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1. Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study

Author

Wolfgang Vogel, M. Blachier, Lelia Thornton, Wim Laleman, Ieva Tolmane, Antonio Craxì, Mojca Matičič, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Christoph Sarrazin, Laura Harcouet, Joël Mossong, Ilias Gountas, Matthew E. Cramp, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Soo Aleman, Lyudmila Mateva, Ann-Sofi Duberg, Vratislav Nemecek, Jordan Genov, Michael Manns, Anne Øvrehus, Irena Hrstić, Kimberly Murphy, Stefano Vella, Krzysztof Tomasiewicz, Francesco Negro, Nina Weis, Antonio Javier Blasco, Agita Jeruma, Karolin Falconer, Danute Speiciene, Jonas Valantinas, Jose Luis Calleja, Jan Sperl, Gabor Horvath, Filipe Calinas, Peter Jarcuska, Jerneja Videčnik-Zorman, Ivan Schréter, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, Christophe Moreno, Sergeja Gregorčič, Angelos Hatzakis, Pierre Van Damme, Riina Salupere, Massimo Colombo, Robert J. de Knegt, Peter J Smit, Dijana Nonkovic, Daniela K van Santen, Waldemar Halota, Rui Sarmento-Castro, Jean-Michel Delile, Suzanne Norris, Vana Sypsa, Robert Flisiak, Carole Seguin-Devaux, Martin Lagging, Liana Gheorghe, Mihály Makara, Javier García-Samaniego, Christophe Hézode, Jennifer Kieran, Marian Oltman, Peter Stärkel, Victor de Ledinghen, Pablo Lázaro, Stefan Zeuzem, E. A. Croes, Patrick Hoffmann, Matti Maimets, Francesco Saverio Mennini, Kostas Athanasakis, Chris Estes, Stephen D. Ryder, Sarah Robbins, Françoise Roudot-Thoraval, Martin Kåberg, Kaarlo Simojoki, Sona Frankova, Adrian Goldis, Marietta Simonova, Kyriakos Souliotis, Ken Pasini, Homie Razavi, Rui Tato Marinho, Sarah Blach, Pavol Kristian, Rumiana Mitova, Loreta A. Kondili, Maria Buti, Helen Nde, Boris Lukšić, Henrik Krarup, Dominique Vandijck, Henk W. Reesink, David A. M. C. van de Vijver, Iskren Kotzev, Jessie Gunter, Adriaan J. van der Meer, Martti Färkkilä, Baiba Rozentale, Perttu Arkkila, Krasimir Antonov, Jan Gerstoft, Béla Hunyady, Peer Brehm Christensen, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Valentina Liakina, Michael Gschwantler, Deian Jelev, Tatjana Reic, George V. Papatheodoridis, Jonathan Schmelzer, Daniel Struck, Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Razavi, Homie, Robbins, Sarah, Zeuzem, Stefan, Negro, Francesco, Buti, Maria, Duberg, Ann-Sofi, Roudot-Thoraval, Françoise, Craxi, Antonio, Manns, Michael, Marinho, Rui T, Hunyady, Bela, Colombo, Massimo, Aleman, Soo, Antonov, Krasimir, Arkkila, Perttu, Athanasakis, Kosta, Blach, Sarah, Blachier, Martin, Blasco, Antonio J, Calinas, Filipe, Calleja, Jose L, Christensen, Peer B, Cramp, Matthew E, Croes, Esther, de Knegt, Robert J, de Ledinghen, Victor, Delile, Jean-Michel, Estes, Chri, Falconer, Karolin, Färkkilä, Martti, Flisiak, Robert, Frankova, Sona, Gamkrelidze, Ivane, García-Samaniego, Javier, Genov, Jordan, Gerstoft, Jan, Gheorghe, Liana, Goldis, Adrian, Gountas, Ilia, GregorÄ iÄ , Sergeja, Gschwantler, Michael, Gunter, Jessie, Halota, Waldemar, Harcouet, Laura, Hézode, Christophe, Hoffmann, Patrick, Horvath, Gabor, Hrstic, Irena, JarÄ uÅ¡ka, Peter, Jelev, Deian, Jeruma, Agita, KÃ¥berg, Martin, Kieran, Jennifer, Kondili, Loreta A, Kotzev, Iskren, Krarup, Henrik, Kristian, Pavol, Lagging, Martin, Laleman, Wim, Lázaro, Pablo, Liakina, Valentina, LukÅ¡iÄ , Bori, Maimets, Matti, Makara, Mihály, Mateva, Lyudmila, Maticic, Mojca, Mennini, Francesco S, Mitova, Rumiana, Moreno, Christophe, Mossong, Joel, Murphy, Kimberly, Nde, Helen, Nemecek, Vratislav, Nonkovic, Dijana, Norris, Suzanne, Oltman, Marian, à vrehus, Anne L H, Papatheodoridis, George, Pasini, Ken, Razavi-Shearer, Devin, Razavi-Shearer, Kathryn, Reesink, Henk W, Reic, Tatjana, Rozentale, Baiba, Ryder, Stephen D, Salupere, Riina, Sarmento-Castro, Rui, Sarrazin, Christoph, Schmelzer, Jonathan D, Schréter, Ivan, Seguin-Devaux, Carole, Simojoki, Kaarlo, Simonova, Marietta, Smit, Peter J, Souliotis, Kyriako, Speiciene, Danute, Sperl, Jan, Stärkel, Peter, Struck, Daniel, Sypsa, Vana, Thornton, Lelia, Tolmane, Ieva, Tomasiewicz, Krzysztof, Valantinas, Jona, Van Damme, Pierre, van de Vijver, David, van der Meer, Adriaan J, van Santen, Daniela, Van Vlierberghe, Han, Vandijck, Dominique, Vella, Stefano, VideÄ nik-Zorman, Jerneja, Vogel, Wolfgang, Weis, Nina, Hatzakis, Angelos, European Union HCV Collaborators, and Faculteit Medische Wetenschappen/UMCG

