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Coral bleaching, a consequence of stressed symbiotic relationships between corals and algae, has escalated due to intensified heat stress events driven by climate change. Despite global efforts, current early warning systems lack local precision. Our study, spanning 2015–2017 in the Mesoamerican Reef, revealed prevalent intermediate bleaching, peaking in 2017. By scrutinizing 23 stress exposure and sensitivity metrics, we accurately predicted 75% of bleaching severity variation. Notably, distinct thermal patterns—particularly the climatological seasonal warming rate and various heat stress metrics—emerged as better predictors compared to conventional indices (such as Degree Heating Weeks). Surprisingly, deeper reefs with diverse coral communities showed heightened vulnerability. This study presents a framework for coral reef bleaching vulnerability assessment, leveraging accessible data (including historical and real-time sea surface temperature, habitat variables, and species composition). Its operational potential lies in seamless integration with existing monitoring systems, offering crucial insights for conservation and management. A study on the Mesoamerican Reef shows that the climatological rate of seasonal warming and heat stress metrics more accurately predict coral bleaching severity than conventional indices, enhancing regional early warning systems for better conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near‐real‐time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi‐Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid‐ to high‐disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co‐developed with end‐user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near‐real‐time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real‐world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near‐term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching has impacted reefs worldwide and the predictions of near‐annual bleaching from over two decades ago have now been realized. While technology currently provides the means to predict large‐scale bleaching, predicting reef‐scale and within‐reef patterns in real‐time for all reef users is limited. In 2020, heat stress across the Great Barrier Reef underpinned the region's third bleaching event in 5 years. Here we review the heterogeneous emergence of bleaching across Heron Island reef habitats and discuss the oceanographic drivers that underpinned variable bleaching emergence. We do so as a case study to highlight how reef end‐user groups who engage with coral reefs in different ways require targeted guidance for how, and when, to alter their use of coral reefs in response to bleaching events. Our case study of coral bleaching emergence demonstrates how within‐reef scale nowcasting of coral bleaching could aid the development of accessible and equitable bleaching response strategies on coral reefs. Also see the video abstract here: https://youtu.be/N9Tgb8N-vN0 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

2014–2017 was an unprecedented period of successive record-breaking hot years, which coincided with the most severe, widespread, and longest-lasting global-scale coral bleaching event ever recorded. The 2014–2017 global-scale coral bleaching event (GCBE) resulted in very high coral mortality on many reefs, rapid deterioration of reef structures, and far-reaching environmental impacts. Through the papers in this special issue of Coral Reefs entitled The 2014–2017 Global Coral Bleaching Event: Drivers, Impacts, and Lessons Learned, as well as papers published elsewhere, we have a good analysis of the 2014–2017 GCBE and its impacts. These studies have provided key insights into how climate change-driven marine heatwaves are destroying coral reef ecosystems: (a) The 2014–2017 GCBE is unique in the satellite record in its spatial scale, duration, intensity, and repetition of bleaching. (b) The impacts have been the most severe ever seen at many reefs. (c) Timing of observations matters and needs to be considered during the analysis of impacts. (d) On both global and local scales, the intensity of heat stress and impacts varied. (e) We continue to see important differences among and within coral taxa, with key roles played by algal symbionts and the microbiome. (f) Heat stress and bleaching both play a role in subsequent disease, which plays a key role in mortality. (g) Impacts ripple far beyond corals, with significant changes to the fish and invertebrate community that may last decades. (h) The structure of both individual coral's skeletons and entire reefs has been eroded much more quickly than previously realized. (i) The 2014–2017 GCBE provided little support for the proposed "lifeboat" hypothesis, whereby deep or mesophotic reefs serve as a means of coral reef salvation. (j) While marine protected areas (MPAs) provide protection from local stressors, they not only do not protect reefs from global-scale stressors, but also here is also little evidence they provide significant resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature ( SST) output from the NOAA/ GFDL Earth System Model 2 ( ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientific literature for guidance on the multiple physical and biological factors that affect the ability of coral reefs to resist and recover from climate disturbance. Eleven key factors to inform decisions based on scaling scientific evidence and the achievability of quantifying the