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Hypothesis generation is a critical, but challenging, step in a foodborne outbreak investigation. The pathogens that contaminate food have many diverse reservoirs, resulting in seemingly limitless potential vehicles. Identifying a vehicle is particularly challenging for clusters detected through national pathogen-specific surveillance, because cases can be geographically dispersed and lack an obvious epidemiologic link. Moreover, state and local health departments could have limited resources to dedicate to cluster and outbreak investigations. These challenges underscore the importance of hypothesis generation during an outbreak investigation. In this review, we present a framework for hypothesis generation focusing on 3 primary sources of information, typically used in combination: 1) known sources of the pathogen causing illness; 2) person, place, and time characteristics of cases associated with the outbreak (descriptive data); and 3) case exposure assessment. Hypothesis generation can narrow the list of potential food vehicles and focus subsequent epidemiologic, laboratory, environmental, and traceback efforts, ensuring that time and resources are used more efficiently and increasing the likelihood of rapidly and conclusively implicating the contaminated food vehicle., (© Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2021. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: In 2017, we conducted a multistate investigation to determine the source of an outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 infections, which occurred primarily in children., Methods: We defined a case as infection with an outbreak strain of STEC O157:H7 with illness onset between January 1, 2017, and April 30, 2017. Case patients were interviewed to identify common exposures. Traceback and facility investigations were conducted; food samples were tested for STEC., Results: We identified 32 cases from 12 states. Twenty-six (81%) cases occurred in children <18 years old; 8 children developed hemolytic uremic syndrome. Twenty-five (78%) case patients ate the same brand of soy nut butter or attended facilities that served it. We identified 3 illness subclusters, including a child care center where person-to-person transmission may have occurred. Testing isolated an outbreak strain from 11 soy nut butter samples. Investigations identified violations of good manufacturing practices at the soy nut butter manufacturing facility with opportunities for product contamination, although the specific route of contamination was undetermined., Conclusions: This investigation identified soy nut butter as the source of a multistate outbreak of STEC infections affecting mainly children. The ensuing recall of all soy nut butter products the facility manufactured, totaling >1.2 million lb, likely prevented additional illnesses. Prompt diagnosis of STEC infections and appropriate specimen collection aids in outbreak detection. Child care providers should follow appropriate hygiene practices to prevent secondary spread of enteric illness in child care settings. Firms should manufacture ready-to-eat foods in a manner that minimizes the risk of contamination., Competing Interests: POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2019 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.)

Population-based case-control studies are a time- and labor-intensive component of foodborne outbreak investigations. One alternative is a binomial trial that asks the question "if the likelihood of each case's having eaten a given food is no different from that of the average person in the population, how often would we find, by chance alone, that x of n (or more) cases would have eaten this food?" Calculating a binomial trial requires background exposure data. We conducted case-control studies and binomial trials in two foodborne outbreaks and compared results. In both outbreaks, using binomial trials we found much less than a 5% probability that the number of cases eating the suspected food vehicle would have occurred by chance. These results were comparable with results of the case-control studies, but with considerably less effort. When background exposure data are available, binomial trials are an efficient way to explore hypotheses that can be further tested by traceback efforts to identify a common source.

A cluster of Salmonella Paratyphi B variant L(+) tartrate(+) infections with indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns was detected in October 2015. Interviews initially identified nut butters, kale, kombucha, chia seeds and nutrition bars as common exposures. Epidemiologic, environmental and traceback investigations were conducted. Thirteen ill people infected with the outbreak strain were identified in 10 states with illness onset during 18 July-22 November 2015. Eight of 10 (80%) ill people reported eating Brand A raw sprouted nut butters. Brand A conducted a voluntary recall. Raw sprouted nut butters are a novel outbreak vehicle, though contaminated raw nuts, nut butters and sprouted seeds have all caused outbreaks previously. Firms producing raw sprouted products, including nut butters, should consider a kill step to reduce the risk of contamination. People at greater risk for foodborne illness may wish to consider avoiding raw products containing raw sprouted ingredients.

Introduction: Molecular subtyping of pathogens is critical for foodborne disease outbreak detection and investigation. Many clusters initially identified by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) are not confirmed as point-source outbreaks. We evaluated characteristics of clusters that can help prioritize investigations to maximize effective use of limited resources., Materials and Methods: A multiagency collaboration (FoodNet) collected data on Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157 clusters for 3 years. Cluster size, timing, extent, and nature of epidemiologic investigations were analyzed to determine associations with whether the cluster was identified as a confirmed outbreak., Results: During the 3-year study period, 948 PFGE clusters were identified; 849 (90%) were Salmonella and 99 (10%) were E. coli O157. Of those, 192 (20%) were ultimately identified as outbreaks (154 [18%] of Salmonella and 38 [38%] of E. coli O157 clusters). Successful investigation was significantly associated with larger cluster size, more rapid submission of isolates (e.g., for Salmonella, 6 days for outbreaks vs. 8 days for nonoutbreaks) and PFGE result reporting to investigators (16 days vs. 29 days, respectively), and performance of analytic studies (completed in 33% of Salmonella outbreaks vs. 1% of nonoutbreaks) and environmental investigations (40% and 1%, respectively). Intervals between first and second cases in a cluster did not differ significantly between outbreaks and nonoutbreaks., Conclusions: Molecular subtyping of pathogens is a rapidly advancing technology, and successfully identifying outbreaks will vary by pathogen and methods used. Understanding criteria for successfully investigating outbreaks is critical for efficiently using limited resources.

Importance: This large outbreak of foodborne salmonellosis demonstrated the complexity of investigating outbreaks linked to poultry products. The outbreak also highlighted the importance of efforts to strengthen food safety policies related to Salmonella in chicken parts and has implications for future changes within the poultry industry., Objective: To investigate a large multistate outbreak of multidrug resistant Salmonella Heidelberg infections., Design: Epidemiologic and laboratory investigations of patients infected with the outbreak strains of Salmonella Heidelberg and traceback of possible food exposures., Setting: United States. Outbreak period was March 1, 2013 through July 11, 2014., Patients: A case was defined as illness in a person infected with a laboratory-confirmed Salmonella Heidelberg with 1 of 7 outbreak pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) XbaI patterns with illness onset from March 1, 2013 through July 11, 2014. A total of 634 case-patients were identified through passive surveillance; 200/528 (38%) were hospitalized, none died., Results: Interviews were conducted with 435 case-patients: 371 (85%) reported eating any chicken in the 7 days before becoming ill. Of 273 case-patients interviewed with a focused questionnaire, 201 (74%) reported eating chicken prepared at home. Among case-patients with available brand information, 152 (87%) of 175 patients reported consuming Company A brand chicken. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was completed on 69 clinical isolates collected from case-patients; 67% were drug resistant, including 24 isolates (35%) that were multidrug resistant. The source of Company A brand chicken consumed by case-patients was traced back to 3 California production establishments from which 6 of 7 outbreak strains were isolated., Conclusions: Epidemiologic, laboratory, traceback, and environmental investigations conducted by local, state, and federal public health and regulatory officials indicated that consumption of Company A chicken was the cause of this outbreak. The outbreak involved multiple PFGE patterns, a variety of chicken products, and 3 production establishments, suggesting a reservoir for contamination upstream from the production establishments. Sources of bacteria and genes responsible for resistance, such as farms providing birds for slaughter or environmental reservoir on farms that raise chickens, might explain how multiple PFGE patterns were linked to chicken from 3 separate production establishments and many different poultry products., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Thirty years of suicide rates for Guam were analyzed by age, sex, period, and cohort. Youth suicide increased rapidly in the 1990s; certain cohorts have higher rates. Four explanatory factors are discussed, including ecological factors and migration from the Federated States of Micronesia. Direct and indirect suicide contagion followed the death by suicide of a respected politician, strongly influencing period and cohort patterns. Suicide pacts inflated suicide among young people. These factors acted in combination to produce epidemic levels of suicide in the 1990s.