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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the global health system and economic structure. Although the implementation of lockdown measures achieved notable success in curbing the spread of the pandemic, it concurrently incurred substantial socioeconomic costs., Objective: The objective of this study was to delineate an equilibrium between the economic losses and health benefits of lockdown measures, with the aim of identifying the optimal boundary conditions for implementing these measures at various pandemic phases., Methods: This study used a model to estimate the half-lives of the observed case fatality rates of different strains. It was based on global infection and death data collected by the World Health Organization and strain sequence time series data provided by Nextstrain. The connection between the health benefits and economic losses brought by lockdown measures was established through the calculation of disability-adjusted life years. Taking China's city lockdowns as an example, this study determined the cost-benefit boundary of various lockdown measures during the evolution of COVID-19., Results: The study reveals a direct proportionality between economic losses due to lockdowns and the observed case fatality rates of virus strains, a relationship that holds true irrespective of population size or per capita economic output. As SARS-CoV-2 strains evolve and population immunity shifts, there has been a notable decrease in the observed case fatality rate over time, exhibiting a half-life of roughly 8 months. This decline in fatality rates may offset the health benefits of maintaining unchanged lockdown measures, given that the resultant economic losses might exceed the health benefits., Conclusions: The initial enforcement of lockdown in Wuhan led to significant health benefits. However, with the decline in the observed case fatality rate of the virus strains, the economic losses increasingly outweighed the health benefits. Consequently, it is essential to consistently refine and enhance lockdown strategies in accordance with the evolving fatality and infection rates of different virus strains, thereby optimizing outcomes in anticipation of future pandemics., (©Wenxiu Chen, Bin Zhang, Chen Wang, Wei An, Shashika Kumudumali Guruge, Ho-kwong Chui, Min Yang. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 07.06.2024.)

The paper discusses the implementation of Hong Kong's tailor-made sewage surveillance programme led by the Government, which has demonstrated how an efficient and well-organized sewage surveillance system can complement conventional epidemiological surveillance to facilitate the planning of intervention strategies and actions for combating COVID-19 pandemic in real-time. This included the setting up of a comprehensive sewerage network-based SARS-CoV-2 virus surveillance programme with 154 stationary sites covering 6 million people (or 80 % of the total population), and employing an intensive monitoring programme to take samples from each stationary site every 2 days. From 1 January to 22 May 2022, the daily confirmed case count started with 17 cases per day on 1 January to a maximum of 76,991 cases on 3 March and dropped to 237 cases on 22 May. During this period, a total of 270 "Restriction-Testing Declaration" (RTD) operations at high-risk residential areas were conducted based on the sewage virus testing results, where over 26,500 confirmed cases were detected with a majority being asymptomatic. In addition, Compulsory Testing Notices (CTN) were issued to residents, and the distribution of Rapid Antigen Test kits was adopted as alternatives to RTD operations in areas of moderate risk. These measures formulated a tiered and cost-effective approach to combat the disease in the local setting. Some ongoing and future enhancement efforts to improve efficacy are discussed from the perspective of wastewater-based epidemiology. Forecast models on case counts based on sewage virus testing results were also developed with R 2 of 0.9669-0.9775, which estimated that up to 22 May 2022, around 2,000,000 people (~67 % higher than the total number of 1,200,000 reported to the health authority, due to various constraints or limitations) had potentially contracted the disease, which is believed to be reflecting the real situation occurring in a highly urbanized metropolis like Hong Kong., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

To effectively control the ongoing outbreaks of fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variants, there is an urgent need to add rapid variant detection and discrimination methods to the existing sewage surveillance systems established worldwide. We designed eight assays based on allele-specific RT-qPCR for real-time allelic discrimination of eight SARS-CoV-2 variants (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Omicron, Lambda, Mu, and Kappa) in sewage. In silico analysis of the designed assays for identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants using more than four million SARS-CoV-2 variant sequences yielded ∼100% specificity and >90% sensitivity. All assays could sensitively discriminate and quantify target variants at levels as low as 10 viral RNA copy/µL with minimal cross-reactivity to the corresponding nontarget genotypes, even for sewage samples containing mixtures of SARS-CoV-2 variants with differential abundances. Integration of this method into the routine sewage surveillance in Hong Kong