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Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8×10−4 (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0]×10−4). This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900–4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known not to be proportional one to another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Mexico, estimates of Chagas disease prevalence and burden vary widely. Updating surveillance data is therefore an important priority to ensure that Chagas disease does not remain a barrier to the development of Mexico's most vulnerable populations. Methodology/Principal findings: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to analyze the literature on epidemiological surveys to estimate Chagas disease prevalence and burden in Mexico, during the period 2006 to 2017. A total of 2,764 articles were screened and 36 were retained for the final analysis. Epidemiological surveys have been performed in most of Mexico, but with variable study scale and geographic coverage. Based on studies reporting confirmed cases (i.e. using at least 2 serological tests), and taking into account the differences of sample sizes, the national estimated seroprevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection was 3.38% [95%CI 2.59–4.16], suggesting that there are 4.06 million cases in Mexico. Studies focused on pregnant women, which may transmit the parasite to their newborn during pregnancy, reported an estimated seroprevalence of 2.21% [95%CI 1.46–2.96], suggesting that there are 50,675 births from T. cruzi infected pregnant women per year, and 3,193 cases of congenitally infected newborns per year. Children under 18 years had an estimated seropositivity rate of 1.51% [95%CI 0.77–2.25], which indicate ongoing transmission. Cases of T. cruzi infection in blood donors have also been reported in most states, with a national estimated seroprevalence of 0.55% [95%CI 0.43–0.66]. Conclusions/Significance: Our analysis suggests a disease burden for T. cruzi infection higher than previously recognized, highlighting the urgency of establishing Chagas disease surveillance and control as a key national public health priority in Mexico, to ensure that it does not remain a major barrier to the economic and social development of the country's most vulnerable populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]