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The English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme invites people between the ages of 60 and 74 to take a Faecal Immunochemical Test every two years. This programme was interrupted during the coronavirus pandemic. The research aimed: (1) to estimate the impact of colorectal cancer (CRC) Faecal Immunochemical Test screening pauses of different lengths and the actual coronavirus-related screening pause in England, and (2) to analyse the most effective and cost-effective strategies to re-start CRC screening to prepare for future disruptions. The analysis used the validated Microsimulation Model in Cancer of the Bowel built in the R programming language. The model simulated the life course of a representative English screening population from 2019, by age, sex, socio-economic deprivation, and prior screening history. The modelling scenarios were based on assumptions and data from screening centres in England. Pausing bowel screening in England due to coronavirus pandemic is predicted to increase CRC deaths by 0.73% within 10 years and 0.13% over the population's lifetime, with excess deaths due to peak in 2023. More deaths are expected in men and people aged over 70. Pausing screening for longer would result in greater additional CRC cases and deaths. Postponing screening for everyone would be the most cost-effective strategy to minimise the impact of screening disruption without any additional endoscopy capacity. If endoscopy capacity can be increased, temporarily raising the Faecal Immunochemical Test threshold to 190 μg/g may help to minimise CRC deaths, particularly if screening programmes start from age 50 in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Organised colorectal cancer screening is likely to be cost-effective, but cost-effectiveness results alone may not help policy makers to make decisions about programme feasibility or service providers to plan programme delivery. For these purposes, estimates of the impact on the health services of actually introducing screening in the target population would be helpful. However, these types of analyses are rarely reported. As an illustration of such an approach, we estimated annual health service resource requirements and health outcomes over the first decade of a population-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Ireland. Methods: A Markov state-transition model of colorectal neoplasia natural history was used. Three core screening scenarios were considered: (a) flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) once at age 60, (b) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) at 55-74 years, and (c) biennial faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) at 55-74 years. Three alternative FIT roll-out scenarios were also investigated relating to age-restricted screening (55-64 years) and staggered age-based roll-out across the 55-74 age group. Parameter estimates were derived from literature review, existing screening programmes, and expert opinion. Results were expressed in relation to the 2008 population (4.4 million people, of whom 700,800 were aged 55-74). Results: FIT-based screening would deliver the greatest health benefits, averting 164 colorectal cancer cases and 272 deaths in year 10 of the programme. Capacity would be required for 11,095-14,820 diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies annually, compared to 381-1,053 with FSIG-based, and 967-1,300 with gFOBT-based, screening. With FIT, in year 10, these colonoscopies would result in 62 hospital admissions for abdominal bleeding, 27 bowel perforations and one death. Resource requirements for pathology, diagnostic radiology, radiotherapy and colorectal resection were highest for FIT. Estimates depended on screening uptake. Alternative FIT roll-out scenarios had lower resource requirements. Conclusions: While FIT-based screening would quite quickly generate attractive health outcomes, it has heavy resource requirements. These could impact on the feasibility of a programme based on this screening modality. Staggered age-based roll-out would allow time to increase endoscopy capacity to meet programme requirements. Resource modelling of this type complements conventional cost-effectiveness analyses and can help inform policy making and service planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The University of Sheffield School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Bowel Cancer Screening Model has been used previously to make decisions about colorectal cancer screening strategies in England.Objectives: The objective of this study was to perform an external validation of the ScHARR model against long-term follow-up data about colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality reductions due to screening, from the Nottingham trial of guaiac faecal occult blood testing for CRC, and the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial.Methods: The ScHARR model was adapted prior to validation to reflect the setting of each trial in terms of population characteristics, details of screening and surveillance programs, uptake of screening, and further investigations and study follow-up. The impact of using current versus historical CRC incidence and mortality data in the validation was also examined by carrying out a series of analyses in which historical data from different years was included in the model.Results: The ScHARR model was able to predict CRC incidence and mortality rate/hazard ratios from both trials to well within the 95% confidence intervals in the observed data. While it was less accurate in predicting absolute incidence and mortality rates, modeling historical incidence and mortality data enabled these predictions to be improved considerably.Conclusion: The ScHARR model is able to replicate the long-term relative benefit from screening observed in 2 large-scale UK-based screening trials and can therefore be considered to be an appropriate tool to facilitate decision making around the English bowel cancer screening program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]