successfully identified the Beta variant in a community sewage. Complete concordance was observed between the results of viral whole-genome sequencing and those of our novel assays in sewage samples that contained exclusively the Delta variant discharged by a clinically diagnosed COVID-19 patient living in a quarantine hotel. Our assays in this method also provided real-time discrimination of the newly emerging Omicron variant in sewage two days prior to clinical test results in another quarantine hotel in Hong Kong. These novel allelic discrimination assays offer a rapid, sensitive, and specific way for detecting multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants in sewage and can be directly integrated into the existing sewage surveillance systems., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Sewage surveillance is increasingly employed as a supplementary tool for COVID-19 control. Experiences learnt from large-scale trials could guide better interpretation of the sewage data for public health interventions. Here, we compared the performance of seven commonly used primer-probe sets in RT-qPCR and evaluated the usefulness in the sewage surveillance program in Hong Kong. All selected primer-probe sets reliably detected SARS-CoV-2 in pure water at 7 copies per μL. Sewage matrix did not influence RT-qPCR determination of SARS-CoV-2 concentrated from a small-volume sewage (30 mL) but introduced inhibitory impacts on a large-volume sewage (920 mL) with a ΔCt of 0.2-10.8. Diagnostic performance evaluation in finding COVID-19 cases showed that N1 was the best single primer-probe set, while the ORF1ab set is not recommended. Sewage surveillance using the N1 set for over 3200 samples effectively caught the outbreak trend and, importantly, had a 56% sensitivity and a 96% specificity in uncovering the signal sources from new cases and/or convalescent patients in the community. Our study paves the way for selecting detection primer-probe sets in wider applications in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sewage surveillance could help develop proactive response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but currently there are limited reports about examples in practical exercises. Here, we report a use case of intensified sewage surveillance to initiate public health action to thwart a looming Delta variant outbreak in Hong Kong. On 21 June 2021, albeit under basically contained COVID-19 situation in Hong Kong, routine sewage surveillance identified a high viral load of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a sewage sample from one site covering over 33,000 population, suggesting infected cases living in the respective sewershed. The use of a newly developed method based on allele-specific real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (AS RT-qPCR) served to alert the first documentation of the Delta variant in local community sewage three days before the case was confirmed to be a Delta variant carrier. Intensified sewage surveillance was triggered. Targeted upstream sampling at sub-sewershed areas pinpointed the source of positive viral signal across spatial scales from sewershed to building level, and assisted in determining the specific area for issuing a compulsory testing order for individuals on 23 June 2021. A person who lived in a building with the positive result of sewage testing was confirmed to be infected with COVID-19 on 24 June 2021. Viral genome sequences determined from the sewage sample were compared to those from the clinic specimens of the matched patient, and confirmed that the person was the source of the positive SARS-CoV-2 signal in the sewage sample. This study could help build confidences for public health agencies in using the sewage surveillance in their own communities., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Sewage surveillance, by detecting SARS-CoV-2 virus circulation at the community level, has the potential to supplement individual surveillance for COVID-19. However, to date, there have been no reports about the large-scale implementation and validation of sewage surveillance for public health action., Objective: Here, we developed a standardized approach for SARS-CoV-2 detection in sewage and applied it prospectively to supplement public health interventions., Methods: We analyzed 1,169 sewage samples collected at 492 sites from December 2020 to March 2021. Forty-seven of 492 sites tested positive, 44 (94%) of them had traceable sources of viral signals in the corresponding sewershed, either from previously unsuspected but subsequently confirmed patients or recently convalescent patients or from both patient groups., Results: Sewage surveillance had a sensitivity of 54%, a specificity of 95%, a positive predictive value of 53%, and a negative predictive value of 95% for identifying a previously unsuspected patient within a sewershed. Sewage surveillance in Hong Kong provided a basis for the statutory public health action to detect silent COVID-19 transmission., Discussion: Considering the epidemiological data together with the sewage testing results, compulsory testing was conducted for individual residents at 27 positive sewage sites and uncovered total of 62 previously unsuspected patients, demonstrating the value of sewage surveillance in uncovering previously unsuspected patients in the community. Our study suggests that sewage surveillance could be a powerful management tool for the control of COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9966.