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In many situations, social norms govern behavior. While the existence of a norm may be clear to someone entering the situation, it is often less clear precisely what behavior is required in order to comply with the norm. We investigate how people react to uncertainty about the prevailing norm using a modified version of the dictator game. Since the behavioral effects of social norms are tightly linked to the degree of anonymity in a situation, we also vary the extent to which subjects’ behavior is observable. We find that when behavior is anonymous, uncertainty about which norm guides partners reduces aggregate norm compliance. However, when others can observe behavior, introducing a small degree of norm uncertainty increases aggregate norm compliance. This implies that norm uncertainty may actually facilitate interaction as long as behavior is observable and uncertainty is sufficiently small. We also document that reactions to norm uncertainty are heterogeneous with one group of people reacting to norm uncertainty by increasing compliance (over-compliers), while another group reacts by reducing compliance (under-compliers). The main effect of increased observability operates through the intensive margin of the under-compliers; they reduce their negative reaction to norm uncertainty when their actions become more visible.

We report results from a large field experiment that with a few hours prior notice provided Danish residential consumers with dynamic price and environmental signals aimed at causing them to shift their consumption either into or away from certain hours of the day. The same marginal price signal is found to cause substantially larger consumption shifts into target hours compared to consumption shifts away from target hours. Consumption is also reduced in the hours of the day before and after these into target hours and there is weaker evidence of increased consumption in the hours surrounding away target hours. The same into versus away results hold for the environmental signals, although the absolute size of the effects are smaller. Using detailed household-level demographic information for all customers invited to participate in the experiment, both models are re-estimated accounting for this decision. For both the price and environmental treatments, the same qualitative results are obtained, but with uniformly smaller quantitative magnitudes. These selection-corrected estimates are used to perform a counterfactual experiment where all of the retailer's residential customers are assumed to face these dynamic price signals. We find substantial wholesale energy cost savings for the retailer from declaring into events designed to shift consumption from high demand periods to low demand periods within the day, which suggests that such a pricing strategy could significantly reduce the cost of increasing the share of greenhouse gas free wind and solar electricity production in an electricity supply industry.

In theory real time pricing ensures more efficient electricity markets than time of use pricing. However, people are prone to habits and regularity, so real time pricing may impose a greater cost of reacting on consumers. In a randomized field experiment we compared the cost of reacting to incentives under these two pricing regimes. We utilized smart-metered hourly power consumption to unobtrusively measure treatment effects. We found that real time pricing reduces consumer surplus from reacting to incentives by half, compared to reacting under a corresponding time of use pricing regime. This suggests a substantial economic value to households of the regularity and predictability provided by time of use pricing.

The increasing deployment of renewables introduces substantial variability into the production of electricity, requiring demand to be more movable across time. We analyze data from a large Danish fi eld experiment (2015-2016) to investigate whether households can be prompted, via SMS messages, to move electricity consumption, and if so, whether these are motivated by pecuniary or environmental motives. To take heterogeneity fully into account we fi rst use general-to-speci c-based automatic model selection which allows for a different time-series regression for each of the 1488 households studied. From this we obtain a cross-section of estimated SMS effects which we then regress on the motive type. Since households can opt out there is a risk of self-selection. We therefore control for the size, income and average consumption of the household, and the age, educational- and labor market status of the SMS recipient. The results suggest that SMS messages can to some extent motivate households to move consumption. A stronger fi nancial motive seems more effective, whereas a purely environmental motive actually reduces the displaced amount. However, mixing financial and environmental motives seems the most effective. Finally, women and elderly people are more inclined to move consumption.

People are prone to habits but how important are they for economic outcomes? In a randomized field experiment we compare two treatments with identical economic incentives to adjust a range of household production activities. Treatments only differ in the extent to which they allow households to adjust habits relevant for these activities. We utilize smart-metered hourly power consumption to unobtrusively measure treatment effects. We find that preventing habits from being adjusted reduces consumer surplus by 76% suggesting a substantial economic value of habits.

