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Crop growth models are powerful tools for predicting crop growth and yield. Gross primary production (GPP) is a major photosynthetic flux that is directly linked to crop grain yield. To better understand the potential of GPP for regional crop yield estimation, in this study, a novel crop data-model assimilation (CDMA) framework was proposed that assimilates accumulative GPP estimates from the satellite-based vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) into the WOrld FOod STudies (WOFOST) model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm to estimate winter wheat GPP and grain yield. Results showed that the WOFOST simulated GPP agreed with the GPP EC derived from eddy flux tower (R2 = 0.74 and 0.47 in 2015 and 2016, respectively). Assimilating GPP VPM into the WOFOST model improved site-scale GPP estimation (R2 = 0.87 and 0.67 in 2015 and 2016, respectively), and also improved regional-scale winter wheat yield estimates (R2 = 0.36 and 0.29; RMSE= 479 and 572 kg/ha in 2015 and 2016, respectively) compared with the open loop simulations (R2 = 0.14 and 0.10; RMSE= 801 and 788 kg/ha in 2015 and 2016, respectively). Our study demonstrated that assimilation of remotely sensed GPP optimized the results of carbon simulation in the WOFOST model and highlighted the potential of GPP for regional winter wheat yield estimation using a data assimilation framework. • We developed a data-assimilation framework that assimilates remotely sensed GPP data into the WOFOST crop model. • The WOFOST-simulated GPP was strongly related to eddy flux tower simulated GPP. • Assimilating VPM-based GPP into the WOFOST model improved regional-scale winter wheat yield estimation. • A novel ensemble generation method sampled posterior WOFOST parameters to generate WOFOST simulated GPP ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale mismatch between remote sensing observations and state variables simulated by crop growth models decreases the reliability of crop yield estimates. To overcome this problem, we implemented a two-step data-assimilation approach: first, we generated a time series of 30-m-resolution leaf area index (LAI) by combining Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and three Landsat TM images with a Kalman filter algorithm (the synthetic KF LAI series); second, the time series were assimilated into the WOFOST crop growth model to generate an ensemble Kalman filter LAI time series (the EnKF-assimilated LAI series). The synthetic EnKF LAI series then drove the WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat yields at 1-km resolution for pixels with wheat fractions of at least 50%. The county-level aggregated yield estimates were compared with official statistical yields. The synthetic KF LAI time series produced a more realistic characterization of LAI phenological dynamics. Assimilation of the synthetic KF LAI series produced more accurate estimates of regional winter wheat yield ( R 2 = 0.43; root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 439 kg ha −1 ) than three other approaches: WOFOST without assimilation (determination coefficient R 2 = 0.14; RMSE = 647 kg ha −1 ), assimilation of Landsat TM LAI ( R 2 = 0.37; RMSE = 472 kg ha −1 ), and assimilation of S-G filtered MODIS LAI ( R 2 = 0.49; RMSE = 1355 kg ha −1 ). Thus, assimilating the synthetic KF LAI series into the WOFOST model with the EnKF strategy provides a reliable and promising method for improving regional estimates of winter wheat yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-based models have tremendous potential for monitoring crop production because satellite data can provide temporally and spatially continuous crop growth information at large scale. This study used a satellite-based vegetation production model (i.e., eddy covariance light use efficiency, EC-LUE) to estimate national winter wheat gross primary production, and then combined this model with the harvest index (ratio of aboveground biomass to yield) to convert the estimated winter wheat production to yield. Specifically, considering the spatial differences of the harvest index, we used a cross-validation method to invert the harvest index of winter wheat among counties, municipalities and provinces. Using the field-surveyed and statistical yield data, we evaluated the model performance, and found the model could explain more than 50% of the spatial variations of the yield both in field-surveyed regions and most administrative units. Overall, the mean absolute percentage errors of the yield are less than 20% in most counties, municipalities and provinces, and the mean absolute percentage errors for the production of winter wheat at the national scale is 4.06%. This study demonstrates that a satellite-based model is an alternative method for crop yield estimation on a larger scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate regional crop-yield estimates are crucial for guiding agronomic practices and policies to improve food security. In this study, a crop-growth model was integrated with time series of remotely sensed data through deep learning (DL) methods to improve the accuracy of regional wheat-yield estimations in Henan Province, China. Firstly, the time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were input into the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to identify the wheat-growing region, which was further used to estimate wheat areas at the municipal and county levels. Then, the leaf area index (LAI) and grain-yield time series simulated by the Crop Environment REsource Synthesis for Wheat (CERES-Wheat) model were used to train and evaluate the LSTM, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and random forest (RF) models, respectively. Finally, an exponential model of the relationship between the field-measured LAI and MODIS NDVI was applied to obtain the regional LAI, which was input into the trained LSTM, 1-D CNN and RF models to estimate wheat yields within the wheat-growing region. The results showed that the linear correlations between the estimated wheat