver of HIV-associated co-morbidities.

ObjectivesDetermine whether patient-centered, streamlined HIV care achieves higher antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake and viral suppression than the standard treatment model for people with HIV (PWH) reporting hazardous alcohol use.DesignCommunity cluster-randomized trial.MethodsThe Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health trial (NCT01864603) compared an intervention of annual population HIV testing, universal ART, and patient-centered care with a control of baseline population testing with ART by country standard in 32 Kenyan and Ugandan communities. Adults (15 years or older) completed a baseline Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) and were classified as no/nonhazardous (AUDIT-C 0-2 women/0-3 men) or hazardous alcohol use (≥3 women/≥4 men). We compared year 3 ART uptake and viral suppression of PWH reporting hazardous use between intervention and control arms. We compared alcohol use as a predictor of year 3 ART uptake and viral suppression among PWH, by arm.ResultsOf 11,070 PWH with AUDIT-C measured, 1723 (16%) reported any alcohol use and 893 (8%) reported hazardous use. Among PWH reporting hazardous use, the intervention arm had higher ART uptake (96%) and suppression (87%) compared with control (74%, adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.38; and 72%, aRR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.31, respectively). Within arm, hazardous alcohol use predicted lower ART uptake in control (aRR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.78 to 0.96), but not intervention (aRR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.04); use was not predictive of suppression in either arm.ConclusionsThe Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health intervention improved ART uptake and viral suppression among PWH reporting hazardous alcohol use and eliminated gaps in ART uptake between PWH with hazardous and no/nonhazardous use. Patient-centered HIV care may decrease barriers to HIV care for PWH with hazardous alcohol use.

IntroductionPerson-centred HIV prevention delivery models that offer structured choices in product, testing and visit location may increase coverage. However, data are lacking on the actual uptake of choices among persons at risk of HIV in southern Africa. In an ongoing randomized study (SEARCH; NCT04810650) in rural East Africa, we evaluated the uptake of choices made when offered in a person-centred, dynamic choice model for HIV prevention.MethodsUsing the PRECEDE framework, we developed a persont-centred, Dynamic Choice HIV Prevention (DCP) intervention for persons at risk of HIV in three settings in rural Kenya and Uganda: antenatal clinic (ANC), outpatient department (OPD) and in the community. Components include: provider training on product choice (predisposing); flexibility and responsiveness to client desires and choices (pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]/post-exposure prophylaxis [PEP], clinic vs. off-site visits and self- or clinician-based HIV testing) (enabling); and client and staff feedback (reinforcing). All clients received a structured assessment of barriers with personalized plans to address them, mobile phone access to clinicians (24 hours/7 days/week) and integrated reproductive health services. In this interim analysis, we describe the uptake of choices of product, location and testing during the first 24 weeks of follow-up (April 2021-March 2022).ResultsA total of 612 (203 ANC, 197 OPD and 212 community) participants were randomized to the person-centred DCP intervention. We delivered the DCP intervention in all three settings with diverse populations: ANC: 39% pregnant; median age: 24 years; OPD: 39% male, median age 27 years; and community: 42% male, median age: 29 years. Baseline choice of PrEP was highest in ANC (98%) vs. OPD (84%) and community (40%); whereas the proportion of adults selecting PEP was higher in the community (46%) vs. OPD (8%) and ANC (1%). Personal preference for off-site visits increased over time (65% at week 24 vs. 35% at baseline). Interest in alternative HIV testing modalities grew over time (38% baseline self-testing vs. 58% at week 24).ConclusionsA person-centred model incorporating structured choice in biomedical prevention and care delivery options in settings with demographically diverse groups, in rural Kenya and Uganda, was responsive to varying personal preferences over time in HIV prevention programmes.

IntroductionSwitch to dolutegravir (DTG) in treatment-experienced people living with HIV (PLH) is associated with excess weight gain in some settings; data are limited from rural low-income settings with low obesity prevalence.MethodsIn rural Kenya, we conducted a retrospective cohort study at 8 HIV clinics and a single-site prospective cohort study including adults switching to DTG during countrywide transition to DTG/tenofovir DF(TDF)/emtricitabine as first-line HIV treatment. In the retrospective analysis, we used preswitch data to model postswitch weight trajectory had each participant not switched to DTG and contrasted observed vs. predicted postswitch weight. In the prospective analysis, we measured weight post-DTG switch and evaluated predictors of 6-month weight change.ResultsOur retrospective cohort included 4445 PLH who switched to DTG between 2018 and 2020. Mean 12-month weight change was 0.6 kg preswitch and 0.8 kg postswitch. Among those on TDF throughout (n = 3374; 83% on efavirenz preswitch), 12-month postswitch weight was 0.7 kg more than predicted for women (95% CI: 0.4, 1.0) and similar among men (0.04 kg; 95% CI -0.3, 0.4). In our prospective cohort (n = 135, 100% female), mean 6-month weight change was +0.4 kg (IQR -1.1, 2.0 kg). Predicted gain varied by baseline food insecurity: +1.1 kg (95% CI: 0.34, 1.87) among food secure, -0.09 kg (95% CI -0.71, 0.54) among moderate insecure, and +0.27 kg (95% CI -0.82, 1.36) among severe insecurity.ConclusionIn contrast to some reports of large weight gain following switch to DTG, we observed small weight increases in women and no weight change in men following DTG switch when on TDF throughout. Weight gain may be attenuated by food insecurity, though was modest even among food secure.

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) randomly assign an intervention to groups of individuals (e.g., clinics or communities) and measure outcomes on individuals in those groups. While offering many advantages, this experimental design introduces challenges that are only partially addressed by existing analytic approaches. First, outcomes are often missing for some individuals within clusters. Failing to appropriately adjust for differential outcome measurement can result in biased estimates and inference. Second, CRTs often randomize limited numbers of clusters, resulting in chance imbalances on baseline outcome predictors between arms. Failing to adaptively adjust for these imbalances and other predictive covariates can result in efficiency losses. To address these methodological gaps, we propose and evaluate a novel two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator to adjust for baseline covariates in a manner that optimizes precision, after controlling for baseline and postbaseline causes of missing outcomes. Finite sample simulations illustrate that our approach can nearly eliminate bias due to differential outcome measurement, while existing CRT estimators yield misleading results and inferences. Application to real data from the SEARCH community randomized trial demonstrates the gains in efficiency afforded through adaptive adjustment for baseline covariates, after controlling for missingness on individual-level outcomes.

