1. Symptom-Based Predictive Model of COVID-19 Disease in Children.
- Author
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Antoñanzas JM, Perramon A, López C, Boneta M, Aguilera C, Capdevila R, Gatell A, Serrano P, Poblet M, Canadell D, Vilà M, Catasús G, Valldepérez C, Català M, Soler-Palacín P, Prats C, Soriano-Arandes A, and The Copedi-Cat Research Group
- Subjects
- Adolescent, COVID-19 epidemiology, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Machine Learning, Male, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, COVID-19 diagnosis, COVID-19 Testing methods, SARS-CoV-2 isolation & purification
- Abstract
Background: Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is neither always accessible nor easy to perform in children. We aimed to propose a machine learning model to assess the need for a SARS-CoV-2 test in children (<16 years old), depending on their clinical symptoms., Methods: Epidemiological and clinical data were obtained from the REDCap
® registry. Overall, 4434 SARS-CoV-2 tests were performed in symptomatic children between 1 November 2020 and 31 March 2021, 784 were positive (17.68%). We pre-processed the data to be suitable for a machine learning (ML) algorithm, balancing the positive-negative rate and preparing subsets of data by age. We trained several models and chose those with the best performance for each subset., Results: The use of ML demonstrated an AUROC of 0.65 to predict a COVID-19 diagnosis in children. The absence of high-grade fever was the major predictor of COVID-19 in younger children, whereas loss of taste or smell was the most determinant symptom in older children., Conclusions: Although the accuracy of the models was lower than expected, they can be used to provide a diagnosis when epidemiological data on the risk of exposure to COVID-19 is unknown.- Published
- 2021
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