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1. Regional Variation in the Association of Poverty and Heart Failure Mortality in the 3135 Counties of the United States.

Author

Ahmad K, Chen EW, Nazir U, Cotts W, Andrade A, Trivedi AN, Erqou S, and Wu WC

Subjects
Adult, Aged, Cross-Sectional Studies, Diabetes Mellitus epidemiology, Female, Geography, Health Policy, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity epidemiology, Prevalence, Socioeconomic Factors, United States epidemiology, Young Adult, Coronary Disease mortality, Educational Status, Heart Failure mortality, Income statistics & numerical data, Insurance, Health statistics & numerical data, Poverty statistics & numerical data, Unemployment statistics & numerical data
Abstract

Background There is significant geographical variation in heart failure (HF) mortality across the United States. County socioeconomic factors that influence these outcomes are unknown. We studied the association between county socioeconomic factors and HF mortality and compared it with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. Methods and Results This is a cross-sectional analysis of socioeconomic factors and mortality in HF and CHD across 3135 US counties from 2010 to 2015. County-level poverty, education, income, unemployment, health insurance status, and cause-specific mortality rates were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US Census Bureau databases. Poverty had the strongest correlation with both HF and CHD mortality, disproportionately higher for HF (r=0.48) than CHD (r=0.24). HF mortality increased by 5.2 deaths/100 000 for each percentage increase in county poverty prevalence in a frequency-weighted, demographic-adjusted, multivariate regression model. The greatest attenuation in the poverty regression coefficient (66.4%) was seen after adjustment for prevalence of diabetes mellitus and obesity. Subgroup analysis by census region showed that this relationship was the strongest in the South and weakest in the Northeast (6.1 versus 1.4 deaths/100 000 per 1% increase in county poverty in a demographics-adjusted model). Conclusions County poverty is the strongest socioeconomic factor associated with HF and CHD mortality, an association that is stronger with HF than with CHD and varied by census region. Over half of the association was explained by differences in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and obesity across the counties. Health policies targeting improvement in these risk factors may address and possibly minimize health disparities caused by socioeconomic factors.

Published
2019
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2. Statins and all-cause mortality in high-risk primary prevention: a meta-analysis of 11 randomized controlled trials involving 65,229 participants.

Author

Ray KK, Seshasai SR, Erqou S, Sever P, Jukema JW, Ford I, and Sattar N

Subjects
Cause of Death trends, England epidemiology, Humans, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Risk Factors, Coronary Disease mortality, Coronary Disease prevention & control, Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors pharmacology, Primary Prevention methods
Abstract

Background: Statins have been shown to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality among individuals with clinical history of coronary heart disease. However, it remains uncertain whether statins have similar mortality benefit in a high-risk primary prevention setting. Notably, all systematic reviews to date included trials that in part incorporated participants with prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. Our objective was to reliably determine if statin therapy reduces all-cause mortality among intermediate to high-risk individuals without a history of CVD., Data Sources: Trials were identified through computerized literature searches of MEDLINE and Cochrane databases (January 1970-May 2009) using terms related to statins, clinical trials, and cardiovascular end points and through bibliographies of retrieved studies., Study Selection: Prospective, randomized controlled trials of statin therapy performed in individuals free from CVD at baseline and that reported details, or could supply data, on all-cause mortality., Data Extraction: Relevant data including the number of patients randomized, mean duration of follow-up, and the number of incident deaths were obtained from the principal publication or by correspondence with the investigators., Data Synthesis: Data were combined from 11 studies and effect estimates were pooled using a random-effects model meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed with the I(2) statistic. Data were available on 65,229 participants followed for approximately 244,000 person-years, during which 2793 deaths occurred. The use of statins in this high-risk primary prevention setting was not associated with a statistically significant reduction (risk ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.01) in the risk of all-cause mortality. There was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity among studies (I(2) = 23%; 95% confidence interval, 0%-61% [P = .23])., Conclusion: This literature-based meta-analysis did not find evidence for the benefit of statin therapy on all-cause mortality in a high-risk primary prevention set-up.

Published
2010
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4. Lipoprotein(a) concentration and the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and nonvascular mortality.

