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1. Statistical Downscaling of ERA5 Reanalysis Precipitation over the Complex Terrain of Greece.

Author

Ntagkounakis, Giorgos E., Nastos, Panagiotis T., and Kapsomenakis, Yiannis

Subjects
METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, DOWNSCALING (Climatology), REGRESSION trees, HISTOGRAMS
Abstract

In this study, we present the preliminary results of our effort to construct a new high spatial resolution precipitation database (1 km x 1 km) over Greece, on an annual and monthly basis. A variety of spatial parameters (i.e., latitude, longitude, altitude, aspect, distance from water bodies, among others) and ERA5 reanalysis data were used as independent variables in an algorithm combined with the Regression Kriging with a Histogram-Based Gradient-Boosting Regression Tree. The dependent variable in the algorithm was the gauge data covering most of the area studied. Maps were constructed for the ERA5 reanalysis and the modelled mean precipitation totals on an annual and monthly basis for the 1980-2010 study period. The findings of the analysis show that the applied methodology improves the spatial resolution and distribution of the ERA5 reanalysis precipitation totals over Greece. Furthermore, when comparing the modelled high spatial resolution datasets against ERA5 datasets over the gauge precipitation totals, the model achieved an average R² improvement of 31.7%, with the largest improvement recorded on an annual basis, while the RMSE decreased by 16.6% on average and more than 40% on an annual basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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2. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions.

Author

Paparrizos, Spyridon, Maris, Fotios, and Matzarakis, Andreas

Subjects
*METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, *CLIMATE change, *DOWNSCALING (Climatology), *INTERPOLATION, *SIMULATION methods & models
Abstract

The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann–Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann–Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
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