BackgroundSocial network analysis can elucidate tuberculosis transmission dynamics outside the home and may inform novel network-based case-finding strategies.MethodsWe assessed the association between social network characteristics and prevalent tuberculosis infection among residents (aged ≥15 years) of 9 rural communities in Eastern Uganda. Social contacts named during a census were used to create community-specific nonhousehold social networks. We evaluated whether social network structure and characteristics of first-degree contacts (sex, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] status, tuberculosis infection) were associated with revalent tuberculosis infection (positive tuberculin skin test [TST] result) after adjusting for individual-level risk factors (age, sex, HIV status, tuberculosis contact, wealth, occupation, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG] vaccination) with targeted maximum likelihood estimation.ResultsAmong 3 335 residents sampled for TST, 32% had a positive TST results and 4% reported a tuberculosis contact. The social network contained 15 328 first-degree contacts. Persons with the most network centrality (top 10%) (adjusted risk ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.1]) and the most (top 10%) male contacts (1.5 [1.3-1.9]) had a higher risk of prevalent tuberculosis, than those in the remaining 90%. People with ≥1 contact with HIV (adjusted risk ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.6]) and ≥2 contacts with tuberculosis infection were more likely to have tuberculosis themselves (2.6 [ 95% confidence interval: 2.2-2.9]).ConclusionsSocial networks with higher centrality, more men, contacts with HIV, and tuberculosis infection were positively associated with tuberculosis infection. Tuberculosis transmission within measurable social networks may explain prevalent tuberculosis not associated with a household contact. Further study on network-informed tuberculosis case finding interventions is warranted.

Youth living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa have poor HIV care outcomes. We determined the association of recent significant life-events with HIV antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and HIV viral suppression in youth aged 15-24 years living with HIV in rural Kenya and Uganda. This was a cross-sectional analysis of 995 youth enrolled in the SEARCH Youth study. At baseline, providers assessed recent (within 6 months) life-events, defined as changes in schooling/employment, residence, partnerships, sickness, incarceration status, family strife or death, and birth/pregnancy, self-reported alcohol use, being a parent, and HIV-status disclosure. We examined the frequencies of events and their association with ART status and HIV viral suppression (2 significant life-events (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI:0.45-0.85) and consuming alcohol (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI:0.43-0.87) were associated with a lower odds of HIV viral suppression, while disclosure of HIV-status to partner (aOR = 2.39, 95% CI:1.6-3.5) or to family (aOR = 1.86, 95% CI:1.3-2.7), being a parent (aOR = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.5), and being single (aOR = 1.6, 95% CI:1.3-2.1) had a higher odds. This suggest that two or more recent life-events and alcohol use are key barriers to ART initiation and achievement of viral suppression among youth living with HIV in rural East Africa.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03848728..

BackgroundDespite longstanding guidelines endorsing isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for people with HIV, uptake is low across sub-Saharan Africa. Mid-level health managers oversee IPT programmes nationally; interventions aimed at this group have not been tested. We aimed to establish whether providing structured leadership and management training and facilitating subregional collaboration and routine data feedback to mid-level managers could increase IPT initiation among people with HIV compared with standard practice.MethodsWe conducted a cluster randomised trial in Uganda among district-level health managers. We randomly assigned clusters of between four and seven managers in a 1:1 ratio to intervention or control groups. Our intervention convened managers into mini-collaboratives facilitated by Ugandan experts in tuberculosis and HIV, and provided business leadership and management training, SMS platform access, and data feedback. The control was standard practice. Participants were not masked to trial group, but study statisticians were masked until trial completion. The primary outcome was IPT initiation rates among adults with HIV in facilities overseen by participants over a period of 2 years (2019-21). We conducted prespecified analyses that excluded the third quarter of 2019 (Q3-2019) to understand intervention effects independent of a national 100-day IPT push tied to a financial contingency during Q3-2019. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03315962), and is ongoing.FindingsBetween Nov 15, 2017, and March 14, 2018, managers from 82 of 82 eligible districts (61% of Uganda's 135 districts) were enrolled and randomised: 43 districts to intervention, 39 to control. Intervention delivery took place between Dec 6, 2017, and Feb 2, 2022. Over 2 years, IPT initiation rates were 0·74 versus 0·65 starts per person-year in intervention versus control groups (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·14, 95% CI 0·88-1·46; p=0·16). Excluding Q3-2019, IPT initiation was higher in the intervention group versus the control group: 0·32 versus 0·25 starts per person-year (IRR 1·27, 95% CI 1·00-1·61; p=0·026).InterpretationFollowing an intervention targeting managers in more than 60% of Uganda's districts, IPT initiation rates were not significantly higher in intervention than control groups. After accounting for large increases in IPT from a 100-day push in both groups, the intervention led to significantly increased IPT rates, sustained after the push and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings suggest that interventions centred on mid-level health managers can improve IPT implementation on a large, subnational scale, and merit further exploration to address key public health challenges for which strong evidence exists but implementation remains suboptimal.FundingNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Study questionIs sperm epigenetic aging (SEA) associated with probability of pregnancy among couples in the general population?Summary answerWe observed a 17% lower cumulative probability at 12 months for couples with male partners in the older compared to the younger SEA categories.What is known alreadyThe strong relation between chronological age and DNA methylation profiles has enabled the estimation of biological age as epigenetic 'clock' metrics in most somatic tissue. Such clocks in male germ cells are less developed and lack clinical relevance in terms of their utility to predict reproductive outcomes.Study design, size, durationThis was a population-based prospective cohort study of couples discontinuing contraception to become pregnant recruited from 16 US counties from 2005 to 2009 and followed for up to 12 months.Participants/materials, setting, methodsSperm DNA methylation from 379 semen samples was assessed via a beadchip array. A state-of-the-art ensemble machine learning algorithm was employed to predict age from the sperm DNA methylation data. SEA was estimated from clocks derived from individual CpGs (SEACpG) and differentially methylated regions (SEADMR). Probability of pregnancy within 1 year was compared by SEA, and discrete-time proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relations with time-to-pregnancy (TTP) with adjustment for covariates.Main results and the role of chanceOur SEACpG clock had the highest predictive performance with correlation between chronological and predicted age (r = 0.91). In adjusted discrete Cox models, SEACpG was negatively associated with TTP (fecundability odds ratios (FORs)=0.83; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.90; P = 1.2×10-5), indicating a longer TTP with advanced SEACpG. For subsequent birth outcomes, advanced SEACpG was associated with shorter gestational age (n = 192; -2.13 days; 95% CI: -3.67, -0.59; P = 0.007). Current smokers also displayed advanced SEACpG (P

BackgroundApproaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective.MethodsWe applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP.FindingsIn the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished.InterpretationUnder the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation.FundingUS Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundFewer than 10% of people with hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa are diagnosed, linked to care, and achieve hypertension control. We hypothesized that a one-time financial incentive and phone call reminder for missed appointments would increase linkage to hypertension care following community-based screening in rural Uganda and Kenya.MethodsIn a randomized controlled trial, we conducted community-based hypertension screening and enrolled adults ≥25 years with blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg on three measures; we excluded participants with known hypertension or hypertensive emergency. The intervention was transportation reimbursement upon linkage (~$5 USD) and up to three reminder phone calls for those not linking within seven days. Control participants received a clinic referral only. Outcomes were linkage to hypertension care within 30 days (primary) and hypertension control

BackgroundWe tested the hypothesis that patient-centered, streamlined human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care would achieve lower mortality than the standard treatment model for persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL in the setting of population-wide HIV testing.MethodsIn the SEARCH (Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health) Study (NCT01864603), 32 communities in rural Uganda and Kenya were randomized to country-guided antiretroviral therapy (ART) versus streamlined ART care that included rapid ART start, visit spacing, flexible clinic hours, and welcoming environment. We assessed persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL, ART eligible in both arms, and estimated the effect of streamlined care on ART initiation and mortality at 3 years. Comparisons between study arms used a cluster-level analysis with survival estimates from Kaplan-Meier; estimates of ART start among ART-naive persons treated death as a competing risk.ResultsAmong 13 266 adults with HIV, 2973 (22.4%) had CD4 ≤ 350/uL. Of these, 33% were new diagnoses, and 10% were diagnosed but ART-naive. Men with HIV were almost twice as likely as women with HIV to have CD4 ≤ 350/uL and be untreated (15% vs 8%, respectively). Streamlined care reduced mortality by 28% versus control (risk ratio [RR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .56, .93; P = .02). Despite eligibility in both arms, persons with CD4 ≤ 350/uL started ART faster under streamlined care versus control (76% vs 43% by 12 months, respectively; P

BackgroundHypertension treatment reduces morbidity and mortality yet has not been broadly implemented in many low-resource settings, including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We hypothesized that a patient-centered integrated chronic disease model that included hypertension treatment and leveraged the HIV care system would reduce mortality among adults with uncontrolled hypertension in rural Kenya and Uganda.Methods and findingsThis is a secondary analysis of the SEARCH trial (NCT:01864603), in which 32 communities underwent baseline population-based multidisease testing, including hypertension screening, and were randomized to standard country-guided treatment or to a patient-centered integrated chronic care model including treatment for hypertension, diabetes, and HIV. Patient-centered care included on-site introduction to clinic staff at screening, nursing triage to expedite visits, reduced visit frequency, flexible clinic hours, and a welcoming clinic environment. The analytic population included nonpregnant adults (≥18 years) with baseline uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg). The primary outcome was 3-year all-cause mortality with comprehensive population-level assessment. Secondary outcomes included hypertension control assessed at a population level at year 3 (defined per country guidelines as at least 1 blood pressure measure

BackgroundThe SEARCH study provided community-based HIV and multidisease testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) to 32 communities in East Africa and reported no statistically significant difference in 3-year HIV incidence. We used mathematical modeling to estimate the effect of control arm viral suppression and community mixing on SEARCH trial outcomes.SettingUganda and Kenya.MethodsUsing the individual-based HIV modeling software EMOD-HIV, we configured a new model of SEARCH communities. The model was parameterized using demographic, HIV prevalence, male circumcision, and viral suppression data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, ART coverage, and population size. Using assumptions about ART scale-up in the control arm, degree of community mixing, and effect of baseline testing, we estimated comparative HIV incidence under multiple scenarios.ResultsBefore the trial results, we predicted that SEARCH would report a 4%-40% reduction between arms, depending on control arm ART linkage rates and community mixing. With universal baseline testing followed by rapidly expanded ART eligibility and uptake, modeled effect sizes were smaller than the study was powered to detect. Using interim viral suppression data, we estimated 3-year cumulative incidence would have been reduced by up to 27% in the control arm and 43% in the intervention arm compared with a counterfactual without universal baseline testing.ConclusionsOur model suggests that the active control arm substantially reduced expected effect size and power of the SEARCH study. However, compared with a counterfactual "true control" without increased ART linkage because of baseline testing, SEARCH reduced HIV incidence by up to 43%.

