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Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ 15 N macroalgal tissue), NO 3 stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs.- stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Nutrient sources to coastal waters with coral reefs are not well-characterized. This study documented spatial distributions of nutrients within coastal waters along two developments with coral reefs, and identified nutrient sources through nutrient mixing plots, δ 15 N measurements in macroalgal tissue, and NO 3 - stable isotope mixing models. Nutrients decreased from fresh groundwaters to offshore waters, with some surface waters higher in concentrations than benthic ones. Conservative and non-conservative mixing between fresh and ocean waters occurred, the latter suggestive of local nutrient sources and biological removal. δ 15 N in macroalgal tissue and NO 3 - concentrations illustrated that submarine groundwater discharge delivered nutrients to reefs in pulses ranging from minutes to days. Information generated from this study is imperative for developing management actions to improve water quality and make coral reefs more resilient to stressors.3 - + NO 2 - concentrations illustrated that submarine groundwater discharge delivered nutrients to reefs in pulses ranging from minutes to days. Information generated from this study is imperative for developing management actions to improve water quality and make coral reefs more resilient to stressors., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Sewage pollution is contributing to the global decline of coral reefs. Identifying locations where it is entering waters near reefs is therefore a management priority. Our study documented shoreline sewage pollution hotspots in a coastal community with a fringing coral reef (Puakō, Hawai'i) using dye tracer studies, sewage indicator measurements, and a pollution scoring tool. Sewage reached shoreline waters within 9 h to 3 d. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were high and variable, and δ 15 N macroalgal values were indicative of sewage at many stations. Shoreline nutrient concentrations were two times higher than those in upland groundwater. Pollution hotspots were identified with a scoring tool using three sewage indicators. It confirmed known locations of sewage pollution from dye tracer studies. Our study highlights the need for a multi-indicator approach and scoring tool to identify sewage pollution hotspots. This approach will be useful for other coastal communities grappling with sewage pollution., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Plastic waste can promote microbial colonization by pathogens implicated in outbreaks of disease in the ocean. We assessed the influence of plastic waste on disease risk in 124,000 reef-building corals from 159 reefs in the Asia-Pacific region. The likelihood of disease increases from 4% to 89% when corals are in contact with plastic. Structurally complex corals are eight times more likely to be affected by plastic, suggesting that microhabitats for reef-associated organisms and valuable fisheries will be disproportionately affected. Plastic levels on coral reefs correspond to estimates of terrestrial mismanaged plastic waste entering the ocean. We estimate that 11.1 billion plastic items are entangled on coral reefs across the Asia-Pacific and project this number to increase 40% by 2025. Plastic waste management is critical for reducing diseases that threaten ecosystem health and human livelihoods., (Copyright © 2018, The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

2014 marked the sixth and most widespread mass bleaching event reported in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, home to the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), the world’s second largest marine reserve. This event was associated with an unusual basin-scale warming in the North Pacific Ocean, with an unprecedented peak intensity of around 20°C-weeks of cumulative heat stress at Lisianksi Island. In situ bleaching surveys and satellite data were used to evaluate the relative importance of potential drivers of bleaching patterns in 2014, assess the subsequent morality and its effects on coral communities and 3D complexity, test for signs of regional acclimation, and investigate long-term change in heat stress in PMNM. Surveys conducted at four island/atoll (French Frigate Shoals, Lisianski Island, Pearl and Hermes Atoll, and Midway Atoll) showed that in 2014, percent bleaching varied considerably between islands/atolls and habitats (back reef/fore reef and depth), and was up to 91% in shallow habitats at Lisianski. The percent bleaching during the 2014 event was best explained by a combination of duration of heat stress measured by Coral Reef Watch’s satellite Degree Heating Week, relative community susceptibility (bleaching susceptibility score of each taxon * the taxon’s abundance relative to the total number of colonies), depth and region. Mean coral cover at permanent Lisianski monitoring sites decreased by 68% due to severe losses of Montipora dilatata complex, resulting in rapid reductions in habitat complexity. Spatial distribution of the 2014 bleaching was significantly different from the 2002 and 2004 bleaching events likely due to a combination of differences in heat stress and local acclimatization. Historical satellite data demonstrated heat stress in 2014 was unlike any previous event and that the exposure of corals to the bleaching-level heat stress has increased significantly in the northern PMNM since 1982, highlighting the increasing threat of climate change to reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]