In this paper, we study regulation of externalities involving many small-scale polluters, where the damages from emissions depend on the polluters’ locations. Examples include nutrient and pesticide emissions from farms, particulate emissions from vehicles and home heating units, emissions of hazardous chemical compounds from small business etc. With such emission problems, regulatory authorities often apply a combination of firm-level, possibly differentiated standards for ‘cleaner’ technologies, and market-level, undifferentiated dirty input regulations. We establish general principles for how such regulations should be designed and combined. We find that the optimal regulation design crucially depends on the type of cleaner technologies available to polluters. If these are ‘emission capturing’, optimal technology standards encourage the use of cleaner technologies in both high and low damage areas, while if they are ‘input displacing’, optimal technology regulation encourages cleaner technologies in high damage areas, but discourages their use in low damage areas. Regulation should always discourage the use of dirty input and the optimal regulation intensity may be substantial, particularly if the available cleaner technologies are input displacing.

This paper shows that political attitudes are linked to cooperative behavior in an incentivized experiment with a large sample randomly drawn from the Danish population. However, this relationship depends on the way the experiment is framed. In the standard game in which subjects give to a public good, contributions are the same regardless of political attitudes. In an economically equivalent version, in which subjects take from a public good, left-wingers cooperate significantly more than subjects in the middle or to the right of the political spectrum. Through simulation techniques we find that this difference in the framing effect across political point of views is to some extent explained by differences in beliefs and basic cooperation preferences.

The Ethiopian food for work program typically induces forest conservation work. While economic outcomes have been studied before, little is known about the program's environmental impact. We run a choice experiment among Ethiopian farmers eliciting preferences in a hypothetical afforestation program that mimics the Ethiopian food-for-work program. We find that introducing food incentives decreases willingness to participate in the program and participation rate increases with an increase in the proportion of individuals selected for food incentive. We also find that the crowding-out effect is stronger when food incentive recipients are selected based on income compared to lottery-based selection. Our data points to pro-social signaling as the most likely channel for the crowding-out effect. These results suggest that (1) food-for-work programs could have unintended negative environmental effects and (2) directions for design reform that could mitigate this.

Theoretical papers find that taxes are preferred over individual transferable quotas (ITQs) when fisheries regulators are uncertain about either biological growth or the extent of non-compliance with regulations. However, the size of the welfare gain from switching to taxes has not previously been investigated empirically. Based on estimated profit and growth functions, we simulate this gain for the Danish cod fishery in the Kattegat and find a welfare gain of less than 2%. We also develop a simple indicator which can be used to approximate the welfare gain of switching to tax regulation for other fisheries. The value of the indicator is calculated for a number of fisheries worldwide for which the necessary data have been published and we find that the gain from a switch to taxes is typically between 1.5% and 2.5% (in no case greater than 4.2%). We, therefore, conclude that the switch to tax regulation of fisheries, which has been recommended in prior theoretical literature, is of little practical importance.

Air pollution is a major global challenge. Emissions from residential wood-burning stoves make a surprisingly large contribution to total air pollution related health costs. In Denmark, emissions from wood-burning stoves are calculated to cause almost 400 premature deaths each year within Denmark and additionally about 300 premature deaths in other parts of Europe. In this article, we present an integrated assessment of the net social benefit of different schemes for regulating wood-burning stoves including bans and taxes. The assessment uses high resolution air pollution emission inventory, and atmospheric dispersion and exposure models to estimate the health effects of imposing regulations on residential wood-burning. This is combined with an economic stove investment and use model to simulate reactions to regulations and evaluate compliance costs. We find that there are large net welfare gains from most types of regulation, but the largest gains result from imposing a differentiated tax or a general ban on older stoves. The results for Denmark suggest that there could be substantial welfare gains from regulating residential wood-burning stoves in other countries as well. Air pollution is a major global challenge. Emissions from residential wood-burning stoves make a surprisingly large contribution to total air pollution related health costs. In Denmark, emissions from wood-burning stoves are calculated to cause almost 400 premature deaths each year within Denmark and additionally about 300 premature deaths in other parts of Europe. In this article, we present an integrated assessment of the net social benefit of different schemes for regulating wood-burning stoves including bans and taxes. The assessment uses high resolution air pollution emission inventory, and atmospheric dispersion and exposure models to estimate the health effects of imposing regulations on residential wood-burning. This is combined with an economic stove investment and use model to simulate reactions to regulations and evaluate compliance costs. We find that there are large net welfare gains from most types of regulation, but the largest gains result from imposing a differentiated tax or a general ban on older stoves. The results for Denmark suggest that there could be substantial welfare gains from regulating residential wood-burning stoves in other countries as well.