Subjects
Pediatrics, ddc:616.07, medicine.disease_cause, 0302 clinical medicine, Cost of Illness, Epidemiology, Prevalence, EPIDEMIOLOGY, 030212 general & internal medicine, Settore SECS-P/01 - Economia Politica, CIRRHOSIS, media_common, ddc:616, Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use, education.field_of_study, INJECT DRUGS, Gastroenterology, HCV INFECTION, virus diseases, Hepatitis C, Emigration and Immigration, DISEASE BURDEN, Markov Chains, Emigration and Immigration/statistics & numerical data, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, Viral hepatitis, Modelling, Eradication, European Union, prevalence, COUNTRIES, medicine.medical_specialty, Hepatitis C virus, Population, UNITED-STATES, World Health Organization, Antiviral Agents, 03 medical and health sciences, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, PEOPLE, Internal medicine, Intervention (counseling), medicine, Journal Article, media_common.cataloged_instance, Humans, Viremia, European union, Disease Eradication, education, Hepatitis C/diagnosis/drug therapy/epidemiology/prevention & control, Hepatology, business.industry, Viremia/diagnosis/drug therapy/epidemiology/prevention & control, medicine.disease, Virology, PREVENTION, digestive system diseases, Human medicine, VIRAL-HEPATITIS, business
Abstract

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000–3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0·64% (95% UI 0·41–0·74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000–1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36·4%), 150 000 (12 000–180 000) were treated (4·6% of the total infected population or 12·7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000–160 000) were cured (4·1%), and 57 900 (43 900–67 300) were newly infected (1·8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600–42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary. Funding Gilead Sciences.

