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The aim of this study is to predict and map winter wheat yield in the Parvomay municipality, situated in the Upper Thracian Lowland of Bulgaria, utilizing satellite data from Sentinel-2. The main crops grown in the research area are winter wheat, rapeseed, sunflower, and maize. To distinguish winter wheat fields accurately, we evaluated classification methods such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forest (RF). These methods were applied to satellite multispectral data acquired by the Sentinel-2 satellites during the growing season of 2020–2021. In accordance with their development cycles, temporal image composites were developed to identify suitable moments when each crop is most accurately distinguished from others. Ground truth data obtained from the integrated administration and control system (IACS) were used for training the classifiers and assessing the accuracy of the final maps. Winter wheat fields were masked using the crop mask created from the best-performing classification algorithm. Yields were predicted with regression models calibrated with in situ data collected in the Parvomay study area. Both SVM and RF algorithms performed well in classifying winter wheat fields, with SVM slightly outperforming RF. The produced crop maps enable the application of crop-specific yield models on a regional scale. The best predictor of yield was the green NDVI index (GNDVI) from the April monthly composite image. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building a more resilient food system for sustainable development and reducing uncertainty in global food markets both require concurrent and near-real-time and reliable crop information for decision making. Satellite-driven crop monitoring has become a main method to derive crop information at local, regional, and global scales by revealing the spatial and temporal dimensions of crop growth status and production. However, there is a lack of quantitative, objective, and robust methods to ensure the reliability of crop information, which reduces the applicability of crop monitoring and leads to uncertain and undesirable consequences. In this paper, we review recent progress in crop monitoring and identify the challenges and opportunities in future efforts. We find that satellite-derived metrics do not fully capture determinants of crop production and do not quantitatively interpret crop growth status; the latter can be advanced by integrating effective satellite-derived metrics and new onboard sensors. We have identified that ground data accessibility and the negative effects of knowledge-based analyses are two essential issues in crop monitoring that reduce the applicability of crop monitoring for decisions on food security. Crowdsourcing is one solution to overcome the restrictions of ground-truth data accessibility. We argue that user participation in the complete process of crop monitoring could improve the reliability of crop information. Encouraging users to obtain crop information from multiple sources could prevent unconscious biases. Finally, there is a need to avoid conflicts of interest in publishing publicly available crop information. The paper identifies the challenges and opportunities of crop monitoring with remote sensing. In-situ data accessibility and the negative effects of knowledge-based analysis are essential to reduce the applicability of crop monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This report shows the results of the first multi-year spatially distributed sensitivity analysis carried out on two complex agroecological models. Wheat is the staple food of 1.5 billion people worldwide. Projected trends in wheat global demand reveal risks of food security over the next decades. Systems for large-area crop monitoring and yield forecasting are needed to support agricultural policies, especially in developing countries. Among those crop systems, the most sophisticated ones are based on crop simulation models. Published reports of sensitivity analyses performed on different crop models show that parameters related to leaf area expansion are often considered as the most important. Here we show that, on the contrary, photosynthesis parameters are more relevant under the conditions explored. We carried out the sensitivity analysis on the models WOFOST and CropSyst for wheat simulation in Morocco. Due to the high number of model runs to be performed, a two-step procedure was adopted: The Morris method was used to identify parameters with a negligible effect, and then the Sobol method was applied on remaining parameters. Environmental and management information were obtained from the European Commission MARS database. Our results show that photosynthesis parameters explained more than 75 % of the total output variance for CropSyst and more than 70 % for WOFOST. On the contrary, parameters related to leaf area expansion were less relevant. Geographical patterns shown by sensitivity analysis results under heterogeneous conditions can help breeders to select specific plant traits, in order to develop phenotypes suitable for specific conditions, e.g., varieties with a higher level of thermal adaptation in the Southern regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural landscapes are characterized by diversity and complexity, which makes crop mapping at a regional scale a top priority for different purposes such as administrative decisions and farming management. Project 32194 of the Dragon 4 Program was implemented to meet the requirements of crop mapping, with the specific objective to develop suitable approaches for precise crop mapping with combined uses of European and Chinese high- and medium-resolution satellite images. Two sub-projects were involved in the project. The first was to focus on the use of time series high-resolution satellite data, including Sentinel-2 (S2, European satellite data) and Gaofen-1 (GF-1, Chinese satellite data), due to their similar spectral bands for Earth observation, while the second was to focus on medium-resolution data sources, i.e., the European Project for On-Board Autonomy–Vegetation (PROBA-V) and Chinese Fengyun-3 Medium Resolution Spectral Imager (FY-3 MERSI) satellite data, also due to their similar spectral channels. The approach of the European Space Agency (ESA) Sent2Agri project for crop mapping was adapted in the first sub-project and applied to the Yellow River irrigated district (YERID) of Ningxia in northwest China in order to assess its ability to accurately identify crop types in China. The goal of the second sub-project was to explore the potential of both European and Chinese medium-resolution satellite data for crop assessment in a large area. Methods to handle the data and retrieve the required information for the precise crop mapping were developed in the study, including the adaptation of the ESA approach to GF-1 data and the application of algorithms for classification. A scheme for the validation of the crop mapping was developed in the study. The results of implementing the scheme to the YERID in Ningxia indicated that the overall accuracies of crop mapping with S2 and GF-1 can be high, up to 94–97%, and the mapping had an accuracy of 88% with the PROBA-V and FY3B-MERSI data. The very high accuracy suggests the possibility of precise crop mapping with the combined use of time series high- and medium-resolution satellite data when suitable approaches are chosen to handle the data for the classification of crop types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]