Author

Erqou S, Kaptoge S, Perry PL, Di Angelantonio E, Thompson A, White IR, Marcovina SM, Collins R, Thompson SG, and Danesh J

Subjects
Cause of Death, Humans, Risk Factors, Coronary Disease blood, Coronary Disease epidemiology, Lipoprotein(a) blood, Stroke blood, Stroke epidemiology
Abstract

Context: Circulating concentration of lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]), a large glycoprotein attached to a low-density lipoprotein-like particle, may be associated with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke., Objective: To assess the relationship of Lp(a) concentration with risk of major vascular and nonvascular outcomes., Study Selection: Long-term prospective studies that recorded Lp(a) concentration and subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality published between January 1970 and March 2009 were identified through electronic searches of MEDLINE and other databases, manual searches of reference lists, and discussion with collaborators., Data Extraction: Individual records were provided for each of 126,634 participants in 36 prospective studies. During 1.3 million person-years of follow-up, 22,076 first-ever fatal or nonfatal vascular disease outcomes or nonvascular deaths were recorded, including 9336 CHD outcomes, 1903 ischemic strokes, 338 hemorrhagic strokes, 751 unclassified strokes, 1091 other vascular deaths, 8114 nonvascular deaths, and 242 deaths of unknown cause. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation and combined using meta-analysis. Analyses excluded participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke at baseline., Data Synthesis: Lipoprotein(a) concentration was weakly correlated with several conventional vascular risk factors and it was highly consistent within individuals over several years. Associations of Lp(a) with CHD risk were broadly continuous in shape. In the 24 cohort studies, the rates of CHD in the top and bottom thirds of baseline Lp(a) distributions, respectively, were 5.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4-5.9) per 1000 person-years and 4.4 (95% CI, 4.2-4.6) per 1000 person-years. The risk ratio for CHD, adjusted for age and sex only, was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.11-1.22) per 3.5-fold higher usual Lp(a) concentration (ie, per 1 SD), and it was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.09-1.18) following further adjustment for lipids and other conventional risk factors. The corresponding adjusted risk ratios were 1.10 (95% CI, 1.02-1.18) for ischemic stroke, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.98-1.05) for the aggregate of nonvascular mortality, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.04) for cancer deaths, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.95-1.06) for nonvascular deaths other than cancer., Conclusion: Under a wide range of circumstances, there are continuous, independent, and modest associations of Lp(a) concentration with risk of CHD and stroke that appear exclusive to vascular outcomes.

Published
2009
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5. Association of cholesteryl ester transfer protein genotypes with CETP mass and activity, lipid levels, and coronary risk.

Author

Thompson A, Di Angelantonio E, Sarwar N, Erqou S, Saleheen D, Dullaart RP, Keavney B, Ye Z, and Danesh J

Subjects
Cholesterol Ester Transfer Proteins metabolism, Cholesterol, HDL blood, Coronary Disease blood, Coronary Disease epidemiology, Genotype, Humans, Phenotype, Risk Factors, Cholesterol Ester Transfer Proteins genetics, Coronary Disease genetics, Lipids blood
Abstract

Context: The importance of the cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) pathway in coronary disease is uncertain. Study of CETP genotypes can help better understand the relevance of this pathway to lipid metabolism and disease risk., Objective: To assess associations of CETP genotypes with CETP phenotypes, lipid levels, and coronary risk., Data Sources: Studies published between January 1970 and January 2008 were identified through computer-based and manual searches using MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index, and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure Database. Previously unreported studies were sought through correspondence with investigators., Study Selection: Relevant studies related principally to 3 common (TaqIB [rs708272], I405V [rs5882], and -629C>A [rs1800775]) and 3 uncommon (D442G [rs2303790], -631C>A [rs1800776], and R451Q [rs1800777]) CETP polymorphisms., Data Extraction: Information on CETP genotypes, CETP phenotypes, lipid levels, coronary disease, and study characteristics was abstracted from publications, supplied by investigators, or both., Results: Ninety-two studies had data on CETP phenotypes, lipid levels, or both in 113,833 healthy participants, and 46 studies had data on 27,196 coronary cases and 55,338 controls. For each A allele inherited, individuals with the TaqIB polymorphism had lower mean CETP mass (-9.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.7% to -7.8%), lower mean CETP activity (-8.6%; 95% CI, -13.0% to -4.1%), higher mean high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations (4.5%; 95% CI, 3.8%-5.2%), and higher mean apolipoprotein A-I concentrations (2.4%; 95% CI, 1.6%-3.2%). The pattern of findings was very similar with the I405V and -629C>A polymorphisms. The combined per-allele odds ratios (ORs) for coronary disease were 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.99) for TaqIB, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-1.00) for I405V, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91-1.00) for -629C>A., Conclusions: Three CETP genotypes that are associated with moderate inhibition of CETP activity (and, therefore, modestly higher HDL-C levels) show weakly inverse associations with coronary risk. The ORs for coronary disease were compatible with the expected reductions in risk for equivalent increases in HDL-C concentration in available prospective studies.

