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Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change. Nor will climate change mitigation be sufficient on its own. Committed warming and projected reef decline means solutions must involve a portfolio of mitigation, best-practice conventional management and coordinated restoration and adaptation measures involving new and perhaps radical interventions, including local and regional cooling and shading, assisted coral evolution, assisted gene flow, and measures to support and enhance coral recruitment. We propose that proactive research and development to expand the reef management toolbox fast but safely, combined with expedient trialling of promising interventions is now urgently needed, whatever emissions trajectory the world follows. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of embracing new interventions in a race against time, including their risks and uncertainties. Ultimately, solutions to the climate challenge for coral reefs will require consideration of what society wants, what can be achieved technically and economically, and what opportunities we have for action in a rapidly closing window. Finding solutions that work for coral reefs and people will require exceptional levels of coordination of science, management and policy, and open engagement with society. It will also require compromise, because reefs will change under climate change despite our best interventions. We argue that being clear about society's priorities, and understanding both the opportunities and risks that come with an expanded toolset, can help us make the most of a challenging situation. We offer a conceptual model to help reef managers frame decision problems and objectives, and to guide effective strategy choices in the face of complexity and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown‐of‐thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run‐off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017–2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near‐term, relative to current state, followed by climate‐driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business‐as‐usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate‐driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR‐wide reef performance will decline 27%–74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem’s systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these ‘robust source reefs’, which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the threats posed to coral reefs by climate change and carbon emissions. The author explains that ocean warming can lead to coral bleaching and high levels of coral death. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide can also lead to ocean acidification, which will inhibit coral growth and weakened reefs. The author explains the role of meteorological and ocean services in reef management, which are related to ocean forecasting.

The onset of large-scale coral bleaching events is routinely estimated on the basis of the duration and intensity of thermal anomalies determined as degree heating weeks. Degree heating weeks, however, do not account for differential rates of heating. This study aimed to explore the relationship between different rates of heating above the documented regional winter threshold, and resultant bleaching of the reef-building coral Acropora formosa. Under a relatively low light field, rapid heating of 1°C day-1 from 29°C to 32°C lead to a 17.6% decline in Fv/Fm, concurrent with a rapid increase in xanthophyll de-epoxidation sustained into the dark, whereas slower heating rates of 0.5°C day-1 lead to no decline in Fv/Fm and no change in dark-adapted xanthophyll cycling. At the winter bleaching threshold of 30°C, areal net O2 evolution exceeded the control values for rapidly heated corals, but was lower than the controls for slowly heated corals. At the maximum temperature of 33°C, however, both treatments had net O2 fluxes that were 50% of control values. At 30°C, only symbiont densities in the slowly heated controls were reduced relative to controls values. By 33°C, however, symbiont densities were 55% less than the controls in both treatments. The rate of heat accumulation was found to be an important variable, with rapidly heated corals attaining the same bleaching status and loss of areal O2 production for half the degree heating week exposure as slowly heated corals. The study revealed that it is incorrect to assume that significant dark acclimation disables non-photochemical quenching, because 75% of an increased xanthophyll pool was found to be in the de-epoxidated state following rapid heat accumulation. This has important ramifications for the interpretation of chlorophyll fluorescence data such as dark adapted Fv/Fm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Coral bleaching events, predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change, are a threat to tropical coral-reef ecosystems worldwide. Although the onset of spatially extensive, or ‘mass’, bleaching events can be predicted using simple temperature stress metrics, no models are available for predicting coral mortality risk or sub-lethal stress associated with bleaching. Here, we develop a model that links the functional response of colony energy balance and energy-store dynamics to coral mortality risk and recovery during and following bleaching events. 2. In a series of simulations using response functions and parameter values derived from experimental studies for two Indo-Pacific coral species ( Acropora intermedia and Montipora monasteriata), we demonstrate that prior energy-costly disturbances and alternative energy sources are both important determinants of coral mortality risk during and following bleaching. 3. The timing of the onset of coral mass mortality is determined by a combination of bleaching severity (loss rate of photopigments), duration of the bleaching event, heterotrophy and the size of energy reserves (as lipid stores) before bleaching occurs. 4. Depending on initial energy reserves, model results showed that high rates of heterotrophy could delay the onset of coral mortality by up to three weeks. Survival following bleaching was also strongly influenced by remaining lipid reserves, rates of heterotrophy, and rates of photopigment (or symbiont) recovery. 5. Our results indicate that energy-costly disturbances and low availability of food, before and during bleaching events, respectively, work to increase bleaching-induced coral mortality risk for acroporid corals on Indo-Pacific reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]