Regulating externalities from the use of common resources is often hampered by the regulator's inability to accurately observe individual firms' resource use. Allocating resource use through taxes on aggregate use, which often can be observed, has been suggested (Segerson, 1988); however, these taxes are vulnerable to collusion and strategic behavior and they generate inefficient entry-exit incentives. To address these disadvantages, I suggest using a Montero (2008)-type auction mechanism to allocate licenses for unobserved use of common resources and to induce compliance with these licenses through an enforcement tax on the differences between aggregated licenses issued and observed aggregated resource use.

We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds the potential loss from predicted climate change.

In this paper, we propose a reputation-signalling model of demand for consumer goods containing pro-social characteristics such as a ‘fair trade’ or ‘organic’ certification. We show that reputation signalling can reverse price reactions resembling the crowding-out of pre-existing motives for pro-social behavior seen in situations of volunteering and charitable giving. Finally, using a unique combination of questionnaire and purchase panel data, we present evidence of such reputation-driven reversal of price reactions in the Danish market for organic milk. In this paper, we propose a reputation-signalling model of demand for consumer goods containing pro-social characteristics such as a ‘fair trade’ or ‘organic’ certification. We show that reputation signalling can reverse price reactions resembling the crowding-out of pre-existing motives for pro-social behavior seen in situations of volunteering and charitable giving. Finally, using a unique combination of questionnaire and purchase panel data, we present evidence of such reputation-driven reversal of price reactions in the Danish market for organic milk.

All previous studies of organic food demand that investigating substitution focus on specific food submarkets and have to assume separability from other food consumption. However, consumers typically associate attributes such as e.g. healthiness and environment friendliness with organic variants of most types of food. If such general organic attributes are important for consumer behaviour then separability may not hold because the general attribute obtained from one type of organic food may be a close or even perfect substitute for the same attribute obtained from other types of organic food. In this paper we utilize a unique Danish micro panel where all food demand is registered on a disaggregated level with an organic/non-organic indicator to estimate a general food demand system with organic variants. We clearly reject the usual separability assumption and find that the behaviour of Danish consumers is consistent with them perceiving such general organic attributes. In addition estimation of a general demand system makes calculation of economy wide organic price elasticities and other insights into the structure of organic food demand possible.

We investigate framing effects in a large-scale public good experiment. We measure indicators of explanations previously proposed in the literature, which when combined with the large sample, enable us to estimate a structural model of framing effects. The model captures potential causal effects and the behavioral heterogeneity of cooperation variability. We find that framing only has a small effect on the average level of cooperation but a substantial effect on behavioral heterogeneity and we show that this can be explained almost exclusively by a corresponding change in the heterogeneity of beliefs about other subjects' behavior. Preferences are on the other hand stable between frames.

Weitzman (2002) studies the regulation of a fishery characterised by constant marginal harvest costs and shows that price regulation performs better than quantity regulation when the regulator is uncertain about the biological reproduction function (ecological uncertainty). Here, we initially illustrate that this result does not generalise to a search fishery, where marginal costs are allowed to depend on harvest. Hansen et al (2008) study a fishery where non-compliance with regulations is a problem. When the regulator is uncertain about non-compliance (compliance uncertainty), then landing fees are the preferred type of regulation, and Hansen et al (2008) find that this result does generalise to a search fishery where marginal costs depend on harvest. In this paper, we simulate a stochastic stock-recruitment model for the Danish cod fishery in the Kategat capturing both ecological and compliance uncertainty. We find that the gain from eliminating compliance uncertainty may be up to 5% of gross profit while the gain from eliminating ecological uncertainty is minimal. Under landing fee regulation, the entire gain from eliminating both types of uncertainty is captured, even if the regulator's stock measurement is uncertain. However, most of this gain can be captured within an ITQ system if the regulator is able to measure stocks accurately.