Published
2008
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6. Lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of future coronary heart disease: large-scale prospective data.

Author

Bennet A, Di Angelantonio E, Erqou S, Eiriksdottir G, Sigurdsson G, Woodward M, Rumley A, Lowe GD, Danesh J, and Gudnason V

Subjects
Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Coronary Disease blood, Lipoprotein(a) blood
Abstract

Background: Large-scale prospective data are needed to determine whether associations between lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk are independent of established risk factors, to characterize the shape of this relationship, and to quantify associations in relevant subgroups., Methods: Levels of Lp(a) were measured in samples obtained at baseline from 2047 patients who had first-ever nonfatal myocardial infarction or who died of CHD during the study and from 3921 control participants in the Reykjavik Study (n=18 569), as well as in paired samples obtained 12 years apart from 372 participants to quantify within-person fluctuations., Results: Baseline Lp(a) levels had little or no correlation with known cardiovascular risk factors, such as age, sex, total cholesterol level, and blood pressure. The Lp(a) values were highly consistent from decade to decade, with a regression dilution ratio (calculated on the log scale) of 0.92 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.99). The odds ratio for CHD, unaltered after adjustment for several established risk factors (age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglycerides level, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index), was 1.60 (95% confidence interval, 1.38-1.85) in a comparison of extreme thirds of baseline Lp(a) levels. Odds ratios were progressively higher with increasing Lp(a) levels and did not vary materially by several individual- or study-level characteristics., Conclusions: There are independent, continuous associations between Lp(a) levels and risk of future CHD in a broad range of individuals. Levels of Lp(a) are highly stable within individuals across many years and are only weakly correlated with known risk factors. Further assessment of their possible role in CHD prevention is warranted.

Published
2008
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7. C-reactive protein concentration and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis

Author

Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Kaptoge S, Di Angelantonio E, Lowe G, Pepys MB, Thompson SG, Collins R, Danesh JTipping RW, Ford CE, Pressel SL, Walldius G, Jungner I, Folsom AR, Chambless L, Ballantyne CM, Panagiotakos D, Pitsavos C, Chrysohoou C, Stefanadis C, Knuiman MW, Goldbourt U, Benderly M, Tanne D, Whincup P, Wannamethee SG, Morris RW, Kiechl S, Willeit J, Mayr A, Schett G, Wald N, Ebrahim S, Lawlor D, Yarnell J, Gallacher J, Casiglia E, Tikhonoff V, Nietert PJ, Sutherland SE, Bachman DL, Keil JE, Cushman M, Psaty BM, Tracy R, Tybjaerg Hansen A, Nordestgaard BG, Zacho J, Frikke Schmidt R, Giampaoli S, Palmieri L, Vanuzzo D, Pilotto L, de la Cámara AG, Gerique JA, Simons L, McCallum J, Friedlander Y, Fowkes FG, Lee A, Taylor J, Guralnik JM, Phillips CL, Wallace RB, Blazer DG, Khaw KT, Brenner H, Raum E, Müller H, Rothenbacher D, Jansson JH, Wennberg P, Nissinen A, Donfrancesco C, Salomaa V, Harald K, Jousilahti P, Vartiainen E, Woodward M, D'Agostino RB, Wolf PA, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ, Bladbjerg EM, Jørgensen T, Møller L, Jespersen J, Dankner R, Chetrit A, Lubin F, Rosengren A, Wilhelmsen L, Lappas G, Eriksson H, Björkelund C, Lissner L, Bengtsson C, Cremer P, Nagel D, Tilvis RS, Strandberg TE, Kiyohara Y, Arima H, Doi Y, Ninomiya T, Rodriguez B, Dekker J, Nijpels G, Stehouwer CD, Rimm E, Pai JK, Sato S, Iso H, Kitamura A, Noda H, Salonen JT, Nyyssönen K, Tuomainen TP, Laukkanen JA, Deeg DJ, Bremmer MA, Meade TW, Cooper JA, Hedblad B, Berglund G, Engström G, Verschuren WM, Blokstra A, Shea S, Döring A, Koenig W, Meisinger C, Bueno de Mesquita HB, Kuller LH, Grandits G, Selmer R, Tverdal A, Nystad W, Gillum RF, Mussolino M, Hankinson S, Manson JE, Knottenbelt C, Bauer KA, Davidson K, Kirkland S, Shaffer J, Korin MR, Naito Y, Holme I, Nakagawa H, Miura K, Ducimetiere P, Jouven X, Luc G, Crespo CJ, Garcia Palmieri MR, Amouyel P, Arveiler D, Evans A, Ferrieres J, Schulte H, Assmann G, Packard CJ, Sattar N, Westendorp RG, Buckley BM, Cantin B, Lamarche B, Després JP, Dagenais GR, Barrett Connor E, Wingard DL, Bettencourt RR, Gudnason V, Aspelund T, Sigurdsson G, Thorsson B, Trevisan M, Witteman J, Kardys I, Breteler MM, Hofman A, Tunstall Pedoe H, Tavendale R, Howard BV, Zhang Y, Best L, Umans J, Ben Shlomo Y, Davey Smith G, Onat A, Njølstad I, Mathiesen EB, Løchen ML, Wilsgaard T, Ingelsson E, Basu S, Cederholm T, Byberg L, Gaziano JM, Stampfer M, Ridker PM, Ulmer H, Diem G, Concin H, Tosetto A, Rodeghiero F, Wassertheil Smoller S, Marmot IM, Clarke R, Fletcher A, Brunner E, Shipley M, Buring J, Shepherd J, Cobbe S, Ford I, Robertson M, He Y, Ibañez AM, Feskens EJ, Walker M, Watson S, Erqou S, Lewington S, Pennells L, Perry PL, Ray KK, Sarwar N, Alexander M, Thompson A, White IR, Wood AM, Danesh J., PANICO, SALVATORE, Interne Geneeskunde, MUMC+: MA Interne Geneeskunde (3), RS: CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, General practice, EMGO - Lifestyle, overweight and diabetes, Psychiatry, EMGO - Mental health, Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, Kaptoge, S, Di Angelantonio, E, Lowe, G, Pepys, Mb, Thompson, Sg, Collins, R, Danesh JTipping, Rw, Ford, Ce, Pressel, Sl, Walldius, G, Jungner, I, Folsom, Ar, Chambless, L, Ballantyne, Cm, Panagiotakos, D, Pitsavos, C, Chrysohoou, C, Stefanadis, C, Knuiman, Mw, Goldbourt, U, Benderly, M, Tanne, D, Whincup, P, Wannamethee, Sg, Morris, Rw, Kiechl, S, Willeit, J, Mayr, A, Schett, G, Wald, N, Ebrahim, S, Lawlor, D, Yarnell, J, Gallacher, J, Casiglia, E, Tikhonoff, V, Nietert, Pj, Sutherland, Se, Bachman, Dl, Keil, Je, Cushman, M, Psaty, Bm, Tracy, R, Tybjaerg Hansen, A, Nordestgaard, Bg, Zacho, J, Frikke Schmidt, R, Giampaoli, S, Palmieri, L, Panico, Salvatore, Vanuzzo, D, Pilotto, L, de la Cámara, Ag, Gerique, Ja, Simons, L, Mccallum, J, Friedlander, Y, Fowkes, Fg, Lee, A, Taylor, J, Guralnik, Jm, Phillips, Cl, Wallace, Rb, Blazer, Dg, Khaw, Kt, Brenner, H, Raum, E, Müller, H, Rothenbacher, D, Jansson, Jh, Wennberg, P, Nissinen, A, Donfrancesco, C, Salomaa, V, Harald, K, Jousilahti, P, Vartiainen, E, Woodward, M, D'Agostino, Rb, Wolf, Pa, Vasan, R, Benjamin, Ej, Bladbjerg, Em, Jørgensen, T, Møller, L, Jespersen, J, Dankner, R, Chetrit, A, Lubin, F, Rosengren, A, Wilhelmsen, L, Lappas, G, Eriksson, H, Björkelund, C, Lissner, L, Bengtsson, C, Cremer, P, Nagel, D, Tilvis, R, Strandberg, Te, Kiyohara, Y, Arima, H, Doi, Y, Ninomiya, T, Rodriguez, B, Dekker, J, Nijpels, G, Stehouwer, Cd, Rimm, E, Pai, Jk, Sato, S, Iso, H, Kitamura, A, Noda, H, Salonen, Jt, Nyyssönen, K, Tuomainen, Tp, Laukkanen, Ja, Deeg, Dj, Bremmer, Ma, Meade, Tw, Cooper, Ja, Hedblad, B, Berglund, G, Engström, G, Verschuren, Wm, Blokstra, A, Shea, S, Döring, A, Koenig, W, Meisinger, C, Bueno de Mesquita, Hb, Kuller, Lh, Grandits, G, Selmer, R, Tverdal, A, Nystad, W, Gillum, Rf, Mussolino, M, Hankinson, S, Manson, Je, Knottenbelt, C, Bauer, Ka, Davidson, K, Kirkland, S, Shaffer, J, Korin, Mr, Naito, Y, Holme, I, Nakagawa, H, Miura, K, Ducimetiere, P, Jouven, X, Luc, G, Crespo, Cj, Garcia Palmieri, Mr, Amouyel, P, Arveiler, D, Evans, A, Ferrieres, J, Schulte, H, Assmann, G, Packard, Cj, Sattar, N, Westendorp, Rg, Buckley, Bm, Cantin, B, Lamarche, B, Després, Jp, Dagenais, Gr, Barrett Connor, E, Wingard, Dl, Bettencourt, Rr, Gudnason, V, Aspelund, T, Sigurdsson, G, Thorsson, B, Trevisan, M, Witteman, J, Kardys, I, Breteler, Mm, Hofman, A, Tunstall Pedoe, H, Tavendale, R, Howard, Bv, Zhang, Y, Best, L, Umans, J, Ben Shlomo, Y, Davey Smith, G, Onat, A, Njølstad, I, Mathiesen, Eb, Løchen, Ml, Wilsgaard, T, Ingelsson, E, Basu, S, Cederholm, T, Byberg, L, Gaziano, Jm, Stampfer, M, Ridker, Pm, Ulmer, H, Diem, G, Concin, H, Tosetto, A, Rodeghiero, F, Wassertheil Smoller, S, Marmot, Im, Clarke, R, Fletcher, A, Brunner, E, Shipley, M, Buring, J, Shepherd, J, Cobbe, S, Ford, I, Robertson, M, He, Y, Ibañez, Am, Feskens, Ej, Walker, M, Watson, S, Erqou, S, Lewington, S, Pennells, L, Perry, Pl, Ray, Kk, Sarwar, N, Alexander, M, Thompson, A, White, Ir, Wood, Am, and Danesh, J.