Published
2017

2. Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015:a modelling study

Author

Hans Van Vlierberghe, Soo Aleman, Naveed Z. Janjua, Henry Lik-Yuen Chan, Olufunmilayo A. Lesi, Irena Hrstić, Abdullah M. Assiri, William Rosenberg, Moon sing Lai, Vladimir Chulanov, Jan Sperl, Beat Müllhaupt, Michael Manns, William Sievert, Sabahattin Kaymakoglu, Cesar Yaghi, Evy Yunihastuti, Pierre Van Damme, Jon G. Jonasson, Antonio Javier Blasco, Young Sik Kim, S. Olafsson, Rohani Jahis, Christoph Sarrazin, Manik Sharma, Aasim Yusuf, Omer Hajelssedig, Javier García-Samaniego, Boris Lukšić, Peter Stärkel, Stefan Zeuzem, Stephen Oguche, E. A. Croes, Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Richard Njouom, CE Omuemu, Carlos E Brandão Mello, Adam Mahomed, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Ogu Omede, Said A. Al-Busafi, Sarah Robbins, Peer Brehm Christensen, Ammal M. Metwally, Béla Hunyady, Gamal Esmat, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Maheeba Abdulla, Suzanne Norris, Sarah Blach, Harald Hofer, Maria C Mendes Correa, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Matti Maimets, Chien-Jen Chen, Peter Jarcuska, Marian Oltman, Francesco Negro, Ilias Gountas, Ayman Yosry, Sona Frankova, Adrian Goldis, Laurentius A. Lesmana, Ivan Schréter, Danute Speiciene, Kevork M. Peltekian, Berhane Redae, Stuart K. Roberts, Valentina Liakina, Seyed M Alavian, Wai-cheung C Lao, Ziv Ben-Ari, Imad Al Ghazzawi, Cheryl Brunton, Rudolf E. Stauber, Akram Khan, Tung-Hung Su, Manal H El-Sayed, Kimberly Murphy, Kyriakos Souliotis, Adriana Vince, Ramazan Idilman, Christophe Moreno, Angelos Hatzakis, Lewis R. Roberts, Richard Phillips, Jason Grebely, Michael Gschwantler, Hugo Cheinquer, Vana Sypsa, Samir Shah, Wolfgang Vogel, M. Blachier, Abate Bane, Henri Leleu, Saeed Hamid, Ohene Opare-Sem, Hamad Al-Romaihi, Wan-Long Chuang, Alexander J. Thompson, Agita Jeruma, Robert Flisiak, Catherine A.M. Stedman, Ingo van Thiel, Carole Seguin-Devaux, Jonathan Schmelzer, Juan F.Sanchez Avila, Rui Tato Marinho, Muhammad S. Memon, Nina Weis, Rosmawati Mohamed, Florian Bihl, Moon Seok Choi, David Kershenobich, Vic Arendt, Yee Tak Hui, Mei Hsuan Lee, N. N. Pimenov, Saad Al Kaabi, Ken Pasini, Henrik Krarup, Stefan Mauss, Shahin Merat, Khalid Al Namaani, Rong-Nan Chien, Perttu Arkkila, Henk W. Reesink, Françoise Roudot-Thoraval, Paul Marotta, Shirley Owusu-Ofori, Fadi H. Mourad, Abdul Rahman Bizri, Chris Estes, Heiner Wedemeyer, Faisal M. Sanai, Mihály Makara, Stephen D. Ryder, Mel Krajden, Laura Cisneros, Adriaan J. van der Meer, Eli Zuckerman, Matthew E. Cramp, Rui Sarmento-Castro, Magnus Gottfredsson, Gregory J. Dore, Huma Qureshi, Yasser Kamel, Olga Sagalova, Rifaat Safadi, Wim Laleman, Solomon Obekpa, Karolin Falconer, Edward Gane, Philip Bruggmann, Fernando Bessone, Jia-Horng Kao, Daniel Lavanchy, Riina Salupere, Anne Øvrehus, Ulus Salih Akarca, Monique Andersson, Man-Fung Yuen, Ala I. Sharara, Olav Dalgard, Homie Razavi, Gamal Shiha, Paulo R. Ferreira, George V. Papatheodoridis, Anatoly Shevaldin, Jawad Khamis, Waseem Hamoudi, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, Vincent Ws Wong, Loreta A. Kondili, Maria Lucia Gomes Ferraz, Wasim Jafri, Pablo Lázaro, Faisal Abaalkhail, David H. Muljono, Youssif Al Serkal, Imam Waked, Zaher Koutoubi, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Nahum Méndez-Sánchez, Abraham O. Malu, Daniel Struck, Helen Nde, Alnoor Ramji, Ahmed Abdou, Antoine Abou