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In the last decade, with the increased concerns about the global environment, attempts have been made to promote the replacement of fossil fuels with sustainable sources. For transport, which accounts for around a quarter of total greenhouse gas emissions, meeting climate neutrality goals will require replacing existing fleets with electric or hydrogen-propelled vehicles. However, the lack of adequate decision support approach makes the introduction of new propulsion technologies in the transportation sector a complex strategic decision problem where distorted non-optimal decisions may easily result in long-term negative effects on the performance of logistic operators. This research addresses the problem of transport fleet renewal by proposing a multi-criteria decision-making approach and takes into account the multiple propulsion technologies currently available and the objectives of the EU Green Deal, as well as the inherent scenario uncertainty. The proposed approach, based on the TOPSIS model, involves a novel decision framework referred to as a generalized life cycle evaluation of the environmental and cost objectives, which is necessary when comparing green and traditional propulsion systems in a long-term perspective to avoid distorted decisions. Since the objective of the study is to provide a practical methodology to support strategic decisions, the framework proposed has been validated against a practical case referred to the strategic fleet renewal decision process. The results obtained demonstrate how the decision maker's perception of the technological evolution of the propulsion technologies influences the decision process, thus leading to different optimal choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade, with the increased concerns about the global environment, attempts have been made to promote the replacement of fossil fuels with sustainable sources. For transport, which accounts for around a quarter of total greenhouse gas emissions, meeting climate neutrality goals will require replacing existing fleets with electric or hydrogen-propelled vehicles. However, the lack of adequate decision support approach makes the introduction of new propulsion technologies in the transportation sector a complex strategic decision problem where distorted non-optimal decisions may easily result in long-term negative effects on the performance of logistic operators. This research addresses the problem of transport fleet renewal by proposing a multi-criteria decision-making approach and takes into account the multiple propulsion technologies currently available and the objectives of the EU Green Deal, as well as the inherent scenario uncertainty. The proposed approach, based on the TOPSIS model, involves a novel decision framework referred to as a generalized life cycle evaluation of the environmental and cost objectives, which is necessary when comparing green and traditional propulsion systems in a long-term perspective to avoid distorted decisions. Since the objective of the study is to provide a practical methodology to support strategic decisions, the framework proposed has been validated against a practical case referred to the strategic fleet renewal decision process. The results obtained demonstrate how the decision maker’s perception of the technological evolution of the propulsion technologies influences the decision process, thus leading to different optimal choices.

Abstract The option of decarbonizing urban freight transport using battery electric vehicle (BEV) seems promising. However, there is currently a strong debate whether fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) might be the better solution. The question arises as to how a fleet of FCEV influences the operating cost, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy demand in comparison to BEVs and to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). To investigate this, we simulate the urban food retailing as a representative share of urban freight transport using a multi-agent transport simulation software. Synthetic routes as well as fleet size and composition are determined by solving a vehicle routing problem. We compute the operating costs using a total cost of ownership analysis and the use phase emissions as well as primary energy demand using the well to wheel approach. While a change to BEV results in 17–23% higher costs compared to ICEV, using FCEVs leads to 22–57% higher costs. Assuming today’s electricity mix, we show a GHG emission reduction of 25% compared to the ICEV base case when using BEV. Current hydrogen production leads to a GHG reduction of 33% when using FCEV which however cannot be scaled to larger fleets. Using current electricity in electrolysis will increase GHG emission by 60% compared to the base case. Assuming 100% renewable electricity for charging and hydrogen production, the reduction from FCEVs rises to 73% and from BEV to 92%. The primary energy requirement for BEV is in all cases lower and for higher compared to the base case. We conclude that while FCEV have a slightly higher GHG savings potential with current hydrogen, BEV are the favored technology for urban freight transport from an economic and ecological point of view, considering the increasing shares of renewable energies in the grid mix.

The option of decarbonizing urban freight transport using battery electric vehicle (BEV) seems promising. However, there is currently a strong debate whether fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) might be the better solution. The question arises as to how a fleet of FCEV influences the operating cost, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy demand in comparison to BEVs and to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). To investigate this, we simulate the urban food retailing as a representative share of urban freight transport using a multi-agent transport simulation software. Synthetic routes as well as fleet size and composition are determined by solving a vehicle routing problem. We compute the operating costs using a total cost of ownership analysis and the use phase emissions as well as primary energy demand using the well to wheel approach. While a change to BEV results in 17–23% higher costs compared to ICEV, using FCEVs leads to 22–57% higher costs. Assuming today's electricity mix, we show a GHG emission reduction of 25% compared to the ICEV base case when using BEV. Current hydrogen production leads to a GHG reduction of 33% when using FCEV which however cannot be scaled to larger fleets. Using current electricity in electrolysis will increase GHG emission by 60% compared to the base case. Assuming 100% renewable electricity for charging and hydrogen production, the reduction from FCEVs rises to 73% and from BEV to 92%. The primary energy requirement for BEV is in all cases lower and for higher compared to the base case. We conclude that while FCEV have a slightly higher GHG savings potential with current hydrogen, BEV are the favored technology for urban freight transport from an economic and ecological point of view, considering the increasing shares of renewable energies in the grid mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]