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The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in critical applications. Conformal prediction is emerging as a theoretically sound and practically useful framework, combining flexibility with strong statistical guarantees. Its model-agnostic and distribution-free nature makes it particularly promising to address the current shortcomings of NLP systems that stem from the absence of uncertainty quantification. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of conformal prediction techniques, their guarantees, and existing applications in NLP, pointing to directions for future research and open challenges.

Learning to defer (L2D) aims to improve human-AI collaboration systems by learning how to defer decisions to humans when they are more likely to be correct than an ML classifier. Existing research in L2D overlooks key real-world aspects that impede its practical adoption, namely: i) neglecting cost-sensitive scenarios, where type I and type II errors have different costs; ii) requiring concurrent human predictions for every instance of the training dataset; and iii) not dealing with human work-capacity constraints. To address these issues, we propose the \textit{deferral under cost and capacity constraints framework} (DeCCaF). DeCCaF is a novel L2D approach, employing supervised learning to model the probability of human error under less restrictive data requirements (only one expert prediction per instance) and using constraint programming to globally minimize the error cost, subject to workload limitations. We test DeCCaF in a series of cost-sensitive fraud detection scenarios with different teams of 9 synthetic fraud analysts, with individual work-capacity constraints. The results demonstrate that our approach performs significantly better than the baselines in a wide array of scenarios, achieving an average $8.4\%$ reduction in the misclassification cost. The code used for the experiments is available at https://github.com/feedzai/deccaf

Model interpretability plays a central role in human-AI decision-making systems. Ideally, explanations should be expressed using human-interpretable semantic concepts. Moreover, the causal relations between these concepts should be captured by the explainer to allow for reasoning about the explanations. Lastly, explanation methods should be efficient and not compromise the performance of the predictive task. Despite the rapid advances in AI explainability in recent years, as far as we know to date, no method fulfills these three properties. Indeed, mainstream methods for local concept explainability do not produce causal explanations and incur a trade-off between explainability and prediction performance. We present DiConStruct, an explanation method that is both concept-based and causal, with the goal of creating more interpretable local explanations in the form of structural causal models and concept attributions. Our explainer works as a distillation model to any black-box machine learning model by approximating its predictions while producing the respective explanations. Because of this, DiConStruct generates explanations efficiently while not impacting the black-box prediction task. We validate our method on an image dataset and a tabular dataset, showing that DiConStruct approximates the black-box models with higher fidelity than other concept explainability baselines, while providing explanations that include the causal relations between the concepts., Comment: Accepted at Conference on Causal Learning and Reasoning (CLeaR 2024, https://www.cclear.cc/2024). To be published at Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PMLR)

Public dataset limitations have significantly hindered the development and benchmarking of learning to defer (L2D) algorithms, which aim to optimally combine human and AI capabilities in hybrid decision-making systems. In such systems, human availability and domain-specific concerns introduce difficulties, while obtaining human predictions for training and evaluation is costly. Financial fraud detection is a high-stakes setting where algorithms and human experts often work in tandem; however, there are no publicly available datasets for L2D concerning this important application of human-AI teaming. To fill this gap in L2D research, we introduce the Financial Fraud Alert Review Dataset (FiFAR), a synthetic bank account fraud detection dataset, containing the predictions of a team of 50 highly complex and varied synthetic fraud analysts, with varied bias and feature dependence. We also provide a realistic definition of human work capacity constraints, an aspect of L2D systems that is often overlooked, allowing for extensive testing of assignment systems under real-world conditions. We use our dataset to develop a capacity-aware L2D method and rejection learning approach under realistic data availability conditions, and benchmark these baselines under an array of 300 distinct testing scenarios. We believe that this dataset will serve as a pivotal instrument in facilitating a systematic, rigorous, reproducible, and transparent evaluation and comparison of L2D methods, thereby fostering the development of more synergistic human-AI collaboration in decision-making systems. The public dataset and detailed synthetic expert information are available at: https://github.com/feedzai/fifar-dataset, Comment: The public dataset and detailed synthetic expert information are available at: https://github.com/feedzai/fifar-dataset

Data valuation is a ML field that studies the value of training instances towards a given predictive task. Although data bias is one of the main sources of downstream model unfairness, previous work in data valuation does not consider how training instances may influence both performance and fairness of ML models. Thus, we propose Fairness-Aware Data vauatiOn (FADO), a data valuation framework that can be used to incorporate fairness concerns into a series of ML-related tasks (e.g., data pre-processing, exploratory data analysis, active learning). We propose an entropy-based data valuation metric suited to address our two-pronged goal of maximizing both performance and fairness, which is more computationally efficient than existing metrics. We then show how FADO can be applied as the basis for unfairness mitigation pre-processing techniques. Our methods achieve promising results -- up to a 40 p.p. improvement in fairness at a less than 1 p.p. loss in performance compared to a baseline -- and promote fairness in a data-centric way, where a deeper understanding of data quality takes center stage., Comment: ICLR 2023 Workshop Trustworthy ML

