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The crop model data assimilation approach has been acknowledged as an effective tool for monitoring crop growth and estimating yield. However, the choice of assimilated variables and the mismatch in scale between remotely sensed observations and crop model-simulated state variables have various effects on the performance of yield estimation. This study aims to examine the accuracy of crop yield estimation through the joint assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (SM) and to examine the scale effect between remotely sensed data and crop model simulations. To address these issues, we proposed an improved crop data-model assimilation (CDMA) framework, which integrates LAI and SM, as retrieved from remotely sensed data, into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach for winter wheat yield estimation. The results showed that the yield estimation at a 10 m grid size outperformed that at a 500 m grid size, using the same assimilation strategy. Additionally, the winter wheat yield estimation accuracy was higher when using the bivariate data assimilation method (R2 = 0.46, RMSE = 756 kg/ha) compared to the univariate method. In conclusion, our study highlights the advantages of joint assimilating LAI and SM for crop yield estimation and emphasizes the importance of finer spatial resolution in remotely sensed observations for crop yield estimation using the CDMA framework. The proposed approach would help to develop a high-accuracy crop yield monitoring system using optical and SAR retrieved parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Developing a two-step inference algorithm to solve the joint posterior distribution of model parameters and state variables in assimilating remote sensing into crop model. • The effectiveness of the proposed DA algorithm has been verified experimentally. • Introducing the uncertainties of model parameters quantified by MCMC and LAI observations quantified by GPR into the ensemble data assimilation method. Data assimilation techniques integrating crop growth models and remote sensing technologies offer a feasible approach for large-scale crop yield estimation. Previous research has primarily focused on either recalibrate the uncertain model parameters or updating model state variables independently using remotely sensed observations. In this study, we developed a two-step inference algorithm that couples the parameter inference and the state update, to solve the joint posterior distribution of uncertain parameters and state variables given the remote sensing observations. An Observing Simulation System (OSS) experiment was first performed based on the WOFOST crop model to validate the effectiveness of the parameter inference method. The results indicate that, the parameter inference method successfully improved the estimation of different types of model parameters and enhanced yield estimation. Furthermore, leaf area index (LAI) retrieved from Sentinel-2 was assimilated into the WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat yield at the plot scale in the northeastern part of Henan Province. The results demonstrated that the proposed two-step inference algorithm can more effectively correct model simulation biases and improve winter wheat yield estimation accuracy (R²=0.58, MAPE=12.75 %, and RMSE=1112 kg·ha⁻¹), outperforming the standard EnKF algorithm (R²=0.51, MAPE=14.62 %, RMSE=1328 kg·ha⁻¹). Overall, attributed to its unified approach to estimating both model parameters and state variables, the proposed two-step inference algorithm shows promising application prospects for data assimilation-based crop yield estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale mismatch between remote sensing observations and state variables simulated by crop growth models decreases the reliability of crop yield estimates. To overcome this problem, we implemented a two-step data-assimilation approach: first, we generated a time series of 30-m-resolution leaf area index (LAI) by combining Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and three Landsat TM images with a Kalman filter algorithm (the synthetic KF LAI series); second, the time series were assimilated into the WOFOST crop growth model to generate an ensemble Kalman filter LAI time series (the EnKF-assimilated LAI series). The synthetic EnKF LAI series then drove the WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat yields at 1-km resolution for pixels with wheat fractions of at least 50%. The county-level aggregated yield estimates were compared with official statistical yields. The synthetic KF LAI time series produced a more realistic characterization of LAI phenological dynamics. Assimilation of the synthetic KF LAI series produced more accurate estimates of regional winter wheat yield ( R 2 = 0.43; root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 439 kg ha −1 ) than three other approaches: WOFOST without assimilation (determination coefficient R 2 = 0.14; RMSE = 647 kg ha −1 ), assimilation of Landsat TM LAI ( R 2 = 0.37; RMSE = 472 kg ha −1 ), and assimilation of S-G filtered MODIS LAI ( R 2 = 0.49; RMSE = 1355 kg ha −1 ). Thus, assimilating the synthetic KF LAI series into the WOFOST model with the EnKF strategy provides a reliable and promising method for improving regional estimates of winter wheat yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate regional crop-yield estimates are