In this paper we investigate if people cheat more when they observe their peers cheating because they conform or because they become aware that cheating is something to actively consider. In our experiment subjects toss a coin in private and report the outcome (white or black). We reward only those who report white and leave them the possibility to cheat without being discovered. In our 2x2 experimental design, we manipulated subjects' report sheet to i) suggest (or not) that cheating is an option; ii) suggest that their peers were honest (or dishonest). We find that increasing awareness of cheating as an option significantly increases the probability that women cheat; whereas men – who are already aware that cheating is an option - are not affected. When we suggest that peers have cheated, men cheat significantly more, whereas women do not.

Renewable natural resources (like water, fish and wildlife stocks, forests and grazing lands) are critical for the livelihood of millions of people and understanding how they can be managed efficiently is an important economic problem. I show how regulator uncertainty about different economic and ecological parts of the harvesting system affect the optimal choice of instrument for regulating harvesters. I bring prior results into a unified framework and add to these by showing that: 1) quotas are preferred under ecological uncertainty if there are substantial diseconomies of scale in harvesting, 2) that a pro-quota result under uncertainty about prices and marginal costs is unlikely, requiring that the resource growth function is highly concave locally around the optimum and, 3) that quotas are always preferred if uncertainly about underlying structural economic parameters dominates. These results showing that quotas are preferred in a number of situations qualify the pro fee message dominating prior studies.

In many parts of Europe and North America, phosphorus loss from cultivated fields is threatening natural ecosystems. Though there are similarities to other non-point agricultural emissions like nitrogen that have been studied extensively, phosphorus is often characterised by the presence of large stocking capacities for phosphorus in farm soils and long time-lags between applications and emission. This makes it important to understand the dynamics of the phosphorus emission problem when designing regulatory systems. Using a model that reflects these dynamics, we evaluate alternative regulatory systems. Depending on the proportions of different types of farms in the agricultural sector, we find that an input-output tax system may be close to efficient, or in other cases must be supplemented with subsidy and manure reallocation schemes.

Earlier studies have found that a substantial part of the contributions in public good games can be explained by subjects misperceiving the game's incentives. Using a large-scale public good experiment, we show that subtle changes in how the game is framed substantially affect such misperceptions and that this explains major parts of framing effect on subjects' behavior. When controlling for the different levels of misperception between frames, the framing effect on subjects' cooperation preferences disappears.

In many developing countries, groundwater is a common pool resource which is potentially subject to the tragedy of the commons if water extraction is not adequately regulated. However, in these countries, the regulatory infrastructure is often too weak to allow detailed monitoring of individual groundwater extraction. For this reason, classical public intervention instruments, such as consumption fees or tradable quotas, are infeasible. Here we present a theoretical foundation for a new public regulatory instrument that can potentially generate the same efficiency inducing incentives as fees and tradable quotas, but without their information and monitoring requirements. The instrument we propose is a tax based on aggregate extraction, rather than individual extraction measures.

In this paper we undertake a systematic investigation of instrument choice when preventing a population collapse rather than maximizing industry profit is the overriding concern. Contrary to what seems to be the general consensus we find that landing fees do provide more effective insurance against extinction than quotas under more or less the same conditions as those implying that landing fees are better at maximising industry profit. Thus, the efficiency of the regulatory instrument mainly depends on the basic information asymmetries characterizing the fishery, and is not sensitive to whether the regulators total catch goals are set according to economic or precautionary principles.