BackgroundSocial isolation among HIV-positive persons might be an important barrier to care. Using data from the SEARCH Study in rural Kenya and Uganda, we constructed 32 community-wide, sociocentric networks and evaluated whether less socially connected HIV-positive persons were less likely to know their status, have initiated treatment, and be virally suppressed.MethodsBetween 2013 and 2014, 168,720 adult residents in the SEARCH Study were census-enumerated, offered HIV testing, and asked to name social contacts. Social networks were constructed by matching named contacts to other residents. We characterized the resulting networks and estimated risk ratios (aRR) associated with poor HIV care outcomes, adjusting for sociodemographic factors and clustering by community with generalized estimating equations.ResultsThe sociocentric networks contained 170,028 residents (nodes) and 362,965 social connections (edges). Among 11,239 HIV-positive persons who named ≥1 contact, 30.9% were previously undiagnosed, 43.7% had not initiated treatment, and 49.4% had viral nonsuppression. Lower social connectedness, measured by the number of persons naming an HIV-positive individual as a contact (in-degree), was associated with poorer outcomes in Uganda, but not Kenya. Specifically, HIV-positive persons in the lowest connectedness tercile were less likely to be previously diagnosed (Uganda-West aRR: 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.96]; Uganda-East aRR: 0.85 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.96]); on treatment (Uganda-West aRR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.80, 0.98]; Uganda-East aRR: 0.81 [0.72, 0.92]), and suppressed (Uganda-West aRR: 0.84 [95% CI: 0.73, 0.96]; Uganda-East aRR: 0.74 [95% CI: 0.58, 0.94]) than those in the highest connectedness tercile.ConclusionsHIV-positive persons named as a contact by fewer people may be at higher risk for poor HIV care outcomes, suggesting opportunities for targeted interventions.

IntroductionAntiretroviral-based HIV prevention, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is expanding in generalized epidemic settings, but additional prevention options are needed for individuals with periodic, high-risk sexual exposures. Non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is recommended in global guidelines. However, in Africa, awareness of and access to PEP for sexual exposures are limited. We assessed feasibility, acceptability, uptake and adherence in a pilot study of a patient-centred PEP programme with options for facility- or community-based service delivery.MethodsAfter population-level HIV testing with universal access to PrEP for persons at elevated HIV risk (SEARCH Trial:NCT01864603), we conducted a pilot PEP study in five rural communities in Kenya and Uganda between December 2018 and May 2019. We assessed barriers to PEP in the population and implemented an intervention to address these barriers, building on existing in-country PEP protocols. We used community leaders for sensitization. Test kits and medications were acquired through the Ministry of Health supply chain and healthcare providers based at the Ministry of Health clinics were trained on PEP delivery. Additional intervention components were (a)PEP availability seven days/week, (b)PEP hotline staffed by providers and (c)option for out-of-facility medication delivery. We assessed implementation using the Proctor framework and measured seroconversions via repeat HIV testing. Successful "PEP completion" was defined as self-reported adherence over four weeks of therapy with post-PEP HIV testing.ResultsCommunity leaders were able to sensitize and mobilize for PEP. The Ministry of Health supplied test kits and PEP medications; after training, healthcare providers delivered the 28-day regimen with high completion rates. Among 124 persons who sought PEP, 66% were female, 24% were ≤25 years and 42% were fisherfolk. Of these, 20% reported exposure with a serodifferent partner, 72% with a new or existing relationship and 7% from transactional sex. 12% of all visits were conducted at out-of-facility community-based sites; 35% of participants had ≥1 out-of-facility visit. No serious adverse events were reported. Overall, 85% met the definition of PEP completion. There were no HIV seroconversions.ConclusionsAmong individuals with elevated-risk exposures in rural East African communities, patient-centred PEP was feasible, acceptable and provides a promising addition to the current prevention toolkit.

BackgroundOral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective for HIV prevention, but data are limited on HIV incidence among PrEP users in generalized epidemic settings, particularly outside of selected risk groups. We performed a population-based PrEP study in rural Kenya and Uganda and sought to evaluate both changes in HIV incidence and clinical and virologic outcomes following seroconversion on PrEP.Methods and findingsDuring population-level HIV testing of individuals ≥15 years in 16 communities in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study (NCT01864603), we offered universal access to PrEP with enhanced counseling for persons at elevated HIV risk (based on serodifferent partnership, machine learning-based risk score, or self-identified HIV risk). We offered rapid or same-day PrEP initiation and flexible service delivery with follow-up visits at facilities or community-based sites at 4, 12, and every 12 weeks up to week 144. Among participants with incident HIV infection after PrEP initiation, we offered same-day antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and analyzed HIV RNA, tenofovir hair concentrations, drug resistance, and viral suppression (

Dog training may strengthen the dog-owner bond, a consistent predictor of dog walking behavior. The Stealth Pet Obedience Training (SPOT) study piloted dog training as a stealth physical activity (PA) intervention. In this study, 41 dog owners who reported dog walking ≤3 days/week were randomized to a six-week basic obedience training class or waitlist control. Participants wore accelerometers and logged dog walking at baseline, 6- and 12-weeks. Changes in PA and dog walking were compared between arms with targeted maximum likelihood estimation. At baseline, participants (39 ± 12 years; females = 85%) walked their dog 1.9 days/week and took 5838 steps/day, on average. At week 6, intervention participants walked their dog 0.7 more days/week and took 480 more steps/day, on average, than at baseline, while control participants walked their dog, on average, 0.6 fewer days/week and took 300 fewer steps/day (difference between arms: 1.3 dog walking days/week; 95% CI = 0.2, 2.5; 780 steps/day, 95% CI = -746, 2307). Changes from baseline were similar at week 12 (difference between arms: 1.7 dog walking days/week; 95% CI = 0.6, 2.9; 1084 steps/day, 95% CI = -203, 2370). Given high rates of dog ownership and low rates of dog walking in the United States, this novel PA promotion strategy warrants further investigation.

