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1. Disability trajectories by progression independent of relapse activity status differ in pediatric, adult and late-onset multiple sclerosis.

Author

Simone M, Lucisano G, Guerra T, Paolicelli D, Rocca MA, Brescia Morra V, Patti F, Annovazzi P, Gasperini C, De Luca G, Ferraro D, Margari L, Granella F, Pozzilli C, Romano S, Perini P, Bergamaschi R, Coniglio MG, Lus G, Vianello M, Lugaresi A, Portaccio E, Filippi M, Amato MP, and Iaffaldano P

Subjects
Humans, Male, Female, Adult, Child, Young Adult, Adolescent, Recurrence, Middle Aged, Longitudinal Studies, Italy, Follow-Up Studies, Registries, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting physiopathology, Disease Progression, Age of Onset, Disability Evaluation, Multiple Sclerosis physiopathology
Abstract

Background: To compare Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) trajectories over time between Multiple Sclerosis (MS) groups with pediatric (POMS), adult (AOMS) and late (LOMS) onset, and between patients with and without progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA)., Methods: Patients with a first visit within 1 year from onset, ≥ 5-year follow-up and ≥ 1 visit every 6 months were selected from the Italian MS Register. Adjusted disability trajectories were assessed by longitudinal models for repeated measures. Comparisons between groups and between patients with and without PIRA in subgroups were performed by evaluating the yearly differences of mean EDSS score changes versus baseline (delta-EDSS). A first CDA event was defined as a 6-months confirmed disability increase from study baseline, measured by EDSS (increase ≥ 1.5 points with baseline EDSS = 0; ≥ 1.0 with baseline EDSS score ≤ 5.0 and ≥ 0.5 point with baseline EDSS > 5.5). PIRA was defined as a CDA event occurring more than 90 days after and more than 30 days before the onset of a relapse., Results: 3777 MS patients (268 POMS, 3282 AOMS, 227 LOMS) were included. The slope of disability trajectories significantly diverged in AOMS vs POMS starting from the second year of follow-up (Year 2: delta2-EDSS 0.18 (0.05; 0.31), p = 0.0054) and then mean delta2-EDSS gradually increased up to 0.23 (0.07; 0.39, p = 0.004) at year 5. Patients with PIRA had significant (p < 0.0001) steeper increase in EDSS scores than those without PIRA in all groups, although in POMS, the disability trajectories began to diverge later and at a lesser extent with delta-EDSS score of 0.48 vs 0.83 in AOMS and 1.57 in LOMS, at 3 years after the first PIRA., Conclusions: Age is relevant in determining disability progression in MS. POMS shows a less steep increase in EDSS scores over time than older patients. The effect of PIRA in accelerating EDSS progression is less pronounced in POMS than in AOMS and LOMS., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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2. Active and non-active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis patients exhibit similar disability progression: results of an Italian MS registry study (ASPERA).

Author

Chisari CG, Amato MP, Di Sapio A, Foschi M, Iaffaldano P, Inglese M, Fermo SL, Lugaresi A, Lus G, Mascoli N, Montepietra S, Pesci I, Quatrale R, Salemi G, Torri Clerici V, Totaro R, Valentino P, Filippi M, and Patti F

Subjects
Humans, Male, Female, Italy epidemiology, Middle Aged, Adult, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Disability Evaluation, Registries, Disease Progression, Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive physiopathology, Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive diagnostic imaging, Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive epidemiology
Abstract

'Active' and 'non-active' secondary progressive MS (SPMS) have distinct pathophysiological mechanisms and clinical characteristics, but there is still no consensus regarding the frequency of these MS forms in the real-world setting. We aimed to evaluate the frequency of 'active' and 'non-active' SPMS in a large cohort of Italian MS patients and the differences in terms of clinical and MRI characteristics and disease progression. This multicenter study collected data about MS patients who have transitioned to the SP form in the period between 1st January 2014 and 31st December 2019 and followed by the MS centers contributing to the Italian MS Registry. Patients were divided into 'active SPMS' and 'non-active SPMS', based on both reported MRI data and relapse activity in the year before conversion to SPMS. Out of 68,621, 8,316 (12.1%) patients were diagnosed with SPMS. Out of them, 872 (10.5%) were classified into patients with either 'active' or 'non-active' SPMS. A total of 237 were classified into patients with 'active SPMS' (27.2%) and 635 as 'non-active SPMS' (72.8%). 'Non-active SPMS' patients were older, with a longer disease duration compared to those with 'active SPMS'. The percentages of patients showing progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) at 24 months were similar between 'active' and 'non-active' SPMS patients (67 [27.4%] vs 188 [29.6%]; p = 0.60). In the 'active' group, 36 (15.2%) patients showed relapse-associated worsening (RAW). Comparison of the survival curves to EDSS 6 and 7 according to disease activity did not show significant differences (p = 0.68 and p = 0.71). 'Active' and 'non-active' SPMS patients had a similar risk of achieving disability milestones, suggesting that progression is primarily attributed to PIRA and only to a small extent to disease activity., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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3. A comparison of natalizumab and ocrelizumab on disease progression in multiple sclerosis.

Author

Iaffaldano P, Lucisano G, Guerra T, Paolicelli D, Portaccio E, Inglese M, Foschi M, Patti F, Granella F, Romano S, Cavalla P, De Luca G, Gallo P, Bellantonio P, Gallo A, Montepietra S, Di Sapio A, Vianello M, Quatrale R, Spitaleri D, Clerici R, Torri Clerici V, Cocco E, Brescia Morra V, Marfia GA, Boccia VD, Filippi M, Amato MP, and Trojano M

Subjects
Humans, Female, Male, Adult, Middle Aged, Multiple Sclerosis drug therapy, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting drug therapy, Registries, Italy, Natalizumab adverse effects, Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized adverse effects, Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized pharmacology, Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized administration & dosage, Disease Progression, Immunologic Factors adverse effects, Immunologic Factors pharmacology, Immunologic Factors administration & dosage
Abstract

Objective: No direct comparisons of the effect of natalizumab and ocrelizumab on progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) and relapse-associated worsening (RAW) events are currently available. We aimed to compare the risk of achieving first 6 months confirmed PIRA and RAW events and irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4.0 and 6.0 in a cohort of naïve patients treated with natalizumab or ocrelizumab from the Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register., Methods: Patients with a first visit within 1 year from onset, treated with natalizumab or ocrelizumab, and ≥3 visits were extracted. Pairwise propensity score-matched analyses were performed. Risk of reaching the first PIRA, RAW, and EDSS 4.0 and 6.0 events were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to show cumulative probabilities of reaching outcomes., Results: In total, 770 subjects were included (natalizumab = 568; ocrelizumab = 212) and the propensity score-matching retrieved 195 pairs. No RAW events were found in natalizumab group and only 1 was reported in ocrelizumab group. A first PIRA event was reached by 23 natalizumab and 25 ocrelizumab exposed patients; 7 natalizumab- and 10 ocrelizumab-treated patients obtained an irreversible EDSS 4.0, while 13 natalizumab- and 15 ocrelizumab-treated patients reached an irreversible EDSS 6.0. No differences between the two groups were found in the risk (HR, 95%CI) of reaching a first PIRA (1.04, 0.59-1.84; p = 0.88) event, an irreversible EDSS 4.0 (1.23, 0.57-2.66; p = 0.60) and 6.0 (0.93, 0.32-2.68; p = 0.89)., Interpretation: Both medications strongly suppress RAW events and, in the short term, the risk of achieving PIRA events, EDSS 4.0 and 6.0 milestones is not significantly different., (© 2024 The Author(s). Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Neurological Association.)