Rached, Michael Li, Diana Nonković, Jorge Daruich, Ezequiel Ridruejo, Gül Ergör, Ann-Sofi Duberg, Krzysztof Tomasiewicz, Filipe Calinas, Hossein Poustchi, Layla Al-Dabal, Jessie Gunter, Mark W. Sonderup, Colm Bergin, Mario G. Pessoa, Jonas Valantinas, Asad Chaudhry, Junko Tanaka, Tsendsuren S. Oyunsuren, Soek Siam Tan, Vivek A. Saraswat, Young-Suk Lim, Ibrahim Altraif, Victor de Ledinghen, Faryal Al Lawati, Mette Rye Clausen, Ieva Tolmane, Antonio Craxì, Abdulrahman Aljumah, Elmoubashar Farag, Inka Aho, Sayed Himatt, Nishi Prabdial-Sing, Blach S., Zeuzem S., Manns M., Altraif I., Duberg A.-S., Muljono D.H., Waked I., Alavian S.M., Lee M.-H., Negro F., Abaalkhail F., Abdou A., Abdulla M., Abou Rached A., Aho I., Akarca U., Al Ghazzawi I., Al Kaabi S., Al Lawati F., Al Namaani K., Al Serkal Y., Al-Busafi S.A., Al-Dabal L., Aleman S., Alghamdi A.S., Aljumah A.A., Al-Romaihi H.E., Andersson M.I., Arendt V., Arkkila P., Assiri A.M., Baatarkhuu O., Bane A., Ben-Ari Z., Bergin C., Bessone F., Bihl F., Bizri A.R., Blachier M., Blasco A.J., Brandao Mello C.E., Bruggmann P., Brunton C.R., Calinas F., Chan H.L.Y., Chaudhry A., Cheinquer H., Chen C.-J., Chien R.-N., Choi M.S., Christensen P.B., Chuang W.-L., Chulanov V., Cisneros L., Clausen M.R., Cramp M.E., Craxi A., Croes E.A., Dalgard O., Daruich J.R., De Ledinghen V., Dore G.J., El-Sayed M.H., Ergor G., Esmat G., Estes C., Falconer K., Farag E., Ferraz M.L.G., Ferreira P.R., Flisiak R., Frankova S., Gamkrelidze I., Gane E., Garcia-Samaniego J., Khan A.G., Gountas I., Goldis A., Gottfredsson M., Grebely J., Gschwantler M., Guimaraes Pessoa M., Gunter J., Hajarizadeh B., Hajelssedig O., Hamid S., Hamoudi W., Hatzakis A., Himatt S.M., Hofer H., Hrstic I., Hui Y.-T., Hunyady B., Idilman R., Jafri W., Jahis R., Janjua N.Z., Jarcuska P., Jeruma A., Jonasson J.G., Kamel Y., Kao J.-H., Kaymakoglu S., Kershenobich D., Khamis J., Kim Y.S., Kondili L., Koutoubi Z., Krajden M., Krarup H., Lai M.-S., Laleman W., Lao W.-C., Lavanchy D., Lazaro P., Leleu H., Lesi O., Lesmana L.A., Li M., Liakina V., Lim Y.-S., Luksic B., Mahomed A., Maimets M., Makara M., Malu A.O., Marinho R.T., Marotta P., Mauss S., Memon M.S., Mendes Correa M.C., Mendez-Sanchez N., Merat S., Metwally A.M., Mohamed R., Moreno C., Mourad F.H., Mullhaupt B., Murphy K., Nde H., Njouom R., Nonkovic D., Norris S., Obekpa S., Oguche S., Olafsson S., Oltman M., Omede O., Omuemu C., Opare-Sem O., Ovrehus A.L.H., Owusu-Ofori S., Oyunsuren T.S., Papatheodoridis G., Pasini K., Peltekian K.M., Phillips R.O., Pimenov N., Poustchi H., Prabdial-Sing N., Qureshi H., Ramji A., Razavi-Shearer D., Razavi-Shearer K., Redae B., Reesink H.W., Ridruejo E., Robbins S., Roberts L.R., Roberts S.K., Rosenberg W.M., Roudot-Thoraval F., Ryder S.D., Safadi R., Sagalova O., Salupere R., Sanai F.M., Sanchez Avila J.F., Saraswat V., Sarmento-Castro R., Sarrazin C., Schmelzer J.D., Schreter I., Seguin-Devaux C., Shah S.R., Sharara A.I., Sharma M., Shevaldin A., Shiha G.E., Sievert W., Sonderup M., Souliotis K., Speiciene D., Sperl J., Starkel P., Stauber R.E., Stedman C., Struck D., Su T.-H., Sypsa V., Tan S.-S., Tanaka J., Thompson A.J., Tolmane I., Tomasiewicz K., Valantinas J., Van Damme P., Van Der Meer A.J., Van Thiel I., Van Vlierberghe H., Vince A., Vogel W., Wedemeyer H., Weis N., Wong V.W.S., Yaghi C., Yosry A., Yuen M.-F., Yunihastuti E., Yusuf A., Zuckerman E., Razavi H., Polaris Observ HCV Collaborators, Negro, Francesco, and Ege Üniversitesi

