1. Derivation of a prediction model for a diagnosis of depression in young adults: a matched case-control study using electronic primary care records.
- Author
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Nichols L, Ryan R, Connor C, Birchwood M, and Marshall T
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Age Factors, Case-Control Studies, Depression complications, Early Diagnosis, Female, Humans, Logistic Models, Male, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Young Adult, Depression diagnosis, Electronic Health Records statistics & numerical data, Models, Psychological, Primary Health Care, Prodromal Symptoms
- Abstract
Background: Approximately 80 000 children and young people in the UK suffer from depression, but many are untreated because of poor identification of early warning signs and risk factors., Aims: This study aimed to derive and to investigate discrimination characteristics of a prediction model for a first recorded diagnosis of depression in young people aged 15-24 years., Method: This study used a matched case-control method using electronic primary care records. Stepwise conditional logistic regression modelling investigated 42 potential predictors including symptoms, co-morbidities, social factors and drug and alcohol misuse., Results: Of the socio-economic and symptomatic predictors identified, the strongest associations were with depression symptoms and other psychological conditions. School problems and social services involvement were prominent predictors in men aged 15-18 years, work stress in women aged 19-24 years., Conclusion: Our model is a first step in the development of a predictive model identifying early warning signs of depression in young people in primary care., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)
- Published
- 2018
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