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Objective: To cross-validate estimates of the size of the illicit cigarette trade based on the results of four different survey methods., Methods: In 2018/2019, four non-industry-funded, large-scale studies were conducted in selected Brazilian cities: packs discarded in household garbage/PDG (1 city), packs littered in the streets/PLS (5 cities), a phone survey of tobacco users' purchase behaviors/VIGITEL (5 cities), and a face-to-face household survey of tobacco users' purchase behaviors/FTF-household (2 cities). The proportions of illicit cigarettes consumed were based on the price paid by smokers in their last purchase (VIGITEL or FTF-household) and/or direct observation of brand names and health warnings (PDG, PLS or FTF-household)., Results: Based on PLS, the share of packs that avoided taxation ranged from 30.4% (95% CI 25.6% to 35.7%) in Rio de Janeiro to 70.1% (95% CI 64.6% to 75.0%) in Campo Grande; and PDG conducted in Rio de Janeiro found an even lower proportion point estimate of illicit cigarette use (26.8%, 95% CI 25.1% to 28.6%). In FTF-household, the share of illicit cigarette consumption based on the self-reported price ranged from 29.1% (95% CI 22.4% to 35.7%) in Rio de Janeiro to 37.5% (95% CI 31.2% to 43.7%) in São Paulo, while estimates based on pack observation ranged from 29.9% (95% CI 23.3% to 36.5%) in Rio de Janeiro to 40.7% (95% CI 34.3% to 47.0%) in São Paulo. For all cities, VIGITEL presented the lowest levels of illicit consumption, and most illicit brands were produced in Paraguay., Conclusions: Small differences in the estimated levels of illicit trade across methods were found, except for the phone survey. The cross-validation of estimates from independent studies is important to help effectively implement tobacco excise tax policy in Brazil and other low-income and middle-income countries., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Paraguay has reportedly been a major transit hub for illicit tobacco products since the 1960s, initially to supply markets in Argentina and Brazil and, more recently, other regional markets and beyond. However, to date there has been no systematic analysis, notably independent of the tobacco industry, of this trade including the roles of domestic production and transnational tobacco companies (TTCs). This article fills that gap by detailing the history of Paraguay's illicit cigarette trade to Brazil and Argentina of TTC products and Paraguayan production between 1960 and 2003. The effective control of illicit cigarette flows, under Article 15 of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, requires fuller understanding of the changing nature of the illicit trade., Methods: We systematically searched internal industry documents to understand the activities and strategies of leading TTCs in Paraguay and subregion over time. We also mapped illicit trade volume and patterns using US government and UN data on the cigarette trade involving Paraguay. We then estimated Paraguay's cigarette production from 1989 to 2003 using tobacco leaf flows from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)., Results: We identify four phases in the illicit tobacco trade involving Paraguay: 1) Paraguay as a transit hub to smuggle BAT and PMI cigarettes from the U.S. into Argentina and Brazil (from the 1960s to the mid-1970s); 2) BAT and PMI competing in north-east Argentina (1989-1994); 3) BAT and PMI competing in southern and southern-east Brazil (mid to late 1990s); and 4) the growth in the illicit trade of Paraguayan manufactured cigarettes (from the mid- 1990s onwards). These phases suggest the illicit trade was seeded by TTCs, and that the system of supply and demand on lower priced brands they developed in the 1990s created a business opportunity for manufacturing in Paraguay. Brazil's efforts to fight this trade, with a 150% tax on exports to Latin American countries in 1999, further prompted supply of the illicit trade to shift from TTCs to Paraguayan manufacturers., Conclusion: This paper extends evidence of the longstanding complicity of TTCs in the illicit trade to this region and the consequent growth of Paraguayan production in the 1990s. Our findings confirm the need to better understand the factors influencing how the illicit tobacco trade has changed over time, in specific regional contexts, and amid tobacco industry globalization. In Paraguay, the changing roles of TTC and domestic production have been central to shifting patterns of illicit supply and distribution since the 1960s. Important questions are raised, in turn, about TTCs efforts to participate as legitimate partners in global efforts to combat the problem, including a leading role in data gathering and analysis.

Background: Leading transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) began to expand their operations in Latin America in the 1960s. This included legally exporting their cigarettes to Paraguay during the 1960s which, in turn, were illegally re-exported to Argentina and Brazil. By the 1990s, competition between BAT and PMI for this lucrative illicit market, focusing on low-priced brands, prompted manufacturing in Paraguay. Paraguayan manufacturing rapidly grew after the introduction of a new cigarette export tax in Brazil in 1999., Methods: We systematically searched Truth Tobacco Industry Documents (TTID) to understand the activities and strategies of leading TTCs in Paraguay and subregion over time. We applied the analytical framework of Lee and Eckhardt (2017) to understand Tabesa's global business strategy. We searched the websites of TTCs and Tabesa for activities since the mid 2000s to understand how the companies publicly describe these strategies. We used the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) as an independent source to crosscheck statements by Tabesa executives about export markets. We contextualized and triangulated our findings with 42 key informant interviews., Results: Tabesa became the largest cigarette manufacturer in Paraguay, and one of the largest companies in the country, through complicity in the illicit trade. Enabled by market conditions created by leading TTCs, and a permissive regulatory environment in Paraguay, evidence suggests Tabesa had become a major source of illicit cigarettes across Latin America and beyond by the late 2000s. Although Brazil continues to account for the bulk of Tabesa's revenues, findings suggest that the company is aspiring to compete with TTCs in markets worldwide through legal and illegal sales., Conclusion: There is a need for fuller understanding of the risks to global tobacco control from local companies aspiring to compete with TTCs. The rise of Tabesa is part of the changing nature of the illicit trade in tobacco products which must be taken into account in implementing the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and its Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. Potential conflicts of interest concerning Tabesa illustrate the importance of FCTC Article 5.3 on industry interference. There is also an urgent need to address the lack of independent and rigorous data on the illicit tobacco trade in the region.