Distinguishing cause from effect using observations of a pair of random variables is a core problem in causal discovery. Most approaches proposed for this task, namely additive noise models (ANM), are only adequate for quantitative data. We propose a criterion to address the cause-effect problem with categorical variables (living in sets with no meaningful order), inspired by seeing a conditional probability mass function (pmf) as a discrete memoryless channel. We select as the most likely causal direction the one in which the conditional pmf is closer to a uniform channel (UC). The rationale is that, in a UC, as in an ANM, the conditional entropy (of the effect given the cause) is independent of the cause distribution, in agreement with the principle of independence of cause and mechanism. Our approach, which we call the uniform channel model (UCM), thus extends the ANM rationale to categorical variables. To assess how close a conditional pmf (estimated from data) is to a UC, we use statistical testing, supported by a closed-form estimate of a UC channel. On the theoretical front, we prove identifiability of the UCM and show its equivalence with a structural causal model with a low-cardinality exogenous variable. Finally, the proposed method compares favorably with recent state-of-the-art alternatives in experiments on synthetic, benchmark, and real data., Comment: 20 pages, 2 appendices

ProBoost, a new boosting algorithm for probabilistic classifiers, is proposed in this work. This algorithm uses the epistemic uncertainty of each training sample to determine the most challenging/uncertain ones; the relevance of these samples is then increased for the next weak learner, producing a sequence that progressively focuses on the samples found to have the highest uncertainty. In the end, the weak learners' outputs are combined into a weighted ensemble of classifiers. Three methods are proposed to manipulate the training set: undersampling, oversampling, and weighting the training samples according to the uncertainty estimated by the weak learners. Furthermore, two approaches are studied regarding the ensemble combination. The weak learner herein considered is a standard convolutional neural network, and the probabilistic models underlying the uncertainty estimation use either variational inference or Monte Carlo dropout. The experimental evaluation carried out on MNIST benchmark datasets shows that ProBoost yields a significant performance improvement. The results are further highlighted by assessing the relative achievable improvement, a metric proposed in this work, which shows that a model with only four weak learners leads to an improvement exceeding 12% in this metric (for either accuracy, sensitivity, or specificity), in comparison to the model learned without ProBoost., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, supplementary material

In recent years, machine learning algorithms have become ubiquitous in a multitude of high-stakes decision-making applications. The unparalleled ability of machine learning algorithms to learn patterns from data also enables them to incorporate biases embedded within. A biased model can then make decisions that disproportionately harm certain groups in society -- limiting their access to financial services, for example. The awareness of this problem has given rise to the field of Fair ML, which focuses on studying, measuring, and mitigating unfairness in algorithmic prediction, with respect to a set of protected groups (e.g., race or gender). However, the underlying causes for algorithmic unfairness still remain elusive, with researchers divided between blaming either the ML algorithms or the data they are trained on. In this work, we maintain that algorithmic unfairness stems from interactions between models and biases in the data, rather than from isolated contributions of either of them. To this end, we propose a taxonomy to characterize data bias and we study a set of hypotheses regarding the fairness-accuracy trade-offs that fairness-blind ML algorithms exhibit under different data bias settings. On our real-world account-opening fraud use case, we find that each setting entails specific trade-offs, affecting fairness in expected value and variance -- the latter often going unnoticed. Moreover, we show how algorithms compare differently in terms of accuracy and fairness, depending on the biases affecting the data. Finally, we note that under specific data bias conditions, simple pre-processing interventions can successfully balance group-wise error rates, while the same techniques fail in more complex settings., Comment: KDD'22 Workshop on Machine Learning in Finance

Human-AI collaboration (HAIC) in decision-making aims to create synergistic teaming between human decision-makers and AI systems. Learning to defer (L2D) has been presented as a promising framework to determine who among humans and AI should make which decisions in order to optimize the performance and fairness of the combined system. Nevertheless, L2D entails several often unfeasible requirements, such as the availability of predictions from humans for every instance or ground-truth labels that are independent from said humans. Furthermore, neither L2D nor alternative approaches tackle fundamental issues of deploying HAIC systems in real-world settings, such as capacity management or dealing with dynamic environments. In this paper, we aim to identify and review these and other limitations, pointing to where opportunities for future research in HAIC may lie., Comment: ICML 2022 Workshop on Human-Machine Collaboration and Teaming

