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To estimate the association of antiretroviral therapy initiation with incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death while accounting for time-varying confounding in a cost-efficient manner, the authors combined a case-cohort study design with inverse probability-weighted estimation of a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 950 adults who were positive for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 were followed in 2 US cohort studies between 1995 and 2007. In the full cohort, 211 AIDS cases or deaths occurred during 4,456 person-years. In an illustrative 20% random subcohort of 190 participants, 41 AIDS cases or deaths occurred during 861 person-years. Accounting for measured confounders and determinants of dropout by inverse probability weighting, the full cohort hazard ratio was 0.41 (95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.65) and the case-cohort hazard ratio was 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.83). Standard multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were closer to the null, regardless of study design. The precision lost with the case-cohort design was modest given the cost savings. Results from Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that the proposed approach yields approximately unbiased estimates of the hazard ratio with appropriate confidence interval coverage. Marginal structural model analysis of case-cohort study designs provides a cost-efficient design coupled with an accurate analytic method for research settings in which there is time-varying confounding.

IntroductionPeople who inject drugs (PWID) experience high HIV incidence and face significant barriers to engagement in HIV care and substance use treatment. Strategies for HIV treatment as prevention and substance use treatment present unique challenges in PWID that may vary regionally. Understanding differences in the risk structure for HIV transmission and disease progression among PWID is essential in developing and effectively targeting intervention strategies of HIV treatment as prevention.MethodsWe present a baseline analysis of HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 074, a two-arm, randomized controlled trial among PWID in Indonesia (n = 258), Ukraine (n = 457) and Vietnam (n = 439). HPTN 074 was designed to determine the feasibility, barriers and uptake of an integrated intervention combining health systems navigation and psychosocial counselling for the early engagement of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and substance use treatment for PWID living with HIV. Discordant PWID networks were enrolled, consisting of an HIV-positive index and their HIV-negative network injection partner(s). Among the enrolled cohort of 1154 participants (502 index participants and 652 network partners), we examine regional differences in the baseline risk structure, including sociodemographics, HIV and substance use treatment history, and injection and sexual risk behaviours.ResultsThe majority of participants were male (87%), with 82% of the enrolled females coming from Ukraine. The overall mean age was 34 (IQR: 30, 38). Most commonly injected substances included illegally manufactured methadone in Ukraine (84.2%), and heroin in Indonesia (81.8%) and Vietnam (99.5%). Injection network sizes varied by region: median number of people with whom participants self-reported injecting drugs was 3 (IQR: 2, 5) in Indonesia, 5 (IQR: 3, 10) in Ukraine and 3 (IQR: 2, 4) in Vietnam. Hazardous alcohol use, assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Alcohol Consumption Questions (AUDIT-C), was prominent in Ukraine (54.7%) and Vietnam (26.4%). Reported sexual risk behaviours in the past month, including having two or more sex partners and giving/receiving money or drugs in exchange for sex, were uncommon among all participants and regions.ConclusionsWhile regional differences in risk structure exist, PWID particularly in Ukraine need immediate attention for risk reduction strategies. Substantial regional differences in risk structure will require flexible, tailored treatment as prevention interventions for distinct PWID populations.