Published
2024
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4. Progression independent of relapse activity in relapsing multiple sclerosis: impact and relationship with secondary progression.

Author

Portaccio E, Betti M, De Meo E, Addazio I, Pastò L, Razzolini L, Totaro R, Spitaleri D, Lugaresi A, Cocco E, Onofrj M, Di Palma F, Patti F, Maimone D, Valentino P, Torri Clerici V, Protti A, Ferraro D, Lus G, Maniscalco GT, Brescia Morra V, Salemi G, Granella F, Pesci I, Bergamaschi R, Aguglia U, Vianello M, Simone M, Lepore V, Iaffaldano P, Comi G, Filippi M, Trojano M, and Amato MP

Subjects
Humans, Male, Female, Adult, Middle Aged, Registries, Recurrence, Italy epidemiology, Follow-Up Studies, Disease Progression, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting physiopathology, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting epidemiology, Disability Evaluation
Abstract

Objectives: We investigated the occurrence and relative contribution of relapse-associated worsening (RAW) and progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) to confirmed disability accrual (CDA) and transition to secondary progression (SP) in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS)., Methods: Relapsing-onset MS patients with follow-up > / = 5 years (16,130) were extracted from the Italian MS Registry. CDA was a 6-month confirmed increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Sustained disability accumulation (SDA) was a CDA with no EDSS improvement in all subsequent visits. Predictors of PIRA and RAW and the association between final EDSS score and type of CDA were assessed using logistic multivariable regression and multivariable ordinal regression models, respectively., Results: Over 11.8 ± 5.4 years, 16,731 CDA events occurred in 8998 (55.8%) patients. PIRA (12,175) accounted for 72.3% of CDA. SDA occurred in 8912 (73.2%) PIRA and 2583 (56.7%) RAW (p < 0.001). 4453 (27.6%) patients transitioned to SPMS, 4010 (73.2%) out of 5476 patients with sustained PIRA and 443 (24.8%) out of 1790 patients with non-sustained PIRA. In the multivariable ordinal regression analysis, higher final EDSS score was associated with PIRA (estimated coefficient 0.349, 95% CI 0.120-0.577, p = 0.003)., Discussion: In this real-world relapsing-onset MS cohort, PIRA was the main driver of disability accumulation and was associated with higher disability in the long term. Sustained PIRA was linked to transition to SP and could represent a more accurate PIRA definition and a criterion to mark the putative onset of the progressive phase., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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5. Early prediction of unfavorable evolution after a first clinical episode suggestive of multiple sclerosis: the EUMUS score.

Author

Mallucci G, Ferraro OE, Trojano M, Amato MP, Scalfari A, Zaffaroni M, Colombo E, Rigoni E, Iaffaldano P, Portaccio E, Saraceno L, Paolicelli D, Razzolini L, Montomoli C, and Bergamaschi R

Subjects
Humans, Male, Female, Adult, Retrospective Studies, Prognosis, Middle Aged, Young Adult, Multiple Sclerosis diagnostic imaging, Multiple Sclerosis diagnosis, Multiple Sclerosis physiopathology, Disease Progression, Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Abstract

Background: Predicting disease progression in patients with the first clinical episode suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) is crucial for personalized therapeutic approaches. This study aimed to develop the EUMUS score for accurately estimating the risk of early evidence of disease activity and progression (EDA)., Methods: Retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 221 patients with a first clinical MS episode collected from four Italian MS centers. Various variables including socio-demographics, clinical features, cerebrospinal fluid analysis, evoked potentials, and brain MRI were considered. A prognostic multivariate regression model was identified to develop the EUMUS score. The optimal cutoff for predicting the transition from no evidence of disease activity (NEDA3) to EDA was determined. The accuracy of the prognostic model and score were tested in a separate UK MS cohort., Results: After 12 months, 61.54% of patients experienced relapses and/or new MRI lesions. Younger age (OR 0.96, CI 0.93-0.99; p = 0.005), MRI infratentorial lesion(s) at baseline (OR 2.21, CI 1.27-3.87; p = 0.005), positive oligoclonal bands (OR 2.89, CI 1.47-5.69; p = 0.002), and abnormal lower limb somatosensory-evoked potentials (OR 2.77, CI 1.41-5.42; p = 0.003) were significantly associated with increased risk of EDA. The EUMUS score demonstrated good specificity (72%) and correctly classified 80% of patients with EDA in the independent UK cohort., Conclusions: The EUMUS score is a simple and useful tool for predicting MS evolution within 12 months of the first clinical episode. It has the potential to guide personalized therapeutic approaches and aid in clinical decision-making., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.)

Published
2024
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6. Risk of Persistent Disability in Patients With Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis.

Author

Baroncini D, Simone M, Iaffaldano P, Brescia Morra V, Lanzillo R, Filippi M, Romeo M, Patti F, Chisari CG, Cocco E, Fenu G, Salemi G, Ragonese P, Inglese M, Cellerino M, Margari L, Comi G, Zaffaroni M, and Ghezzi A

Subjects
Adolescent, Adult, Age of Onset, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Italy epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Registries, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Young Adult, Disabled Persons, Disease Progression, Multiple Sclerosis diagnosis, Multiple Sclerosis epidemiology
Abstract

