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Conformal prediction aims to determine precise levels of confidence in predictions for new objects using past experience. However, the commonly used exchangeable assumptions between the training data and testing data limit its usage in dealing with contaminated testing sets. In this paper, we develop a novel flow-based conformal inference (FCI) method to build predictive sets and infer outliers for complex and high-dimensional data. We leverage ideas from adversarial flow to transfer the input data to a random vector with known distributions. Our roundtrip transformation can map the input data to a low-dimensional space, meanwhile reserving the conditional distribution of input data given each class label, which enables us to construct a non-conformity score for uncertainty quantification. Our approach is applicable and robust when the testing data is contaminated. We evaluate our method, robust flow-based conformal inference, on benchmark datasets. We find that it produces effective predictive sets and accurate outlier detection and is more powerful relative to competing approaches.

Embedding is a useful technique to project a high-dimensional feature into a low-dimensional space, and it has many successful applications including link prediction, node classification and natural language processing. Current approaches mainly focus on static data, which usually lead to unsatisfactory performance in applications involving large changes over time. How to dynamically characterize the variation of the embedded features is still largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic variational embedding (DVE) approach for sequence-aware data based on recent advances in recurrent neural networks. DVE can model the node's intrinsic nature and temporal variation explicitly and simultaneously, which are crucial for exploration. We further apply DVE to sequence-aware recommender systems, and develop an end-to-end neural architecture for link prediction.

Recent years have witnessed rapid developments on collaborative filtering techniques for improving the performance of recommender systems due to the growing need of companies to help users discover new and relevant items. However, the majority of existing literature focuses on delivering items which match the user model learned from users' past preferences. A good recommendation model is expected to recommend items that are known to enjoy and items that are novel to try. In this work, we introduce an exploitation-exploration motivated variational auto-encoder (XploVAE) to collaborative filtering. To facilitate personalized recommendations, we construct user-specific subgraphs, which contain the first-order proximity capturing observed user-item interactions for exploitation and the high-order proximity for exploration. A hierarchical latent space model is utilized to learn the personalized item embedding for a given user, along with the population distribution of all user subgraphs. Finally, experimental results on various real-world datasets clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model on leveraging the exploitation and exploration recommendation tasks., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures

When there is a distributional shift between data used to train a predictive algorithm and current data, performance can suffer. This is known as the domain adaptation problem. Bootstrap aggregating, or bagging, is a popular method for improving stability of predictive algorithms, while reducing variance and protecting against over-fitting. This article proposes a domain adaptive bagging method coupled with a new iterative nearest neighbor sampler. The key idea is to draw bootstrap samples from the training data in such a manner that their distribution equals that of new testing data. The proposed approach provides a general ensemble framework that can be applied to arbitrary classifiers. We further modify the method to allow anomalous samples in the test data corresponding to outliers in the training data. Theoretical support is provided, and the approach is compared to alternatives in simulations and real data applications.

There has been huge interest in studying human brain connectomes inferred from different imaging modalities and exploring their relationship with human traits, such as cognition. Brain connectomes are usually represented as networks, with nodes corresponding to different regions of interest (ROIs) and edges to connection strengths between ROIs. Due to the high-dimensionality and non-Euclidean nature of networks, it is challenging to depict their population distribution and relate them to human traits. Current approaches focus on summarizing the network using either pre-specified topological features or principal components analysis (PCA). In this paper, building on recent advances in deep learning, we develop a nonlinear latent factor model to characterize the population distribution of brain graphs and infer the relationships between brain structural connectomes and human traits. We refer to our method as Graph AuTo-Encoding (GATE). We applied GATE to two large-scale brain imaging datasets, the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study and the Human Connectome Project (HCP) for adults, to understand the structural brain connectome and its relationship with cognition. Numerical results demonstrate huge advantages of GATE over competitors in terms of prediction accuracy, statistical inference and computing efficiency. We found that structural connectomes have a stronger association with a wide range of human cognitive traits than was apparent using previous approaches., Comment: 31 pages, 12 figures, 5 tables

In this paper, we propose a random projection approach to estimate variance in kernel ridge regression. Our approach leads to a consistent estimator of the true variance, while being computationally more efficient. Our variance estimator is optimal for a large family of kernels, including cubic splines and Gaussian kernels. Simulation analysis is conducted to support our theory., Comment: To Appear in 2018 Allerton