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Aim: Predictions for the future of coral reefs are largely based on thermal exposure and poorly account for potential geographic variation in biological sensitivity to thermal stress. Without accounting for complex sensitivity responses, simple climate exposure models and associated predictions may lead to poor estimates of future coral survival and lead to policies that fail to identify and implement the most appropriate interventions. To begin filling this gap, we evaluated a number of attributes of coral taxa and communities that are predicted to influence coral resistance to thermal stress over a large geographic range. Location: Western Indo‐Pacific and Central Indo‐Pacific Ocean Realms. Major taxa studied: Zooxanthellate Scleractinia – hard corals. Methods: We evaluated the geographic variability of coral resistance to thermal stress as the ratio of thermal exposure and sensitivity in 12 countries during the 2016 global‐bleaching event. Thermal exposure was estimated by two metrics: (a) historical excess summer heat (cumulative thermal anomaly, CTA), and (b) a multivariate index of sea‐surface temperature (SST), light, and water flow (climate exposure, CE). Sensitivity was estimated for 226 sites using coordinated bleaching observations and underwater surveys of coral communities. We then evaluated coral resistance to thermal stress using 48 generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to compare the potential influences of geography, historical SST variation, coral cover and coral richness. Results: Geographic faunal provinces and ecoregions were the strongest predictors of coral resistance to thermal stress, with sites in the Australian, Indonesian and Fiji‐Caroline Islands coral provinces having higher resistance to thermal stress than Africa‐India and Japan‐Vietnam provinces. Ecoregions also showed strong gradients in resistance with highest resistance to thermal stress in the western Pacific and Coral Triangle and lower resistance in the surrounding ecoregions. A more detailed evaluation of Coral Triangle and non‐Coral Triangle sites found higher resistance to thermal stress within the Coral Triangle, associated with c. 2.5 times more recent historical thermal anomalies and more centralized, warmer, and cool‐water skew SST distributions, than in non‐Coral Triangle sites. Our findings identify the importance of environmental history and geographic context in future predictions of bleaching, and identify some potential drivers of coral resistance to thermal stress. Main conclusions: Simple threshold models of heat stress and coral acclimation are commonly used to predict the future of coral reefs. Here and elsewhere we show that large‐scale responses of coral communities to heat stress are geographically variable and associated with differential environmental stresses and histories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: To describe, model and assess the relative importance of environmental and climatic factors likely influencing the regional distribution of coral cover and assemblages with contrasting life histories and susceptibilities to bleaching. Location: We compiled the first comprehensive empirical dataset for coral communities in the south‐eastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), incorporating information from 392 sites along the western coast of Australia and offshore atolls/islands across ~19° of latitude. Methods: We assessed hard coral cover and community composition to genus using point‐intercept transects or point‐count analysis of digital images taken along transects. We explored spatial variation in environmental conditions and in composition of corals with contrasting life histories. After de‐trending the temporal patterns, we assessed the relative importance of environmental metrics to coral cover, life histories and bleaching susceptibility using a full subsets model‐selection approach with generalized additive mixed models, accounting for both temporal and among site variation. Results: The distribution of temperature , light, the frequency of temperature anomalies and tropical cyclones appear to be drivers of coral community structure. Functional diversity of low‐ to mid‐latitude coral communities may convey some resilience to thermal stress, while higher latitude communities dominated by Competitive and Bleaching‐Susceptible taxa may lack this functional resilience. These patterns likely reflect varying historical exposure to cyclones and temperature anomalies. Main conclusions: As evident in recent years, changing background conditions and regimes of disturbance in coming decades will shift the distribution, functional diversity and resilience of coral reefs throughout the SEIO. The rate and magnitude of environmental change will ultimately determine the future of the tropical reefs and whether the higher latitude reefs provide some refuge from climate change. Our study highlights the need to quantify the distributional properties of key environmental metrics to better understand and predict reef condition through coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching is the detrimental expulsion of algal symbionts from their cnidarian hosts, and predominantly occurs when corals are exposed to thermal stress. The incidence and severity of bleaching is often spatially heterogeneous within reef-scales (<1 km), and is therefore not predictable using conventional remote sensing products. Here, we systematically assess the relationship between in situ measurements of 20 environmental variables, along with seven remotely sensed SST thermal stress metrics, and 81 observed bleaching events at coral reef locations spanning five major reef