Importance: Availability of new disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) and changes of therapeutic paradigms have led to a general improvement of multiple sclerosis (MS) prognosis in adults. It is still unclear whether this improvement also involves patients with pediatric-onset MS (POMS), whose early management is more challenging., Objective: To evaluate changes in the prognosis of POMS over time in association with changes in therapeutic and managing standards., Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective, multicenter, observational study. Data were extracted and collected in May 2019 from the Italian MS Registry, a digital database including more than 59 000 patients. Inclusion criteria were MS onset before age 18 years, diagnosis before January 2014, and disease duration of at least 3 years. Exclusion criteria were primary progressive MS, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of at least 8 one year after onset, unavailability of diagnosis date, and less than 2 EDSS score evaluations. Eligible patients were 4704 patients with POMS. According to these criteria, we enrolled 3198 patients, excluding 1506., Exposures: We compared time to reach disability milestones by epoch of MS diagnosis (<1993, 1993-1999, 2000-2006, and 2007-2013), adjusting for possible confounders linked to EDSS evaluations and clinical disease activity. We then analyzed the difference among the 4 diagnosis epochs regarding demographic characteristics, clinical disease activity at onset, and DMTs management., Main Outcomes and Measures: Disability milestones were EDSS score 4.0 and 6.0, confirmed in the following clinical evaluation and in the last available visit., Results: We enrolled 3198 patients with POMS (mean age at onset, 15.2 years; 69% female; median time to diagnosis, 3.2 years; annualized relapse rate in first 1 and 3 years, 1.3 and 0.6, respectively), with a mean (SD) follow-up of 21.8 (11.7) years. Median survival times to reach EDSS score of 4.0 and 6.0 were 31.7 and 40.5 years. The cumulative risk of reaching disability milestones gradually decreased over time, both for EDSS score of 4.0 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.58-0.83 in 1993-1999; HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.38-0.60 in 2000-2006; and HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.32-0.59 in 2007-2013) and 6.0 (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57-0.90; HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.33-0.60; and HR, 0.30; 0.20-0.46). In later diagnosis epochs, a greater number of patients with POMS were treated with DMTs, especially high-potency drugs, that were given earlier and for a longer period. Demographic characteristics and clinical disease activity at onset did not change significantly over time., Conclusions and Relevance: In POMS, the risk of persistent disability has been reduced by 50% to 70% in recent diagnosis epochs, probably owing to improvement in therapeutic and managing standards.

Published
2021
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7. Disease-modifying drugs can reduce disability progression in relapsing multiple sclerosis.

Author

Amato MP, Fonderico M, Portaccio E, Pastò L, Razzolini L, Prestipino E, Bellinvia A, Tudisco L, Fratangelo R, Comi G, Patti F, De Luca G, Brescia Morra V, Cocco E, Pozzilli C, Sola P, Bergamaschi R, Salemi G, Inglese M, Millefiorini E, Galgani S, Zaffaroni M, Ghezzi A, Salvetti M, Lus G, Florio C, Totaro R, Granella F, Vianello M, Gatto M, Di Battista G, Aguglia U, Logullo FO, Simone M, Lucisano G, Iaffaldano P, and Trojano M

Subjects
Adult, Cohort Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Italy epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting diagnosis, Prospective Studies, Retrospective Studies, Antirheumatic Agents therapeutic use, Disabled Persons, Disease Progression, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting drug therapy, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting epidemiology
Abstract

An ever-expanding number of disease-modifying drugs for multiple sclerosis have become available in recent years, after demonstrating efficacy in clinical trials. In the real-world setting, however, disease-modifying drugs are prescribed in patient populations that differ from those included in pivotal studies, where extreme age patients are usually excluded or under-represented. In this multicentre, observational, retrospective Italian cohort study, we evaluated treatment exposure in three cohorts of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis defined by age at onset: paediatric-onset (≤18 years), adult-onset (18-49 years) and late-onset multiple sclerosis (≥50 years). We included patients with a relapsing-remitting phenotype, ≥5 years follow-up, ≥3 Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) evaluations and a first neurological evaluation within 3 years from the first demyelinating event. Multivariate Cox regression models (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) were used to assess the risk of reaching a first 12-month confirmed disability worsening and the risk of reaching a sustained EDSS of 4.0. The effect of disease-modifying drugs was assessed as quartiles of time exposure. We found that disease-modifying drugs reduced the risk of 12-month confirmed disability worsening, with a progressive risk reduction in different quartiles of exposure in paediatric-onset and adult-onset patients [adjusted hazard ratios in non-exposed versus exposed >62% of the follow-up time: 8.0 (3.5-17.9) for paediatric-onset and 6.3 (4.9-8.0) for adult-onset, P < 0.0001] showing a trend in late-onset patients [adjusted hazard ratio = 1.9 (0.9-4.1), P = 0.07]. These results were confirmed for a sustained EDSS score of 4.0. We also found that relapses were a risk factor for 12-month confirmed disability worsening in all three cohorts, and female sex exerted a protective role in the late-onset cohort. This study provides evidence that sustained exposure to disease-modifying drugs decreases the risk of disability accumulation, seemingly in a dose-dependent manner. It confirms that the effectiveness of disease-modifying drugs is lower in late-onset patients, although still detectable., (© The Author(s) (2020). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Published
2020
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8. Retrospectively acquired cohort study to evaluate the long-term impact of two different treatment strategies on disability outcomes in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RE.LO.DI.MS): data from the Italian MS Register.

Author

Paolicelli D, Lucisano G, Manni A, Avolio C, Bonavita S, Brescia Morra V, Capobianco M, Cocco E, Conte A, De Luca G, De Robertis F, Gasperini C, Gatto M, Gazzola P, Lus G, Iaffaldano A, Iaffaldano P, Maimone D, Mallucci G, Maniscalco GT, Marfia GA, Patti F, Pesci I, Pozzilli C, Rovaris M, Salemi G, Salvetti M, Spitaleri D, Totaro R, Zaffaroni M, Comi G, Amato MP, and Trojano M

Subjects
Adult, Drug Administration Schedule, Female, Fingolimod Hydrochloride administration & dosage, Humans, Immunologic Factors administration & dosage, Interferon beta-1a administration & dosage, Italy, Male, Middle Aged, Retrospective Studies, Disease Progression, Fingolimod Hydrochloride pharmacology, Immunologic Factors pharmacology, Interferon beta-1a pharmacology, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting drug therapy, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting physiopathology, Outcome Assessment, Health Care, Registries, Severity of Illness Index
Abstract

Background: The increase in disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) allows individualization of treatment in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS); however, the long-term impact of different treatment sequences is not well established. This is particularly relevant for MS patients who may need to postpone more aggressive DMD strategies., Objective: To evaluate different therapeutic strategies and their long-term outcomes, measured as relapses and confirmed disability progression (CDP), in MS 'real-world' settings., Methods: Multicentre, observational, retrospectively acquired cohort study evaluating the long-term impact of different treatment strategies on disability outcomes in patients with RMS in the Italian MS Register., Results: We evaluated 1152 RMS-naïve patients after propensity-score adjustment. Patients included were receiving: interferon beta-1a (IFN-β1a) 44 µg switching to fingolimod (FTY; IFN-switchers; n = 97); FTY only (FTY-stayers; n = 157); IFN-β1a only (IFN-stayers; n = 849). CDP and relapses did not differ between FTY-stayers and IFN-switchers [HR (95% CI) 0.99 (0.48-2.04), p = 0.98 and 0.81 (0.42-1.58), p = 0.55, respectively]. However, IFN-stayers showed increased risk of relapses compared with FTY-stayers [HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.00-2.12), p = 0.05]., Conclusion: The ideal treatment option for MS is becoming increasingly complex, with the need to balance benefit and risks. Our results suggest that starting with FTY affects the long-term disease outcome similarly to escalating from IFN-β1a to FTY.

