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Detecting the atmospheric drivers of the Benguela Upwelling Systems is essential to understand its present variability and its past and future changes. We present a statistical analysis of an ocean-only simulation driven by observed atmospheric fields over the last decades with the aim of identifying the large-scale atmospheric drivers of upwelling variability and trends. The simulation is found to reproduce well the seasonal cycle of upwelling intensity, with a maximum in the June-to-August season in North Benguela and in the December-to-February season in South Benguela. The statistical analysis of the interannual variability of upwelling focuses on its relationship to atmospheric variables (sea level pressure, 10m-wind, wind stress). The relationship between upwelling and the atmospheric variables differ somewhat in the two regions, but generally, the correlation patterns reflect the common atmospheric pattern favoring upwelling: southerly wind/wind stress, strong subtropical anticyclone, and an oceanland sea level pressure gradient. In addition, the statistical link between upwelling and large-scale climate variability modes was analyzed. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Antarctic Oscillation exert some influence on austral summer upwelling velocities in South Benguela. The decadal evolution and the long-term trends of upwelling and of ocean-minus-land air pressure gradient do not agree with Bakun's hypothesis that anthropogenic climate change should generally intensify coastal upwelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel approach to model food-web dynamics, based on a combination of chance (randomness) and necessity (system constraints), was presented by Mullon et al. in 2009. Based on simulations for the Benguela ecosystem, they concluded that observed patterns of ecosystem variability may simply result from basic structural constraints within which the ecosystem functions. To date, and despite the importance of these conclusions, this work has received little attention. The objective of the present paper is to replicate this original model and evaluate the conclusions that were derived from its simulations. For this purpose, we revisit the equations and input parameters that form the structure of the original model and implement a comparable simulation model. We restate the model principles and provide a detailed account of the model structure, equations, and parameters. Our model can reproduce several ecosystem dynamic patterns: pseudo-cycles, variation and volatility, diet, stock-recruitment relationships, and correlations between species biomass series. The original conclusions are supported to a large extent by the current replication of the model. Model parameterisation and computational aspects remain difficult and these need to be investigated further. Hopefully, the present contribution will make this approach available to a larger research community and will promote the use of non-deterministic-network-dynamics models as ‘null models of food-webs’ as originally advocated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Niñño events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Niñño have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Niñños with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Niñños are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Niñños, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific--South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Niñños, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]