crucial for guiding agronomic practices and policies to improve food security. In this study, a crop-growth model was integrated with time series of remotely sensed data through deep learning (DL) methods to improve the accuracy of regional wheat-yield estimations in Henan Province, China. Firstly, the time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were input into the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to identify the wheat-growing region, which was further used to estimate wheat areas at the municipal and county levels. Then, the leaf area index (LAI) and grain-yield time series simulated by the Crop Environment REsource Synthesis for Wheat (CERES-Wheat) model were used to train and evaluate the LSTM, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and random forest (RF) models, respectively. Finally, an exponential model of the relationship between the field-measured LAI and MODIS NDVI was applied to obtain the regional LAI, which was input into the trained LSTM, 1-D CNN and RF models to estimate wheat yields within the wheat-growing region. The results showed that the linear correlations between the estimated wheat areas and the statistical areas were significant at both the municipal and county levels. The LSTM model provided more accurate estimates of wheat yields, with higher R2 values and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) values than the 1-D CNN and RF models. The LSTM model has an inherent advantage in capturing phenological information contained in the time series of the MODIS-derived LAI, which is important for satellite-based crop-yield estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green leaf area index (LAI) is an important variable related to crop growth. Accurate and timely information on LAI is essential for developing suitable field management strategies to mitigate risk and boost yield. Several remote sensing (RS) based methods have been recently developed to estimate LAI at the regional scale. However, the performance of these methods tends to be affected by the quality of RS data, especially when time-series LAI are required. For crop LAI estimation, supplementary growth information from crop model is helpful to address this issue. In this study, we focus on the regional-scale LAI estimations of spring maize for the entire growth season. Using time-series multispectral RS data acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and the World Food Studies (WOFOST) crop model, three methods were applied at different crop growth stages: empirical method using vegetation index (VI), data assimilation method and hybrid method. The VI-based method and assimilation method were used to generate time-series LAI estimations for the whole crop growth season. Then, a hybrid method specially for the late-stage LAI retrieval was developed by integrating WOFOST model and data assimilation. Using field-collected LAI data in Hongxing Farm in 2014, the performances of these three methods were evaluated. At the early stage, the VI-based method (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 0.16, n = 36) achieved higher accuracy than the assimilation method (R2 = 0.54, RMSE = 0.52, n = 36), whereas at the mid stage, the assimilation method (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 0.46, n = 28) showed higher accuracy than the VI-based method (R2 = 0.41, RMSE = 0.51, n = 28). At the late stage, the hybrid method yielded the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 0.46, n = 29), compared with the VI-based method (R2 = 0.19, RMSE = 0.43, n = 28) and the assimilation method (R2 = 0.20, RMSE = 0.44, n = 29). Based on the results above, we considered a combination of the three methods, i.e., the VI-based method for the early stage, the assimilation method for the mid stage, and the hybrid method for the late stage, as an ideal strategy for spring-maize LAI estimation for the entire growth season of 2014 in Hongxing Farm, and the accuracy of the combined method over the whole growth season is higher than that of any single method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting crop maturity dates is important for improving crop harvest planning and grain quality. The prediction of crop maturity dates by assimilating remote sensing information into crop growth model has not been fully explored. In this study, a data assimilation framework incorporating the leaf area index (LAI) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into a World Food Studies (WOFOST) model was proposed to predict the maturity dates of winter wheat in Henan province, China. Minimization of normalized cost function was used to obtain the input parameters of the WOFOST model. The WOFOST model was run with the re-initialized parameter to forecast the maturity dates of winter wheat grid by grid, and THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) was used as forecasting period weather input in the future 15 days (d) for the WOFOST model. The results demonstrated a promising regional maturity date prediction with determination coefficient (R2) of 0.94 and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.86 d. The outcomes also showed that the optimal forecasting starting time for Henan was 30 April, corresponding to a stage from anthesis to grain filling. Our study indicated great potential of using data assimilation approaches in winter wheat maturity date prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]