Published
2019
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9. Long-term follow-up of pediatric MS patients starting treatment with injectable first-line agents: A multicentre, Italian, retrospective, observational study.

Author

Baroncini D, Zaffaroni M, Moiola L, Lorefice L, Fenu G, Iaffaldano P, Simone M, Fanelli F, Patti F, D'Amico E, Capobianco M, Bertolotto A, Gallo P, Margoni M, Miante S, Milani N, Amato MP, Righini I, Bellantonio P, Scandellari C, Costantino G, Scarpini E, Bergamaschi R, Mallucci G, Comi G, and Ghezzi A

Subjects
Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Child, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Glatiramer Acetate pharmacology, Humans, Immunologic Factors administration & dosage, Injections, Interferon-beta pharmacology, Italy, Male, Retrospective Studies, Severity of Illness Index, Young Adult, Disease Progression, Immunologic Factors pharmacology, Multiple Sclerosis drug therapy, Outcome Assessment, Health Care
Abstract

Background: Few data are available on very long-term follow-up of pediatric multiple sclerosis (MS) patients treated with disease modifying treatments (DMTs)., Objectives: To present a long-term follow-up of a cohort of Pediatric-MS patients starting injectable first-line agents., Methods: Data regarding treatments, annualized relapse rate (ARR), Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, and serious adverse event were collected. Baseline characteristics were tested in multivariate analysis to identify predictors of disease evolution., Results: In total, 97 patients were followed for 12.5 ± 3.3 years. They started therapy at 13.9 ± 2.1 years, 88 with interferons and 9 with copaxone. During the whole follow-up, 82 patients changed therapy, switching to immunosuppressors/second-line treatment in 58% of cases. Compared to pre-treatment phase, the ARR was significantly reduced during the first treatment (from 3.2 ± 2.6 to 0.7 ± 1.5, p < 0.001), and it remained low during the whole follow-up (0.3 ± 0.2, p < 0.001). At last observation, 40% had disability worsening, but EDSS score remained <4 in 89%. One patient died at age of 23 years due to MS. One case of natalizumab-related progressive multifocal encephalopathy (PML) was recorded. Starting therapy before 12 years of age resulted in a better course of disease in multivariate analysis., Conclusion: Pediatric-MS patients benefited from interferons/copaxone, but the majority had to switch to more powerful drugs. Starting therapy before 12 years of age could lead to a more favorable outcome.

Published
2019
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10. Prognostic indicators in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome.

Author

Iaffaldano P, Simone M, Lucisano G, Ghezzi A, Coniglio G, Brescia Morra V, Salemi G, Patti F, Lugaresi A, Izquierdo G, Bergamaschi R, Cabrera-Gomez JA, Pozzilli C, Millefiorini E, Alroughani R, Boz C, Pucci E, Zimatore GB, Sola P, Lus G, Maimone D, Avolio C, Cocco E, Sajedi SA, Costantino G, Duquette P, Shaygannejad V, Petersen T, Fernández Bolaños R, Paolicelli D, Tortorella C, Spelman T, Margari L, Amato MP, Comi G, Butzkueven H, and Trojano M

Subjects
Adolescent, Age of Onset, Child, Demyelinating Diseases diagnostic imaging, Demyelinating Diseases physiopathology, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Multiple Sclerosis diagnostic imaging, Multiple Sclerosis physiopathology, Prognosis, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Demyelinating Diseases diagnosis, Disease Progression, Multiple Sclerosis diagnosis, Registries
Abstract

Objective: To assess prognostic factors for a second clinical attack and a first disability-worsening event in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome (pCIS) suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients., Methods: A cohort of 770 pCIS patients was followed up for at least 10 years. Cox proportional hazard models and Recursive Partitioning and Amalgamation (RECPAM) tree-regression were used to analyze data., Results: In pCIS, female sex and a multifocal onset were risk factors for a second clinical attack (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 1.06-1.55; 1.42, 1.10-1.84, respectively), whereas disease-modifying drug (DMD) exposure reduced this risk (HR, 95% CI = 0.75, 0.60-0.95). After pediatric onset MS (POMS) diagnosis, age at onset younger than 15 years and DMD exposure decreased the risk of a first Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)-worsening event (HR, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.42-0.83; 0.75, 0.71-0.80, respectively), whereas the occurrence of relapse increased this risk (HR, 95% CI = 5.08, 3.46-7.46). An exploratory RECPAM analysis highlighted a significantly higher incidence of a first EDSS-worsening event in patients with multifocal or isolated spinal cord or optic neuritis involvement at onset in comparison to those with an isolated supratentorial or brainstem syndrome. A Cox regression model including RECPAM classes confirmed DMD exposure as the most protective factor against EDSS-worsening events and relapses as the most important risk factor for attaining EDSS worsening., Interpretation: This work represents a step forward in identifying predictors of unfavorable course in pCIS and POMS and supports a protective effect of early DMD treatment in preventing MS development and disability accumulation in this population. Ann Neurol 2017;81:729-739., (© 2017 American Neurological Association.)

Published
2017
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11. Serum neurofilament light chain levels are increased in patients with a clinically isolated syndrome

