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Summary Background: Primary prevention of overweight is to be preferred above secondary prevention, which has shown moderate effectiveness. Objective: To develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model to identify young children in the general population, applicable at every age between birth and age 6, at high risk of future overweight (age 8). Methods: Data were used from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy birth cohort, born in 1996 to 1997, in the Netherlands. Participants for whom data on the outcome overweight at age 8 and at least three body mass index SD scores (BMI SDS) at the age of ≥3 months and ≤6 years were available, were included (N = 2265). The outcome of the prediction model is overweight (yes/no) at age 8 (range 7.4‐10.5 years), defined according to the sex‐ and age‐specific BMI cut‐offs of the International Obesity Task Force. Results: After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351. Conclusions: A dynamic prediction model for overweight was developed with a good predictive ability using easily obtainable predictor information. External validation is needed to confirm that the model has potential for use in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the generalizability of a prediction rule for sick leave developed from the Dutch shoulder study (DSS). After studying the calibration and discrimination in the validation cohorts, results showed that the prediction rule for sick leave related to shoulder pain in 6-month period following the first consultation in primary care showed adequate generalizability to another population of workers with shoulder pain participating in an observational cohort study.

Abstract: Shoulder pain is common in primary care and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information about predictors of outcome is scarce and inconsistent. The objective of this study was to develop clinical prediction rules for calculating the absolute risk of persistent shoulder symptoms for individual patients, 6 weeks and 6 month after the first consultation in general practice. A prospective cohort study with 6 months follow-up was carried out in three geographic areas in The Netherlands. In this study, 587 patients with a new episode of shoulder pain were included. The main outcome measure was persistent symptoms at 6 weeks and 6 months, perceived by the patient. Potential predictors included the results of a physical examination, sociodemographic variables, disease characteristics (duration of symptoms, pain intensity, disability and comorbidity), physical activity, physical workload and psychosocial factors. Response rates to the follow-up questionnaires were 83% at 6 weeks and 92% at 6 months. A longer duration of symptoms, gradual onset of pain and high pain severity at presentation were consistently associated with persistent symptoms at 6 weeks and 6 months. The discriminative validity of our prediction rules was satisfactory with area under the curves of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70, 0.79) at 6 weeks and 0.67 (95% CI 0.63, 0.71) at 6 months. The performance of our rules needs to be tested in other populations of patients with shoulder pain to enable valid and reliable use of the rules in everyday clinical practice. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]