Subjects
Viremia/epidemiology, Population ageing, medicine.medical_specialty, CIENCIAS MÉDICAS Y DE LA SALUD, Delphi Technique, Genotype, Voxilaprevir, Genotype, Global Health, Hepatitis C, Eradication, Modelling study, Medicina Clínica, ddc:616.07, Global Health, Bioinformatics, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Cost of Illness, Epidemiology, Journal Article, medicine, Global health, Prevalence, Humans, Viremia, 030212 general & internal medicine, Disease Eradication, Disease burden, ddc:616, Hepatology, Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology, business.industry, Gastroenterology, Hepatitis C, Glecaprevir, Hepatitis C, Chronic, medicine.disease, Viremia/epidemiology/genetics, Pibrentasvir, Global Health/statistics & numerical data, HCV, HEPATITIS C, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, Medicina Critica y de Emergencia, Human medicine, business, Chronic/epidemiology/genetics/prevention & control, Demography
Abstract

WOS: 000426979400014, PubMed ID: 28404132, Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of-and expansion on-the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64-103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1.0% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8-1.1) in 2015, corresponding to 71.1 million (62.5-79.4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections., John C Martin Foundation, John C Martin Foundation.

Published
2017

3. Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus infection disease burden - volume 3

Author

M. T. Barakat, N. Nugrahini, Andri Sanityoso Sulaiman, S. El Khoury, Béla Hunyady, Y. Al Serkal, Liana Gheorghe, E. S. El Hassan, K. Saeed, M. Siddiq, H. Tarifi, A. Abdou, Homie Razavi, Fadi H. Mourad, Abdul Rahman Bizri, Do Young Kim, Matti Maimets, Devin Razavi-Shearer, S. Gregorcic, Ibrahim Altraif, Chris Estes, A. Salamat, Hamad I. Al-Ashgar, Riina Salupere, Sarah Blach, R. Husni, A. Sibley, F. Al Hosani, P. Aldins, S. Alawadhi, A. Baqir, S. Priohutomo, Mihály Makara, A. Abourached, A. Löve, Ieva Tolmane, Saeed Hamid, B. Karlsdottir, Adrian Goldis, Abdulrahman Aljumah, Samsuridjal Djauzi, Almoutaz Hashim, Laurentius A. Lesmana, Khalid Alswat, Jon G. Jonasson, Danute Speiciene, Young-Suk Lim, Arif Nawaz, M. Taha, R. Al-Hakeem, Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Rino Alvani Gani, Young Seok Kim, Abdullah M. Assiri, J. Videčnik-Zorman, A. Al Rifai, A. Sanityoso Sulaiman, Muhammad S. Memon, H. Fridjonsdottir, M. A. Al Mulla, Faisal M. Sanai, Faisal Abaalkhail, L. Al-Dabal, R. A. Sayegh, A. M. Siddiqui, Gabor Horvath, Moon Suk Choi, Cesar Yaghi, M. Sadik, Irsan Hasan, A. Almessabi, S. Fakhry, Zaigham Abbas, Ala I. Sharara, Evy Yunihastuti, Jacques E Mokhbat, David H. Muljono, Jonas Valantinas, Asad Chaudhry, K. Al Jaberi, H. Al Quraishi, B. Sigurdardottir, Altaf Alam, Mohamed A. Babatin, N. Andrea, F. Al Braiki, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, Reza Malekzadeh, H. Qureshi, G. Sigmundsdottir, Marwa Sultan, Jonathan Schmelzer, Javed Iqbal Farooqi, Mojca Matičič, Junko Tanaka, S. Olafsson, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Shahin Merat, M. Alzaabi, Valentina Liakina, Adel Alqutub, Seyed M Alavian, G. Tayyab, M. Al Khatry, T. Diab, M. Ud Din, Jessie Gunter, Kwang Hyub Han, Faleh Z. Al-Faleh, Bader Faiyaz Zuberi, Wasim Jafri, P. Rassam, Magnus Gottfredsson, Baiba Rozentale, Agita Jeruma, A. Ghafoor Khan, M. Umar, Ottar M. Bergmann, Z. Koutoubi, and M. A. Yusuf