Author

Disanto, G1, Adiutori, R2, Dobson, R2, Martinelli, V3, Dalla Costa G3, Runia, T4, Evdoshenko, E5, Thouvenot, E6, Trojano, M7, Norgren, N8, Teunissen, C9, Kappos, L10, Giovannoni, G2, Kuhle, J, Bianchi, L, Topping, J, Bestwick, Jp, Meier, Uc, Lazareva, N, Iaffaldano, P, Direnzo, V, Khademi, M, Piehl, F, Comabella, M, Sombekke, M, Killestein, J, Hegen, H, Rauch, S, D'Alfonso, S, Alvarez-Cermeño, Jc, Kleinová, P, Horáková, D, Roesler, R, Lauda, F, Llufriu, S, Avsar, T, Uygunoglu, U, Altintas, A, Saip, S, Menge, T, Rajda, C, Bergamaschi, R, Moll, N, Khalil, M, Marignier, R, Dujmovic, I, Larsson, H, Malmestrom, C, Scarpini, E, Fenoglio, C, Wergeland, S, Laroni, A, Annibali, V, Romano, S, Martínez, Ad, Carra, A, Salvetti, M, Uccelli, A, Torkildsen, Ø, Myhr, Km, Galimberti, D, Rejdak, K, Lycke, J, Frederiksen, Jl, Drulovic, J, Confavreux, C, Brassat, D, Enzinger, C, Fuchs, S, Bosca, I, Pelletier, J, Picard, C, Colombo, E, Franciotta, D, Derfuss, T, Lindberg, Rl, Yaldizli, Ö, Vécsei, L, Kieseier, Bc, Hartung, Hp, Villoslada, P, Siva, A, Saiz, A, Tumani, H, Havrdová, E, Villar, Lm, Leone, M, Barizzone, N, Deisenhammer, F, Montalban, X, Tintoré, M, Olsson, T, Lehmann, S, Castelnovo, G, Lapin, S, Hintzen, R, Furlan, R, Comi, G, Ramagopalan, Sv., Institut de Génomique Fonctionnelle (IGF), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nîmes (CHU Nîmes), Laboratory Medicine, Amsterdam Neuroscience - Neuroinfection & -inflammation, Disanto, G., Adiutori, R., Dobson, R., Martinelli, V., Dalla Costa, G., Runia, T., Evdoshenko, E., Thouvenot, E., Trojano, M., Norgren, N., Teunissen, C., Kappos, L., Giovannoni, G., Kuhle, J., on behalf of the International ClinicallyIsolated Syndrome Study, Group, and Neurology

Subjects
Male, Pathology, Future studies, Gastroenterology, 0302 clinical medicine, Neurofilament Proteins, Multiple Sclerosi, 0303 health sciences, Clinically isolated syndrome, medicine.diagnostic_test, Medicine (all), Neurofilament Protein, Demyelinating Disease, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Psychiatry and Mental Health, Predictive value of tests, Disease Progression, Biomarker (medicine), [SDV.NEU]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC], Female, Human, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Multiple Sclerosis, Neurofilament light, multiple sclerosis, adult, axons, biomarkers, demyelinating diseases, disease progression, female, follow-up studies, humans, magnetic resonance imaging, male, neurofilament proteins, predictive value of tests, neurology (clinical), psychiatry and mental health, surgery, arts and humanities (miscellaneous), medicine (all), [SDV.MHEP.CHI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Surgery, Axon, Follow-Up Studie, 03 medical and health sciences, Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous), Predictive Value of Tests, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, In patient, MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS, 030304 developmental biology, business.industry, Multiple sclerosis, Magnetic resonance imaging, Biomarker, medicine.disease, Axons, [SDV.MHEP.PSM]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Psychiatrics and mental health, Surgery, Neurology (clinical), business, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Biomarkers, Demyelinating Diseases, Follow-Up Studies
Abstract

International audience; BACKGROUND:Neurofilament light chain (NfL) represents a promising biomarker for axonal injury. We present the first exploratory study on serum NfL in patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and healthy controls.METHODS:We investigated serum NfL levels in 100 patients with CIS with a short conversion interval to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS) (fast converters (FC), median (IQR) conversion time: 110 days (79-139)); 98 patients with non-converting CIS (non-converters (NC), follow-up: 6.5 years (5.3-7.9)); and 92 healthy controls.RESULTS:NfL levels were higher in FC (24.1 pg/mL (13.5-51.8)) and NC (19.3 pg/mL (13.6-35.2)) than in healthy controls (7.9 pg/mL (5.6-17.2)) (OR=5.85; 95% CI 2.63 to 13.02; p = 1.5 × 10(-5) and OR = 7.03; 95% CI 2.85 to 17.34; p = 2.3 × 10(-5), respectively). When grouping FC and NC, increased serum NfL concentration was also associated with increasing numbers of T2 hyperintense MRI lesions (OR = 2.36; 95% CI 1.21 to 4.59; p = 0.011), gadolinium-enhancing lesions (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.13 to 6.41; p=0.026) and higher disability scores (OR = 2.54; 95% CI 1.21 to 5.31; p = 0.013) at CIS diagnosis.CONCLUSIONS:If replicated in future studies, serum NfL may represent a reliable and easily accessible biomarker of early axonal damage in CIS and MS.

Published
2016
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12. Transition to secondary progression in relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis: Definitions and risk factors

Author

Simonetta Galgani, Giuseppe Lucisano, Matilde Inglese, Giacomo Lus, M. Achille, V. Lovato, M. Zaffaroni, V. Brescia Morra, Giuseppe Salemi, Marco Salvetti, Carlo Pozzilli, G. T. Maniscalco, Maria Trojano, Francesco Patti, Diana Ferraro, Massimo Filippi, Maria Pia Amato, Pietro Iaffaldano, Alessandra Lugaresi, G. Marrazzo, Roberto Bergamaschi, G. De Luca, Antonella Conte, Marco Rovaris, F. O. Logullo, G. Comi, Damiano Paolicelli, Eleonora Cocco, Iaffaldano, Pietro, Lucisano, Giuseppe, Patti, Francesco, Brescia Morra, Vincenzo, De Luca, Giovanna, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Zaffaroni, Mauro, Inglese, Matilde, Salemi, Giuseppe, Cocco, Eleonora, Conte, Antonella, Ferraro, Diana, Galgani, Simonetta, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Pozzilli, Carlo, Salvetti, Marco, Lus, Giacomo, Rovaris, Marco, Maniscalco, Giorgia Teresa, Logullo, Francesco Ottavio, Paolicelli, Damiano, Achille, Mariaclara, Marrazzo, Giuseppina, Lovato, Valeria, Comi, Giancarlo, Filippi, Massimo, Amato, Maria Pia, Trojano, Maria, Iaffaldano P., Lucisano G., Patti F., Brescia Morra V., De Luca G., Lugaresi A., Zaffaroni M., Inglese M., Salemi G., Cocco E., Conte A., Ferraro D., Galgani S., Bergamaschi R., Pozzilli C., Salvetti M., Lus G., Rovaris M., Maniscalco G.T., Logullo F.O., Paolicelli D., Achille M., Marrazzo G., Lovato V., Comi G., Filippi M., Amato M.P., Trojano M., Iaffaldano, P., Lucisano, G., Patti, F., Brescia Morra, V., De Luca, G., Lugaresi, A., Zaffaroni, M., Inglese, M., Salemi, G., Cocco, E., Conte, A., Ferraro, D., Galgani, S., Bergamaschi, R., Pozzilli, C., Salvetti, M., Lus, G., Rovaris, M., Maniscalco, G. T., Logullo, F. O., Paolicelli, D., Achille, M., Marrazzo, G., Lovato, V., Comi, G., Filippi, M., Amato, M. P., and Trojano, M.

