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[Objective] The present paper aimed to reveal the landscape pattern evolution and driving factors of karst rocky desertification area, and provide a reference for optimizing the land landscape pattern, rocky desertification control and regional sustainable development in the demonstration area. [Method] Taking the typical Karst Plateau Bijie Salaxi demonstration area as the research object, the remote sensing images of three key time periods were selected, including ETM in 2005, 2010 and OLI in 2015. 3 S technology and landscape index analysis method were employed to study landscape pattern and the driving factors. [Result] The main landscape of the study area was cultivated land, followed by shrub forest. The changes of landscape transfer were mainly manifested in the transformation from cultivated land to forest, grassland and construction land, which accounted for 73. 31 % and 24. 75 % of the cultivated land transfer respectively in 2010; By 2015, they accounted for 79. 80 % and 19. 99 % respectively. At the landscape type level, the fragmentation degree of cultivated land, forestland and shrub land was increasing, and the fragmentation degree of grassland and construction land increased first and then decreased. Except for the unused land, the landscape patch shape tended to be complicated. In the overall level of the landscape, the landscape of demonstration area had developed in the direction of fragmentation, complexity, discretization and homogenization in the last 10 years. [Conclusion] The implementation of rocky desertification control project, urbanization construction and land abandonment were the main factors leading to the change of landscape pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape change is a dynamic feature of landscape structure and function over time which is usually affected by natural and human factors. The evolution of rocky desertification is a typical landscape change that directly affects ecological environment governance and sustainable development. Guizhou is one of the most typical subtropical karst landform areas in the world. Its special karst rocky desertification phenomenon is an important factor affecting the ecological environment and limiting sustainable development. In this paper, remote sensing imagery and machine learning methods are utilized to model and analyze the spatiotemporal variation of rocky desertification in Guizhou. Based on an improved CA-Markov model, rocky desertification scenarios in the next 30 years are predicted, providing data support for exploration of the evolution rule of rocky desertification in subtropical karst areas and for effective management. The specific results are as follows: (1) Based on the dynamic degree, transfer matrix, evolution intensity, and speed, the temporal and spatial evolution of rocky desertification in Guizhou from 2001 to 2020 was analyzed. It was found that the proportion of no rocky desertification (NRD) areas increased from 48.86% to 63.53% over this period. Potential rocky desertification (PRD), light rocky desertification (LRD), middle rocky desertification (MRD), and severe rocky desertification (SRD) continued to improve, with the improvement showing an accelerating trend after 2010. (2) An improved CA-Markov model was used to predict the future rocky desertification scenario; compared to the traditional CA-Markov model, the Lee–Sallee index increased from 0.681 to 0.723, and figure of merit (FOM) increased from 0.459 to 0.530. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) From 2001 to 2020, the evolution speed of PRD was the fastest, while that of SRD was the slowest. Rocky desertification control should not only focus on areas with serious rocky desertification, but also prevent transformation from NRD to PRD. (2) Rocky desertification will continue to improve over the next 30 years. Possible deterioration areas are concentrated in high-altitude areas, such as the south of Bijie and the east of Liupanshui. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]