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Cure rate, Pediatrics, Asia, Adolescent, Hepatitis C virus, medicine.disease_cause, Antiviral Agents, Infection disease, Middle East, Young Adult, Virology, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, Child, Disease burden, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Harm reduction, Models, Statistical, Hepatology, business.industry, Diagnostic Tests, Routine, Incidence, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Hepatitis C, Chronic, Middle Aged, Treatment efficacy, Drug Utilization, Surgery, Liver Transplantation, Europe, Infectious Diseases, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control, Female, Birth cohort, business
Abstract

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995).

Published
2015

4. The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

Author

Altaf Alam, K. Saeed, N. Nugrahini, Fadi H. Mourad, Andri Sanityoso Sulaiman, Abdul Rahman Bizri, Jon G. Jonasson, Liana Gheorghe, S. Alawadhi, Ala I. Sharara, Sarah Blach, Rino Alvani Gani, Do Young Kim, M. Alzaabi, Young Seok Kim, Matti Maimets, S. Priohutomo, A. Löve, Saeed Hamid, Abdullah M. Assiri, H. Al Quraishi, Adel Alqutub, G. Tayyab, Junko Tanaka, H. Qureshi, A. Salamat, P. Aldins, M. S. Choi, M. T. Barakat, Reza Malekzadeh, M. Sadik, Kwang Hyub Han, Young-Suk Lim, J. Videčnik-Zorman, A. Abdou, Jacques E Mokhbat, Zaigham Abbas, Khalid Alswat, G. Sigmundsdottir, B. Karlsdottir, Marwa Sultan, K. Al Jaberi, Devin Razavi-Shearer, A. Al Rifai, Chris Estes, Abdullah S. Alghamdi, A. Sanityoso Sulaiman, Béla Hunyady, F. Al Braiki, B. Sigurdardottir, Ieva Tolmane, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, S. El Khoury, Gabor Horvath, Y. Al Serkal, M. Taha, Hamad I. Al-Ashgar, Cesar Yaghi, Abdulrahman Aljumah, Danute Speiciene, Riina Salupere, Irsan Hasan, S. Fakhry, Homie Razavi, Evy Yunihastuti, F. Al Hosani, M. A. Al Mulla, Faisal M. Sanai, Mohamed A. Babatin, N. Andrea, L. Al-Dabal, S. Gregorcic, Arif Nawaz, R. Al-Hakeem, E. S. El Hassan, R. Husni, M. Siddiq, David H. Muljono, Adrian Goldis, A. Almessabi, Jonathan Schmelzer, Mojca Maticic, Laurentius A. Lesmana, A. Baqir, Ibrahim Altraif, Faisal Abaalkhail, Shahin Merat, Mihály Makara, A. Abourached, Jonas Valantinas, Asad Chaudhry, T. Diab, M. Ud Din, Muhammad S. Memon, Jessie Gunter, R. A. Sayegh, Seyed Moayed Alavian, A. M. Siddiqui, H. Fridjonsdottir, Bader Faiyaz Zuberi, M. Umar, Magnus Gottfredsson, Baiba Rozentale, Agita Jeruma, Samsuridjal Djauzi, Almoutaz Hashim, A. Ghafoor Khan, Ottar M. Bergmann, Z. Koutoubi, M. A. Yusuf, H. Tarifi, A. Sibley, Faleh Z. Al-Faleh, Wasim Jafri, P. Rassam, J. I. Farooqi, S. Olafsson, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Valentina Liakina, M. Al Khatry, Ctr Dis Anal, Natl Liver Inst, JW Goethe Univ Hosp, Univ Calgary, Ankara Univ, Hosp Santo Antonio Capuchos, Med Univ Innsbruck, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Hop Henri Mondor, Adv Tech Hlth Serv Res TAISS, Ege Univ, Karolinska Inst, Karolinska Univ Hosp, Univ Leipzig, Osped Cantonale, Univ Montreal, Fed Univ State Rio de Janeiro, Arud Ctr Addict Med, Hosp Valle de Hebron, Hosp Puerta Hierro, Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Odense Univ Hosp, Reg Hosp Hovedstaden, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Univ Plymouth, Univ New S Wales, Cairo Univ, Orebro Univ Hosp, Univ Orebro, Ain Shams Univ, Dokuz Eylul Univ, Exigo Consultores, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Inst Clin & Expt Med, Hosp Carlos III, Univ Copenhagen, Direccao Geral Saude, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Wilhelminenspital Stadt Wien, Med Univ Vienna, Masaryk Univ, Univ Manitoba, Hlth Sci Ctr, European Liver Patients Assoc, Istanbul Univ, Univ British Columbia, Aalborg Univ Hosp, Katholieke Univ Leuven, Hosp Santa Maria, Univ Western Ontario, Univ Dusseldorf, Univ Libre Brussels, Univ Hosp, Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Univ Southhampton, Dalhousie Univ & Hepatol Serv, Assembleia Republ, Alfred Hosp, Monash Univ, UCL, Nottingham Univ Hosp NHS Trust, Biomed Res Unit, Ctr Hosp Porto, Cantonal Hosp St Gallen, Univ Toronto, Egyptian Liver Res Inst & Hosp, Monash Hlth, Catholic Univ Louvain, Med Univ Graz, St Vincents Hosp, Univ Melbourne, Charles Univ Prague, Cent Mil Hosp, Univ Antwerp, Deutsch Leberhilfe eV, Ghent Univ Hosp, Univ Ghent, Hannover Med Sch, Copenhagen Univ Hosp, Univ Zurich Hosp, Bihl, Florian, Negro, Francesco, and Semela, David

