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Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near‐real‐time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi‐Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid‐ to high‐disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co‐developed with end‐user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near‐real‐time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real‐world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near‐term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Habitat complexity plays an important role in the structure and function of ecosystems worldwide. On coral reefs, habitat complexity influences ecosystem services such as harvestable fish biomass and attenuation of wave energy. Here, we test how three descriptors of surface complexity—rugosity, fractal dimension, and height range—trend with the geological age of reefs (0.2–5.1 million years old), depth (1–25 m), wave exposure (1–306 kW/m), coral cover (0–80%), and three habitat types (aggregated reef, rock and boulder, and pavement). Location: We surveyed across 234 sites and 4 degrees of latitude in the eight main Hawaiian Islands. Time Period: April 2019 – July 2019. Major Taxa Studied: Reef building corals. Methods: We estimate three surface descriptors (rugosity, fractal dimension and height range) using structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry. We evaluate hypothesized relationships between these descriptors and geological reef age, depth, wave exposure, coral cover and reef habitat type using generalized linear models that account for survey design. Results: The rugosity of reef habitats decreased with geological reef age; fractal dimension (and coral cover) decreased with wave exposure; and height range decreased with depth. Variations in these patterns were explained by the different habitat types and the way they are formed over time. Nonetheless, the three surface descriptors were geometrically constrained across all habitat types, and so habitats occupied distinctly different regions of habitat complexity space. Main Conclusions: This study showed how broad environmental characteristics influence the structural complexity of habitats, and therefore geodiversity, which is an important first step toward understanding the communities supported by these habitats and their ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event caused widespread coral mortality; however, its impact on the capacity for coral reefs to maintain calcium carbonate structures has not been determined. Here, we quantified remotely sensed maximum heat stress during the 2014–2017 bleaching event, census‐based net carbonate budgets from benthic imagery and fish survey data, and net reef calcification from salinity normalized seawater total alkalinity anomalies collected from 2017–2019 for 56 Pacific coral reef sites (Mariana Islands, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, Pacific Remote Island Areas, and American Samoa). We incorporated the census‐based and chemistry‐based metrics to determine a calcification vulnerability index for each site to maintain calcium carbonate balance to provide accessible information to managers and policy makers. Most coral reef sites likely experienced ecologically severe (79%, n = 44) or significant (9%, n = 7) heat stress during the 2014–2017 coral bleaching event. Census‐based net carbonate budgets (mean ± 95% = 2.1 ± 0.6 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) were positive for 77% of sites (n = 43), neutral for 16% of sites (n = 9), and negative for 7% of sites (n = 4). Chemistry‐based relative net reef calcification (mean ± 95% = 22 ± 10 μmol kg−1) was positive for 84% of sites (n = 47), neutral for 11% of sites (n = 6), and negative for 5% of sites (n = 3). The calcification vulnerability index suggested the Pacific Ocean reef sites surveyed were of minimal (68%, n = 38) to moderate (32%, n = 18) concern for maintaining calcium carbonate balance following the bleaching event. This suggests that many reefs maintained positive calcium carbonate balance, but that a large number of reefs may be approaching a potential threshold for maintaining their calcium carbonate balance under the climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sewage pollution is contributing to the global decline of coral reefs. Identifying locations where it is entering waters near reefs is therefore a management priority. Our study documented shoreline sewage pollution hotspots in a coastal community with a fringing coral reef (Puakō, Hawai'i) using dye tracer studies, sewage indicator measurements, and a pollution scoring tool. Sewage reached shoreline waters within 9 h to 3 d. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were high and variable, and δ 15 N macroalgal values were indicative of sewage at many stations. Shoreline nutrient concentrations were two times higher than those in upland groundwater. Pollution hotspots were identified with a scoring tool using three sewage indicators. It confirmed known locations of sewage pollution from dye tracer studies. Our study highlights the need for a multi-indicator approach and scoring tool to identify sewage pollution hotspots. This approach will be useful for other coastal communities grappling with sewage pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ15N macroalgal tissue), NO 3 − stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs. • Water quality, currents, and benthic surveys assessed coral reef sewage pollution. • Sewage pollution was moderate on the coral reefs from benthic seeps. • Water motion mixed and diluted sewage across the coral reefs. • Sewage presence was associated with coral growth anomalies and algal overgrowth. • Multiple tools identified environmental drivers associated with coral reef impairment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrient sources to coastal waters with coral reefs are not well-characterized. This study documented spatial distributions of nutrients within coastal waters along two developments with coral reefs, and identified nutrient sources through nutrient mixing plots, δ15N measurements in macroalgal tissue, and NO 3 − stable isotope mixing models. Nutrients decreased from fresh groundwaters to offshore waters, with some surface waters higher in concentrations than benthic ones. Conservative and non-conservative mixing between fresh and ocean waters occurred, the latter suggestive of local nutrient sources and biological removal. δ15N in macroalgal tissue and NO 3 − concurred that fresh groundwater, ocean water, and fertilizers were dominant nutrient sources. Benthic salinity and NO 3 − + NO 2 − concentrations illustrated that submarine groundwater discharge delivered nutrients to reefs in pulses ranging from minutes to days. Information generated from this study is imperative for developing management actions to improve water quality and make coral reefs more resilient to stressors. • Mixing plots, isotopes, and sensors assessed nutrient patterns on resorts' coral reefs. • Nutrients decreased from fresh groundwaters to offshore waters in resorts' watersheds. • Nutrients mixed conservatively and non-conservatively between fresh and ocean waters. • Groundwater, ocean, and fertilizer were dominate nutrient sources to coral reefs. • Submarine groundwater discharge delivered nutrients to reefs in pulses of min to days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]