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1. Polling and Prediction in the 2016 Presidential Election.

Author

Valentino, Nicholas A., King, John Leslie, and Hill, Walter W.

Subjects
UNITED States presidential election, 2016, EXIT polling (Elections), SAMPLING (Process), EXPERIMENTAL design, MATHEMATICAL models
Abstract

In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter models were probably most responsible. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Published
2017
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