areas and the statistical areas were significant at both the municipal and county levels. The LSTM model provided more accurate estimates of wheat yields, with higher R2 values and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) values than the 1-D CNN and RF models. The LSTM model has an inherent advantage in capturing phenological information contained in the time series of the MODIS-derived LAI, which is important for satellite-based crop-yield estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of this research is to investigate the potential of application of China Environment Satellite HJ-1A/B in monitoring rice cultivation areas in Guangdong province in southern China. Information on the rice cultivation areas is of global economic and environmental significance. A CCD camera sensor with 30 m spatial resolution onboard China Environment Satellite HJ-1A and B has visible and near infrared bands and a revisit period of four days; the temporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can therefore be obtained from HJ-1A and B data. The characteristics of the temporal NDVI derived from HJ-1A and B images of rice fields and other crops at rice growth stages in the western part of Guangdong province of China with an area of about 67000 km2 were first analyzed in this research and an algorithm for mapping paddy rice fields was developed based on the temporal changes of NDVI of rice fields from January to July, 2009. The mapping result was evaluated by field survey and the data from China Ministry of Agriculture and the promising accuracy was found with a Kappa factor of 0.71. The result of this study suggests that the China Environment Satellite HJ-1A/B has great potential in the development of an operational system for monitoring rice crop growth in southern China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Predicting crop maturity dates is important for improving crop harvest planning and grain quality. The prediction of crop maturity dates by assimilating remote sensing information into crop growth model has not been fully explored. In this study, a data assimilation framework incorporating the leaf area index (LAI) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into a World Food Studies (WOFOST) model was proposed to predict the maturity dates of winter wheat in Henan province, China. Minimization of normalized cost function was used to obtain the input parameters of the WOFOST model. The WOFOST model was run with the re-initialized parameter to forecast the maturity dates of winter wheat grid by grid, and THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) was used as forecasting period weather input in the future 15 days (d) for the WOFOST model. The results demonstrated a promising regional maturity date prediction with determination coefficient (R2) of 0.94 and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.86 d. The outcomes also showed that the optimal forecasting starting time for Henan was 30 April, corresponding to a stage from anthesis to grain filling. Our study indicated great potential of using data assimilation approaches in winter wheat maturity date prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Provides strategies of choice of remote sensing-crop model data assimilation methods. • Focuses on the key issues to improving the performance of data assimilation. • Future research directions of remote sensing-crop model data assimilation are suggested. Timely monitoring of crop lands is important in order to make agricultural activities more sustainable, as well as ensuring food security. The use of Earth Observation (EO) data allows crop monitoring at a range of spatial scales, but can be hampered by limitations in the data. Crop growth modelling, on the other hand, can be used to simulate the physiological processes that result in crop development. Data assimilation (DA) provides a way of blending the monitoring properties of EO data with the predictive and explanatory abilities of crop growth models. In this paper, we first provide a critique of both the advantages and disadvantages of both EO data and crop growth models. We use this to introduce a solid and robust framework for DA, where different DA methods are shown to be derived from taking different assumptions in solving for the a posteriori probability density function (pdf) using Bayes' rule. This treatment allows us to provide some recommendation on the choice of DA method for particular applications. We comment on current computational challenges in scaling DA applications to large spatial scales. Future areas of research are sketched, with an emphasis on DA as an enabler for blending different observations, as well as facilitating different approaches to crop growth models. We have illustrated this review with a large number of examples from the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop phenology information provides essential information on crop growth phases, which are highly required for agroecosystem management and yield estimation. Previous crop phenology studies were mainly conducted using coarse-resolution (e.g., 500 m) satellite data, such as the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. However, precision agriculture requires higher resolution phenology information of crops for better agroecosystem management, and this requirement can be met by long-term and fine-resolution Landsat observations. In this study, we generated the first national maize phenology product with a fine spatial resolution (30 m) and a long temporal span (1985-2020) in China, using all available Landsat images on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. First, we extracted long-term mean phenological indicators using the harmonic model, including the v3 (i.e., the date when the third leaf is fully expanded) and the maturity phases (i.e., when the dry weight of maize grains first reaches the maximum). Second, we identified the annual dynamics of phenological indicators by measuring the difference of dates when the vegetation index in a specific year reaches the same magnitude as its long-term mean. The derived maize phenology datasets agree with in-situ observations from the agricultural meteorological stations and the PhenoCam network. Besides, the derived fine-resolution phenology dataset agrees well with the MODIS phenology product regarding their spatial patterns and temporal dynamics. We observed a noticeable difference in maize phenology temporal trends before and after 2000, which is likely attributable to the change of temperature and precipitation, which further alter the farming activities. The extracted maize phenology dataset can support precise yield estimation and deepen our understanding of the response of agroecosystem to global warming in the future. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16437054 (Niu et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop yield estimation at a regional scale over a long period of time is of great significance to food security. In past decades, the integration of remote sensing observations and crop growth models has been recognized as a promising approach for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. Optical remote sensing data are susceptible to cloud and rain, while synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can penetrate through clouds and has all-weather capabilities. This allows for more reliable and consistent crop monitoring and yield estimation in terms of radar sensor data. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy for winter wheat yield estimation by assimilating time series soil moisture images, which are retrieved by a water cloud model using SAR and optical data as input, into the crop model. In this study, SAR images were acquired by C-band SAR sensors boarded on Sentinel-1 satellites and optical images were obtained from a Sentinel-2 multi-spectral instrument (MSI) for Hengshui city of Hebei province in China. Remote sensing data and ground data were all collected during the main growing season of winter wheat. Both the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from Sentinel-2, and backscattering coefficients and polarimetric indicators, computed from Sentinel-1, were used in the water cloud model to derive time series soil moisture (SM) images. To improve the prediction of crop yields at the field scale, we incorporated remotely sensed soil moisture into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm. In general, the trend of soil moisture inversion was consistent with the ground measurements, with the coefficient of determination (R2) equal to 0.45, 0.53, and 0.49, respectively, and RMSE was 9.16%, 7.43%, and 8.53%, respectively, for three observation dates. The winter wheat yield estimation results showed that the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture improved the correlation of observed and simulated yields (R2 = 0.35; RMSE =934 kg/ha) compared to the situation without data assimilation (R2 = 0.21; RMSE = 1330 kg/ha). Consequently, the results of this study demonstrated the potential and usefulness of assimilating SM retrieved from both Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI optical remote sensing data into WOFOST model for winter wheat yield estimation and could also provide a reference for crop yield estimation with data assimilation for other crop types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crop model data assimilation approach has been acknowledged as an effective tool for monitoring crop growth and estimating yield. However, the choice of assimilated variables and the mismatch in scale between remotely sensed observations and crop model-simulated state variables have various effects on the performance of yield estimation. This study aims to examine the accuracy of crop yield estimation through the joint assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (SM) and to examine the scale effect between remotely sensed data and crop model simulations. To address these issues, we proposed an improved crop data-model assimilation (CDMA) framework, which integrates LAI and SM, as retrieved from remotely sensed data, into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach for winter wheat yield estimation. The results showed that the yield estimation at a 10 m grid size outperformed that at a 500 m grid size, using the same assimilation strategy. Additionally, the winter wheat yield estimation accuracy was higher when using the bivariate data assimilation method (R2 = 0.46, RMSE = 756 kg/ha) compared to the univariate method. In conclusion, our study highlights the advantages of joint assimilating LAI and SM for crop yield estimation and emphasizes the importance of finer spatial resolution in remotely sensed observations for crop yield estimation using the CDMA framework. The proposed approach would help to develop a high-accuracy crop yield monitoring system using optical and SAR retrieved parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lodging is one of the typical abiotic adversities during paddy rice growth. In addition to affecting photosynthesis, it can seriously damage crop growth and development, such as reducing rice quality and hindering automated harvesting. It is, therefore, imperative to accurately and in good time acquire crop-lodging areas for yield prediction, agricultural insurance claims, and disaster-management decisions. However, the accuracy requirements for crop-lodging monitoring remain challenging due to complicated impact factors. Aiming at identifying paddy rice lodging on Shazai Island, Guangdong, China, caused by heavy rainfall and strong wind, a decision-tree model was constructed using multiple-parameter information from Sentinel-1 SAR images and the in situ lodging samples. The model innovatively combined the five backscattering coefficients with five polarization decomposition parameters and quantified the importance of each parameter feature. It was found that the decision-tree method coupled with polarization decomposition can be used to obtain an accurate distribution of paddy rice-lodging areas. The results showed that: (1) Radar parameters can capture the changes in lodged paddy rice. The