The unparalleled ability of machine learning algorithms to learn patterns from data also enables them to incorporate biases embedded within. A biased model can then make decisions that disproportionately harm certain groups in society. Much work has been devoted to measuring unfairness in static ML environments, but not in dynamic, performative prediction ones, in which most real-world use cases operate. In the latter, the predictive model itself plays a pivotal role in shaping the distribution of the data. However, little attention has been heeded to relating unfairness to these interactions. Thus, to further the understanding of unfairness in these settings, we propose a taxonomy to characterize bias in the data, and study cases where it is shaped by model behaviour. Using a real-world account opening fraud detection case study as an example, we study the dangers to both performance and fairness of two typical biases in performative prediction: distribution shifts, and the problem of selective labels., Comment: ICML 2022 Workshop on Responsible Decision Making in Dynamic Environments

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, \textit{i.e.}, interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

Exponential families are widely used in machine learning, including many distributions in continuous and discrete domains (e.g., Gaussian, Dirichlet, Poisson, and categorical distributions via the softmax transformation). Distributions in each of these families have fixed support. In contrast, for finite domains, recent work on sparse alternatives to softmax (e.g., sparsemax, $\alpha$-entmax, and fusedmax), has led to distributions with varying support. This paper develops sparse alternatives to continuous distributions, based on several technical contributions: First, we define $\Omega$-regularized prediction maps and Fenchel-Young losses for arbitrary domains (possibly countably infinite or continuous). For linearly parametrized families, we show that minimization of Fenchel-Young losses is equivalent to moment matching of the statistics, generalizing a fundamental property of exponential families. When $\Omega$ is a Tsallis negentropy with parameter $\alpha$, we obtain ``deformed exponential families,'' which include $\alpha$-entmax and sparsemax ($\alpha=2$) as particular cases. For quadratic energy functions, the resulting densities are $\beta$-Gaussians, an instance of elliptical distributions that contain as particular cases the Gaussian, biweight, triweight, and Epanechnikov densities, and for which we derive closed-form expressions for the variance, Tsallis entropy, and Fenchel-Young loss. When $\Omega$ is a total variation or Sobolev regularizer, we obtain a continuous version of the fusedmax. Finally, we introduce continuous-domain attention mechanisms, deriving efficient gradient backpropagation algorithms for $\alpha \in \{1, 4/3, 3/2, 2\}$. Using these algorithms, we demonstrate our sparse continuous distributions for attention-based audio classification and visual question answering, showing that they allow attending to time intervals and compact regions., Comment: JMLR 2022 camera ready version. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2006.07214

Although recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are state-of-the-art in numerous sequential decision-making tasks, there has been little research on explaining their predictions. In this work, we present TimeSHAP, a model-agnostic recurrent explainer that builds upon KernelSHAP and extends it to the sequential domain. TimeSHAP computes feature-, timestep-, and cell-level attributions. As sequences may be arbitrarily long, we further propose a pruning method that is shown to dramatically decrease both its computational cost and the variance of its attributions. We use TimeSHAP to explain the predictions of a real-world bank account takeover fraud detection RNN model, and draw key insights from its explanations: i) the model identifies important features and events aligned with what fraud analysts consider cues for account takeover; ii) positive predicted sequences can be pruned to only 10% of the original length, as older events have residual attribution values; iii) the most recent input event of positive predictions only contributes on average to 41% of the model's score; iv) notably high attribution to client's age, suggesting a potential discriminatory reasoning, later confirmed as higher false positive rates for older clients., Comment: Accepted at KDD 2021

This paper evaluates adaptive Q-learning (AQL) and single-partition adaptive Q-learning (SPAQL), two algorithms for efficient model-free episodic reinforcement learning (RL), in two classical control problems (Pendulum and Cartpole). AQL adaptively partitions the state-action space of a Markov decision process (MDP), while learning the control policy, i. e., the mapping from states to actions. The main difference between AQL and SPAQL is that the latter learns time-invariant policies, where the mapping from states to actions does not depend explicitly on the time step. This paper also proposes the SPAQL with terminal state (SPAQL-TS), an improved version of SPAQL tailored for the design of regulators for control problems. The time-invariant policies are shown to result in a better performance than the time-variant ones in both problems studied. These algorithms are particularly fitted to RL problems where the action space is finite, as is the case with the Cartpole problem. SPAQL-TS solves the OpenAI Gym Cartpole problem, while also displaying a higher sample efficiency than trust region policy optimization (TRPO), a standard RL algorithm for solving control tasks. Moreover, the policies learned by SPAQL are interpretable, while TRPO policies are typically encoded as neural networks, and therefore hard to interpret. Yielding interpretable policies while being sample-efficient are the major advantages of SPAQL., Comment: 29 pages, 13 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2007.06741