factors were identified. Factors important to resistance and recovery, which are important components of resilience, were not strongly related, and should be assessed independently. The abundance of resistant (heat- tolerant) coral species and past temperature variability were perceived to provide the greatest resistance to climate change, while coral recruitment rates, and macroalgae abundance were most influential in the recovery process. Based on the 11 key factors, we tested an evidence-based framework for climate change resilience in an Indonesian marine protected area. The results suggest our evidence-weighted framework improved upon existing un-weighted methods in terms of characterizing resilience and distinguishing priority sites. The evaluation supports the concept that, despite high ecological complexity, relatively few strong variables can be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics. This is the first rigorous assessment of factors promoting coral reef resilience based on their perceived importance, empirical evidence, and feasibility of measurement. There were few differences between scientists' perceptions of factor importance and the scientific evidence found in journal publications but more before and after impact studies will be required to fully test the validity of all the factors. The methods here will increase the feasibility and defensibility of including key resilience metrics in evaluations of coral reefs, as well as reduce costs. Adaptation, marine protected areas, priority setting, resistance, recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs have been more severely impacted by recent climate instability than any other ecosystem on Earth. Corals tolerate a narrow range of physical environmental stress, and increases in sea temperature of just 1 °C over several weeks can result in mass coral mortality, often exceeding 95% of individuals over hundreds of square kilometres. Even conservative climate models predict that mass coral bleaching events could occur annually by 2050. Unfortunately, managers of coral-reef resources have few options available to meet this challenge. Here, we investigate the role that fisheries conservation tools, including the designation of marine reserves, can play in altering future trajectories of Caribbean coral reefs. We use an individual-based model of the ecological dynamics to test the influence of spatially realistic regimes of disturbance on coral populations. Two major sources of disturbance, hurricanes and coral bleaching, are simulated in contrasting regions of the Caribbean: Belize, Bonaire, and the Bahamas. Simulations are extended to 2099 using the HadGEM1 climate model. We find that coral populations can maintain themselves under all levels of hurricane disturbance providing that grazing levels are high. Regional differences in hurricane frequency are found to cause strikingly different spatial patterns of reef health with greater patchiness occurring in Belize, which has less frequent disturbance, than the Bahamas. The addition of coral bleaching led to a much more homogenous reef state over the seascape. Moreover, in the presence of bleaching, all reefs exhibited a decline in health over time, though with substantial variation among regions. Although the protection of herbivores does not prevent reef degradation it does delay rates of coral loss even under the most severe thermal and hurricane regimes. Thus, we can estimate the degree to which local conservation can help buy time for reefs with values ranging between 18 years in the Bahamas and over 50 years in Bonaire, compared with heavily fished systems. Ultimately, we demonstrate that local conservation measures can benefit reef ecosystem services but that their impact will vary spatially and temporally. Recognizing where such management interventions will either help or fail is an important step towards both achieving sustainable use of coral-reef resources and maximizing resource management investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the survey on the major threats facing coral reef systems on the International Society for Reef Studies symposium participants and members. Threats associated with human population growth, coastal development and overfishing were ranked high by the respondents. The survey also revealed that direct human impacts were considered worse threats than global climate change by about two-thirds of the respondents.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) program has been providing resource managers, scientific researchers, and other coral reef ecosystem stakeholders with coral bleaching heat stress products for more than 20 years. The development of the CoralTemp sea surface temperature (SST) dataset has allowed CRW to produce the Coral Bleaching Heat Stress product suite with climatologies and daily SST measurements from within the same SST dataset, significantly improving data quality. Previously, the Monthly Mean (MM) SST and Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) SST climatologies were derived using a different dataset from the near real-time SST. Here we provide an up-to-date description of how each product within the Coral Reef Watch Coral Bleaching Heat Stress product suite version 3.1 is derived, including descriptions of the MM, MMM, SST Anomaly, Coral Bleaching HotSpot and Degree Heating Week (DHW) products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal, benthic communities, such as coral reefs, are at particular risk due to poor water