Experimental evidence of the effect of providing cheap energy saving technology to households is sparse. We present results from a field experiment in which autopoweroff plugs are provided free of charge to randomly selected households. We use propensity score matching to find treatment effects on metered electricity consumption for different types of households. We find effects for single men and couples without children, while we find no effect for single women and households with children. We suggest that this could be because of differences in saving potential (e.g. some households do not have appliances where using a plug is relevant), differences in the skills relevant for installing the technology and differences in the willingness to spend time and effort on installation. We conclude that targeting interventions at more responsive households, and tailoring interventions to target groups, can increase efficiency of programmes.

Quotas or permits are frequently used in the management of renewable resources and emissions. However, in many industries there is concern about the basic e ectiveness of quotas due to non-compliance. We develop an enforcement model of a quota-regulated resource and focus on a situation with signi cant non-compliance and exogenous constraints on nes and enforcement budget. We propose a new enforcement system based on self-reporting of excess extraction and explicit di erentiation of inspection rates based on compliance history. In particular, we use state-dependent enforcement to induce rms to self-report excess extraction. We show that such system increases the e ectiveness of quota management by allowing the regulator to implement a wider range of aggregate extraction targets than under traditional enforcement, while ensuring an efficient allocation of aggregate extraction. In addition, inspection costs can be reduced without reductions in welfare.

Some multi-species fisheries are characterised by production jointness in the sense that several species are caught through a joint production process (literally in the same haul of the net). Other multi-species fisheries (so called purse seine fisheries) are specialized in the sense that species are targeted individually and by-catch is negligible, but over the fishing season the same boat chooses to target several species with varying intensity which also results in a sort of jointness. Both types of fisheries are typically modelled using standard multi-input multi-output profit function forms (e.g. translog, normalized quadratic). In this paper we argue that jointness in the latter, essentially separable fishery is caused by allocation of fishing days input among harvested species. We developed a structural model of a multi-species fishery where the allocation of fishing days input causes production jointness. We estimate the model for the Norwegian purse seine fishery and find that it is characterised by non-jointness, while estimations for this fishery using the standard multi-input multi-output profit function imply jointness.

Despite the strong and persistent influence of Gary Becker's marriage model, the model does not completely explain the observed correlation between married women's labor market participation and overall divorce rates. In this paper we show how a simple sociologically inspired extension of the model realigns the model's predictions with the observed trends. The extension builds on Becker's own claim that partners match on preference for partner specialization, and, as a novelty, on additional sociological theory claiming that preference coordination tend to happen subconsciously. When we incorporate this aspect into Becker's model, the model provides predictions of divorce rates and causes that fit more closely with empirical observations.

This study develops a dynamic multi-output model of farmers' crop allocation decisions that allows estimation of both short-run and long-run adjustments to a wide array of economic incentives. The method can be used to inform decision-makers about a number of issues including agricultural policy reform and environmental regulation. The model allows estimation of dynamic effects relating to price expectations adjustment, investment lags and crop rotation constraints. Estimation is based on micro-panel data from Danish farmers that includes acreage, output and variable input utilisation at the crop level. Results indicate that there are substantial differences between the shortrun and long-run land allocation behaviour of Danish farmers and that there are substantial differences in the time lags associated with different crops. Since similar farming conditions are found in northern Europe and parts of the USA and Canada, this result may have more general interest.

Real life implies that public procurement contracting of renewable resources results in repeated interaction between a principal and the agents. The present paper analyses ratchet effects in contracting of renewable resources and how the presence of a resource constraint alters the “standard” ratchet effect result. We use a linear reward scheme to influence the incentives of the agents. It is shown that for some renewable resources we might end up both with more or with less pooling in the first-period compared to a situation without a resource constraint. The reason is that the resource constraint implies a smaller performance de-pendent bonus, which reduces the first-period cost from concealing information but at the same time the resource constraint may also imply that second-period benefits from this concealment for the efficient agent are reduced. In situations with high likelihood of first-period pooling, the appropriateness of applying lin-ear incentive schemes can be questioned.