Subjects
Lung Diseases, Male, Databases, Factual, Plasma-fibrinogen, Blood Pressure, Coronary Disease, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Associations, Body Mass Index, Low-density-lipoprotein, Leukocyte Count, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Neoplasms, 030212 general & internal medicine, Stroke, Framingham Risk Score, biology, Smoking, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, General Medicine, Articles, Middle Aged, 3. Good health, C-Reactive Protein, Cholesterol, Regression Analysis, low-density lipoprotein cardiovascular-disease nonvascular mortality regression dilution plasma-fibrinogen mendelian randomization independent predictor prospective cohorts vascular-disease inflammation, Female, Risk assessment, medicine.medical_specialty, Alcohol Drinking, Regression dilution, Motor Activity, Risk Assessment, 03 medical and health sciences, Sex Factors, Cardiovascular-disease, General & Internal Medicine, Internal medicine, Diabetes Mellitus, medicine, Humans, Women, Risk factor, Serum Albumin, Triglycerides, Inflammation, Markers, Independent predictor, Interleukin-6, business.industry, Vascular disease, C-reactive protein, Fibrinogen, medicine.disease, Surgery, Relative risk, biology.protein, Nonvascular mortality, business, Biomarkers
Abstract

Udgivelsesdato: 2010-Jan-9 BACKGROUND: Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the associations of CRP concentration with risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes under different circumstances. METHODS: We meta-analysed individual records of 160 309 people without a history of vascular disease (ie, 1.31 million person-years at risk, 27 769 fatal or non-fatal disease outcomes) from 54 long-term prospective studies. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation in risk factor levels. RESULTS: Log(e) CRP concentration was linearly associated with several conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers, and nearly log-linearly with the risk of ischaemic vascular disease and non-vascular mortality. Risk ratios (RRs) for coronary heart disease per 1-SD higher log(e) CRP concentration (three-fold higher) were 1.63 (95% CI 1.51-1.76) when initially adjusted for age and sex only, and 1.37 (1.27-1.48) when adjusted further for conventional risk factors; 1.44 (1.32-1.57) and 1.27 (1.15-1.40) for ischaemic stroke; 1.71 (1.53-1.91) and 1.55 (1.37-1.76) for vascular mortality; and 1.55 (1.41-1.69) and 1.54 (1.40-1.68) for non-vascular mortality. RRs were largely unchanged after exclusion of smokers or initial follow-up. After further adjustment for fibrinogen, the corresponding RRs were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) for coronary heart disease; 1.32 (1.18-1.49) for ischaemic stroke; 1.34 (1.18-1.52) for vascular mortality; and 1.34 (1.20-1.50) for non-vascular mortality. INTERPRETATION: CRP concentration has continuous associations with the risk of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, vascular mortality, and death from several cancers and lung disease that are each of broadly similar size. The relevance of CRP to such a range of disorders is unclear. Associations with ischaemic vascular disease depend considerably on conventional risk factors and other markers of inflammation. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, BUPA Foundation, and GlaxoSmithKline.

Published
2010
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8. Diabetes mellitus, fasting blood glucose concentration, and risk of vascular disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 102 prospective studies