In the past few years, deep generative models, such as generative adversarial networks \autocite{GAN}, variational autoencoders \autocite{vaepaper}, and their variants, have seen wide adoption for the task of modelling complex data distributions. In spite of the outstanding sample quality achieved by those early methods, they model the target distributions \emph{implicitly}, in the sense that the probability density functions induced by them are not explicitly accessible. This fact renders those methods unfit for tasks that require, for example, scoring new instances of data with the learned distributions. Normalizing flows have overcome this limitation by leveraging the change-of-variables formula for probability density functions, and by using transformations designed to have tractable and cheaply computable Jacobians. Although flexible, this framework lacked (until recently \autocites{semisuplearning_nflows, RAD}) a way to introduce discrete structure (such as the one found in mixtures) in the models it allows to construct, in an unsupervised scenario. The present work overcomes this by using normalizing flows as components in a mixture model and devising an end-to-end training procedure for such a model. This procedure is based on variational inference, and uses a variational posterior parameterized by a neural network. As will become clear, this model naturally lends itself to (multimodal) density estimation, semi-supervised learning, and clustering. The proposed model is illustrated on two synthetic datasets, as well as on a real-world dataset. Keywords: Deep generative models, normalizing flows, variational inference, probabilistic modelling, mixture models.

This paper introduces single-partition adaptive Q-learning (SPAQL), an algorithm for model-free episodic reinforcement learning (RL), which adaptively partitions the state-action space of a Markov decision process (MDP), while simultaneously learning a time-invariant policy (i. e., the mapping from states to actions does not depend explicitly on the episode time step) for maximizing the cumulative reward. The trade-off between exploration and exploitation is handled by using a mixture of upper confidence bounds (UCB) and Boltzmann exploration during training, with a temperature parameter that is automatically tuned as training progresses. The algorithm is an improvement over adaptive Q-learning (AQL). It converges faster to the optimal solution, while also using fewer arms. Tests on episodes with a large number of time steps show that SPAQL has no problems scaling, unlike AQL. Based on this empirical evidence, we claim that SPAQL may have a higher sample efficiency than AQL, thus being a relevant contribution to the field of efficient model-free RL methods., Comment: 34 pages, 15 figures

Artificial neural networks, one of the most successful approaches to supervised learning, were originally inspired by their biological counterparts. However, the most successful learning algorithm for artificial neural networks, backpropagation, is considered biologically implausible. We contribute to the topic of biologically plausible neuronal learning by building upon and extending the equilibrium propagation learning framework. Specifically, we introduce: a new neuronal dynamics and learning rule for arbitrary network architectures; a sparsity-inducing method able to prune irrelevant connections; a dynamical-systems characterization of the models, using Lyapunov theory., Comment: 6 pages, 6 images, accepted for ESANN 2020

Exponential families are widely used in machine learning; they include many distributions in continuous and discrete domains (e.g., Gaussian, Dirichlet, Poisson, and categorical distributions via the softmax transformation). Distributions in each of these families have fixed support. In contrast, for finite domains, there has been recent work on sparse alternatives to softmax (e.g. sparsemax and alpha-entmax), which have varying support, being able to assign zero probability to irrelevant categories. This paper expands that work in two directions: first, we extend alpha-entmax to continuous domains, revealing a link with Tsallis statistics and deformed exponential families. Second, we introduce continuous-domain attention mechanisms, deriving efficient gradient backpropagation algorithms for alpha in {1,2}. Experiments on attention-based text classification, machine translation, and visual question answering illustrate the use of continuous attention in 1D and 2D, showing that it allows attending to time intervals and compact regions., Comment: Accepted for spotlight presentation at NeurIPS 2020

In this paper, we introduce a neural network framework for semi-supervised clustering (SSC) with pairwise (must-link or cannot-link) constraints. In contrast to existing approaches, we decompose SSC into two simpler classification tasks/stages: the first stage uses a pair of Siamese neural networks to label the unlabeled pairs of points as must-link or cannot-link; the second stage uses the fully pairwise-labeled dataset produced by the first stage in a supervised neural-network-based clustering method. The proposed approach, S3C2 (Semi-Supervised Siamese Classifiers for Clustering), is motivated by the observation that binary classification (such as assigning pairwise relations) is usually easier than multi-class clustering with partial supervision. On the other hand, being classification-based, our method solves only well-defined classification problems, rather than less well specified clustering tasks. Extensive experiments on various datasets demonstrate the high performance of the proposed method.