radar parameters that best distinguish paddy rice lodging are VV, VV+VH, VH/VV, and Span. (2) Span is the parameter with the strongest feature importance, which shows the necessity of adding polarization parameters to the classification model. (3) The dual-polarized Sentinel-1 database classification model can effectively extract the area of lodging paddy rice with an overall accuracy of 84.38%, and a total area precision of 93.18%. These observations can guide the future use of SAR-based information for crop-lodging assessment and post-disaster management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and timely regional crop yield information, particularly field-level yield estimation, is essential for commodity traders and producers in planning production, growing, harvesting, and other interconnected marketing activities. In this study, we propose a novel data assimilation framework. Firstly, we construct the likelihood constraints for a process-based crop growth model based on the previous year's statistical yield and the current year's field observations. Then, we infer the posterior sets of model-simulated time-series LAI and the final yield of winter wheat with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for each meteorological data grid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (v5ERA5). Finally, we estimate the winter wheat yield at the spatial resolution of 10 m by combining Sentinel-2 LAI and the WOFOST model in Hengshui, the prefecture-level city of Hebei province of China. The results show that the proposed framework can estimate the winter wheat yield with a coefficient of determination R2 equal to 0.29 and mean absolute percentage error MAPE equal to 7.20% compared to within-field measurements. However, the agricultural stress that crop growth models cannot quantitatively simulate, such as lodging, can greatly reduce the accuracy of yield estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early-season crop identification is of great importance for monitoring crop growth and predicting yield for decision makers and private sectors. As one of the largest producers of winter wheat worldwide, China outputs more than 18 % of the global production of winter wheat. However, there are no distribution maps of winter wheat over a large spatial extent with high spatial resolution. In this study, we applied a phenology-based approach to distinguish winter wheat from other crops by comparing the similarity of the seasonal changes of satellite-based vegetation index over all croplands with a standard seasonal change derived from known winter wheat fields. Especially, this study examined the potential of early-season large-area mapping of winter wheat and developed accurate winter wheat maps with 30 m spatial resolution for 3 years (2016–2018) over 11 provinces, which produce more than 98 % of the winter wheat in China. A comprehensive assessment based on survey samples revealed producer's and user's accuracies higher than 89.30 % and 90.59 %, respectively. The estimated winter wheat area exhibited good correlations with the agricultural statistical area data at the municipal and county levels. In addition, the earliest identifiable time of the geographical location of winter wheat was achieved by the end of March, giving a lead time of approximately 3 months before harvest, and the optimal identifiable time of winter wheat was at the end of April with an overall accuracy of 89.88 %. These results are expected to aid in the timely monitoring of crop growth. The 30 m winter wheat maps in China are available via an open-data repository (DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12003990, Dong et al., 2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early season crop identification is of great importance for monitoring crop growth and predicting yield for decision-makers and private sectors. As one of the largest producers of winter wheat worldwide, China outputs more than 18% of the global production of winter wheat. However, there are no distribution maps of winter wheat over a large spatial extent with high spatial resolution. In this study, we applied a phenology-based approach to distinguish winter wheat from other crops by comparing the similarity of the seasonal changes of satellite-based vegetation index over all croplands with a standard seasonal change derived from known winter wheat fields. Especially, this study examined the potential of early season large-area mapping of winter wheat and developed accurate winter wheat maps with 30 m spatial resolution for three years (2016-2018) over eleven provinces, which produce more than 98 % of the winter wheat in China. A comprehensive assessment based on survey samples revealed producer' and user' accuracies higher than 89.30 % and 90.59 %, respectively. The winter wheat map exhibited good correspondence with the agricultural census area data at the municipal and county levels. In addition, the earliest identifiable time of the geographical location of winter wheat was achieved by the end of March, giving a lead time of approximately three months before harvest, and the optimal identifiable time of winter wheat was at the end of April with an overall accuracy of 89.88 %. These results are expected to aid in the timely monitoring of crop conditions. The 30 m winter wheat maps in China are available via an open-data repository (DOI: http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12003990, Dong et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green leaf area index (LAI) is an important variable related to crop growth. Accurate and timely information on LAI is essential for developing suitable field management strategies to mitigate risk and boost yield. Several remote sensing (RS) based methods have been recently developed to estimate LAI at the regional scale. However, the performance of these methods tends to be affected by the quality of RS data, especially when time-series LAI are required. For crop LAI estimation, supplementary growth information from crop model is helpful to address this issue. In this study, we focus on