regions globally. We find that high-frequency temperature variability (i.e., daily temperature range) was the most influential factor in predicting bleaching prevalence and had a mitigating effect, such that a 1 °C increase in daily temperature range would reduce the odds of more severe bleaching by a factor of 33. Our findings suggest that reefs with greater high-frequency temperature variability may represent particularly important opportunities to conserve coral ecosystems against the major threat posed by warming ocean temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic environmental variables derived from satellites are increasingly being used to predict ecosystem states and climate impacts. Despite the concerted efforts to develop metrics and the urgency to inform policy, management plans, and actions, few metrics have been empirically tested with field data for testing their predictive ability, refinement, and eventual implementation as predictive tools. In this study, the abilities of three variations of a thermal threshold index and a multivariate stress model (MSM) were used to predict coral cover and community susceptibility to bleaching based on a compilation of field data from Indian Ocean reefs across the strong thermal anomaly of 1998. Field data included the relative abundance of coral taxa 10 years before the large-scale temperature anomaly, 2 years after (1999-2000), and during the post-bleaching recovery period (2001-2005) were tested against 1) a multivariate model based on 11 environmental variables used to predict stress or environmental exposure (MSM), 2) estimates of the time until the current mean maximum temperature becomes the mean summer condition (TtT), 3) the Cumulative Thermal Stress (CTS) for the full satellite record, and 4) the 1998 Annual Thermal Stress (1998 ATS). The MSM showed significant fit with the post-1998 cover and susceptibility of the coral community taxa (r = 0.50 and 0.31, respectively). Temperature threshold indices were highly variable and had relatively weak or no significant relationships with coral cover and susceptibility. The ecosystem response of coral reefs to climatic and other disturbances is more complex than predicted by models based largely on temperature anomalies and thresholds only. This implies heterogeneous environmental causes and responses to climate disturbances and warming and predictive models should consider a more comprehensive multiple parameter approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A challenge for conservation science is predicting the impacts of co-occurring human activities on ecological systems. Multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors impact ecosystems globally and are expected to jeopardize their ecological functions and the success of conservation and management initiatives. The possibility that two or more stressors interact synergistically is of particular concern, but such nonadditive effects remain largely unidentified in nature. A long-term data set of hard coral cover from Kenyan reefs was used to examine the independent and interactive effects of two stressors: fishing and a temperature anomaly in 1998 that caused mass coral bleaching and mortality. While both stressors decreased coral cover, fishing by 51% and bleaching by 74%, they did not interact synergistically. Instead, their combined effect was antagonistic or weakly additive. The observed nonsynergistic response may be caused by the presence of one dominant stressor, bleaching, and cotolerance of coral taxa to both bleaching and fishing stressors. Consequently, coral bleaching has been the dominant driver of coral loss on Kenyan reefs and while marine reserves offer many benefits to reef ecosystems, they may not provide corals with a refuge from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high-latitude coral communities of southern Africa suffered minimal impacts during past mass bleaching events. Recent reports indicate an increase in bleaching frequency during the last decade, yet the actual levels of thermal stress and contributing factors in these bleaching events, and the degree of acclimatisation or adaptation on these reefs are poorly understood. During the 2005 warm-water anomaly in the southern Indian Ocean we conducted bleaching surveys and collected samples for genotyping of the algal symbiont communities at 21 sites in southern Mozambique and South Africa. Coral bleaching reached unprecedented levels and was negatively correlated with both latitude and water depths. Stylophora pistillata and Montipora were the most susceptible taxa, whereas three common branching corals had significantly different bleaching responses ( Stylophora > Acropora > Pocillopora). Temperature records indicated that localised strong upwelling events coupled with persistent above-average seawater temperatures may result in accumulated thermal stress leading to bleaching. Symbiodinium in 139 scleractinian corals belonged almost exclusively to clade C, with clade D symbionts present in only 3% of the colonies. Two atypical C subclades were present in Stylophora and Pocillopora colonies and these were more abundant in shallow than deeper sites. Taxon-specific differences in bleaching responses were unrelated to different clades of algal symbionts and suggest that Symbiodinium C subtypes with diverse thermal tolerance, coupled with acclimatisation and morphology of the host colony influence the bleaching response. Additionally, the predominance of putatively thermal-sensitive Symbiodinium in southern African corals may reflect a limited experience of bleaching and emphasises the vulnerability of these reefs to moderate levels of thermal stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]