Author

Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Sarwar N, Gao P, Seshasai SR, Gobin R, Kaptoge S, Di Angelantonio E, Ingelsson E, Lawlor DA, Selvin E, Stampfer M, Stehouwer CD, Lewington S, Pennells L, Thompson A, Sattar N, White IR, Ray KK, Danesh J. Tipping RW, Ford CE, Pressel SL, Folsom AR, Chambless LE, Wagenknecht LE, Panagiotakos DB, Pitsavos C, Chrysohoou C, Stefanadis C, Knuiman M, Whincup PH, Wannamethee SG, Morris RW, Kiechl S, Willeit J, Oberhollenzer F, Mayr A, Wald N, Ebrahim S, Yarnell JW, Gallacher J, Casiglia E, Tikhonoff V, Nietert PJ, Sutherland SE, Bachman DL, Keil JE, de Boer IH, Kizer JR, Mukamal KJ, Tybjaerg Hansen A, Nordestgaard BG, Benn M, Frikke Schmidt R, Palmieri L, Vanuzzo D, Pilotto L, de la Cámara AG, Rubio MA, Simons L, McCallum J, Friedlander Y, Fowkes FG, Lee AJ, Taylor J, Guralnik JM, Phillips CL, Wallace R, Blazer DG, Khaw KT, Brenner H, Raum E, Müller H, Rothenbacher D, Jansson JH, Wennberg P, Nissinen A, Donfrancesco C, Giampaoli S, Salomaa V, Harald K, Jousilahti P, Vartiainen E, Woodward M, D'Agostino RB, Vasan RS, Fox CS, Pencina MJ, Bladbjerg E, Jørgensen T, Møller L, Jespersen J, Dankner R, Chetrit A, Lubin F, Wilhelmsen L, Eriksson H, Svärdsudd K, Welin L, Rosengren A, Lappas G, Björkelund C, Lissner L, Bengtsson C, Cremer P, Nagel D, Strandberg TE, Tilvis RS, Miettinen TA, Kiyohara Y, Arima H, Doi Y, Ninomiya T, Rodriguez B, Dekker JM, Nijpels G, Rimm E, Pai JK, Sato S, Iso H, Kitamura A, Noda H, Goldbourt U, Nyyssönen K, Tuomainen TP, Salonen JT, Deeg D, Poppelaars JL, Meade TW, Cooper JA, Hedblad B, Berglund G, Engström G, Verschuren WM, Blokstra A, Cushman M, Psaty BM, Shea S, Döring A, Koenig W, Meisinger C, Mraz W, Bueno de Mesquita HB, Fletcher A, Kuller LH, Grandits G, Selmer R, Tverdal A, Nystad W, Gillum R, Mussolino M, Hankinson S, Manson JE, Bauer KA, Davidson KW, Kirkland S, Shaffer J, Korin MR, Holme I, Ducimetiere P, Jouven X, Bakker SJ, Gansevoort RT, Hillege HL, Crespo CJ, Garcia Palmieri MR, Amouyel P, Arveiler D, Evans A, Ferrières J, Schulte H, Assmann G, Westendorp RG, Buckley BM, Packard CJ, Cantin B, Lamarche B, Després JP, Dagenais GR, Barrett Connor E, Wingard DL, Bettencourt R, Gudnason V, Aspelund T, Sigurdsson G, Thorsson B, Trevisan M, Witteman J, Kardys I, Breteler M, Hofman A, Tunstall Pedoe H, Tavendale R, Lowe GD, Howard BV, Zhang Y, Best L, Umans J, Ben Shlomo Y, Davey Smith G, Onat A, Hergenç G, Can G, Njølstad I, Mathiesen EB, Løchen ML, Wilsgaard T, Zethelius B, Risérus U, Berne C, Gaziano JM, Ridker P, Ulmer H, Diem G, Concin H, Tosetto A, Rodeghiero F, Tinker L, Liu S, Marmot IM, Clarke R, Collins R, Brunner E, Shipley M, Buring J, Shepherd J, Cobbe SM, Ford I, Robertson M, Ibañez AM, Feskens EJ, Kromhout D, Walker M, Watson S, Alexander M, Erqou S, Haycock P, Perry PL, Thompson SG, Wood AM, Wormser D, Danesh J., PANICO, SALVATORE, Interne Geneeskunde, RS: NUTRIM - R1 - Metabolic Syndrome, RS: CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, Sarwar, N, Gao, P, Seshasai, Sr, Gobin, R, Kaptoge, S, Di