Search

Biophysical models offer valuable insights into climate-phenology relationships in both natural and agricultural settings. However, there are substantial structural discrepancies across models which require site-specific recalibration, often yielding inconsistent predictions under similar climate scenarios. Machine learning methods offer data-driven solutions, but often lack interpretability and alignment with existing knowledge. We present a phenology model describing dormancy in fruit trees, integrating conventional biophysical models with a neural network to address their structural disparities. We evaluate our hybrid model in an extensive case study predicting cherry tree phenology in Japan, South Korea and Switzerland. Our approach consistently outperforms both traditional biophysical and machine learning models in predicting blooming dates across years. Additionally, the neural network's adaptability facilitates parameter learning for specific tree varieties, enabling robust generalization to new sites without site-specific recalibration. This hybrid model leverages both biophysical constraints and data-driven flexibility, offering a promising avenue for accurate and interpretable phenology modeling.

Farmers rely on in-field observations to make well-informed crop management decisions to maximize profit and minimize adverse environmental impact. However, obtaining real-world crop state measurements is labor-intensive, time-consuming and expensive. In most cases, it is not feasible to gather crop state measurements before every decision moment. Moreover, in previous research pertaining to farm management optimization, these observations are often assumed to be readily available without any cost, which is unrealistic. Hence, enabling optimization without the need to have temporally complete crop state observations is important. An approach to that problem is to include measuring as part of decision making. As a solution, we apply reinforcement learning (RL) to recommend opportune moments to simultaneously measure crop features and apply nitrogen fertilizer. With realistic considerations, we design an RL environment with explicit crop feature measuring costs. While balancing costs, we find that an RL agent, trained with recurrent PPO, discovers adaptive measuring policies that follow critical crop development stages, with results aligned by what domain experts would consider a sensible approach. Our results highlight the importance of measuring when crop feature measurements are not readily available., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, accepted after peer-review at the 39th Annual AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AI for Social Impact Track, February 2025, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Plant morphological traits, their observable characteristics, are fundamental to understand the role played by each species within their ecosystem. However, compiling trait information for even a moderate number of species is a demanding task that may take experts years to accomplish. At the same time, massive amounts of information about species descriptions is available online in the form of text, although the lack of structure makes this source of data impossible to use at scale. To overcome this, we propose to leverage recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and devise a mechanism for gathering and processing information on plant traits in the form of unstructured textual descriptions, without manual curation. We evaluate our approach by automatically replicating three manually created species-trait matrices. Our method managed to find values for over half of all species-trait pairs, with an F1-score of over 75%. Our results suggest that large-scale creation of structured trait databases from unstructured online text is currently feasible thanks to the information extraction capabilities of LLMs, being limited by the availability of textual descriptions covering all the traits of interest.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for unsupervised learning and data generation. A plethora of methods have been proposed focusing on improving VAEs, with the incorporation of adversarial objectives and the integration of prior learning mechanisms being prominent directions. When it comes to the former, an indicative instance is the recently introduced family of Introspective VAEs aiming at ensuring that a low likelihood is assigned to unrealistic samples. In this study, we focus on the Soft-IntroVAE (S-IntroVAE) and investigate the implication of incorporating a multimodal and learnable prior into this framework. Namely, we formulate the prior as a third player and show that when trained in cooperation with the decoder constitutes an effective way for prior learning, which shares the Nash Equilibrium with the vanilla S-IntroVAE. Furthermore, based on a modified formulation of the optimal ELBO in S-IntroVAE, we develop theoretically motivated regularizations, that is (i) adaptive variance clipping to stabilize training when learning the prior and (ii) responsibility regularization to discourage the formation of inactive prior mode. Finally, we perform a series of targeted experiments on a 2D density estimation benchmark and in an image generation setting comprised of the (F)-MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets demonstrating the benefit of prior learning in S-IntroVAE in generation and representation learning.