the regional-scale LAI estimations of spring maize for the entire growth season. Using time-series multispectral RS data acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and the World Food Studies (WOFOST) crop model, three methods were applied at different crop growth stages: empirical method using vegetation index (VI), data assimilation method and hybrid method. The VI-based method and assimilation method were used to generate time-series LAI estimations for the whole crop growth season. Then, a hybrid method specially for the late-stage LAI retrieval was developed by integrating WOFOST model and data assimilation. Using field-collected LAI data in Hongxing Farm in 2014, the performances of these three methods were evaluated. At the early stage, the VI-based method (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 0.16, n = 36) achieved higher accuracy than the assimilation method (R2 = 0.54, RMSE = 0.52, n = 36), whereas at the mid stage, the assimilation method (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 0.46, n = 28) showed higher accuracy than the VI-based method (R2 = 0.41, RMSE = 0.51, n = 28). At the late stage, the hybrid method yielded the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 0.46, n = 29), compared with the VI-based method (R2 = 0.19, RMSE = 0.43, n = 28) and the assimilation method (R2 = 0.20, RMSE = 0.44, n = 29). Based on the results above, we considered a combination of the three methods, i.e., the VI-based method for the early stage, the assimilation method for the mid stage, and the hybrid method for the late stage, as an ideal strategy for spring-maize LAI estimation for the entire growth season of 2014 in Hongxing Farm, and the accuracy of the combined method over the whole growth season is higher than that of any single method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous monitoring of crop growth status using time-series remote sensing image is essential for crop management and yield prediction. The growing season of summer corn in the North China Plain with the period of rain and hot, which makes the acquisition of cloud-free satellite imagery very difficult. Therefore, we focused on developing image datasets with both a high temporal resolution and medium spatial resolution by harmonizing the time-series of MOD09GA Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images and 30-m-resolution GF-1 WFV images using the improved Kalman filter model. The harmonized images, GF-1 images, and Landsat 8 images were then combined and used to monitor the summer corn growth from 5th June to 6th October, 2014, in three counties of Hebei Province, China, in conjunction with meteorological data and MODIS Evapotranspiration Data Set. The prediction residuals ( Δ P R K ) in NDVI between the GF-1 observations and the harmonized images was in the range of −0.2 to 0.2 with Gauss distribution. Moreover, the obtained phenological curves manifested distinctive growth features for summer corn at field scales. Changes in NDVI over time were more effectively evaluated and represented corn growth trends, when considered in conjunction with meteorological data and MODIS Evapotranspiration Data Set. We observed that the NDVI of summer corn showed a process of first decreasing and then rising in the early growing stage and discuss how the temperature and moisture of the environment changed with the growth stage. The study demonstrated that the synthesized dataset constructed using this methodology was highly accurate, with high temporal resolution and medium spatial resolution and it was possible to harmonize multi-source remote sensing imagery by the improved Kalman filter for long-term field monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, remote sensing (RS) research on crop growth status monitoring has gradually turned from static spectrum information retrieval in large-scale to meso-scale or micro-scale, timely multi-source data cooperative analysis; this change has presented higher requirements for RS data acquisition and analysis efficiency. How to implement rapid and stable massive RS data extraction and analysis becomes a serious problem. This paper reports on a Raster Dataset Clean & Reconstitution Multi-Grid (RDCRMG) architecture for remote sensing monitoring of vegetation dryness in which different types of raster datasets have been partitioned, organized and systematically applied. First, raster images have been subdivided into several independent blocks and distributed for storage in different data nodes by using the multi-grid as a consistent partition unit. Second, the "no metadata model" ideology has been referenced so that targets raster data can be speedily extracted by directly calculating the data storage path without retrieving metadata records; third, grids that cover the query range can be easily assessed. This assessment allows the query task to be easily split into several sub-tasks and executed in parallel by grouping these grids. Our RDCRMG-based change detection of the spectral reflectance information test and the data extraction efficiency comparative test shows that the RDCRMG is reliable for vegetation dryness monitoring with a slight reflectance information distortion and consistent percentage histograms. Furthermore, the RDCGMG-based data extraction in parallel circumstances has the advantages of high efficiency and excellent stability compared to that of the RDCGMG-based data extraction in serial circumstances and traditional data extraction. At last, an RDCRMG-based vegetation dryness monitoring platform (VDMP) has been constructed to apply RS data inversion in vegetation dryness monitoring. Through actual applications, the RDCRMG architecture is proven to be appropriate for timely vegetation dryness RS automatic monitoring with better performance, more reliability and higher extensibility. Our future works will focus on integrating more kinds of continuously updated RS data into the RDCRMG-based VDMP and integrating more multi-source datasets based collaborative analysis models for agricultural monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]