Subjects
Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, diagnosis, Cost effectiveness, Hepatitis C virus, prevalence, ddc:616.07, medicine.disease_cause, disease burden, Liver disease, Virology, Epidemiology, medicine, Disease burden, ddc:616, treatment, Hepatology, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Hepatitis C, medicine.disease, mortality, Infectious Diseases, HCV, Immunology, incidence, epidemiology, Human medicine, hepatitis C, Viral hepatitis, business
Abstract

Gilead Sciences The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. in addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing. Ctr Dis Anal, Louisville, CO 80027 USA Natl Liver Inst, Menoufia, Egypt JW Goethe Univ Hosp, Frankfurt, Germany Univ Calgary, Liver Unit, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Calgary, AB, Canada Ankara Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Sch Med, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey Hosp Santo Antonio Capuchos, Dept Gastroenterol, Ctr Hosp Lisboa Cent, Lisbon, Portugal Med Univ Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria Univ São Paulo, Sch Med, São Paulo, Brazil Hop Henri Mondor, Serv Hepatogastroenterol, F-94010 Creteil, France Adv Tech Hlth Serv Res TAISS, Madrid, Spain Ege Univ, Izmir, Turkey Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Huddinge, Stockholm, Sweden Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol Infect Dis, Stockholm, Sweden Ankara Univ, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey Univ Leipzig, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany Osped Cantonale, Dept Gastroenterol, Bellinzona, Switzerland Univ Montreal, Dept Med, Liver Unit, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada Fed Univ State Rio de Janeiro, Dept Gastroenterol, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Arud Ctr Addict Med, Zurich, Switzerland Hosp Valle de Hebron, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain Hosp Puerta Hierro, Madrid, Spain Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Hosp Clin, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil Odense Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark Reg Hosp Hovedstaden, Copenhagen, Denmark Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Clin Med, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Univ Plymouth, Peninsula Sch Med & Dent, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England Univ New S Wales, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia Cairo Univ, Cairo, Egypt Orebro Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Orebro, Sweden Univ Orebro, Sch Hlth & Med Sci, SE-70182 Orebro, Sweden Ain Shams Univ, Cairo, Egypt Dokuz Eylul Univ, Izmir, Turkey Karolinska Inst, Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Med Huddinge, Infect Dis Unit, Stockholm, Sweden Exigo Consultores, Alhos Vedros, Portugal Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Gastroenterol, São Paulo, Brazil Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Infect Dis, São Paulo, Brazil Inst Clin & Expt Med, Dept Hepatogastroenterol, Prague, Czech Republic Hosp Carlos III, CIBERehd, Madrid, Spain Univ Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark Direccao Geral Saude, Lisbon, Portugal Univ Estadual Campinas, Disciplina Doencas Infecciosas, Dept Clin Med, Grp Estudo Hepatites,Fac Ciencias Med,UNICAMP, São Paulo, Brazil Wilhelminenspital Stadt Wien, Dept Internal Med 4, Vienna, Austria Univ São Paulo, Sch Med, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, São Paulo, Brazil Med Univ Vienna, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Dept Internal Med 3, Vienna, Austria Masaryk Univ, Univ Hosp Brno, Clin Infect Dis, Brno, Czech Republic Univ Manitoba, Dept Internal Med, Sect Hepatol, Winnipeg, MB, Canada Hlth Sci Ctr, Viral Hepatitis Invest Unit, Winnipeg, MB, Canada European Liver Patients Assoc, St Truiden, Belgium Istanbul Univ, Istanbul, Turkey Univ British Columbia, British Columbia Ctr Dis Control, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada Aalborg Univ Hosp, Dept Med Gastroenterol, Aalborg, Denmark Aalborg Univ Hosp, Sect Mol Diagnost, Aalborg, Denmark Katholieke Univ Leuven, Univ Hosp Leuven, Louvain, Belgium Hosp Santa Maria, Dept Gastroenterol, Ctr Hosp Lisboa Norte, Lisbon, Portugal Univ Western Ontario, Div Gastroenterol, London, ON, Canada Univ Dusseldorf, Dusseldorf, Germany Univ Libre Brussels, Erasme Univ Hosp, Brussels, Belgium Univ Hosp, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Geneva, Switzerland Univ Hosp, Div Clin Pathol, Geneva, Switzerland Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Natl Reference Lab Hepatitis, Prague, Czech Republic Univ Southhampton, Southampton, England Dalhousie Univ & Hepatol Serv, Capital Dist Hlth Author, Queen Elizabeth II Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Med, Halifax, NS, Canada Dalhousie Univ & Hepatol Serv, Capital Dist Hlth Author, Queen Elizabeth II Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Surg, Halifax, NS, Canada Univ British Columbia, Dept Gastroenterol, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada Assembleia Republ, Lisbon, Portugal Alfred Hosp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Monash Univ, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia UCL, Div Med, UCL Inst Liver & Digest Hlth, London, England Hop Henri Mondor, Dept Sante Publ, F-94010 Creteil, France Nottingham Univ Hosp NHS Trust, Nottingham, England Biomed Res Unit, Nottingham, England Ctr Hosp Porto, Dept Infect Dis, Oporto, Portugal Cantonal Hosp St Gallen, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, St Gallen, Switzerland Univ Toronto, Toronto Gen Hosp, Univ Hlth Network, Toronto, ON M5G 1L7, Canada Egyptian Liver Res Inst & Hosp, Dakahliah, Egypt Monash Hlth, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Catholic Univ Louvain, Clin Univ St Luc, Brussels, Belgium Med Univ Graz, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Dept Internal Med, Graz, Austria St Vincents Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Charles Univ Prague, Dept Internal Med, Fac Med 1, Prague, Czech Republic Cent Mil Hosp, Prague, Czech Republic Univ Antwerp, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium Deutsch Leberhilfe eV, Cologne, Germany Ghent Univ Hosp, Ghent, Belgium Univ Ghent, Belgium Hasselt Univ, Dept Hlth Econ & Patient Safety, Diepenbeek, Belgium Hannover Med Sch, Dept Gastroenterol Hepatol & Endocrinol, Hannover, Germany Copenhagen Univ Hosp, Hvidovre, Denmark Univ New S Wales, St George Hosp Clin Sch Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia Univ New S Wales, Sch Med Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia Univ Zurich Hosp, Swiss HPB Hepatopancreatobiliary Ctr, CH-8091 Zurich, Switzerland Univ Zurich Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, CH-8091 Zurich, Switzerland Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Gastroenterol, São Paulo, Brazil Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Infect Dis, São Paulo, Brazil Web of Science

Published
2014

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