Subjects
Oncology, medicine.medical_specialty, Relapsing-Remitting, Multiple sclerosis, 03 medical and health sciences, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting, 0302 clinical medicine, Disease registry, Recurrence, Risk Factors, big data, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, data-driven algorithm, Multiple sclerosi, 030212 general & internal medicine, disease registry, prognosis, secondary progressive, Disease Progression, Multiple Sclerosis, Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive, Secondary progressive, Transition (genetics), business.industry, medicine.disease, Chronic Progressive, Neurology, Settore MED/26 - Neurologia, Neurology (clinical), business, prognosi, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract

Background: No uniform criteria for a sensitive identification of the transition from relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) to secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) are available. Objective: To compare risk factors of SPMS using two definitions: one based on the neurologist judgment (ND) and an objective data-driven algorithm (DDA). Methods: Relapsing-onset MS patients ( n = 19,318) were extracted from the Italian MS Registry. Risk factors for SPMS and for reaching irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6.0, after SP transition, were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. Results: SPMS identified by the DDA ( n = 2343, 12.1%) were older, more disabled and with a faster progression to severe disability ( p 40 years, higher baseline EDSS score and a higher number of relapses; the most consistent protective factor was the disease-modifying therapy (DMT) exposure. DMT exposure during SP did not impact the risk of reaching irreversible EDSS 6.0. Conclusion: A DDA definition of SPMS identifies more aggressive progressive patients. DMT exposure reduces the risk of SPMS conversion, but it does not prevent the disability accumulation after the SP transition.

Published
2021

13. Risk of Persistent Disability in Patients With Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis

Author

Paolo Ragonese, Marta Simone, Vincenzo Brescia Morra, Lucia Margari, Giuseppe Salemi, Eleonora Cocco, Massimo Filippi, Mauro Zaffaroni, Damiano Baroncini, Giuseppe Fenu, Matilde Inglese, Francesco Patti, Marzia Romeo, Pietro Iaffaldano, Italian Ms registry, Clara Grazia Chisari, Angelo Ghezzi, Maria Cellerino, Giancarlo Comi, Roberta Lanzillo, Baroncini, Damiano, Simone, Marta, Iaffaldano, Pietro, Brescia Morra, Vincenzo, Lanzillo, Roberta, Filippi, Massimo, Romeo, Marzia, Patti, Francesco, Chisari, Clara Grazia, Cocco, Eleonora, Fenu, Giuseppe, Salemi, Giuseppe, Ragonese, Paolo, Inglese, Matilde, Cellerino, Maria, Margari, Lucia, Comi, Giancarlo, Zaffaroni, Mauro, Ghezzi, Angelo, Baroncini D., Simone M., Iaffaldano P., Brescia Morra V., Lanzillo R., Filippi M., Romeo M., Patti F., Chisari C.G., Cocco E., Fenu G., Salemi G., Ragonese P., Inglese M., Cellerino M., Margari L., Comi G., Zaffaroni M., Ghezzi A., Baroncini, D, Simone, M, Iaffaldano, P, Brescia Morra, V, Lanzillo, R, Filippi, M, Romeo, M, Patti, F, Chisari, C, Cocco, E, Fenu, G, Salemi, G, Ragonese, P, Inglese, M, Cellerino, M, Margari, L, Comi, G, Zaffaroni, M, Ghezzi, A, and Cavaletti, G

Subjects
Male, Registrie, Pediatrics, Adolescent, Adult, Age of Onset, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Italy, Middle Aged, Multiple Sclerosis, Registries, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Young Adult, Disabled Persons, Disease Progression, Risk of Disability, 0302 clinical medicine, Retrospective Studie, Multiple Sclerosi, 030212 general & internal medicine, Original Investigation, Hazard ratio, Confounding, pediatric-onset MS (POMS), therapeutic and managing standards, Settore MED/26 - Neurologia, Disabled Person, Human, medicine.medical_specialty, MEDLINE, Profile of mood states, 03 medical and health sciences, medicine, In patient, Preschool, pediatric-onset MS (POMS), therapeutic and managing standards, Expanded Disability Status Scale, business.industry, Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis, Multiple sclerosis, Risk Factor, medicine.disease, Observational study, Neurology (clinical), business, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract

Importance Availability of new disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) and changes of therapeutic paradigms have led to a general improvement of multiple sclerosis (MS) prognosis in adults. It is still unclear whether this improvement also involves patients with pediatric-onset MS (POMS), whose early management is more challenging. Objective To evaluate changes in the prognosis of POMS over time in association with changes in therapeutic and managing standards. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective, multicenter, observational study. Data were extracted and collected in May 2019 from the Italian MS Registry, a digital database including more than 59 000 patients. Inclusion criteria were MS onset before age 18 years, diagnosis before January 2014, and disease duration of at least 3 years. Exclusion criteria were primary progressive MS, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of at least 8 one year after onset, unavailability of diagnosis date, and less than 2 EDSS score evaluations. Eligible patients were 4704 patients with POMS. According to these criteria, we enrolled 3198 patients, excluding 1506. Exposures We compared time to reach disability milestones by epoch of MS diagnosis (

Published
2021

14. Disease-Modifying Treatments and Time to Loss of Ambulatory Function in Patients with Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Author

Emilio, Portaccio, Mattia, Fonderico, Pietro, Iaffaldano, Luisa, Pastò, Lorenzo, Razzolini, Angelo, Bellinvia, Giovanna, De Luca, Paolo, Ragonese, Francesco, Patti, Vincenzo, Brescia Morra, Eleonora, Cocco, Patrizia, Sola, Matilde, Inglese, Giacomo, Lus, Carlo, Pozzilli, Davide, Maimone, Alessandra, Lugaresi, Paola, Gazzola, Giancarlo, Comi, Ilaria, Pesci, Daniele, Spitaleri, Marta, Rezzonico, Marika, Vianello, Carlo, Avolio, Francesco O, Logullo, Franco, Granella, Marco, Salvetti, Mauro, Zaffaroni, Giuseppe, Lucisano, Massimo, Filippi, Maria, Trojano, Maria Pia, Amato, Alessandra, Protti, Portaccio, E, Fonderico, M, Iaffaldano, P, Pasto, L, Razzolini, L, Bellinvia, A, De Luca, G, Ragonese, P, Patti, F, Brescia Morra, V, Cocco, E, Sola, P, Inglese, M, Lus, G, Pozzilli, C, Maimone, D, Lugaresi, A, Gazzola, P, Comi, G, Pesci, I, Spitaleri, D, Rezzonico, M, Vianello, M, Avolio, C, Logullo, F, Granella, F, Salvetti, M, Zaffaroni, M, Lucisano, G, Filippi, M, Trojano, M, Amato, M, Cavaletti, G, Portaccio, Emilio, Fonderico, Mattia, Iaffaldano, Pietro, Pastò, Luisa, Razzolini, Lorenzo, Bellinvia, Angelo, De Luca, Giovanna, Ragonese, Paolo, Patti, Francesco, Brescia Morra, Vincenzo, Cocco, Eleonora, Sola, Patrizia, Inglese, Matilde, Lus, Giacomo, Pozzilli, Carlo, Maimone, Davide, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Gazzola, Paola, Comi, Giancarlo, Pesci, Ilaria, Spitaleri, Daniele, Rezzonico, Marta, Vianello, Marika, Avolio, Carlo, Logullo, Francesco O, Granella, Franco, Salvetti, Marco, Zaffaroni, Mauro, Lucisano, Giuseppe, Filippi, Massimo, Trojano, Maria, and Amato, Maria Pia