BackgroundAdditional progress towards HIV epidemic control requires understanding who remains at risk of HIV infection in the context of high uptake of universal testing and treatment (UTT). We sought to characterize seroconverters and risk factors in the SEARCH UTT trial (NCT01864603), which achieved high uptake of universal HIV testing and ART coverage in 32 communities of adults (≥15 years) in rural Uganda and Kenya.MethodsIn a pooled cohort of 117,114 individuals with baseline HIV negative test results, we described those who seroconverted within 3 years, calculated gender-specific HIV incidence rates, evaluated adjusted risk ratios (aRR) for seroconversion using multivariable targeted maximum likelihood estimation, and assessed potential infection sources based on self-report.ResultsOf 704 seroconverters, 63% were women. Young (15-24 years) men comprised a larger proportion of seroconverters in Western Uganda (18%) than Eastern Uganda (6%) or Kenya (10%). After adjustment for other risk factors, men who were mobile [≥1 month of prior year living outside community] (aRR:1.68; 95%CI:1.09,2.60) or who HIV tested at home vs. health fair (aRR:2.44; 95%CI:1.89,3.23) were more likely to seroconvert. Women who were aged ≤24 years (aRR:1.91; 95%CI:1.27,2.90), mobile (aRR:1.49; 95%CI:1.04,2.11), or reported a prior HIV test (aRR:1.34; 95%CI:1.06,1.70), or alcohol use (aRR:2.07; 95%CI:1.34,3.22) were more likely to seroconvert. Among survey responders (N = 607, 86%), suspected infection source was more likely for women than men to be ≥10 years older (28% versus 8%) or a spouse (51% vs. 31%) and less likely to be transactional sex (10% versus 16%).ConclusionIn the context of universal testing and treatment, additional strategies tailored to regional variability are needed to address HIV infection risks of young women, alcohol users, mobile populations, and those engaged in transactional sex to further reduce HIV incidence rates.

BackgroundHIV differentiated service delivery (DSD) models are scaling up in resource-limited settings for stable patients; less is known about DSD outcomes for patients with viremia. We evaluated the effect on viral suppression (VS) of a streamlined care DSD model implemented in the SEARCH randomized universal test and treat trial in rural Uganda and Kenya (NCT:01864603).MethodsWe included HIV-infected adults at baseline (2013) who were country guideline antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligible (prior ART experience or CD4 ≤ 350) with ≥1 HIV clinic visit between 2013 and 2017 in SEARCH communities randomized to intervention (N = 16) or control (N = 16). We assessed the effect of streamlined care in intervention community clinics (patient-centered care, increased appointment spacing, improved clinic access, reminders, and tracking) on VS at 3 years. Analysis was stratified by the baseline care status: ART-experienced with viremia, ART-naïve with CD4 ≤ 350, or ART-experienced with VS.ResultsAmong 6190 ART-eligible persons in care, year 3 VS was 90% in intervention and 87% in control arms (RR 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.06). Among ART-experienced persons with baseline viremia, streamlined care was associated with higher VS (67% vs 47%, RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.91). Among ART-naïve persons, VS was not significantly higher with streamlined care (83% vs 79%, RR 1.05, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.16). Among ART-experienced persons with baseline VS, nearly all remained virally suppressed in both arms (97% vs 95%, RR 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.03).ConclusionsStreamlined care was associated with higher viral suppression among ART-experienced patients with viremia in this randomized evaluation of ART-eligible patients who were in care after universal HIV testing.

BackgroundIn generalized epidemic settings, strategies are needed to prioritize individuals at higher risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition for prevention services. We used population-level HIV testing data from rural Kenya and Uganda to construct HIV risk scores and assessed their ability to identify seroconversions.MethodsDuring 2013-2017, >75% of residents in 16 communities in the SEARCH study were tested annually for HIV. In this population, we evaluated 3 strategies for using demographic factors to predict the 1-year risk of HIV seroconversion: membership in ≥1 known "risk group" (eg, having a spouse living with HIV), a "model-based" risk score constructed with logistic regression, and a "machine learning" risk score constructed with the Super Learner algorithm. We hypothesized machine learning would identify high-risk individuals more efficiently (fewer persons targeted for a fixed sensitivity) and with higher sensitivity (for a fixed number targeted) than either other approach.ResultsA total of 75 558 persons contributed 166 723 person-years of follow-up; 519 seroconverted. Machine learning improved efficiency. To achieve a fixed sensitivity of 50%, the risk-group strategy targeted 42% of the population, the model-based strategy targeted 27%, and machine learning targeted 18%. Machine learning also improved sensitivity. With an upper limit of 45% targeted, the risk-group strategy correctly classified 58% of seroconversions, the model-based strategy 68%, and machine learning 78%.ConclusionsMachine learning improved classification of individuals at risk of HIV acquisition compared with a model-based approach or reliance on known risk groups and could inform targeting of prevention strategies in generalized epidemic settings.Clinical trials registrationNCT01864603.

BackgroundPopulation-level estimates of disease prevalence and control are needed to assess prevention and treatment strategies. However, available data often suffer from differential missingness. For example, population-level HIV viral suppression is the proportion of all HIV-positive persons with suppressed viral replication. Individuals with measured HIV status, and among HIV-positive individuals those with measured viral suppression, likely differ from those without such measurements.MethodsWe discuss three sets of assumptions to identify population-level suppression in the intervention arm of the SEARCH Study (NCT01864603), a community randomized trial in rural Kenya and Uganda (2013-2017). Using data on nearly 100,000 participants, we compare estimates from (1) an unadjusted approach assuming data are missing-completely-at-random (MCAR); (2) stratification on age group, sex, and community; and (3) targeted maximum likelihood estimation to adjust for a larger set of baseline and time-updated variables.ResultsDespite high measurement coverage, estimates of population-level viral suppression varied by identification assumption. Unadjusted estimates were most optimistic: 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 46%, 54%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 80% (95% CI = 78%, 82%) at year 1, 85% (95% CI = 83%, 86%) at year 2, and 85% (95% CI = 83%, 87%) at year 3. Stratifying on baseline predictors yielded slightly lower estimates, and full adjustment reduced estimates meaningfully: 42% (95% CI = 37%, 46%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 71% (95% CI = 69%, 73%) at year 1, 76% (95% CI = 74%, 78%) at year 2, and 79% (95% CI = 77%, 81%) at year 3.ConclusionsEstimation of population-level disease burden and control requires appropriate adjustment for missing data. Even in large studies with limited missingness, estimates relying on the MCAR assumption or baseline stratification should be interpreted cautiously.