Angelantonio, E, Ingelsson, E, Lawlor, Da, Selvin, E, Stampfer, M, Stehouwer, Cd, Lewington, S, Pennells, L, Thompson, A, Sattar, N, White, Ir, Ray, Kk, Danesh J., Tipping RW, Ford, Ce, Pressel, Sl, Folsom, Ar, Chambless, Le, Wagenknecht, Le, Panagiotakos, Db, Pitsavos, C, Chrysohoou, C, Stefanadis, C, Knuiman, M, Whincup, Ph, Wannamethee, Sg, Morris, Rw, Kiechl, S, Willeit, J, Oberhollenzer, F, Mayr, A, Wald, N, Ebrahim, S, Yarnell, Jw, Gallacher, J, Casiglia, E, Tikhonoff, V, Nietert, Pj, Sutherland, Se, Bachman, Dl, Keil, Je, de Boer, Ih, Kizer, Jr, Mukamal, Kj, Tybjaerg Hansen, A, Nordestgaard, Bg, Benn, M, Frikke Schmidt, R, Palmieri, L, Panico, Salvatore, Vanuzzo, D, Pilotto, L, de la Cámara, Ag, Rubio, Ma, Simons, L, Mccallum, J, Friedlander, Y, Fowkes, Fg, Lee, Aj, Taylor, J, Guralnik, Jm, Phillips, Cl, Wallace, R, Blazer, Dg, Khaw, Kt, Brenner, H, Raum, E, Müller, H, Rothenbacher, D, Jansson, Jh, Wennberg, P, Nissinen, A, Donfrancesco, C, Giampaoli, S, Salomaa, V, Harald, K, Jousilahti, P, Vartiainen, E, Woodward, M, D'Agostino, Rb, Vasan, R, Fox, C, Pencina, Mj, Bladbjerg, E, Jørgensen, T, Møller, L, Jespersen, J, Dankner, R, Chetrit, A, Lubin, F, Wilhelmsen, L, Eriksson, H, Svärdsudd, K, Welin, L, Rosengren, A, Lappas, G, Björkelund, C, Lissner, L, Bengtsson, C, Cremer, P, Nagel, D, Strandberg, Te, Tilvis, R, Miettinen, Ta, Kiyohara, Y, Arima, H, Doi, Y, Ninomiya, T, Rodriguez, B, Dekker, Jm, Nijpels, G, Rimm, E, Pai, Jk, Sato, S, Iso, H, Kitamura, A, Noda, H, Goldbourt, U, Nyyssönen, K, Tuomainen, Tp, Salonen, Jt, Deeg, D, Poppelaars, Jl, Meade, Tw, Cooper, Ja, Hedblad, B, Berglund, G, Engström, G, Verschuren, Wm, Blokstra, A, Cushman, M, Psaty, Bm, Shea, S, Döring, A, Koenig, W, Meisinger, C, Mraz, W, Bueno de Mesquita, Hb, Fletcher, A, Kuller, Lh, Grandits, G, Selmer, R, Tverdal, A, Nystad, W, Gillum, R, Mussolino, M, Hankinson, S, Manson, Je, Bauer, Ka, Davidson, Kw, Kirkland, S, Shaffer, J, Korin, Mr, Holme, I, Ducimetiere, P, Jouven, X, Bakker, Sj, Gansevoort, Rt, Hillege, Hl, Crespo, Cj, Garcia Palmieri, Mr, Amouyel, P, Arveiler, D, Evans, A, Ferrières, J, Schulte, H, Assmann, G, Westendorp, Rg, Buckley, Bm, Packard, Cj, Cantin, B, Lamarche, B, Després, Jp, Dagenais, Gr, Barrett Connor, E, Wingard, Dl, Bettencourt, R, Gudnason, V, Aspelund, T, Sigurdsson, G, Thorsson, B, Trevisan, M, Witteman, J, Kardys, I, Breteler, M, Hofman, A, Tunstall Pedoe, H, Tavendale, R, Lowe, Gd, Howard, Bv, Zhang, Y, Best, L, Umans, J, Ben Shlomo, Y, Davey Smith, G, Onat, A, Hergenç, G, Can, G, Njølstad, I, Mathiesen, Eb, Løchen, Ml, Wilsgaard, T, Zethelius, B, Risérus, U, Berne, C, Gaziano, Jm, Ridker, P, Ulmer, H, Diem, G, Concin, H, Tosetto, A, Rodeghiero, F, Tinker, L, Liu, S, Marmot, Im, Clarke, R, Collins, R, Brunner, E, Shipley, M, Buring, J, Shepherd, J, Cobbe, Sm, Ford, I, Robertson, M, Ibañez, Am, Feskens, Ej, Kromhout, D, Walker, M, Watson, S, Alexander, M, Erqou, S, Haycock, P, Perry, Pl, Thompson, Sg, Wood, Am, Wormser, D, Danesh, J., and University of Groningen