Subjects
Adult, Multiple Sclerosis, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting, Recurrence, Retrospective Studie, Multiple Sclerosi, Disease Progression, Humans, Female, Neurology (clinical), Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive, Retrospective Studies, Human
Abstract

Importance: Except for ocrelizumab, treatment options in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) are lacking. Objective: To investigate the effectiveness of DMTs on the risk of becoming wheelchair dependent in a real-world population of patients with PPMS. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a multicenter, observational, retrospective, comparative effectiveness research study. Data were extracted on November 28, 2018, from the Italian multiple sclerosis register and analyzed from June to December 2021. Mean study follow-up was 11 years. Included in the study cohort were patients with a diagnosis of PPMS and at least 3 years of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) evaluations and 3 years of follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of reaching an EDSS score of 7.0 was assessed through multivariable Cox regression models. Exposures: Patients who received DMT before the outcome were considered treated. DMT was assessed as a time-dependent variable and by class of DMT (moderately and highly effective). Results: From a total of 3298 patients with PPMS, 2633 were excluded because they did not meet the entry criteria for the phase 3, multicenter, randomized, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ocrelizumab in adults with PPMS (ORATORIO) trial. Among the remaining 665 patients (mean [SD] age, 43.0 [10.7] years; 366 female patients [55.0%]), 409 were further selected for propensity score matching (288 treated and 121 untreated patients). In the matched cohort, during the study follow-up, 37% of patients (152 of 409) reached an EDSS score of 7.0 after a mean (SD) follow-up of 10.6 (5.6) years. A higher EDSS score at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.13-1.55; P