In a changing climate, sustainable agriculture is essential for food security and environmental health. However, it is challenging to understand the complex interactions among its biophysical, social, and economic components. Predictive machine learning (ML), with its capacity to learn from data, is leveraged in sustainable agriculture for applications like yield prediction and weather forecasting. Nevertheless, it cannot explain causal mechanisms and remains descriptive rather than prescriptive. To address this gap, we propose causal ML, which merges ML's data processing with causality's ability to reason about change. This facilitates quantifying intervention impacts for evidence-based decision-making and enhances predictive model robustness. We showcase causal ML through eight diverse applications that benefit stakeholders across the agri-food chain, including farmers, policymakers, and researchers.

Crop breeding is crucial in improving agricultural productivity while potentially decreasing land usage, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption. However, breeding programs are challenging due to long turnover times, high-dimensional decision spaces, long-term objectives, and the need to adapt to rapid climate change. This paper introduces the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to optimize simulated crop breeding programs. RL agents are trained to make optimal crop selection and cross-breeding decisions based on genetic information. To benchmark RL-based breeding algorithms, we introduce a suite of Gym environments. The study demonstrates the superiority of RL techniques over standard practices in terms of genetic gain when simulated in silico using real-world genomic maize data., Comment: NeurIPS 2023 Workshop on Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

Pesticides serve as a common tool in agricultural pest control but significantly contribute to the climate crisis. To combat this, Integrated Pest Management (IPM) stands as a climate-smart alternative. Despite its potential, IPM faces low adoption rates due to farmers' skepticism about its effectiveness. To address this challenge, we introduce an advanced data analysis framework tailored to enhance IPM adoption. Our framework provides i) robust pest population predictions across diverse environments with invariant and causal learning, ii) interpretable pest presence predictions using transparent models, iii) actionable advice through counterfactual explanations for in-season IPM interventions, iv) field-specific treatment effect estimations, and v) assessments of the effectiveness of our advice using causal inference. By incorporating these features, our framework aims to alleviate skepticism and encourage wider adoption of IPM practices among farmers., Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS 2023 Workshop on Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: Blending New and Existing Knowledge Systems

Crop yield prediction typically involves the utilization of either theory-driven process-based crop growth models, which have proven to be difficult to calibrate for local conditions, or data-driven machine learning methods, which are known to require large datasets. In this work we investigate potato yield prediction using a hybrid meta-modeling approach. A crop growth model is employed to generate synthetic data for (pre)training a convolutional neural net, which is then fine-tuned with observational data. When applied in silico, our meta-modeling approach yields better predictions than a baseline comprising a purely data-driven approach. When tested on real-world data from field trials (n=303) and commercial fields (n=77), the meta-modeling approach yields competitive results with respect to the crop growth model. In the latter set, however, both models perform worse than a simple linear regression with a hand-picked feature set and dedicated preprocessing designed by domain experts. Our findings indicate the potential of meta-modeling for accurate crop yield prediction; however, further advancements and validation using extensive real-world datasets is recommended to solidify its practical effectiveness., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, Accepted after peer-review at the 1st workshop on Synergy of Scientific and Machine Learning Modeling, SynS & ML ICML, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. July, 2023

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of smart farming tools. While AI-driven digital agriculture tools can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, they lack tangible quantitative evidence on their benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly, time consuming and hence limited in scope and scale of application. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators (e.g., yield in this case). This way, we can increase farmers' trust via enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market and accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to secure farmer income resilience and global agricultural sustainability. As a case study, we designed and implemented a recommendation system for the optimal sowing time of cotton based on numerical weather predictions, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We then leverage agricultural knowledge, collected yield data, and environmental information to develop a causal graph of the farm system. Using the back-door criterion, we identify the impact of sowing recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using linear regression, matching, inverse propensity score weighting and meta-learners. The results reveal that a field sown according to our recommendations exhibited a statistically significant yield increase that ranged from 12% to 17%, depending on the method. The effect estimates were robust, as indicated by the agreement among the estimation methods and four successful refutation tests. We argue that this approach can be implemented for decision support systems of other fields, extending their evaluation beyond a performance assessment of internal functionalities., Comment: Accepted at AAAI'23, AI for Social Impact Track. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2211.03195