Objective(s)We sought to determine whether universal 'test and treat' (UTT) can achieve gains in viral suppression beyond universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) eligibility during pregnancy and postpartum, among women living with HIV.DesignA community cluster randomized trial.MethodsThe SEARCH UTT trial compared an intervention of annual population testing and universal ART with a control of baseline population testing with ART by country standard, including ART eligibility for all pregnant/postpartum women, in 32 communities in Kenya and Uganda. When testing, women were asked about current pregnancy and live births over the prior year and, if HIV-infected, had their viral load measured. Between arms, we compared population-level viral suppression (HIV RNA

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of alcohol use on HIV care cascade outcomes.DesignCross-sectional analyses.MethodsWe evaluated HIV care cascade outcomes and alcohol use in adults (≥15 years) during baseline (2013--2014) population-based HIV testing in 28 Kenyan and Ugandan communities. 'Alcohol use' included any current use and was stratified by Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Concise (AUDIT-C) scores: nonhazardous/low (1--3 men/1--2 women), hazardous/medium (4--5 men/3--5 women), hazardous/high (6--7), hazardous/very-high (8--12). We estimated cascade outcomes and relative risks associated with each drinking level using targeted maximum likelihood estimation, adjusting for confounding and missing measures.ResultsAmong 118 923 adults, 10 268 (9%) tested HIV-positive. Of those, 10 067 (98%) completed alcohol screening: 1626 (16%) reported drinking, representing 7% of women (467/6499) and 33% of men (1 159/3568). Drinking levels were: low (48%), medium (34%), high (11%), very high (7%). Drinkers were less likely to be previously HIV diagnosed (58% [95% CI: 55--61%]) than nondrinkers [66% (95% CI: 65-67%); RR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.83-0.92)]. If previously diagnosed, drinkers were less likely to be on ART [77% (95% CI: 73-80%)] than nondrinkers [83% (95% CI 82-84%); RR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89-0.97)]. If on ART, there was no association between alcohol use and viral suppression; however, very-high-level users were less likely to be suppressed [RR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.68-0.94)] versus nondrinkers. On a population level, viral suppression was 38% (95% CI: 36-41%) among drinkers and 44% (95% CI: 43-45%) among nondrinkers [RR: 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.94)], an association seen at all drinking levels.ConclusionAlcohol use was associated with lower viral suppression; this may be because of decreased HIV diagnosis and ART use.

BackgroundHIV-infected youth in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) than older adults.Setting and methodsAdult (≥15 years) residents enumerated during a census in 32 communities in rural Kenya and Uganda named social contacts in 5 domains: health, money, emotional support, food, and free time. Named contacts were matched to other enumerated residents to build social networks among 150,395 adults; 90% were tested for HIV at baseline. Among youth (15-24 years) who were ART naive at baseline (2013-2014), we evaluated whether having ≥1 network contact who was HIV infected predicted ART initiation within 3 years and modification of this association by age and strength of contact, using logistic regression with robust standard errors.ResultsAmong 1120 HIV-infected youth who were ART naive at baseline, 805 remained alive and community residents after 3 years. Of these, 270 (33.5%) named at least one baseline HIV-infected contact; 70% (569/805) subsequently initiated ART. Youth with ≥1 HIV-infected same-age baseline contact were more likely to initiate ART [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 2.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49 to 5.86] than those with no HIV-infected contact, particularly if the contact was a strong tie (named in >1 domain; aOR, 5.33; 95% CI: 3.34 to 8.52). When nonhousehold contacts were excluded, having an HIV-infected same age contact who was a strong tie remained associated with ART initiation (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI: 1.76 to 4.49).ConclusionsInterventions that increase and strengthen existing social connections to other HIV-infected peers at the time of HIV diagnosis may increase ART initiation among HIV-infected youth.

BackgroundHypertension (HTN) is the single leading risk factor for human mortality worldwide, and more prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa than any other region [1]-although resources for HTN screening, treatment, and control are few. Most regional pilot studies to leverage HIV programs for HTN control have achieved blood pressure control in half of participants or fewer [2,3,4]. But this control gap may be due to inconsistent delivery of services, rather than ineffective underlying interventions.MethodsWe sought to evaluate the consistency of HTN program delivery within the SEARCH study (NCT01864603) among 95,000 adults in 32 rural communities in Uganda and Kenya from 2013-2016. To achieve this objective, we designed and performed a fidelity evaluation of the step-by-step process (cascade) of HTN care within SEARCH, calculating rates of HTN screening, linkage to care, and follow-up care. We evaluated SEARCH's assessment of each participant's HTN status against measured blood pressure and HTN history.FindingsSEARCH completed blood pressure screens on 91% of participants. SEARCH HTN screening was 91% sensitive and over 99% specific for HTN relative to measured blood pressure and patient history. 92% of participants screened HTN+ received clinic appointments, and 42% of persons with HTN linked to subsequent care. At follow-up, 82% of SEARCH clinic participants received blood pressure checks; 75% received medication appropriate for their blood pressure; 66% remained in care; and 46% had normal blood pressure at their most recent visit.ConclusionThe SEARCH study's consistency in delivering screening and treatment services for HTN was generally high, but SEARCH could improve effectiveness in linking patients to care and achieving HTN control. Its model for implementing population-scale HTN testing and care through an existing HIV test-and-treat program-and protocol for evaluating the intervention's stepwise fidelity and care outcomes-may be adapted, strengthened, and scaled up for use across multiple resource-limited settings.

BackgroundThe age-specific epidemiology of child and adolescent tuberculosis (TB) is poorly understood, especially in rural areas of East Africa. We sought to characterize the age-specific prevalence and predictors of TB infection among children and adolescents living in rural Uganda, and to explore the contribution of household TB exposure on TB infection.MethodsFrom 2015-2016 we placed and read 3,121 tuberculin skin tests (TST) in children (5-11 years old) and adolescents (12-19 years old) participating in a nested household survey in 9 rural Eastern Ugandan communities. TB infection was defined as a positive TST (induration ≥10mm or ≥5mm if living with HIV). Age-specific prevalence was estimated using inverse probability weighting to adjust for incomplete measurement. Generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association between TB infection and multi-level predictors.ResultsThe adjusted prevalence of TB infection was 8.5% (95%CI: 6.9-10.4) in children and 16.7% (95% CI:14.0-19.7) in adolescents. Nine percent of children and adolescents with a prevalent TB infection had a household TB contact. Among children, having a household TB contact was strongly associated with TB infection (aOR 5.5, 95% CI: 1.7-16.9), but the strength of this association declined among adolescents and did not meet significance (aOR 2.3, 95% CI: 0.8-7.0). The population attributable faction of TB infection due to a household TB contact was 8% for children and 4% among adolescents. Mobile children and adolescents who travel outside of their community for school had a 1.7 (95% CI 1.0-2.9) fold higher odds of TB infection than those who attended school in the community.ConclusionChildren and adolescents in this area of rural eastern Uganda suffer a significant burden of TB. The majority of TB infections are not explained by a known household TB contact. Our findings underscore the need for community-based TB prevention interventions, especially among mobile youth.