quality caused by hurricanes. In addition to the physical impacts from wave action and storm surge, hurricanes bring significant rainfall resulting in increased runoff from land. Hurricanes Irma and Maria caused record or near-record floods at many locations across Puerto Rico and resulted in major impacts on coastal and benthic ecosystems from heavy rainfall and river discharge. In this study, we use imagery from the moderate resolution Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite to quantify the impacts of hurricanes Irma and Maria, which struck Puerto Rico during September 2017, on the water quality of the coastal waters of Puerto Rico using the chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (Kd490) products. The objectives include: (1) quantify the water quality and light attenuation after the hurricanes; (2) compare this event to the climatology of these parameters, and 3) evaluate long-term exposure and exceedances of various coastal areas to low levels of turbidity. The Chl-a inner shelf values increased in 2017 during the months of June (8% above baseline), July (17%), August (5%), September (8%), October (19%), and November (28%) when compared to 2012–2016 baseline data. The values for Chl-a concentration reached and exceeded 0.45 µg/L by August 2017 and persisted above that value until December 2017. The Kd490 inner shelf values for 2017 increased (in percent) for the months of June (4% above baseline), July (9%), August (10%), September (5%), October (12%), and November (7%) when compared to 2012–2016 baseline data. The values of Kd490 in August, September, and December 2017 were the highest seen during 2012–2017. Even with the limitations of spatial resolution and loss of data to cloud cover, the 6-year imagery time-series analysis can provide a useful evaluation of the effects of these two hurricanes on the coastal water quality in Puerto Rico, and quantify the exposure of benthic habitats to higher nutrient and turbidity levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing heat stress due to global climate change is causing coral reef decline, and the Caribbean has been one of the most vulnerable regions. Here, we assessed three decades (1985–2017) of heat stress exposure in the wider Caribbean at ecoregional and local scales using remote sensing. We found a high spatial and temporal variability of heat stress, emphasizing an observed increase in heat exposure over time in most ecoregions, especially from 2003 identified as a temporal change point in heat stress. A spatiotemporal analysis classified the Caribbean into eight heat-stress regions offering a new regionalization scheme based on historical heat exposure patterns. The temporal analysis confirmed the years 1998, 2005, 2010–2011, 2015 and 2017 as severe and widespread Caribbean heat-stress events and recognized a change point in 2002–2004, after which heat exposure has been frequent in most subsequent years. Major heat-stress events may be associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but we highlight the relevance of the long-term increase in heat exposure in most ecoregions and in all ENSO phases. This work produced a new baseline and regionalization of heat stress in the basin that will enhance conservation and planning efforts underway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe marine heatwaves have recently become a common feature of global ocean conditions due to a rapidly changing climate [ 1, 2 ]. These increasingly severe thermal conditions are causing an unprecedented increase in the frequency and severity of mortality events in marine ecosystems, including on coral reefs [ 3 ]. The degradation of coral reefs will result in the collapse of ecosystem services that sustain over half a billion people globally [ 4, 5 ]. Here, we show that marine heatwave events on coral reefs are biologically distinct to how coral bleaching has been understood to date, in that heatwave conditions result in an immediate heat-induced mortality of the coral colony, rapid coral skeletal dissolution, and the loss of the three-dimensional reef structure. During heatwave-induced mortality, the coral skeletons exposed by tissue loss are, within days, encased by a complex biofilm of phototrophic microbes, whose metabolic activity accelerates calcium carbonate dissolution to rates exceeding accretion by healthy corals and far greater than has been documented on reefs under normal seawater conditions. This dissolution reduces the skeletal density and hardness and increases porosity. These results demonstrate that severe-heatwave-induced mortality events should be considered as a distinct biological phenomenon from bleaching events on coral reefs. We also suggest that such heatwave mortality events, and rapid reef decay, will become more frequent as the intensity of marine heatwaves increases and provides further compelling evidence for the need to mitigate climate change and instigate actions to reduce marine heatwaves. • Marine heatwaves lead to rapid coral mortality and microbial biofilm formation • Microbial metabolic activity results in rapid dissolution of the coral skeleton • Dissolution reduces skeletal hardness and density and increased porosity Due to climate change, coral reefs are now being subjected to extreme marine heatwave (MHW) conditions. Leggat et al. show that large-scale mortality due to MHWs and microbial colonization leads to a previously undescribed rapid dissolution of the coral skeleton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]