Objectives: To estimate the proportions of illicit cigarette consumption in Brazil from 2012 to 2016, a period of sharp increases in cigarette taxes., Methods: We used an approach based on legal sales provided by the Secretariat of Federal Revenues and self-reported consumption data from an annually conducted telephone survey (VIGITEL) to estimate the changes over time in illegal cigarette use in Brazil. For that purpose, we also used available information on the proportion of illegal cigarette consumption from a nationwide household survey conducted in 2013 to calculate a constant proportion of underreporting from VIGITEL in relation to total consumption and sales in Brazil., Results: There was an increase in the estimated proportion of illicit cigarette use from 2012 to 2013 (from 28.6% to 32.3%), then a decrease from 2013 to 2014 (32.3% to 28.8%), and then a sustained trend of increase from 2014 to 2016 (28.8% to 42.8%)., Conclusions: Novel and feasible approaches to estimate changes over time in the illegal market are important for helping the effective implementation of tobacco excise tax policy.

Brazil has experienced a large decline in cigarette consumption in the last 25years. However, the most recent annual reports from the tobacco industry market leader in Brazil did not show a decrease in its gross profits. This is particularly important because tobacco industry donations/sponsorships come directly from the industry's reported gross-profits and are used to subvert health policies. The aim of the present study was to estimate (i) tobacco industry's gross-profit from legal cigarettes sales, and (ii) all-cause smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) among current Brazilian smokers who consumed legal cigarettes in 2013. We collected information on prevalence of legal cigarette use, cigarette consumption, price per cigarette pack among individuals aged ≥35years from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, legal cigarettes sales (e.g., average costs and total volume of sales) provided by the Federal Secretariat of Revenues, and population mortality from the available vital statistics. With a gross-profit of US$1.378 billion (1.307-1.434) from sales of 54.6 billion sticks of cigarettes (53.4-55.5) to 8,424,510 smokers aged 35years and older in Brazil in 2013, cumulative SADs were estimated at 96,012 (85,647-107,654) (around 34% of cumulative SADs also including current smoking of illegal cigarettes and past smoking), i.e., one SAD was equivalent to a gross-profit of US$14,352 (12,140-16,743). Our results revealed the association between sales of cigarettes, gross-profits, and deaths in Brazil. As tobacco industry donations/sponsorships originate from industry's gross profits, which, in turn, depend on cigarette sales, our findings may be useful for increasing "moral pressure" on individuals and institutions and help countries in stopping tobacco industry interference in health policies., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The Brazilian cigarette excise tax reform of 2011 increased tax rates significantly in the presence of a high proportion of illegal and cheap cigarettes contributing to total consumption. Prior to 2011, tobacco tax policy in Brazil had reduced excise tax share on consumer prices, for fear of smuggling. This report examines two hypotheses explaining why tax authorities changed direction. The first is related to lack of concern regarding smuggling in tobacco industry pricing behavior before 2011 (rather than reducing prices following tax reduction, legal companies increased net of tax prices above inflation and key costs). The second hypothesis regards inconsistent industry assessments of the size of the illicit market, which ultimately undermined the credibility of the industry with tax authorities. The author concludes that the 2011 reform was designed to revert the weakness of previous policies, and did indeed succeed. The post-2011 experience in Brazil indicates that increased cigarette excise taxes can increase government revenues and reduce smoking prevalence and consumption despite widespread smuggling of tobacco products.

Objective: To identify patterns of cattle movement that could influence disease spread in the Australian cattle population., Methods: Records from the National Livestock Identification System database for the period January 2008 to December 2012 were accessed and analysed. Postcodes were used to allocate each individual property to one of 12 livestock production regions. National movement patterns and the characteristics of each livestock production region were quantified in terms of the number of consignments and animals moved, and seasonality of movements., Results: The majority of cattle movements remained within a single livestock production region, while those that did not, usually remained within the same state or territory. Producers were the most common source of cattle, and abattoirs and other producers the most common destinations, with approximately 40% of animals moving via a saleyard. The northern regions generally moved larger consignments than the southern regions and were less connected to other regions. The eastern and south-eastern regions were very well connected by cattle movements. Seasonal patterns were seen for some regions, particularly the northern regions where weather patterns strongly influence the ability of producers to muster and transport stock., Conclusions: The movement patterns observed provide quantitative support for previous information based on surveys and expert opinion, and capture more of the variability in Australian cattle production. This information may assist with management of animal disease risks, in particular exotic diseases, and in planning surveillance programs., (© 2015 2015 Commonwealth of Australia Australian Veterinary Journal © 2015 Australian Veterinary Association.)