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) may be common among individuals living in sub-Saharan Africa due to the confluence of CKD risk factors and genetic predisposition.MethodsWe ascertained the prevalence of CKD and its risk factors among a sample of 3,686 participants of a population-based HIV trial in rural Uganda and Kenya. Prevalent CKD was defined as a serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate

BackgroundThere is an increasing burden of hypertension (HTN) across sub-Saharan Africa where HIV prevalence is the highest in the world, but current care models are inadequate to address the dual epidemics. HIV treatment infrastructure could be leveraged for the care of other chronic diseases, including HTN. However, little data exist on the effectiveness of integrated HIV and chronic disease care delivery systems on blood pressure control over time.MethodsPopulation screening for HIV and HTN, among other diseases, was conducted in ten communities in rural Uganda as part of the SEARCH study (NCT01864603). Individuals with either HIV, HTN, or both were referred to an integrated chronic disease clinic. Based on Uganda treatment guidelines, follow-up visits were scheduled every 4 weeks when blood pressure was uncontrolled, and either every 3 months, or in the case of drug stock-outs more frequently, when blood pressure was controlled. We describe demographic and clinical variables among all patients and used multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression to evaluate predictors of HTN control.ResultsFollowing population screening (2013-2014) of 34,704 adults age ≥ 18 years, 4554 individuals with HTN alone or both HIV and HTN were referred to an integrated chronic disease clinic. Within 1 year 2038 participants with HTN linked to care and contributed 15,653 follow-up visits over 3 years. HTN was controlled at 15% of baseline visits and at 46% (95% CI: 44-48%) of post-baseline follow-up visits. Scheduled visit interval more frequent than clinical indication among patients with controlled HTN was associated with lower HTN control at the subsequent visit (aOR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.79-0.99). Hypertension control at follow-up visits was higher among HIV-infected patients than uninfected patients to have controlled blood pressure at follow-up visits (48% vs 46%; aOR 1.28; 95% CI 0.95-1.71).ConclusionsImproved HTN control was achieved in an integrated HIV and chronic care model. Similar to HIV care, visit frequency determined by drug supply chain rather than clinical indication is associated with worse HTN control.Trial registrationThe SEARCH Trial was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT01864603.

BackgroundUniversal antiretroviral therapy (ART) with annual population testing and a multidisease, patient-centered strategy could reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and improve community health.MethodsWe randomly assigned 32 rural communities in Uganda and Kenya to baseline HIV and multidisease testing and national guideline-restricted ART (control group) or to baseline testing plus annual testing, eligibility for universal ART, and patient-centered care (intervention group). The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of HIV infection at 3 years. Secondary end points included viral suppression, death, tuberculosis, hypertension control, and the change in the annual incidence of HIV infection (which was evaluated in the intervention group only).ResultsA total of 150,395 persons were included in the analyses. Population-level viral suppression among 15,399 HIV-infected persons was 42% at baseline and was higher in the intervention group than in the control group at 3 years (79% vs. 68%; relative prevalence, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.20). The annual incidence of HIV infection in the intervention group decreased by 32% over 3 years (from 0.43 to 0.31 cases per 100 person-years; relative rate, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.84). However, the 3-year cumulative incidence (704 incident HIV infections) did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (0.77% and 0.81%, respectively; relative risk, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.17). Among HIV-infected persons, the risk of death by year 3 was 3% in the intervention group and 4% in the control group (0.99 vs. 1.29 deaths per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.93). The risk of HIV-associated tuberculosis or death by year 3 among HIV-infected persons was 4% in the intervention group and 5% in the control group (1.19 vs. 1.50 events per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.94). At 3 years, 47% of adults with hypertension in the intervention group and 37% in the control group had hypertension control (relative prevalence, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.39).ConclusionsUniversal HIV treatment did not result in a significantly lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care, probably owing to the availability of comprehensive baseline HIV testing and the rapid expansion of ART eligibility in the control group. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; SEARCH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01864603.).

Dog owners are more physically active than non-dog owners, but evidence of a causal relationship between dog acquisition and increased physical activity is lacking. Such evidence could inform programs and policies that encourage responsible dog ownership. Randomized controlled trials are the 'gold standard' for determining causation, but they are prohibited in this area due to ethical concerns. In the BuddyStudy, we tested the feasibility of using dog fostering as a proxy for dog acquisition, which would allow ethical random assignment. In this single-arm trial, 11 participants fostered a rescue dog for six weeks. Physical activity and psychosocial data were collected at baseline, 6, and 12 weeks. At 6 weeks, mean change in steps/day was 1192.1 ± 2457.8. Mean changes on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale and the Perceived Stress Scale were -4.9 ± 8.7 and -0.8 ± 5.5, respectively. More than half of participants (55%) reported meeting someone new in their neighborhood because of their foster dog. Eight participants (73%) adopted their foster dog after the 6-week foster period; some maintained improvements in physical activity and well-being at 12 weeks. Given the demonstrated feasibility and preliminary findings of the BuddyStudy, a randomized trial of immediate versus delayed dog fostering is warranted.

