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Abstract Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Background: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions: This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While there have been extensive analyses characterizing cellular and humoral responses across the severity spectrum in COVID-19, outcome predictors within severe COVID-19 remain less comprehensively elucidated. Furthermore, properties of antibodies (Abs) directed against viral antigens beyond spike and their associations with disease outcomes remain poorly defined. We perform deep molecular profiling of Abs directed against a wide range of antigenic specificities in severe COVID-19 patients. The profiles included canonical (spike [S], receptor-binding domain [RBD], and nucleocapsid [N]) and non-canonical (orf3a, orf8, nsp3, nsp13, and membrane [M]) antigenic specificities. Notably, multivariate Ab profiles directed against canonical or non-canonical antigens are equally discriminative of survival in severe COVID-19. Intriguingly, pre-pandemic healthy controls have cross-reactive Abs directed against nsp13, a protein conserved across coronaviruses. Consistent with these findings, a model built on Ab profiles for endemic coronavirus antigens also predicts COVID-19 outcome. Our results suggest the importance of studying Abs targeting non-canonical severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and endemic coronavirus antigens in COVID-19. [Display omitted] • Deep Ab profiling against different antigenic specificities in severe COVID-19 • Abs against canonical and non-canonical SARS-CoV-2 and endemic CoV antigens predict outcome • SARS-CoV-2-specific IgA and IgG3 Abs, including nsp13-specific IgA, associated with survival • Show importance of studying Ab profiles against underexplored antigenic specificities Peddireddy et al. perform deep molecular profiling of antibodies in severe COVID-19 patients and identify multivariate humoral signatures of outcome bifurcation involving canonical and non-canonical SARS-CoV-2, as well as endemic CoV antigenic specificities. Our results suggest the importance of Abs targeting non-canonical SARS-CoV-2 antigens, as well as those directed against endemic coronaviruses in favorable outcomes of severe COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]