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of climate-smart farming tools. Even though AI-driven digital agriculture can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, it lacks tangible quantitative evidence on its benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly and time consuming. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators. This way, we can increase farmers' trust by enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market, and in turn accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to increase productivity and secure a sustainable and resilient agriculture against a changing climate. As a case study, we perform an empirical evaluation of a recommendation system for optimal cotton sowing, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We leverage agricultural knowledge to develop a causal graph of the farm system, we use the back-door criterion to identify the impact of recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using several methods on observational data. The results show that a field sown according to our recommendations enjoyed a significant increase in yield (12% to 17%)., Comment: Accepted for publication and spotlight presentation at Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: workshop at NeurIPS 2022

Learning latent representations has aided operational decision-making in several disciplines. Its advantages include uncovering hidden interactions in data and automating procedures which were performed manually in the past. Representation learning is also being adopted by earth and environmental sciences. However, there are still subfields that depend on manual feature engineering based on expert knowledge and the use of algorithms which do not utilize the latent space. Relying on those techniques can inhibit operational decision-making since they impose data constraints and inhibit automation. In this work, we adopt a case study for nitrogen response rate prediction and examine if representation learning can be used for operational use. We compare a Multilayer Perceptron, an Autoencoder, and a dual-head Autoencoder with a reference Random Forest model for nitrogen response rate prediction. To bring the predictions closer to an operational setting we assume absence of future weather data, and we are evaluating the models using error metrics and a domain-derived error threshold. The results show that learning latent representations can provide operational nitrogen response rate predictions by offering performance equal and sometimes better than the reference model., Comment: Appeared at the AI for Earth Sciences workshop at @ICLR2022, April 29, 2022. https://ai4earthscience.github.io/iclr-2022-workshop/

Predictor inputs and label data for crop yield forecasting are not always available at the same spatial resolution. We propose a deep learning framework that uses high resolution inputs and low resolution labels to produce crop yield forecasts for both spatial levels. The forecasting model is calibrated by weak supervision from low resolution crop area and yield statistics. We evaluated the framework by disaggregating regional yields in Europe from parent statistical regions to sub-regions for five countries (Germany, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy) and two crops (soft wheat and potatoes). Performance of weakly supervised models was compared with linear trend models and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT). Higher resolution crop yield forecasts are useful to policymakers and other stakeholders. Weakly supervised deep learning methods provide a way to produce such forecasts even in the absence of high resolution yield data., Comment: Appeared at the AI for Earth Sciences workshop at @ICLR2022, April 29, 2022. https://ai4earthscience.github.io/iclr-2022-workshop/

Feature matching is a challenging computer vision task that involves finding correspondences between two images of a 3D scene. In this paper we consider the dense approach instead of the more common sparse paradigm, thus striving to find all correspondences. Perhaps counter-intuitively, dense methods have previously shown inferior performance to their sparse and semi-sparse counterparts for estimation of two-view geometry. This changes with our novel dense method, which outperforms both dense and sparse methods on geometry estimation. The novelty is threefold: First, we propose a kernel regression global matcher. Secondly, we propose warp refinement through stacked feature maps and depthwise convolution kernels. Thirdly, we propose learning dense confidence through consistent depth and a balanced sampling approach for dense confidence maps. Through extensive experiments we confirm that our proposed dense method, \textbf{D}ense \textbf{K}ernelized Feature \textbf{M}atching, sets a new state-of-the-art on multiple geometry estimation benchmarks. In particular, we achieve an improvement on MegaDepth-1500 of +4.9 and +8.9 AUC$@5^{\circ}$ compared to the best previous sparse method and dense method respectively. Our code is provided at https://github.com/Parskatt/dkm

Nitrogen fertilizers have a detrimental effect on the environment, which can be reduced by optimizing fertilizer management strategies. We implement an OpenAI Gym environment where a reinforcement learning agent can learn fertilization management policies using process-based crop growth models and identify policies with reduced environmental impact. In our environment, an agent trained with the Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm is more successful at reducing environmental impacts than the other baseline agents we present.