BackgroundGlobal guidelines recommend preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for individuals with substantial human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk. Data on PrEP uptake in sub-Saharan Africa outside of clinical trials are limited. We report on "early adopters" of PrEP in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study in rural Uganda and Kenya.MethodsAfter community mobilization and PrEP education, population-based HIV testing was conducted. HIV-uninfected adults were offered PrEP based on an empirically derived HIV risk score or self-identified HIV risk (if not identified by score). Using logistic regression, we analyzed predictors of early PrEP adoption (starting PrEP within 30 days vs delayed/no start) among adults identified for PrEP.ResultsOf 21212 HIV-uninfected adults in 5 communities, 4064 were identified for PrEP (2991 by empiric risk score, 1073 by self-identified risk). Seven hundred and thirty nine individuals started PrEP within 30 days (11% of those identified by risk score; 39% of self-identified); 77% on the same day. Among adults identified by risk score, predictors of early adoption included male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.15), polygamy (1.92; 1.27-2.90), serodiscordant spouse (3.89; 1.18-12.76), self-perceived HIV risk (1.66; 1.28-2.14), and testing at health campaign versus home (5.24; 3.33-8.26). Among individuals who self-identified for PrEP, predictors of early adoption included older age (2.30; 1.29-4.08) and serodiscordance (2.61; 1.01-6.76).ConclusionsImplementation of PrEP incorporating a population-based empiric risk score, self-identified risk, and rapid initiation, is feasible in rural East Africa. Strategies are needed to overcome barriers to PrEP uptake, particularly among women and youth.Clinical trials registrationNCT01864603.

In a randomized controlled trial, we tested whether a structured, patient-centered phone call from a clinical officer after HIV testing improved linkage to/re-engagement in HIV care. Among 130 HIV-positive persons, those randomized to the phone call were significantly more likely to link to care by 7 and 30 days (P = .04).

In randomized trials, adjustment for measured covariates during the analysis can reduce variance and increase power. To avoid misleading inference, the analysis plan must be pre-specified. However, it is often unclear a priori which baseline covariates (if any) should be adjusted for in the analysis. Consider, for example, the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) trial for HIV prevention and treatment. There are 16 matched pairs of communities and many potential adjustment variables, including region, HIV prevalence, male circumcision coverage, and measures of community-level viral load. In this paper, we propose a rigorous procedure to data-adaptively select the adjustment set, which maximizes the efficiency of the analysis. Specifically, we use cross-validation to select from a pre-specified library the candidate targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) that minimizes the estimated variance. For further gains in precision, we also propose a collaborative procedure for estimating the known exposure mechanism. Our small sample simulations demonstrate the promise of the methodology to maximize study power, while maintaining nominal confidence interval coverage. We show how our procedure can be tailored to the scientific question (intervention effect for the study sample vs. for the target population) and study design (pair-matched or not). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In cluster randomized trials, the study units usually are not a simple random sample from some clearly defined target population. Instead, the target population tends to be hypothetical or ill-defined, and the selection of study units tends to be systematic, driven by logistical and practical considerations. As a result, the population average treatment effect (PATE) may be neither well defined nor easily interpretable. In contrast, the sample average treatment effect (SATE) is the mean difference in the counterfactual outcomes for the study units. The sample parameter is easily interpretable and arguably the most relevant when the study units are not sampled from some specific super-population of interest. Furthermore, in most settings, the sample parameter will be estimated more efficiently than the population parameter. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to propose using targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimation and inference of the sample effect in trials with and without pair-matching. We study the asymptotic and finite sample properties of the TMLE for the sample effect and provide a conservative variance estimator. Finite sample simulations illustrate the potential gains in precision and power from selecting the sample effect as the target of inference. This work is motivated by the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study, a pair-matched, community randomized trial to estimate the effect of population-based HIV testing and streamlined ART on the 5-year cumulative HIV incidence (NCT01864603). The proposed methodology will be used in the primary analysis for the SEARCH trial. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In randomized trials, pair-matching is an intuitive design strategy to protect study validity and to potentially increase study power. In a common design, candidate units are identified, and their baseline characteristics used to create the best n/2 matched pairs. Within the resulting pairs, the intervention is randomized, and the outcomes measured at the end of follow-up. We consider this design to be adaptive, because the construction of the matched pairs depends on the baseline covariates of all candidate units. As a consequence, the observed data cannot be considered as n/2 independent, identically distributed pairs of units, as common practice assumes. Instead, the observed data consist of n dependent units. This paper explores the consequences of adaptive pair-matching in randomized trials for estimation of the average treatment effect, conditional the baseline covariates of the n study units. By avoiding estimation of the covariate distribution, estimators of this conditional effect will often be more precise than estimators of the marginal effect. We contrast the unadjusted estimator with targeted minimum loss based estimation and show substantial efficiency gains from matching and further gains with adjustment. This work is motivated by the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health study, an ongoing community randomized trial to evaluate the impact of immediate and streamlined antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in rural East Africa.

ObjectiveIn a rural Ugandan community scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART), we sought to determine if population-based HIV RNA levels [population viral load (VL)] decreased from 2011 to 2012.DesignSerial cross-sectional analyses (May 2011 and May 2012) of a defined study community of 6300 persons in a district with HIV prevalence of 8%.MethodsWe measured HIV-1 RNA (VL) levels on all individuals testing positive for HIV during a 5-day high-throughput multidisease community health campaign in May 2012 that recruited two-thirds of the population. We aggregated individual-level VL results into population VL metrics including the proportion of individuals with an undetectable VL and compared these VL metrics to those we previously reported for this geographic region in 2011.ResultsIn 2012, 223 of 2179 adults were HIV-seropositive adults (10%). Overall, among 208 of 223 HIV-seropositive adults in whom VL was tested, 53% had an undetectable VL [95% confidence interval (CI): 46 to 60], up from 37% (95% CI: 30 to 45; P = 0.02) in 2011. Seven (3%) individuals had a VL of >100,000 copies/mL in 2012, down from 21 (13%) in 2011 (P = 0.0007). Mean log (VL) (geometric mean) was 3.18 log (95% CI: 3.06 to 3.29 log) in 2012, down from 3.62 log (95% CI: 3.46 to 3.78 log) in 2011 (P < 0.0001). Similar reductions in population VL were seen among men and women.ConclusionsReductions in population VL metrics and a substantial increase in the proportion of persons with an undetectable VL were observed in a rural Ugandan community from 2011 to 2012. These findings from a resource-limited setting experiencing rapid ART scale-up may reflect a population-level effectiveness of expanding ART access.