Published
2022

15. Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study

Author

Ruth Dobson, P. Kleinova, Tessel F. Runia, H.-P. Hartung, Maria Trojano, A.D. Martinez, Viviana Annibali, Sreeram V. Ramagopalan, Florian Deisenhammer, Mohsen Khademi, Jens Kuhle, Jan Lycke, Mar Tintoré, Ludwig Kappos, Pietro Iaffaldano, Antonio Uccelli, Dana Horakova, Kjell-Morten Myhr, Cecilia Rajda, Konrad Rejdak, Stig Wergeland, Monica Marta, Roberto Furlan, Florian Lauda, Jean Pelletier, Romain Marignier, G. Comi, Giulio Disanto, Romy Roesler, Vita Direnzo, Özgür Yaldizli, N. Moll, Silvia Romano, Sergey V. Lapin, Sylvain Lehmann, Irena Dujmovic, Elio Scarpini, Tomas Olsson, Rogier Q. Hintzen, Raija L.P. Lindberg, E. P. Evdoshenko, Siegrid Fuchs, B. C. Kieseier, Henrik Larsson, Eric Thouvenot, Jonathan P. Bestwick, Maurizio Leone, László Vécsei, S. Saip, Pablo Villoslada, Roberto Bergamaschi, Xavier Montalban, Øivind Torkildsen, José C. Álvarez-Cermeño, Joanne Topping, Albert Saiz, Isabel Bosca, Hayrettin Tumani, Adriana Carrá, Joep Killestein, Sara Llufriu, N. Barizzone, Ute-Christiane Meier, Diego Franciotta, David Brassat, Christian Enzinger, Michael Khalil, Gavin Giovannoni, Timucin Avsar, Scott L. Rauch, Aksel Siva, N. Lazareva, Clas Malmeström, Jette L. Frederiksen, Harald Hegen, Ugur Uygunoglu, Luisa M. Villar, Lucia Bianchi, Marco Salvetti, Tobias Derfuss, Giovanni Castelnovo, Ayse Altintas, Rocco Adiutori, E. Colombo, G. Dalla Costa, Daniela Galimberti, Madeleine H. Sombekke, Vittorio Martinelli, Sandra D'Alfonso, Manuel Comabella, Eva Havrdova, Fredrik Piehl, Charlotte E. Teunissen, Til Menge, Jelena Drulovic, C. Picard, Alice Laroni, Christian Confavreux, Chiara Fenoglio, Neurology, Laboratory Medicine, NCA - Neuroinflamation, Direction des Applications Militaires (DAM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Department of Anatomy and Structural Biology Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine [New York], Department of public health, University of Turin, Cellules souches normales et cancéreuses, Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Neuropsychiatrie : recherche épidémiologique et clinique (PSNREC), Institut de Génomique Fonctionnelle (IGF), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Water Environment Technology, Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], Department of Neurology, A.O.U. Maggiore della Carità, and IRCAD, Novara, Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB), Leibniz Association, Department of Neurology, University of California [San Francisco] (UCSF), University of California-University of California, Center for Neuroimmunology, Service of Neurology, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Université européenne de Bretagne - European University of Brittany (UEB), Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système (IMS), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Azm Center for Biotechnology Research, Agence universitaire de la Francophonie (Beyrouth, Lebanon)-Lebanese University [Beirut] (LU), FOI, Linköping University (LIU), Centro Dino Ferrari [Milano], Università degli Studi di Milano [Milano] (UNIMI)-Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda - Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, IRMP-Louvain, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Techniques de l'Ingénierie Médicale et de la Complexité - Informatique, Mathématiques et Applications, Grenoble - UMR 5525 (TIMC-IMAG), VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF), Dipartimento Ingegneria Aerospaziale 'Lucio Lazzarino' (DIA), University of Pisa - Università di Pisa, International Centre for Hydrology 'Dino Tonini' and Dipartimento IMAGE, Universita degli Studi di Padova, Dept. of Neurology, University Hospital Rigshospitalet, University of California [Berkeley], University of California, Centre de Recherche en Acquisition et Traitement de l'Image pour la Santé (CREATIS), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Department of Immunology, The Weizmann Institute, Anthropologie bio-culturelle, Droit, Ethique et Santé (ADES), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-EFS ALPES MEDITERRANEE-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Etablissement Français du Sang - Alpes-Méditerranée (EFS - Alpes-Méditerranée), Etablissement Français du Sang, Laboratory of Neuroimmunology, IRCCS, Neurological Institute 'C. Mondino', University of Pavia, Pa, University of Pavia, Department of Neurology, Albert Szent-Gyorgyi Clinical Centre, University of Szeged [Szeged], Heinrich Heine Universität Düsseldorf = Heinrich Heine University [Düsseldorf], Centre de résonance magnétique biologique et médicale (CRMBM), Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universitat de Barcelona (UB)-Hospital Clinic, University of Ulm, Department of Neurology, Service Anesthésie et Réanimation [Hôpital Nord - APHM], Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)- Hôpital Nord [CHU - APHM], University of Eastern Piedmont, Department of Medical Sciences, IRCAD, Novara, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital [Barcelona], Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Institut de recherche en biothérapie (IRB), Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Montpellier] (CHRU Montpellier)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Hôpital Universitaire de Bâle, Laboratory of Molecular Virology, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Institute of Experimental Neurology, Division of Neuroscience, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], Blizard Institute of Cell and Molecular Science, Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin (UNITO), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL)-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [San Francisco] (UC San Francisco), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI)-Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda - Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua (Unipd), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Pavia = University of Pavia (UNIPV), University of Oxford, Direction des Applications Militaires ( DAM ), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ), National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton [Southampton], Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Université Montpellier 1 ( UM1 ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ), Neuropsychiatrie : recherche épidémiologique et clinique, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Leibniz-Institute, University of California [San Francisco] ( UCSF ), Université européenne de Bretagne ( UEB ), Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système ( IMS ), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Agence universitaire de la Francophonie (Beyrouth, Lebanon)-Lebanese University [Beirut], Linköping University ( LIU ), Department of Neurological Sciences, Dino Ferrari Center, University of Milan, Fondazione Cà Granda, IRCCS Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy, Università di Bologna [Bologna] ( UNIBO ), Techniques de l'Ingénierie Médicale et de la Complexité - Informatique, Mathématiques et Applications [Grenoble] ( TIMC-IMAG ), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 ( UJF ) -Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology ( Grenoble INP ) -IMAG-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université Grenoble Alpes ( UGA ), Dipartimento Ingegneria Aerospaziale 'Lucio Lazzarino' ( DIA ), Università di Pisa, Universita degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua = Université de Padoue, Educational Testing Service, Graduate School of Education, University of California at Berkeley, Centre de Recherche en Acquisition et Traitement de l'Image pour la Santé ( CREATIS ), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 ( UCBL ), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon ( INSA Lyon ), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées ( INSA ) -Institut National des Sciences Appliquées ( INSA ) -Hospices Civils de Lyon ( HCL ) -Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] ( UJM ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Anthropologie bio-culturelle, Droit, Ethique et Santé ( ADES ), Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -EFS ALPES MEDITERRANEE-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Etablissement Français du Sang - Alpes-Méditerranée ( EFS - Alpes-Méditerranée ), Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf [Düsseldorf], Centre de résonance magnétique biologique et médicale ( CRMBM ), Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille ( APHM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Universitat de Barcelona ( UB ) -Hospital Clinic, Hôpital Nord [CHU - APHM]-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille ( APHM ) -Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ), Institut de recherche en biothérapie ( IRB ), Université Montpellier 1 ( UM1 ) -Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Montpellier] ( CHRU Montpellier ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ), Université Libre de Bruxelles [Bruxelles] ( ULB ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), Kuhle, J., Disanto, G., Dobson, R., Adiutori, R., Bianchi, L., Topping, J., Bestwick, J. P., Meier, U. -C., Marta, M., Dalla Costa, G, Runia, T., Evdoshenko, E., Lazareva, N., Thouvenot, E., Iaffaldano, P., Direnzo, V., Khademi, M., Piehl, F., Comabella, M., Sombekke, M., Killestein, J., Hegen, H., Rauch, S., Dalfonso, S., Alvarez-Cermeno, J. C., Kleinova, P., Horakova, D., Roesler, R., Lauda, F., Llufriu, S., Avsar, T., Uygunoglu, U., Altintas, A., Saip, S., Menge, T., Rajda, C., Bergamaschi, R., Moll, N., Khalil, M., Marignier, R., Dujmovic, I., Larsson, H., Malmestrom, C., Scarpini, E., Fenoglio, C., Wergeland, S., Laroni, A., Annibali, V., Romano, S., Martinez, A. D., Carra, A., Salvetti, M., Uccelli, A., Torkildsen, O., Myhr, K. M., Galimberti, D., Rejdak, K., Lycke, J., Frederiksen, J. L., Drulovic, J., Confavreux, C., Brassat, D., Enzinger, C., Fuchs, S., Bosca, I., Pelletier, J., Picard, C., Colombo, E., Franciotta, D., Derfuss, T., Lindberg, R. L. P., Yaldizli, O., Vecsei, L., Kieseier, B. C., Hartung, H. P., Villoslada, P., Siva, A., Saiz, A., Tumani, H., Havrdova, E., Villar, L. M., Leone, M., Barizzone, N., Deisenhammer, F., Teunissen, C., Montalban, X., Tintore, M., Olsson, T., Trojano, M., Lehmann, S., Castelnovo, G., Lapin, S., Hintzen, R., Kappos, L., Furlan, R., Martinelli, V., Comi, G., Ramagopalan, S. V., and Giovannoni, G.

Subjects
Male, Pathology, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), [SHS.ANTHRO-BIO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Biological anthropology, Gastroenterology, Cohort Studies, chemistry.chemical_compound, 0302 clinical medicine, sclerosis, clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), Vitamin D, 0303 health sciences, Clinically isolated syndrome, Nuclear Proteins, Prognosis, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Neurology, Clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS), Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1), oligoclonal bands (OCBs), Predictive value of tests, Cohort, Disease Progression, Female, Cohort study, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Multiple Sclerosis, clinic study, Risk Assessment, 03 medical and health sciences, Predictive Value of Tests, Internal medicine, medicine, Vitamin D and neurology, Humans, Survival analysis, 030304 developmental biology, business.industry, Multiple sclerosis, Oligoclonal Bands, Endonucleases, medicine.disease, Survival Analysis, chemistry, Immunoglobulin G, [ SHS.ANTHRO-BIO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Biological anthropology, Neurology (clinical), business, Cotinine, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Follow-Up Studies
Abstract

Background and objective: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. Methods: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years’ follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. Results: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71–2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52–2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04–3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98–0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. Conclusions: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.

Published
2015
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