1. Growth differentiation factor-15 predicts all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with coronary heart disease: a prospective cohort study.
- Author
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Lyu L, Xv C, Xu J, Liu Z, He Y, Zhu W, Lin L, Yang Q, Wei Y, Wang J, Huang T, Hao B, and Liu H
- Subjects
- Humans, Female, Middle Aged, Male, Aged, Prospective Studies, Prognosis, Acute Coronary Syndrome blood, Acute Coronary Syndrome mortality, Acute Coronary Syndrome complications, Heart Failure mortality, Heart Failure blood, Myocardial Infarction blood, Myocardial Infarction mortality, Biomarkers blood, Cause of Death, Predictive Value of Tests, Stroke blood, Stroke mortality, Growth Differentiation Factor 15 blood, Coronary Disease mortality, Coronary Disease blood
- Abstract
The prognostic value of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in predicting long-term adverse outcomes in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients remains limited. Our study examines the association between GDF-15 and adverse outcomes over an extended period in CHD patients and firstly assesses the incremental prognostic effect of incorporating GDF-15 into the Framingham risk score (FRS)-based model. This single-center prospective cohort study included 3,321 patients with CHD categorized into 2,479 acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (74.6%) and 842 non-ACS (25.4%) groups. The median age was 61.0 years (range: 53.0-70.0), and 917 (27.6%) were females. Mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) included cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF) (inclusive of HF episodes requiring outpatient treatment and/or hospital admission). Cox regression models assessed the associations between GDF-15 and the incidence of all-cause mortality and MACEs. Patients were stratified into three groups based on GDF-15 levels: the first tertile group (< 1,370 ng/L), the second tertile group (1,370-2,556 ng/L), and the third tertile group (> 2,556 ng/L). The C-index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess incremental value. Over a median 9.4-year follow-up, 759 patients (22.9%) died, and 1,291 (38.9%) experienced MACEs. The multivariate Cox model indicated that GDF-15 was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (per ln unit increase, HR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.36-1.64) and MACEs (per ln unit increase, HR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.20-1.38). These associations persisted when GDF-15 was analyzed as an ordinal variable (p for trend < 0.05). Subgroup analysis of ACS and non-ACS for the components of MACEs separately showed a significant association between GDF-15 and both cardiovascular mortality and HF, but no association was observed between GDF-15 and MI /stroke in both ACS and non-ACS patients. The addition of GDF-15 to the FRS-based model enhanced the discrimination for both all-cause mortality (∆ C-index = 0.009, 95% CI: 0.005-0.014; IDI = 0.030, 95% CI: 0.015-0.047; continuous NRI = 0.631, 95% CI: 0.569-0.652) and MACEs (∆ C-index = 0.009, 95% CI: 0.006-0.012; IDI = 0.026, 95% CI: 0.009-0.042; continuous NRI = 0.593, 95% CI: 0.478-0.682). DCA suggested that incorporating GDF-15 into the FRS-based model demonstrated higher net benefits compared to FRS-based models alone (All-cause mortality: FRS-based model: area under the curve of DCA (AUDC) = 0.0903, FRS-based model + GDF-15: AUDC = 0.0908; MACEs: FRS-based model: AUDC = 0.1806, FRS-based model + GDF-15: AUDC = 0.1833). GDF-15 significantly associates with the long-term prognosis of all-cause mortality and MACEs in CHD patients and significantly improves the prognostic accuracy of the FRS-based model for both outcomes., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)
- Published
- 2024
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