Search

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen associated with uncommon but severe neurological complications in humans, especially among the elderly and immune-compromised. In Northeastern North America, the Culex pipiens/restuans complex and Aedes vexans are the two principal vector mosquito species/species groups of WNV. Using a 10-year surveillance dataset of WNV vector captures at 118 sites across an area of 40,000 km 2 in Eastern Ontario, Canada, the ecological niches of Cx. pipiens/restuans and Aedes vexans were modeled by random forest analysis. Spatiotemporal clusters of WNV-positive mosquito pools were identified using Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic. The study region encompasses land cover types and climate representative of highly populated Southeastern Canada. We found highest vector habitat suitability in the eastern half of the study area, where temperatures are generally warmer (variable importance > 0.40) and residential and agricultural cropland cover is more prominent (variable importance > 0.25). We found spatiotemporal clusters of high WNV infection rates around the city of Ottawa in both mosquito vector species. These results support the previous literature in the same region and elsewhere suggesting areas surrounding highly populated areas are also high-risk areas for vector-borne zoonoses such as the WNV., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Climate change is increasing the dispersion of mosquitoes and the spread of viruses of which some mosquitoes are the main vectors. In Quebec, the surveillance and management of endemic mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus or Eastern equine encephalitis, could be improved by mapping the areas of risk supporting vector populations. However, there is currently no active tool tailored to Quebec that can predict mosquito population abundances, and we propose, with this work, to help fill this gap., Methods: Four species of mosquitos were studied in this project for the period from 2003 to 2016 for the southern part of the province of Quebec: Aedes vexans (VEX), Coquillettidia perturbans (CQP), Culex pipiens-restuans group (CPR) and Ochlerotatus stimulans group (SMG) species. We used a negative binomial regression approach, including a spatial component, to model the abundances of each species or species group as a function of meteorological and land-cover variables. We tested several sets of variables combination, regional and local scale variables for landcover and different lag period for the day of capture for weather variables, to finally select one best model for each species., Results: Models selected showed the importance of the spatial component, independently of the environmental variables, at the larger spatial scale. In these models, the most important land-cover predictors that favored CQP and VEX were 'forest', and 'agriculture' (for VEX only). Land-cover 'urban' had negative impact on SMG and CQP. The weather conditions on the trapping day and previous weather conditions summarized over 30 or 90 days were preferred over a shorter period of seven days, suggesting current and long-term previous weather conditions effects on mosquito abundance., Conclusions: The strength of the spatial component highlights the difficulties in modelling the abundance of mosquito species and the model selection shows the importance of selecting the right environmental predictors, especially when choosing the temporal and spatial scale of these variables. Climate and landscape variables were important for each species or species group, suggesting it is possible to consider their use in predicting long-term spatial variationsin the abundance of mosquitoes potentially harmful to public health in southern Quebec., (© 2023. The Author(s).)