Subjects
Adult, Blood Glucose, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, PATHOPHYSIOLOGY, 030209 endocrinology & metabolism, Coronary Disease, Disease, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, THERAPY, Diabetes Complications, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Diabetes mellitus, Internal medicine, General & Internal Medicine, medicine, Diabetes Mellitus, Humans, CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE, Prospective cohort study, Stroke, Aged, Glucose Metabolism Disorders, business.industry, Vascular disease, MORTALITY, Absolute risk reduction, ASIA-PACIFIC REGION, WOMEN, General Medicine, Fasting, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Articles, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Impaired fasting glucose, 3. Good health, Endocrinology, Blood pressure, ATHEROSCLEROSIS, Cardiovascular Diseases, CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASES, Female, coronary-heart-disease asia-pacific region cardiovascular-diseases task-force pathophysiology atherosclerosis mortality therapy women, business, TASK-FORCE
Abstract

Summary Background Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. Findings Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8·49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2·00 (95% CI 1·83–2·19) for coronary heart disease; 2·27 (1·95–2·65) for ischaemic stroke; 1·56 (1·19–2·05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1·84 (1·59–2·13) for unclassified stroke; and 1·73 (1·51–1·98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40–59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10–12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3·90 mmol/L and 5·59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3·90–5·59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1·07 (0·97–1·18) for lower than 3·90 mmol/L; 1·11 (1·04–1·18) for 5·60–6·09 mmol/L; and 1·17 (1·08–1·26) for 6·10–6·99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. Interpretation Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease. Funding British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.

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